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The relationship between self-reported falls and fracture risk was estimated in an international meta-analysis of individual-level data from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were associated with an increased fracture risk in women and men and should be considered as an additional risk factor in the FRAX® algorithm., Introduction: Previous falls are a well-documented risk factor for subsequent fracture but have not yet been incorporated into the FRAX algorithm. The aim of this study was to evaluate, in an international meta-analysis, the association between previous falls and subsequent fracture risk and its relation to sex, age, duration of follow-up, and bone mineral density (BMD)., Methods: The resource comprised 906,359 women and men (66.9% female) from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were uniformly defined as any fall occurring during the previous year in 43 cohorts; the remaining three cohorts had a different question construct. The association between previous falls and fracture risk (any clinical fracture, osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture) was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and each sex, followed by random-effects meta-analyses of the weighted beta coefficients., Results: Falls in the past year were reported in 21.4% of individuals. During a follow-up of 9,102,207 person-years, 87,352 fractures occurred of which 19,509 were hip fractures. A previous fall was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture both in women (hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.51) and men (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.41-1.67). The HRs were of similar magnitude for osteoporotic, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture. Sex significantly modified the association between previous fall and fracture risk, with predictive values being higher in men than in women (e.g., for major osteoporotic fracture, HR 1.53 (95% CI 1.27-1.84) in men vs. HR 1.32 (95% CI 1.20-1.45) in women, P for interaction = 0.013). The HRs associated with previous falls decreased with age in women and with duration of follow-up in men and women for most fracture outcomes. There was no evidence of an interaction between falls and BMD for fracture risk. Subsequent risk for a major osteoporotic fracture increased with each additional previous fall in women and men., Conclusions: A previous self-reported fall confers an increased risk of fracture that is largely independent of BMD. Previous falls should be considered as an additional risk factor in future iterations of FRAX to improve fracture risk prediction., (© 2024. International Osteoporosis Foundation and Bone Health and Osteoporosis Foundation.)

A large international meta-analysis using primary data from 64 cohorts has quantified the increased risk of fracture associated with a previous history of fracture for future use in FRAX., Introduction: The aim of this study was to quantify the fracture risk associated with a prior fracture on an international basis and to explore the relationship of this risk with age, sex, time since baseline and bone mineral density (BMD)., Methods: We studied 665,971 men and 1,438,535 women from 64 cohorts in 32 countries followed for a total of 19.5 million person-years. The effect of a prior history of fracture on the risk of any clinical fracture, any osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture alone was examined using an extended Poisson model in each cohort. Covariates examined were age, sex, BMD, and duration of follow-up. The results of the different studies were merged by using the weighted β-coefficients., Results: A previous fracture history, compared with individuals without a prior fracture, was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture (hazard ratio, HR = 1.88; 95% CI = 1.72-2.07). The risk ratio was similar for the outcome of osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.87; 95% CI = 1.69-2.07), major osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.83; 95% CI = 1.63-2.06), or for hip fracture (HR = 1.82; 95% CI = 1.62-2.06). There was no significant difference in risk ratio between men and women. Subsequent fracture risk was marginally downward adjusted when account was taken of BMD. Low BMD explained a minority of the risk for any clinical fracture (14%), osteoporotic fracture (17%), and for hip fracture (33%). The risk ratio for all fracture outcomes related to prior fracture decreased significantly with adjustment for age and time since baseline examination., Conclusion: A previous history of fracture confers an increased risk of fracture of substantial importance beyond that explained by BMD. The effect is similar in men and women. Its quantitation on an international basis permits the more accurate use of this risk factor in case finding strategies., (© 2023. International Osteoporosis Foundation and Bone Health and Osteoporosis Foundation.)

