Search

Description, Subpolar Atlantic dynamics drive Arctic climate at the onset of the 20th century., The recent expansion of Atlantic waters into the Arctic Ocean represents undisputable evidence of the rapid changes occurring in this region. Understanding the past variability of this “Atlantification” is thus crucial in providing a longer perspective on the modern Arctic changes. Here, we reconstruct the history of Atlantification along the eastern Fram Strait during the past 800 years using precisely dated paleoceanographic records based on organic biomarkers and benthic foraminiferal data. Our results show rapid changes in water mass properties that commenced in the early 20th century—several decades before the documented Atlantification by instrumental records. Comparison with regional records suggests a poleward expansion of subtropical waters since the end of the Little Ice Age in response to a rapid hydrographic reorganization in the North Atlantic. Understanding of this mechanism will require further investigations using climate model simulations.

We examine ocean changes in response to changes in paleogeography from the Cretaceous to present in an intermediate complexity model and in the fully coupled CCSM3 model. Greenhouse gas concentrations are kept constant to allow a focus on effects arising from changing continental configurations. We find consistent and significant geography-related Cenozoic cooling arising from the opening of Southern Ocean (SO) gateways. Both models show significant deep ocean cooling arising from tectonic evolution alone. Simulations employing continental configurations associated with greenhouse climates, namely the Turonian and the Eocene simulations, systematically exhibit warm deep ocean temperatures at elevated pCO(2) close to 10 degrees C. In contrast, continental configurations associated with (later) icehouse climates are associated with cooler deep ocean temperatures at identical pCO(2), arising from a progressive strengthening of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This suggests that a component of the Cenozoic benthic cooling trend recorded in oxygen isotopes could arise directly from changes in continental configuration, and so be partially decoupled from the Cenozoic greenhouse gas history. In this paper we will present our model results against the background of an extensive review of previous work on ocean gateways and additional modelling results from several other global climate models. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

This study examines the slow modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) intensity and its underlying mechanism. A 10–15-yr ENSO intensity modulation cycle is identified from historical and paleoclimate data by calculating the envelope function of boreal winter Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 sea surface temperature (SST) indices. Composite analyses reveal interesting spatial asymmetries between El Niño and La Niña events within the modulation cycle. In the enhanced intensity periods of the cycle, El Niño is located in the eastern tropical Pacific and La Niña in the central tropical Pacific. The asymmetry is reversed in the weakened intensity periods: El Niño centers in the central Pacific and La Niña in the eastern Pacific. El Niño and La Niña centered in the eastern Pacific are accompanied with basin-scale surface wind and thermocline anomalies, whereas those centered in the central Pacific are accompanied with local wind and thermocline anomalies. The El Niño–La Niña asymmetries provide a possible mechanism for ENSO to exert a nonzero residual effect that could lead to slow changes in the Pacific mean state. The mean state changes are characterized by an SST dipole pattern between the eastern and central tropical Pacific, which appears as one leading EOF mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability. The Pacific Walker circulation migrates zonally in association with this decadal mode and also changes the mean surface wind and thermocline patterns along the equator. Although the causality has not been established, it is speculated that the mean state changes in turn favor the alternative spatial patterns of El Niño and La Niña that manifest as the reversed ENSO asymmetries. Using these findings, an ENSO–Pacific climate interaction mechanism is hypothesized to explain the decadal ENSO intensity modulation cycle.

