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Aims: To compare the performance of logistic regression and machine learning methods in predicting postoperative delirium (POD) in elderly patients. Method: This was a retrospective study of perioperative medical data from patients undergoing non‐cardiac and non‐neurology surgery over 65 years old from January 2014 to August 2019. Forty‐six perioperative variables were used to predict POD. A traditional logistic regression and five machine learning models (Random Forest, GBM, AdaBoost, XGBoost, and a stacking ensemble model) were compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC‐ROC), sensitivity, specificity, and precision. Results: In total, 29,756 patients were enrolled, and the incidence of POD was 3.22% after variable screening. AUCs were 0.783 (0.765–0.8) for the logistic regression method, 0.78 for random forest, 0.76 for GBM, 0.74 for AdaBoost, 0.73 for XGBoost, and 0.77 for the stacking ensemble model. The respective sensitivities for the 6 aforementioned models were 74.2%, 72.2%, 76.8%, 63.6%, 71.6%, and 67.4%. The respective specificities for the 6 aforementioned models were 70.7%, 99.8%, 96.5%, 98.8%, 96.5%, and 96.1%. The respective precision values for the 6 aforementioned models were 7.8%, 52.3%, 55.6%, 57%, 54.5%, and 56.4%. Conclusions: The optimal application of the logistic regression model could provide quick and convenient POD risk identification to help improve the perioperative management of surgical patients because of its better sensitivity, fewer variables, and easier interpretability than the machine learning model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has a heavy impact on the mental health of elderly surgical patients worldwide. In particular, the elderly patients faced considerable psychological stress due to various environmental and medical factors during the outbreak. This study aims to examine changes in mental health trends among non-cardiac surgical patients aged 65 and above in China during the COVID-19 pandemic. This multi-center, convenient sampling, longitudinal observational study was conducted from April 1, 2020 to April 30, 2022. Primary outcome was the prevalence of postoperative depression. Secondary outcome was the prevalence of postoperative anxiety. Follow-up was conducted separately at 7 days and 30 days after surgery. Depression symptoms were assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (PHQ-9) scale. Anxiety symptoms were assessed using Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7) scale, with scores of ≥5 defining positive depression or anxiety symptoms. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to investigate risk factors of mental health status in more elderly patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery. A total of 4639 patients were included, of whom 2279 (46.0 %) were male, 752 (15.2 %) were over the age of 75, and 4346 (93.7 %) were married. The monthly prevalence trends demonstrated that compared to the outbreak period, a significant reduction in the prevalence of depression and anxiety symptoms in elderly patients who underwent surgery during the post-pandemic period. In post-pandemic period, a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of all severity depression and anxiety patients was noted at the 7-day follow-up, but no significant decrease was observed for severe depression and anxiety in the 30-day follow-up. In COVID-19 low-risk area, a significant overall decrease in prevalence of mental health was observed during the post-pandemic period compared to the outbreak period, including 7-day depression, 7-day anxiety, 30-day depression, and 30-day anxiety (all with P < 0.001). Female and patients with ≥2 comorbidities appeared to be more susceptible to postoperative depression and anxiety during the pandemic. The absence of data from the early days of the COVID-19 outbreak. This study analyzed the prevalence of depression and anxiety in elderly non-cardiac patients during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on dimensions such as severity, risk-areas, gender, and comorbidity. Our findings revealed a significant decrease in the prevalence of depression and anxiety in elderly surgery patients during the post-pandemic period. • This study was a multi-center, convenient sampling, longitudinal observational study which focused on the changes in mental health symptoms in the post-pandemic era of elderly patients in China. • We found that female and patients with more comorbidities were more likely to experience symptoms of depression and anxiety during the pandemic. • We showed a significant decrease in depression and anxiety prevalence of postoperative 7-day and 30-day compared to during the epidemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]