Context: Fragility fracture is a significant public health problem because it is associated with increased mortality. We want to find out whether the risk of fracture can be predicted from the time of birth., Objective: To examine the association between a polygenic risk score (PRS) and lifetime fracture risk., Methods: This population-based prospective study involved 3515 community-dwelling individuals aged 60+ years who have been followed for up to 20 years. Femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) was measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. A PRS was created by summing the weighted number of risk alleles for each single nucleotide polymorphism using BMD-associated coefficients. Fragility fractures were radiologically ascertained, whereas mortality was ascertained through a state registry. Residual lifetime risk of fracture (RLRF) was estimated by survival analysis., Results: The mortality-adjusted RLRF for women and men was 36% (95% CI, 34%-39%) and 21% (18%-24%), respectively. Individuals with PRS > 4.24 (median) had a greater risk (1.2-fold in women and 1.1-fold in men) than the population average risk. For hip fracture, the average RLRF was 10% (95% CI, 8%-12%) for women and ∼5% (3%-7%) for men; however, the risk was significantly increased by 1.5-fold and 1.3-fold for women and men with high PRS, respectively., Conclusion: A genetic profiling of BMD-associated genetic variants is associated with the residual lifetime risk of fracture, suggesting the potential for incorporating the polygenic risk score in personalized fracture risk assessment., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Endocrine Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Robust data on osteoporosis in the Asia Pacific region could improve healthcare decision-making. Osteoporosis affects 10-30% of women aged 40 + , and up to 10% of men in 7 developed economies in Asia Pacific. Fractures affect 500-1000 adults aged 50 + per 100,000 person-years. Policymakers and clinicians must address this problem., Purpose: Osteoporosis and associated fractures result in considerable morbidity, loss of productivity, early mortality, and increased healthcare expenses. Many countries in the Asia Pacific (AP) region, especially middle- and higher-income economies, are faced with aging and increasingly sedentary populations. It is critical to consolidate and analyze the available information on the prevalence and incidence of the disease in these countries., Methods: We systematically reviewed articles and gray literature for Australia, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. We searched PubMed, ScienceDirect, JSTOR, Cochrane, Google Scholar, and other databases for data published 2009-2018. We included articles with prevalence or incidence estimates for adults with osteoporosis or related fractures., Results: All locations had data available, but of widely varying quantity and quality. Most estimates for osteoporosis prevalence ranged from 10 to 30% for women ages 40 and older, and up to 10% for men. Osteoporotic fracture incidence typically ranged between 500 and 1000 per 100,000 person-years among adults aged 50 and older. Both outcomes typically increased with age and were more common among women., Conclusion: Osteoporosis and associated fractures affect significant portions of the adult population in developed economies in the AP region. Governments and healthcare systems must consider how best to prevent and diagnose osteoporosis, and manage affected individuals, to reduce healthcare costs and mortality associated with fractures., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Importance: Limited knowledge about interactions among health disorders impedes optimal patient care. Because comorbidities are common among patients 50 years and older with fractures, these fractures provide a useful setting for studying interactions among disorders., Objective: To define multimorbidity clusters at the time of fracture and quantify the interaction between multimorbidity and fracture in association with postfracture excess mortality., Design, Setting, and Participants: This nationwide cohort study included 307 870 adults in Denmark born on or before January 1, 1951, who had an incident low-trauma fracture between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2014, and were followed up through December 31, 2016. Data were analyzed from February 1 to March 31, 2022., Main Outcomes and Measures: Fracture and 32 predefined chronic diseases recorded within 5 years before the index fracture were identified from the Danish National Hospital Discharge Register. Death was ascertained from the Danish Register on Causes of Death. Latent class analysis was conducted to identify multimorbidity clusters. Relative survival analysis was used to quantify excess mortality associated with the combination of multimorbidity and fractures at specific sites., Results: Among the 307 870 participants identified with incident fractures, 95 372 were men (31.0%; mean [SD] age at fracture, 72.3 [11.2] years) and 212 498 were women (69.0%; mean [SD] age at fracture, 74.9 [11.2] years). During a median of 6.5 (IQR, 3.0-11.0) years of follow-up, 41 017 men (43.0%) and 81 727 women (38.5%) died. Almost half of patients with fractures (42.9%) had at least 2 comorbidities. Comorbidities at fracture were categorized as low-multimorbidity (60.5% in men and 66.5% in women), cardiovascular (23.7% in men and 23.5% in women), diabetic (5.6% in men and 5.0% in women), malignant (5.1% in men and 5.0% in women), and mixed hepatic and/or inflammatory (5.1% in men only) clusters. These clusters distinguished individuals with advanced, complex, or late-stage disease from those with earlier-stage disease. Multimorbidity and proximal or lower leg fractures were associated with increased mortality risk, with the highest excess mortality found in patients with hip fracture in the malignant cluster (1-year excess mortality: 40.8% [95% CI: 38.1%-43.6%]). The combination of multimorbidity and fracture compounded the association with mortality, conferring much greater risk than either alone., Conclusions and Relevance: Concomitant illnesses were common and clustered into distinct multimorbidity clusters that were associated with excess postfracture mortality. The compound contribution of multimorbidity to postfracture excess mortality highlights the need for more comprehensive approaches in these high-risk patients. The analytical approach applied to fracture could also be used to examine other sentinel health events.

