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The Southern Ocean is rich in highly dynamic mesoscale eddies and substantially modulates global biogeochemical cycles. However, the overall surface and subsurface effects of eddies on the Southern Ocean biogeochemistry have not been quantified observationally at a large scale. Here, we co-locate eddies, identified in the Meta3.2DT satellite altimeter-based product, with biogeochemical Argo floats to determine the effects of eddies on the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), nitrate, and dissolved oxygen concentrations in the upper 1,500 m of the ice-free Southern Ocean, as well as the eddy effects on the carbon fluxes in this region. DIC and nitrate concentrations are lower in anticyclonic eddies (AEs) and increased in cyclonic eddies (CEs), while dissolved oxygen anomalies switch signs above (CEs: positive, AEs: negative) and below the mixed layer (CEs: negative, AEs: positive). We attribute these anomalies primarily to eddy pumping (isopycnal heave), as well as eddy trapping for oxygen. Maximum anomalies in all tracers occur at greater depths in the subduction zone north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) compared to the upwelling region in the ACC, reflecting differences in background vertical structures. Eddy effects on air-sea CO2 exchange have significant seasonal variability, with additional outgassing in CEs in fall (physical process) and additional oceanic uptake in AEs and CEs in spring (biological and physical process). Integrated over the Southern Ocean, AEs contribute ∼0.03± 0.01 Pg C yr-1 (7 ±2% ) to the Southern Ocean carbon uptake, and CEs offset this by ∼0.01± 0.01 Pg C yr-1 (2 ±2% ). These findings underscore the importance of considering eddy impacts in observing networks and climate models.

Abstract: Over 9 years of hourly surface current data from high‐frequency radar (HFR) off the US West Coast are analyzed using a Bayesian least‐squares fit for tidal components. The spatial resolution and geographic extent of HFR data allow us to assess the spatial structure of the non‐phase‐locked component of the tide. In the frequency domain, the record length and sampling rate allow resolution of discrete tidal lines corresponding to well‐known constituents and the near‐tidal broadband elevated continuum resulting from amplitude and phase modulation of the tides, known as cusps. The FES2014 tide model is used to remove the barotropic component of tidal surface currents in order to evaluate its contribution to the phase‐locked variance and spatial structure. The mean time scale of modulation is 243 days for the M2 constituent and 181 days for S2, with overlap in their range of values. These constituents' modulated amplitudes are significantly correlated in several regions, suggesting shared forcing mechanisms. Within the frequency band M2 ± 5 cycles per year, an average of 48% of energy is not at the phase‐locked frequency. When we remove the barotropic model, this increases to 64%. In both cases there is substantial regional variability. This indicates that a large fraction of tidal energy is not easily predicted (e.g., for satellite altimeter applications). The spatial autocorrelation of the non‐phase‐locked variance fraction drops to zero over a distance of 150 km, a scale that is comparable to the swath width of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography altimeter.

Abstract: West Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss is a major source of uncertainty in sea level projections. The primary driver of this melting is oceanic heat from Circumpolar Deep Water originating offshore in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Yet, in assessing melt variability, open ocean processes have received considerably less attention than those governing cross-shelf exchange. Here, we use Lagrangian particle release experiments in an ocean model to investigate the pathways by which Circumpolar Deep Water moves toward the continental shelf across the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. We show that Ross Gyre expansion, linked to wind and sea ice variability, increases poleward heat transport along the gyre’s eastern limb and the relative fraction of transport toward the Amundsen Sea. Ross Gyre variability, therefore, influences oceanic heat supply toward the West Antarctic continental slope. Understanding remote controls on basal melt is necessary to predict the ice sheet response to anthropogenic forcing.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), responsible for extreme weather conditions, are mid-latitude systems that can cause significant damage to coastal areas. While forecasting ARs beyond two weeks remains a challenge, past research suggests potential benefits may come from properly accounting for the changes in sea surface temperature (SST) through air-sea interactions. In this paper, we investigate the impact of ARs on SST over the North Pacific by analyzing 25 years of ocean reanalysis data using an SST budget equation. We show that in the region of strong ocean modification, ocean dynamics can offset over 100% of the anomalous SST warming that would otherwise arise from atmospheric forcing. Among all ocean processes, ageostrophic advection and vertical mixing (diffusion and entrainment) are the most important factors in modifying the SST tendency response. The SST tendency response to ARs varies spatially. For example, in coastal California, the driver of enhanced SST warming is the reduction in ageostrophic advection due to anomalous southerly winds. Moreover, there is a large region where the SST shows a warming response to ARs due to the overall reduction in the total clouds and subsequent increase in total incoming shortwave radiation.

