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It is of critical importance to comprehend the biological environment and core tumor populations when trying to design successful therapeutic solutions for fighting cancers. In several diseases, G9a has been recognized as a novel epigenetic therapeutic target, and its blockage can shift tumor cells (TCs) toward tumor propagating cells (TPCs). This study combines mathematical modeling based on ordinary differential equations and dynamical analysis to quantitatively and qualitatively understand the interactions among G9a, TCs, and TPCs, denoted as G9a-TC-TPC. We propose four different dynamical systems with the impact of the strong Allee effect, named the Hill–Hill system, Logistic–Logistic system, Hill–Logistic system and Logistic–Hill system, to simulate different biological processes through the Hill functions and the Logistic functions that are often used in the models of biological systems. Based on theoretical analysis of these models, including the positivity, boundedness and stability of equilibria, we find that the Hill–Logistic system can display bistable states that correspond to the wild-type tumors and the aggressive tumors. Consequently, we use bifurcation analysis and numerical simulations to illustrate the complicated dynamical behavior of this system. It has been shown that under a specific therapy that changes the relative apoptotic rate of TCs (G9a suppresses the apoptosis of TCs), which can affect the bistability and instability of the system, the wide-type state can be obtained. We also discover that the relative handling time of TCs and TPCs can cooperatively enhance bistability, whereas the cooperative coefficient of feedback can contribute to all tumor cells moving from high-level monostability to bistable states in a restricted region, then to low-level stable states. These results offer new insights for more precisely understanding epigenetic therapy treatments with G9a. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has serious influences on human health and economy. The available clinical data suggest that patients infected by SARS-CoV-2 have the possibility of simultaneous infection of bacteria. In this study, we present a data-driven mathematical model for coinfection of SARS-CoV-2 and bacteria to investigate the dynamics of COVID-19 progress. Specifically, based on the statistical analysis of different clinical data from China and some other countries, a system model with ordinary differential equations (ODEs) in four variables, i.e. SARS-CoV-2, bacteria, neutrophils and lymphocytes, is established. We further validate our model through theoretical analysis and fitting of different clinical data. Moreover, through numerical simulations and bifurcation analysis, we find that bacterial infection and immune-related parameters in certain ranges lead to the system transitions among three steady states, i.e. mild, severe and death. We also analyzed the influence of the time it takes for patients to switch from a high-risk area to a low-risk area on the recovery time. These results reveal that the coinfection of viruses and bacteria can explain the changes in neutrophils and lymphocytes, and that initial bacterial infection and immune-related parameters have great influences on the severity degree and mortality in COVID-19 patients. Together, our model and quantitative analysis suggest that preventing bacterial infection and enhancing immune ability during the early phase of infections could be a potential treatment option for high-risk COVID-19 patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considerable evidence suggests that in complex diseases the deteriorations are often abrupt, and can be viewed as a bifurcation or a critical transition from one asymptotically stable equilibrium to another one at a tipping point. Here, we propose some new ideas to detect early-warning signals of such critical transitions from the perspective of qualitative theory of ordinary differential equations. Specifically, we theoretically derive three indicators that serve as a general early-warning signal indicating an imminent bifurcation or sudden deterioration before the critical transition occurs. Then, we verify our theoretical results by numerical simulations for three examples. Our work forms a starting point to motivate new mathematical insights into predictability for critical transitions of dynamical systems from a new perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to the heterogeneity in the evolution of cancer, distinguishing between diverse growth patterns and predicting long-term outcomes based on short-term measurements poses a great challenge. A novel multiscale framework is proposed to unravel the connections between the population dynamics of cancer growth (i.e., aggressive, bounded, and indolent) and the cellular-subclonal dynamics of cancer evolution. This framework employs the non-negative lasso (NN-LASSO) algorithm to forge a link between an ordinary differential equation (ODE)-based population model and a cellular evolution model. The findings of our current work not only affirm the impact of subclonal composition on growth dynamics but also identify two significant subclones within heterogeneous growth patterns. Moreover, the subclonal compositions at the initial time are able to accurately discriminate diverse growth patterns through a machine learning algorithm. The proposed multiscale framework successfully delineates the intricate landscape of cancer evolution, bridging the gap between long-term growth dynamics and short-term measurements, both in simulated and real-world data. This methodology provides a novel avenue for thorough exploration into the realm of cancer evolution. [Display omitted] • A mathematical framework to link the population dynamics and the subclonal dynamics. • The predicted evolutionary landscape reveals the importance of subclonal composition. • Short-term measurements prove effective in predicting long-term growth patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]