We describe the collection of cohorts together with the analysis plan for an update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX with respect to current and novel risk factors. The resource comprises 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures., Introduction: The availability of the fracture risk assessment tool FRAX® has substantially enhanced the targeting of treatment to those at high risk of fracture with FRAX now incorporated into more than 100 clinical osteoporosis guidelines worldwide. The aim of this study is to determine whether the current algorithms can be further optimised with respect to current and novel risk factors., Methods: A computerised literature search was performed in PubMed from inception until May 17, 2019, to identify eligible cohorts for updating the FRAX coefficients. Additionally, we searched the abstracts of conference proceedings of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research, European Calcified Tissue Society and World Congress of Osteoporosis. Prospective cohort studies with data on baseline clinical risk factors and incident fractures were eligible., Results: Of the 836 records retrieved, 53 were selected for full-text assessment after screening on title and abstract. Twelve cohorts were deemed eligible and of these, 4 novel cohorts were identified. These cohorts, together with 60 previously identified cohorts, will provide the resource for constructing an updated version of FRAX comprising 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures. For each known and candidate risk factor, multivariate hazard functions for hip fracture, major osteoporotic fracture and death will be tested using extended Poisson regression. Sex- and/or ethnicity-specific differences in the weights of the risk factors will be investigated. After meta-analyses of the cohort-specific beta coefficients for each risk factor, models comprising 10-year probability of hip and major osteoporotic fracture, with or without femoral neck bone mineral density, will be computed., Conclusions: These assembled cohorts and described models will provide the framework for an updated FRAX tool enabling enhanced assessment of fracture risk (PROSPERO (CRD42021227266))., (© 2022. International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation.)

Fracture liaison services (FLS) are considered to be the most effective organizational approach for secondary fracture prevention. In this study, we evaluated whether FLS care was associated with reduced subsequent fracture and mortality risk over 3 years of follow-up. In total, 8682 consecutive patients aged 50-90 years with a recent fracture were included. Before FLS introduction, regular fracture treatment procedures were followed (pre-FLS). After FLS introduction, patients were invited to the FLS and FLS attenders were assessed for osteoporosis, prevalent vertebral fractures, metabolic bone disorders, medication use, and fall risk, and treatment for fracture prevention was initiated according to Dutch guidelines. All fractures were radiographically confirmed and categorized into major/hip (pelvis, proximal humerus or tibia, vertebral, multiple rib, distal femur) and non-major/non-hip (all other fractures). Mortality risk was examined using age and sex adjusted Cox proportional hazard models. For subsequent fracture risk, Cox proportional hazard models were adjusted for age, sex, and competing mortality risk (subdistribution hazard [SHR] approach). The pre-FLS group consisted of 2530 patients (72% women), of whom 1188 (46.9%) had major/hip index fractures, the post-FLS group consisted of 6152 patients (69% women), of whom 2973 (48.3%) had major/hip index fractures. In patients with a non-major/non-hip fracture there was no difference in subsequent non-major/non-hip fracture risk or mortality between pre-FLS and post-FLS. In patients with a major/hip index fracture, mortality risk was lower post-FLS (hazard ratio [HR] 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.96) and subsequent major/hip fracture risk was lower in the first 360 days after index fracture post-FLS compared to pre-FLS (SHR 0.67; 95% CI, 0.52-0.87). In conclusion, FLS care was associated with a lower mortality risk in the first 3 years and a lower subsequent major/hip fracture risk in the first year in patients with a major/hip index fracture but not in patients with a non-major/non-hip fracture. © 2022 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR)., (© 2022 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).)