AbstractAtmospheric rivers (ARs) result in precipitation over land and ocean. Rainfall on the ocean can generate a buoyant layer of freshwater that impacts exchanges between the surface and the mixed layer. These “fresh lenses” are important for weather and climate because they may impact the ocean stratification at all time scales. Here we use in situ ocean data, collocated with AR events, and a one-dimensional configuration of a general circulation model, to investigate the impact of AR precipitation on surface ocean salinity in the California Current System (CCS) on seasonal and event-based time scales. We find that at coastal and onshore locations the CCS freshens through the rainy season due to AR events, and years with higher AR activity are associated with a stronger freshening signal. On shorter time scales, model simulations suggest that events characteristic of CCS ARs can produce salinity changes that are detectable by ocean instruments (≥0.01 psu). Here, the surface salinity change depends linearly on rain rate and inversely on wind speed. Higher wind speeds (U > 8 m s−1) induce mixing, distributing freshwater inputs to depths greater than 20 m. Lower wind speeds (U ≤ 8 m s−1) allow freshwater lenses to remain at the surface. Results suggest that local precipitation is important in setting the freshwater seasonal cycle of the CCS and that the formation of freshwater lenses should be considered for identifying impacts of atmospheric variability on the upper ocean in the CCS on weather event time scales.Significance StatementAtmospheric rivers produce large amounts of rainfall. The purpose of this study is to understand how this rain impacts the surface ocean in the California Current System on seasonal and event time scales. Our results show that a greater precipitation over the rainy season leads to a larger decrease in salinity over time. On shorter time scales, these atmospheric river precipitation events commonly produce a surface salinity response that is detectable by ocean instruments. This salinity response depends on the amount of rainfall and the wind speed. In general, higher wind speeds will cause the freshwater input from rain to mix deeper, while lower wind speeds will have reduced mixing, allowing a layer of freshwater to persist at the surface.

AbstractA novel tidal analysis package (red_tide) has been developed to characterize low-amplitude non-phase-locked tidal energy and dominant tidal peaks in noisy, irregularly sampled, or gap-prone time series. We recover tidal information by expanding conventional harmonic analysis to include prior information and assumptions about the statistics of a process, such as the assumption of a spectrally colored background, treated as nontidal noise. This is implemented using Bayesian maximum posterior estimation and assuming Gaussian prior distributions. We utilize a hierarchy of test cases, including synthetic data and observations, to evaluate this method and its relevance to analysis of data with a tidal component and an energetic nontidal background. Analysis of synthetic test cases shows that the methodology provides robust tidal estimates. When the background energy spectrum is nearly spectrally white, red_tide results replicate results from ordinary least squares (OLS) commonly used in other tidal packages. When background spectra are red (a spectral slope of −2 or steeper), red_tide’s estimates represent a measurable improvement over OLS. The approach highlights the presence of tidal variability and low-amplitude constituents in observations by allowing arbitrarily configurable fitted frequencies and prior statistics that constrain solutions. These techniques have been implemented in MATLAB in order to analyze tidal data with non-phase-locked components and an energetic background that pose challenges to the commonly used OLS approach.