A semiparametric, copula-based approach is proposed to capture the dependence between teleconnected hydroclimatic variables for the prediction of response variable using the information of climate precursors. The copulas have an excellent property to study the scale-free dependence structure while preserving such dependence during simulation. This property is utilized in the proposed approach. The usefulness of the proposed method can be recognized in three distinct aspects: (1) It captures the dependence pattern preserving scale-free or rank-based "measure of association'' between the variables. (2) The proposed method is able to quantify the uncertainty associated with the relationship between teleconnected variables due to various factors; thus, the probabilistic predictions are available along with information of uncertainty. (3) Instead of parametric probability distribution, nonparametrically estimated probability densities for data sets can be handled by the proposed approach. Thus, the proposed method can be applied to capture the relationship between teleconnected hydroclimatic variables having some linear and/ or nonlinear cause-effect relationship. The proposed method is illustrated by an example of the most discussed problem of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and two different large-scale climate precursors, namely, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO). The dependence between them is captured and investigated for its potential use to predict the monthly variation of ISMR using the proposed method. Predicted rainfall is shown to correspond well with the observed rainfall with a correlation coefficient of 0.81 for the summer monsoon months, i.e., June through September. Moreover, the uncertainty associated with the predicted values is also made available through boxplots. The method, being general, can be applied to similar analysis to assess the dependence between teleconnected hydroclimatic variables for other regions of the world and for different temporal scales such as seasonal.

Intrashell oxygen and carbon stable isotope profiles (δ18O,δ13C) were established for Mesodesma donacium shells from the preceramic archaeological site, Quebrada de los Burros in coastal southern Peru, to reconstruct the sea-surface temperature (SST) variations and to estimate changes of the El Niño-Southem Oscillation (ENSO) interannual variability from the early Holocene to the present. Very strong oxygen isotopic excursions attributed to El Niño events are evident in three shells dated between 9 and 7.9 ka. This indicates that short and strong warm events were breaking the mean cooler surface conditions (2-3°C cooler compared with today SSTs) in relation with an intense upwelling system. At 4.8 ka, slightly lower mean SST (cooler than today by 0.7°C) and a reduced seasonality confirms the previous hypothesis of a weak ENSO variability at this period.

The relationship between sea-surface temperature (SST) inter-annual variability at the subtropical and midlatitudes of the southern Atlantic and Indian Oceans and its links with the atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere are investigated over the 1950–1999 period. Exploratory analysis using singular value decomposition and further investigations based on simple indices show that a large part of regional SST variability is common between the southwestern parts of both basins at subtropical and midlatitudes during the austral summer. Interestingly, these areas are also significantly associated with the far southwestern Pacific (Tasman Sea area). The patterns and time series of co-variability between the southern Atlantic and Indian Oceans are shown to correspond to SST modes previously described in the literature as ‘subtropical dipoles’, independently for the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Composite analyses show that austral summers characterized by simultaneous warm (and to a lesser extent cold) SST anomalies in the southwestern (northern) part of both southern oceans are related to atmospheric anomalies mainly involving a southward shift and a strengthening of the subtropical high-pressure systems over both basins. These anomalies are embedded in a hemispheric signal associating two cores of positive pressure anomalies within the South Pacific anticyclone. The global picture appears to have a wave number 4 spatial structure. The associated low-level wind and latent heat-flux anomalies and the lags between atmospheric variables and SST anomalies are consistent with an atmospheric forcing on the ocean. Potential links of these patterns with large-scale modes of climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere are discussed. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Temperature reconstructions indicate that the Pliocene was approximately 3 ° C warmer globally than today, and several recent reconstructions of Pliocene atmospheric CO 2 indicate that it was above pre-industrial levels and similar to those likely to be seen this century. However, many of these reconstructions have been of relatively low temporal resolution, meaning that these records may have failed to capture variations associated with the 41 kyr glacial–interglacial cycles thought to have operated in the Pliocene. Here we present a new, high temporal resolution alkenone carbon isotope-based record of p CO 2 spanning 3.3–2.8 Ma from Ocean Drilling Program Site 999. Our record is of high enough resolution (approx. 19 kyr) to resolve glacial–interglacial changes beyond the intrinsic uncertainty of the proxy method. The record suggests that Pliocene CO 2 levels were relatively stable, exhibiting variation less than 55 ppm. We perform sensitivity studies to investigate the possible effect of changing sea surface temperature (SST), which highlights the importance of accurate and precise SST reconstructions for alkenone palaeobarometry, but demonstrate that these uncertainties do not affect our conclusions of relatively stable p CO 2 levels during this interval.