Diabetes increases fracture and falls risks. We evaluated the performance of the Garvan fracture risk calculator (FRC) in individuals with versus without diabetes. Using the population-based Manitoba bone mineral density (BMD) registry, we identified individuals aged 50-95 years undergoing baseline BMD assessment from 1 September 2012, onwards with diabetes and self-reported falls in the prior 12 months. Five-year Garvan FRC predictions were generated from clinical risk factors, with and without femoral neck BMD. We identified non-traumatic osteoporotic fractures (OF) and hip fractures (HF) from population-based data to 31 March 2018. Fracture risk stratification was assessed from area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC). Cox regression analysis was performed to examine the effect of diabetes on fractures, adjusted for Garvan FRC predictions. The study population consisted of 2618 women with and 14,064 without diabetes, and 636 and 2201 men with and without the same, respectively. The Garvan FRC provided significant OF and HF risk stratification in women with diabetes, similar to those without diabetes. Analyses of OF in men were limited by smaller numbers; no significant difference was evident by diabetes status. Cox regression showed that OF risk was 23% greater in women with diabetes adjusted for Garvan FRC including BMD (hazard ratio [HR] 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.49), suggesting it slightly underestimated risk; a non-significant increase in diabetes-related HF risk was noted (HR 1.37, 95% CI 0.88-2.15). Garvan FRC shows similar fracture risk stratification in individuals with versus without diabetes, but may underestimate this risk., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.)

The G arvan Fracture Risk Calculator predicts risk of osteoporotic fractures. We evaluated its predictive performance in 16,682 women and 2839 men from Manitoba, Canada, and found significant risk stratification, with a strong gradient across scores. The tool outperformed clinical risk factors and bone mineral density for fracture risk stratification., Introduction: The optimal model for fracture risk estimation to guide treatment decision-making remains controversial. Our objective was to evaluate the predictive performance of the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (FRC) in a large clinical registry from Manitoba, Canada., Methods: Using the population-based Manitoba Bone Mineral Density (BMD) registry, we identified women and men aged 50-95 years undergoing baseline BMD assessment from September 1, 2012, onwards. Five-year Garvan FRC predictions were generated from clinical risk factors (CRFs) with and without femoral neck BMD. We identified incident non-traumatic osteoporotic fractures (OFs) and hip fractures (HFs) from population-based healthcare data sources to March 31, 2018. Fracture risk was assessed from area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Cox regression analysis and calibration ratios (5-year observed/predicted) were assessed for risk quintiles. All analyses were sex stratified., Results: We included 16,682 women (mean age 66.6 + / - SD 8.7 years) and 2839 men (mean age 68.7 + / - SD 10.2 years). During a mean observation time of 2.6 years, incident OFs were identified in 681 women and 140 men and HFs in 199 women and 22 men. AUROC showed significant fracture risk stratification with the Garvan FRC. Tool predictions without BMD were better than from age or decreasing weight, and the tool with BMD performed better than BMD alone. Garvan FRC with BMD performed better than without BMD, especially for HF prediction (AUROC 0.86 in women, 0.82 in men). There was a strong gradient of increasing risk across Garvan FRC quintiles (highest versus lowest, hazard ratios women 5.75 and men 3.43 for any OF; women 101.6 for HF). Calibration differences were noted, with both over- and underestimation in risk., Conclusions: Garvan FRC outperformed CRFs and BMD alone for fracture risk stratification, particularly for HF, but may require recalibration for accurate predictions in this population., (© 2021. International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation.)