AbstractSurface gravity waves play a major role in the exchange of momentum, heat, energy, and gases between the ocean and the atmosphere. The interaction between currents and waves can lead to variations in the wave direction, frequency, and amplitude. In the present work, we use an ensemble of synthetic currents to force the wave model WAVEWATCH III and assess the relative impact of current divergence and vorticity in modifying several properties of the waves, including direction, period, directional spreading, and significant wave height Hs. We find that the spatial variability of Hs is highly sensitive to the nature of the underlying current and that refraction is the main mechanism leading to gradients of Hs. The results obtained using synthetic currents were used to interpret the response of surface waves to realistic currents by running an additional set of simulations using the llc4320 MITgcm output in the California Current region. Our findings suggest that wave parameters could be used to detect and characterize strong gradients in the velocity field, which is particularly relevant for the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite as well as several proposed satellite missions.

Abstract: Float trajectories are simulated using Lagrangian particle tracking software and eddy‐permitting ocean model output from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Phase II (ECCO2) project. We find that Argo‐like particles near strong mean flows tend to accelerate while at their parking depth. This effect is pronounced in western boundary current regions and in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current system. The acceleration is associated with eddy‐mean flow interactions: Eddies converge particles toward regions with stronger mean currents. Particles do not accelerate when they are advected by the eddy or mean flow alone. During a 9‐day parking period, speed increases induced by the eddy‐mean flow interactions can be as large as 2 cm s−1, representing roughly 10% of the mean velocity. If unaccounted for, this acceleration could bias velocities inferred from observed Argo float trajectories.

Abstract: Proposals from multiple nations to deploy air–sea flux moorings in the Southern Ocean have raised the question of how to optimize the placement of these moorings in order to maximize their utility, both as contributors to the network of observations assimilated in numerical weather prediction and also as a means to study a broad range of processes driving air–sea fluxes. This study, developed as a contribution to the Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS), proposes criteria that can be used to determine mooring siting to obtain best estimates of net air–sea heat flux (Qnet). Flux moorings are envisioned as one component of a multiplatform observing system, providing valuable in situ point time series measurements to be used alongside satellite data and observations from autonomous platforms and ships. Assimilating models (e.g., numerical weather prediction and reanalysis products) then offer the ability to synthesize the observing system and map properties between observations. This paper develops a framework for designing mooring array configurations to maximize the independence and utility of observations. As a test case, within the meridional band from 35° to 65°S we select eight mooring sites optimized to explain the largest fraction of the total variance (and thus to ensure the least variance of residual components) in the area south of 20°S. Results yield different optimal mooring sites for low-frequency interannual heat fluxes compared with higher-frequency subseasonal fluxes. With eight moorings, we could explain a maximum of 24.6% of high-frequency Qnet variability or 44.7% of low-frequency Qnet variability.

Abstract: Seasonal sea ice retreat is known to stimulate Southern Ocean phytoplankton blooms, but depth‐resolved observations of their evolution are scarce. Autonomous float measurements collected from 2015–2019 in the eastern Weddell Sea show that spring bloom initiation is closely linked to sea ice retreat timing. The appearance and persistence of a rare open‐ocean polynya over the Maud Rise seamount in 2017 led to an early bloom and high annual net community production. Widespread early ice retreat north of Maud Rise in 2017, however, had a similar effect, suggesting that the polynya most impacted the timing of bloom initiation. Still, higher productivity rates at Maud Rise relative to the surrounding region are observed in all years, likely supported by flow‐topography interactions. The longer growing season in 2017–2018 also allowed for separation of distinct spring and fall bloom signals, the latter of which was primarily subsurface and associated with mixed‐layer deepening.

Abstract: Conductivity‐temperature‐depth data from instrumented seals of the Marine Mammals Exploring Oceans from Pole to Pole program are analyzed to characterize the water masses and the seasonality of the marginal seas. Bottom temperatures are found to be in a cold regime in Dense Shelf Water (DSW) producing regions, identified in this study as the southern Weddell Sea, Cape Darnley, Prydz Bay, Adélie Coast, and the western Ross Sea. DSW occupies the bottom of the Weddell and Ross Sea continental shelves throughout the year: Production of DSW and vertical overturning occur only during the winter. In the other DSW producing regions, salinity is reduced more markedly during the summer. We identify the Princess Martha Coast, Leopold and Astrid Coast, and the Knox Coast as Low Salinity Shelf Water producing regions, where modified Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) intrudes onto the continental shelf, reaching areas close to the ice shelves keeping the bottom temperatures in an intermediate regime. The Prince Harald Coast, the Amundsen Sea, and the Bellingshausen Sea experience more intense CDW intrusion, which keeps them in a warm regime year‐round. CDW layer thicknesses correlate with the meridional winds over the shelf sea, and with the zonal winds at the slope, while DSW layer thicknesses correlate with the meridional winds over the shelf seas and the curl of the wind stress over the slope. Locations of DSW on the continental shelf coincide with an absence of warmer CDW near the ice shelves.

Abstract: The Scotia Sea is the site of one of the largest spring phytoplankton blooms in the Southern Ocean. Past studies suggest that shelf‐iron inputs are responsible for the high productivity in this region, but the physical mechanisms that initiate and sustain the bloom are not well understood. Analysis of profiling float data from 2002 to 2017 shows that the Scotia Sea has an unusually shallow mixed‐layer depth during the transition from winter to spring, allowing the region to support a bloom earlier in the season than elsewhere in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. We compare these results to the mixed‐layer depth in the 1/6° data‐assimilating Southern Ocean State Estimate and then use the model output to assess the physical balances governing mixed‐layer variability in the region. Results indicate the importance of lateral advection of Weddell Sea surface waters in setting the stratification. A Lagrangian particle release experiment run backward in time suggests that Weddell outflow constitutes 10% of the waters in the upper 200 m of the water column in the bloom region. This dense Weddell water subducts below the surface waters in the Scotia Sea, establishing a sharp subsurface density contrast that cannot be overcome by wintertime convection. Profiling float trajectories are consistent with the formation of Taylor columns over the region's complex bathymetry, which may also contribute to the unique stratification. Furthermore, biogeochemical measurements from 2016 and 2017 bloom events suggest that vertical exchange associated with this Taylor column enhances productivity by delivering nutrients to the euphotic zone.

Abstract: The top 2000 m of the Southern Ocean has freshened and warmed over recent decades. However, the high-latitude (south of 50°S) southeast Pacific was observed to be cooler and fresher in the years 2008–10 compared to 2005–07 over a wide depth range including surface, mode, and intermediate waters. The causes and impacts of this event are analyzed using the ocean–sea ice data-assimilating Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) and observationally based products. In 2008–10, a strong positive southern annular mode coincided with a negative El Niño–Southern Oscillation and a deep Amundsen Sea low. Enhanced meridional winds drove strong sea ice export from the eastern Ross Sea, bringing large amounts of ice to the Amundsen Sea ice edge. In 2008, together with increased precipitation, this introduced a strong freshwater anomaly that was advected eastward by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), mixing along the way. This anomaly entered the ocean interior not only as Antarctic Intermediate Water, but also as lighter Southeast Pacific Subantarctic Mode Water (SEPSAMW). A numerical particle release experiment carried out in SOSE showed that the Ross Sea sector was the dominant source of particles reaching the SEPSAMW formation region. This suggests that large-scale climate fluctuations can induce strong interannual variability of volume and properties of SEPSAMW. These fluctuations act at different time scales: instantaneously via direct forcing and also lagged over advective time scales of several years from upstream regions.