The Australian Health Economics Model of Osteoporosis (AusHEMO) has shown good face, internal and cross validities, and can be used to assist healthcare decision-making in Australia., Purpose: This study aimed to document and validate the risk engine of the Australian Health Economics Model of Osteoporosis (AusHEMO)., Methods: AusHEMO is a state-transition microsimulation model. The fracture risks were simulated using fracture incidence rates from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study. The AusHEMO was validated regarding its face, internal and cross validities. Goodness-of-fit analysis was conducted and Lin's coefficient of agreement and mean absolute difference with 95% limits of agreement were reported., Results: The development of AusHEMO followed general and osteoporosis-specific health economics guidelines. AusHEMO showed good face validity regarding the model's structure, evidence, problem formulation and results. In addition, the model has been proven good internal and cross validities in goodness-of-fit test. Lin's coefficient was 0.99, 1 and 0.94 for validation against the fracture incidence rates, Australian life expectancies and residual lifetime fracture risks, respectively., Conclusions: In summary, the development of the risk engine of AusHEMO followed the best practice for osteoporosis disease modelling and the model has been shown to have good face, internal and cross validities. The AusHEMO can be confidently used to predict long-term fracture-related outcomes and health economic evaluations when costs data are included. Health policy-makers in Australia can use the AusHEMO to select which osteoporosis interventions such as medications and public health interventions represent good value for money., (© 2021. International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation.)

Existing fracture risk assessment tools are not designed to predict fracture-associated consequences, possibly contributing to the current undermanagement of fragility fractures worldwide. We aimed to develop a risk assessment tool for predicting the conceptual risk of fragility fractures and its consequences. The study involved 8965 people aged ≥60 years from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study and the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study. Incident fracture was identified from X-ray reports and questionnaires, and death was ascertained though contact with a family member or obituary review. We used a multistate model to quantify the effects of the predictors on the transition risks to an initial and subsequent incident fracture and mortality, accounting for their complex interrelationships, confounding effects, and death as a competing risk. There were 2364 initial fractures, 755 subsequent fractures, and 3300 deaths during a median follow-up of 13 years (interquartile range [IQR] 7-15). The prediction model included sex, age, bone mineral density, history of falls within 12 previous months, prior fracture after the age of 50 years, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, chronic pulmonary diseases, hypertension, and cancer. The model accurately predicted fragility fractures up to 11 years of follow-up and post-fracture mortality up to 9 years, ranging from 7 years after hip fractures to 15 years after non-hip fractures. For example, a 70-year-old woman with a T-score of -1.5 and without other risk factors would have 10% chance of sustaining a fracture and an 8% risk of dying in 5 years. However, after an initial fracture, her risk of sustaining another fracture or dying doubles to 33%, ranging from 26% after a distal to 42% post hip fracture. A robust statistical technique was used to develop a prediction model for individualization of progression to fracture and its consequences, facilitating informed decision making about risk and thus treatment for individuals with different risk profiles. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research., (© 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.)

Background: One in three women and one in five men are expected to experience a minimal-trauma-fracture after the age of 50-years, which increases the risk of subsequent fracture. Importantly, timely diagnosis and optimal treatment in the form of a fracture liaison service (FLS), has been shown to reduce this risk of a subsequent fracture. However, baseline risk of subsequent fracture among this group of FLS patients has not been well described. Therefore, this study aims to estimate absolute risk of subsequent fracture, among women and men aged 50-years or more, presenting to hospital with a minimal-trauma-fracture., Methods: Women and men aged 50-years or more with a minimal-trauma-fracture, presenting to hospitals across the South Western Sydney Local Health District between January 2003 and December 2017 were followed to identify subsequent fracture presentations to hospital. Absolute risk of subsequent fracture was estimated, by taking into account the competing risk of death., Results: Between January 2003 and December 2017-15,088 patients presented to the emergency departments of the five hospitals in the SWSLHD (11,149, women [74%]), with minimal-trauma-fractures. Subsequent fractures identified during the follow-up period (median = 4.5 years [IQR, 1.6-8.2]), occurred in 2024 (13%) patients. Death during the initial hospital stay, or during a subsequent hospital visit was recorded among 1646 patients (11%). Women were observed to have 7.1% risk of subsequent fracture after 1-year, following an initial fracture; and, the risk of subsequent fracture after 1-year was 6.2% for men. After 5-years the rate among women was 13.7, and 11.3% for men, respectively. Cumulative risk of subsequent fracture when initial fractures were classified as being at proximal or distal sites are also presented., Conclusion: This study has estimated the baseline risk of subsequent fracture among women and men presenting to hospital with minimal trauma fractures. Importantly, this information can be used to communicate risk to patients deciding to attend an osteoporosis refracture prevention clinic, and highlight the need for screening, and initial of treatment when indicated, once a minimal-trauma-fracture has occurred.