The Southern Ocean (SO) plays a crucial role in the process of sequestering heat and carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and transferring them to the deep ocean. This process is intricately linked to the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) and Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW), which are pivotal components of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) and have a substantial impact on the global climate balance. AAIW and SAMW take shape in specific regions of the Southern Ocean due to the influence of strong winds, buoyancy fluxes, and their effects, such as convection, the development of thick mixed layers, and wind‐driven subduction. These water masses subsequently flow northward, contributing to the ventilation of the intermediate layers within the subtropical gyres. In this study, our focus lies on investigating the regional aspects of AAIW and SAMW transformation in CMIP6 models. We accomplish this by analyzing the relationship between the meridional transport of these water masses and air‐sea fluxes, particularly Ekman pumping, freshwater fluxes, and heat fluxes. Our findings reveal that the highest transformation rates occur in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean, with notable values also observed in the southeast Pacific and south of Africa. Additionally, we assess the potential changes in these formation regions under future scenarios projected for the end of the 21st century. Although the patterns of formation regions remain consistent, there is a significant decrease in the transformation process. Plain Language Summary: The ocean plays a fundamental role in the climate system, serving as a vital reservoir for storing and distributing substantial amounts of heat and carbon. Within this context, the Southern Ocean assumes a critical role, as it is the site where significant volumes of water undergo deepening processes, ultimately giving rise to distinct water masses that occupy the intermediate and deep layers of the ocean. This study employs a suite of climate models to delve into the intricacies of the system governing the formation and transformation of specific water masses, namely Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) and Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW). Our primary objective is to identify the regions within which these water masses originate, comprehend their variability, and assess potential impacts in a future scenario influenced by climate change. Most climate models accurately replicate these formation areas. Moreover, consistent with observations, climate models depict the northward transport of AAIW/SAMW occurring primarily on the western side of the ocean basins. However, concerning future scenarios, we observe a reduction in the volume of water being formed in the Southern Ocean, signifying potential changes in the dynamics of these critical water masses. Key Points: Intermediate water masses are relatively accurately spatially transformed in the climate modelsIntermediate water masses are primarily transported along the boundaries of the ocean basinsThe transformation of water masses decreases in the future climate change scenarios [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractArgo float trajectories are simulated in the southwest Pacific basin (25°–45°S, 170°E–165°W) using velocity fields from a 1/12° Southern Ocean model and a Lagrangian particle tracking model programmed to represent the vertical motions of profiling Argo floats. The system is applied to simulate both core Argo floats (typically parked at 1000-m depth and profiling to 2000-m depth) and Deep Argo floats (parked 500 m above the seafloor). The goal is to estimate probability density functions (PDFs) predicting future float positions. Differences are expected in the trajectory statistics, largely because of limitations in the temporal and spatial resolution of the model fields and uncertainties associated with a random walk component included in the particle advection scheme to represent this unresolved variability. Nonetheless, the core Argo float displacements over ~100-day time intervals are mostly consistent with the derived PDFs, particularly in regions with stable midlayer flows. For the Deep Argo floats, which are released into the open ocean and parked near the bottom, the simulations predict an average total displacement of less than 50 km within 100 days, in good agreement with the Deep Argo floats deployed as part of a pilot study. The study explores both the representativeness and the predictability of float displacements, with an aim to contribute to planning for the float observing system.

The ability to construct nitrate maps in the Southern Ocean (SO) from sparse observations is important for marine biogeochemistry research, as it offers a geographical estimate of biological productivity. The goal of this study is to infer the skill of constructed SO nitrate maps using varying data sampling strategies. The mapping method uses multivariate empirical orthogonal functions (MEOFs) constructed from nitrate, salinity, and potential temperature (N-S-T) fields from a biogeochemical general circulation model simulation Synthetic N-S-T datasets are created by sampling modeled N-S-T fields in specific regions, determined either by random selection or by selecting regions over a certain threshold of nitrate temporal variances. The first 500 MEOF modes, determined by their capability to reconstruct the original N-S-T fields, are projected onto these synthetic N-S-T data to construct time-varying nitrate maps. Normalized root-mean-square errors (NRMSEs) are calculated between the constructed nitrate maps and the original modeled fields for different sampling strategies. The sampling strategy according to nitrate variances is shown to yield maps with lower NRMSEs than mapping adopting random sampling. A k-means cluster method that considers the N-S-T combined variances to identify key regions to insert data is most effective in reducing the mapping errors. These findings are further quantified by a series of mapping error analyses that also address the significance of data sampling density. The results provide a sampling framework to prioritize the deployment of biogeochemical Argo floats for constructing nitrate maps.

Abstract: Argo float trajectories are simulated in the southwest Pacific basin (25°–45°S, 170°E–165°W) using velocity fields from a 1/12° Southern Ocean model and a Lagrangian particle tracking model programmed to represent the vertical motions of profiling Argo floats. The system is applied to simulate both core Argo floats (typically parked at 1000-m depth and profiling to 2000-m depth) and Deep Argo floats (parked 500 m above the seafloor). The goal is to estimate probability density functions (PDFs) predicting future float positions. Differences are expected in the trajectory statistics, largely because of limitations in the temporal and spatial resolution of the model fields and uncertainties associated with a random walk component included in the particle advection scheme to represent this unresolved variability. Nonetheless, the core Argo float displacements over ~100-day time intervals are mostly consistent with the derived PDFs, particularly in regions with stable midlayer flows. For the Deep Argo floats, which are released into the open ocean and parked near the bottom, the simulations predict an average total displacement of less than 50 km within 100 days, in good agreement with the Deep Argo floats deployed as part of a pilot study. The study explores both the representativeness and the predictability of float displacements, with an aim to contribute to planning for the float observing system.

Abstract: Surface waves are crucial for the dynamics of the upper ocean not only because they mediate exchanges of momentum, heat, energy, and gases between the ocean and the atmosphere, but also because they determine the sea state. The surface wave field in a given region is set by the combination of local and remote forcing. The present work characterizes the seasonal variability of the deep water surface wave field in the California Current region, as retrieved from over two decades of satellite altimetry data combined with wave buoys and wave model hindcast (WaveWatch III). In particular, the extent to which the local wind modulates the variability of the significant wave height, peak period, and peak direction is assessed. During spring/summer, regional‐scale wind events of up to 10 m/s are the dominant forcing for waves off the California coast, leading to relatively short‐period waves (8–10 s) that come predominantly from the north‐northwest. The wave climatology throughout the California Current region shows average significant wave heights exceeding 2 m during most of the year, which may have implications for the planning and retrieval methods of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission.

AbstractThe Kerguelen Plateau is a major topographic feature in the Southern Ocean. Located in the Indian sector and spanning nearly 2000 km in the meridional direction from the polar to the subantarctic region, it deflects the eastward-flowing Antarctic Circumpolar Current and influences the physical circulation and biogeochemistry of the Southern Ocean. The Kerguelen Plateau is known to govern the local dynamics, but its impact on the large-scale ocean circulation has not been explored. By comparing global ocean numerical simulations with and without the Kerguelen Plateau, this study identifies two major Kerguelen Plateau effects: 1) The plateau supports a local pressure field that pushes the Antarctic Circumpolar Current northward. This process reduces the warm-water transport from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean. 2) The plateau-generated pressure field shields the Weddell Gyre from the influence of the warmer subantarctic and subtropical waters. The first effect influences the strength of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the Agulhas leakage, both of which are important elements in the global thermohaline circulation. The second effect results in a zonally asymmetric response of the subpolar gyres to Southern Hemisphere wind forcing.

The Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) on the West Antarctic coastline has been identified as a region of accelerated glacial melting. A Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) is analyzed over the 2005–2010 time period in the Amundsen Sea region. The SOSE oceanic heat budget reveals that the contribution of parameterized small-scale mixing to the heat content of the ASE waters is small compared to advection and local air-sea heat flux, both of which contribute significantly to the heat content of the ASE waters. Above the permanent pycnocline, the local air-sea flux dominates the heat budget and is controlled by seasonal changes in sea ice coverage. Overall, between 2005 and 2010, the model shows a net heating in the surface above the pycnocline within the ASE. Sea water below the permanent pycnocline is isolated from the influence of air-sea heat fluxes, and thus, the divergence of heat advection is the major contributor to increased oceanic heat content of these waters. Oceanic transport of mass and heat into the ASE is dominated by the cross-shelf input and is primarily geostrophic below the permanent pycnocline. Diagnosis of the time-mean SOSE vorticity budget along the continental shelf slope indicates that the cross-shelf transport is sustained by vorticity input from the localized wind-stress curl over the shelf break.