Less is known about the impact of non-hip non-vertebral fractures (NHNV) on early death. This study demonstrated increased risk of dying following hip and NHNV fractures which was further increased by a subsequent fracture. This highlights the importance of early intervention to prevent both initial and subsequent fractures and improve survival., Introduction: Osteoporotic fractures are a major health concern. Limited evidence exists on their impact on mortality in ageing populations. This study examined the contribution of initial fracture type and subsequent fracture on mortality in a Norwegian population that has one of the highest rates of fractures., Methods: The Tromsø Study is a prospective population-based cohort in Norway. Women and men aged 50+ years were followed from 1994 to 2010. All incident hip and non-hip non-vertebral (NHNV) fractures were registered. NHNV fractures were classified as either proximal or distal. Information on self-reported co-morbidities, lifestyle factors, general health and education level was collected. Multivariable Cox models were used to quantify mortality risk with incident and subsequent fractures analysed as time-dependent variables., Results: Of 5214 women and 4620 men, 1549 (30%) and 504 (11%) sustained a fracture, followed by 589 (38%) and 254 (51%) deaths over 10,523 and 2821 person-years, respectively. There were 403 (26%) subsequent fractures in women and 68 (13%) in men. Hip fracture was associated with a two-fold increase in mortality risk (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.73-2.42 in women and 2.49, 95% CI 2.00-3.11 in men). Proximal NHNV fractures were associated with 49% and 81% increased mortality risk in women and men (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.21-1.84 and 1.81, 95% CI 1.37-2.41), respectively. Distal NHNV fractures were not associated with mortality. Subsequent fracture was associated with 89% and 77% increased mortality risk in women and men (HR 1.89, 95% CI 1.52-2.35 and 1.77, 95% CI 1.16-2.71), respectively., Conclusion: Hip, proximal NHNV and subsequent fractures were significantly associated with increased mortality risk in the elderly, highlighting the importance of early intervention.

In this prospective cohort of 6120 participants aged 50+, nitrogen-bisphosphonates but not non-nitrogen bisphosphonates were associated with a significant 34% mortality risk reduction compared to non-treated propensity score matched controls. These findings open new avenues for research into mechanistic pathways., Introduction: Emerging evidence suggests that bisphosphonates (BP), first-line treatment of osteoporosis, are associated with reduced risks for all-cause mortality. This study aimed to determine the association between different BP types and mortality risk in participants with or without a fracture., Methods: A prospective cohort study of users of different BPs matched to non-users by propensity score (age, gender, co-morbidities, fragility fracture status) and time to starting the BP medication from the population-based Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study from nine Canadian centres followed from 1995 to 2013. Mortality risk for bisphosphonate users vs matched non-users was assessed using pairwise multivariable Cox proportional hazards models., Results: There were 2048 women and 308 men on BP and 1970 women and 1794 men who did not receive medication for osteoporosis. The relationship between BP and mortality risk was explored in three separate 1:1 propensity score-matched cohorts of BP users and no treatment (etidronate, n = 599, alendronate, n = 498, and risedronate n = 213). Nitrogen BP (n-BP) (alendronate and risedronate) was associated with lower mortality risks [pairwise HR, 0.66 (95% CI, 0.48-0.91)] while the less potent non-n-BP, etidronate, was not [pairwise HR: 0.89 (95% CI, 0.66-1.20)]. A direct comparison between n-BP and etidronate (n = 340 pairs) also suggested a better survival for n-BP [paired HR, 0.47 (95%CI, (95% CI, 031-0.70)] for n-BP vs. etidronate]., Conclusion: Compared to no treatment, nitrogen but not non-nitrogen bisphosphonates appear to be associated with better survival.