Passive tracers are advected in a Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) to map the pathways of Agulhas waters, with a focus on determining where the Agulhas waters intrude into the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Results show that Agulhas waters spread into all three ocean basins within 3 years of release. After leaving the African continent, the mean Agulhas water pathway tilts northwest toward the South Atlantic and southeast toward the ACC. The majority (from 60% to 100% depending on specific water mass) of the Agulhas waters stay in the South Indian Ocean north of the Sub-Antarctic Front. From 10 to 28% enters the South Atlantic Ocean through the boundary current along the southern tip of South Africa and via Agulhas rings in the retroflection region. Up to 12% of intermediate depth Agulhas waters enter the ACC. Most of the tracer transport into the ACC occurs just downstream of the Kerguelen Plateau, which clearly demonstrates the importance of topography in elevating cross-frontal exchange. Agulhas waters also contribute to Sub-Antarctic Mode Water formation in the Southeast Indian Ocean by lateral advection. The surface Agulhas waters are preconditioned by strong surface buoyancy loss before turning into mode water, while the intermediate Agulhas waters are advected to the mode water formation region along isopycnals before being drawn into the mixed layer. Key Points The pathways of Agulhas waters are mapped using passive tracer in SOSE Agulhas waters can be mixed into the SEISAMW and ACC Cross-ACC mixing is aggrandized by topography © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Coupled processes and associated subsurface dynamics near the eastern edge of the Indo/western Pacific (WP) Warm Pool are important for air‐sea interactions involved in tropical Pacific dynamics. We seek to shed light on the physical mechanisms governing air‐sea interactions in the region and the impacts of their biases in models. In this study, we use the Ocean ReAnalysis System 5 (ORAS5) to identify mean‐state biases in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) with a particular focus on upper ocean properties and air‐sea interaction processes. We show that the CESM2 has warm and fresh surface biases in the tropical Pacific Ocean, a barrier layer that is too thin in the WP, and an isothermal layer depth (ILD) that is too deep in the eastern Pacific (EP). These biases impact air‐sea interaction processes involved in El Niño development. We compare the strong El Niño events in ORAS5 and CESM2 and show that biases in barrier layer thickness in the WP and in ILD in the EP are significant before the onset of the El Niño events. These biases then influence vertical mixing and entrainment processes, resulting in mixed layer cooling biases. Biases in the sea surface temperature seasonal cycle in the CESM2 also influence the development of the El Niño. We emphasize how the El Niño progression in models can be influenced by its sensitivity to the mean state biases in both subsurface ocean structure and seasonal cycle through local as well as the large‐scale physical processes. Plain Language Summary: The western tropical Pacific has warm ocean surface temperatures that extend to over 100 m depth due to the prevailing trade winds. In contrast, the eastern tropical Pacific has cold ocean surface temperatures due to the upwelling of cold water from below. Changes to the trade winds can lead to changes in these temperatures and the whole ocean‐atmosphere coupled system. We shed light on the important physical processes that govern the ocean‐atmosphere interactions in the western tropical Pacific and how models have limitations in representing some of the processes, which potentially leads to errors in the simulation of important climate events such as El Niño. We show that the Community Earth System Model, a widely used global climate model, has warmer and fresher ocean surface waters compared to observations in this region which then influences the ocean‐atmosphere interactions adversely in this region. We also show that the so‐called "barrier" layer, which restricts the cold, deep water from reaching the surface when mixing occurs, is too thin in the climate model, which significantly hinders the model from reproducing the observed evolution of large El Niño events. Key Points: Coupled processes and subsurface dynamics near the eastern edge of the western Pacific (WP) Warm Pool are important for air‐sea interactionsThe CESM2 has warm and fresh surface biases in the tropical Pacific Ocean, a too thin barrier layer bias in WPBarrier layer thickness biases in the west Pacific and isothermal layer depth biases in east influence the development of El Niño [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability to construct nitrate maps in the Southern Ocean (SO) from sparse observations is important for marine biogeochemistry research, as it offers a geographical estimate of biological productivity. The goal of this study is to infer the skill of constructed SO nitrate maps using varying data sampling strategies. The mapping method uses multivariate empirical orthogonal functions (MEOFs) constructed from nitrate, salinity, and potential temperature (N-S-T) fields from a biogeochemical general circulation model simulation Synthetic N-S-T datasets are created by sampling modeled N-S-T fields in specific regions, determined either by random selection or by selecting regions over a certain threshold of nitrate temporal variances. The first 500 MEOF modes, determined by their capability to reconstruct the original N-S-T fields, are projected onto these synthetic N-S-T data to construct time-varying nitrate maps. Normalized root-mean-square errors (NRMSEs) are calculated between the constructed nitrate maps and the original modeled fields for different sampling strategies. The sampling strategy according to nitrate variances is shown to yield maps with lower NRMSEs than mapping adopting random sampling. A k-means cluster method that considers the N-S-T combined variances to identify key regions to insert data is most effective in reducing the mapping errors. These findings are further quantified by a series of mapping error analyses that also address the significance of data sampling density. The results provide a sampling framework to prioritize the deployment of biogeochemical Argo floats for constructing nitrate maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Argo float trajectories are simulated in the southwest Pacific basin (25°-45°S, 170°E-165°W) using velocity fields from a 1/12° Southern Ocean model and a Lagrangian particle tracking model programmed to represent the vertical motions of profiling Argo floats. The system is applied to simulate both core Argo floats (typically parked at 1000-m depth and profiling to 2000-m depth) and Deep Argo floats (parked 500 m above the seafloor). The goal is to estimate probability density functions (PDFs) predicting future float positions. Differences are expected in the trajectory statistics, largely because of limitations in the temporal and spatial resolution of the model fields and uncertainties associated with a random walk component included in the particle advection scheme to represent this unresolved variability. Nonetheless, the core Argo float displacements over ~ 100-day time intervals are mostly consistent with the derived PDFs, particularly in regions with stable midlayer flows. For the Deep Argo floats, which are released into the open ocean and parked near the bottom, the simulations predict an average total displacement of less than 50 km within 100 days, in good agreement with the Deep Argo floats deployed as part of a pilot study. The study explores both the representativeness and the predictability of float displacements, with an aim to contribute to planning for the float observing system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A coupled ice-ocean eddy-permitting Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) for 2008-10 is used to describe and quantify the processes forming and destroying water in the Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) density range ( σ θ = 26.7-27.2 kg m−3). All the terms in the temperature and salinity equations have been diagnosed to obtain a three-dimensional and time-varying volume budget for individual isopycnal layers. This study finds that air-sea buoyancy fluxes, diapycnal mixing, advection, and storage are all important to the SAMW volume budget. The formation and destruction of water in the SAMW density range occurs over a large latitude range because of the seasonal migration of the outcrop window. The strongest formation is by wintertime surface ocean heat loss occurring equatorward of the Subantarctic Front. Spring and summertime formation occur in the polar gyres through the freshening of water with σ θ > 27.2 kg m−3, with an important contribution from sea ice melt. Further buoyancy gain by heating is accomplished only after these waters have already been transformed into the SAMW density range. The spatially integrated and time-averaged SAMW formation rate in the ocean surface layer is 7.9 Sverdrups (Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) by air-sea buoyancy fluxes and 8.8 Sv by diapycnal mixing, and it is balanced by advective export into the interior ocean. Maps show that these average rates are the result of highly variable processes with strong cancellation in both space and time, revealing the complexity of water mass transformation in the three-dimensional Southern Ocean overturning circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]