Context: Little is known about long-term excess mortality following fragility nonhip fractures., Objective: The study aimed to determine which fracture was associated with excess mortality and for how long the postfracture excess mortality persisted., Design, Setting, and Patients: This nationwide registry-based follow-up study included all individuals in Denmark aged 50+ years who first experienced fragility fractures in 2001 and were followed up for up to 10 years for their mortality risk., Main Outcome Measure: The contribution of fracture to mortality at precise postfracture time intervals was examined using relative survival analysis, accounting for time-related mortality changes in the background population., Results: There were 21,123 women (aged 72 ± 13 years) and 9481 men (aged 67 ± 12 years) with an incident fragility fracture in 2001, followed by 10,668 and 4745 deaths, respectively. Excess mortality was observed following all proximal and lower leg fractures. The majority of deaths occurred within the first year after fracture, and thereafter excess mortality gradually declined. Hip fractures were associated with the highest excess mortality (33% and 20% at 1 year after fracture in men and women, respectively). One-year excess mortality after fracture of a femur or pelvis was 20% to 25%; vertebrae, 10%; humerus, rib, or clavicle, 5% to 10%; and lower leg, 3%. A significant although smaller excess mortality was still observed until 10 years for hip fractures and ~5 years after femur, other proximal, and lower leg fractures., Conclusion: This study highlights the important contribution of a wide variety of fragility fractures to long-term excess mortality and thus the potential for benefit from early intervention.

Objective: Osteoporotic fragility fractures, that are common in men and women, signal increased risk of future fractures and of premature mortality. Less than one-third of postmenopausal women and fewer men are prescribed active treatments to reduce fracture risk. Therefore, in this study the association of oral bisphosphonate recommendation with subsequent fracture and mortality over eight years in a fracture liaison service setting was analysed., Materials and Methods: In this prospective cohort study, 5011 men and women aged >50 years, who sustained a clinical fracture, accepted the invitation to attend the fracture liaison service of the West Glasgow health service between 1999 and 2007. These patients were fully assessed and all were recommended calcium and vitamin D. Based on pre-defined fracture risk criteria, 2534 (50.7%) patients were additionally also recommended oral bisphosphonates. Mortality and subsequent fracture risk were the pre-defined outcomes analysed using Cox proportional hazard models., Results: Those recommended bisphosphonates were more often female (82.9 vs. 72.4%), were older (73.4 vs. 64.4 years), had lower bone mineral density T-score (-3.1 vs. -1.5) and more had sustained hip fractures (21.7 vs. 6.2%; p < 0.001). After adjustments, patients recommended bisphosphonates had lower subsequent fracture risk (Hazard Ratio (HR): 0.60; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49-0.73) and lower mortality risk (HR: 0.79, 95%CI: 0.64-0.97)., Conclusion: Of the patients, who are fully assessed after a fracture at the fracture liaison service, those with higher fracture risk and a recommendation for bisphosphonates had worse baseline characteristics. However, after adjusting for these differences, those recommended bisphosphonate treatment had a substantially lower risk for subsequent fragility fracture and lower risk for mortality. These community-based data indicate the adverse public health outcomes and mortality impacts of the current low treatment levels post fracture could be improved by bisphosphonate recommendation for both subsequent fracture and mortality., Competing Interests: Dr. van Geel, Dr. Bliuc, Prof. Geusens, Prof. Dinant, dr. Tran, and Prof. McLellan have no competing of interests to report. Prof. Center discloses relevant financial interests outside this body of work. She has received honoraria for educational talks and meeting sponsorship from Amgen, Teva, and Merck Sharpe and Dohme. She has received honoraria for educational talks and meeting sponsorship from Amgen and Merck Sharpe and Dohme. Prof. van den Bergh discloses relevant financial interests outside this body of work. He has received honoraria for educational talks and grants from Amgen, Merck, Sharp and Dohme, Eli Lilly and Will Pharma. Prof. Eisman discloses relevant financial interests outside this body of work. He has received grants and/or personal fees from Amgen, Merck, Sharp and Dohme, Novartis, and sanofi-Aventis and non-financial support from Aspen. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Femoral neck (FN) bone mineral density (BMD) is the most commonly used skeletal site to estimate fracture risk. The role of lumbar spine (LS) BMD in fracture risk prediction is less clear due to osteophytes that spuriously increase LS BMD, particularly at lower levels. The aim of this study was to compare fracture predictive ability of upper L1-L2 BMD with standard L2-L4 BMD and assess whether the addition of either LS site could improve fracture prediction over FN BMD. This study comprised a prospective cohort of 3016 women and men over 60 yr from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study followed up for occurrence of minimal trauma fractures from 1989 to 2014. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was used to measure BMD at L1-L2, L2-L4, and FN at baseline. Fracture risks were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models separately for each site. Predictive performances were compared using receiver operating characteristic curve analyses. There were 565 women and 179 men with a minimal trauma fracture during a mean of 11 ± 7 yr. L1-L2 BMD T-score was significantly lower than L2-L4 T-score in both genders (p < 0.0001). L1-L2 and L2-L4 BMD models had a similar fracture predictive ability. LS BMD was better than FN BMD in predicting vertebral fracture risk in women [area under the curve 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.79) vs 0.68 (95% confidence interval, 0.62-0.74), but FN was superior for hip fractures prediction in both women and men. The addition of L1-L2 or L2-L4 to FN BMD in women increased overall and vertebral predictive power compared with FN BMD alone by 1% and 4%, respectively (p < 0.05). In an elderly population, L1-L2 is as good as but not better than L2-L4 site in predicting fracture risk. The addition of LS BMD to FN BMD provided a modest additional benefit in overall fracture risk. Further studies in individuals with spinal degenerative disease are needed., (Copyright © 2017 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: To identify genetic determinants of susceptibility to clinical vertebral fractures, which is an important complication of osteoporosis., Methods: Here we conduct a genome-wide association study in 1553 postmenopausal women with clinical vertebral fractures and 4340 controls, with a two-stage replication involving 1028 cases and 3762 controls. Potentially causal variants were identified using expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) data from transiliac bone biopsies and bioinformatic studies., Results: A locus tagged by rs10190845 was identified on chromosome 2q13, which was significantly associated with clinical vertebral fracture (P=1.04×10 -9 ) with a large effect size (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.6). Bioinformatic analysis of this locus identified several potentially functional SNPs that are associated with expression of the positional candidate genes TTL (tubulin tyrosine ligase) and SLC20A1 (solute carrier family 20 member 1). Three other suggestive loci were identified on chromosomes 1p31, 11q12 and 15q11. All these loci were novel and had not previously been associated with bone mineral density or clinical fractures., Conclusion: We have identified a novel genetic variant that is associated with clinical vertebral fractures by mechanisms that are independent of BMD. Further studies are now in progress to validate this association and evaluate the underlying mechanism., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Fracture caused by osteoporosis remains a major public health burden on contemporary populations because fracture is associated with a substantial increase in the risk of mortality. Early identification of high-risk individuals for prevention is a priority in osteoporosis research. Over the past decade, few risk prediction models, including the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (Garvan) and FRAX ® , have been developed to provide absolute (individualized) risk of fracture. Recent validation studies suggested that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in fracture discrimination ranged from 0.61 to 0.83 for FRAX ® and from 0.63 to 0.88 for Garvan, with hip fractures having a better discrimination than fragility fractures as a group. Although the prognostic performance of Garvan and FRAX ® for fracture prediction is not perfect and there is room for further improvement, these predictive models can aid patients and doctors communicate about fracture risk in the medium term and to make rational decisions. However, the application of these predictive models in making decisions for an individual should take into account the individual's perception of the importance of fracture relative to other diseases., (Copyright © 2017 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Few studies have examined the relationship between more-than-minimal-trauma fractures and bone density. This study demonstrated that more-than-minimal-trauma fractures are associated with lower bone density similar to that seen in minimal trauma fractures. Men and women over 50 years with a more-than-minimal-trauma fracture should be investigated to exclude low bone density., Introduction: The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and predictors of low bone density in men and women with more-than-minimal-trauma fractures., Methods: In an Australian hospital, 630 community-dwelling men and women, 20 years of age or older, sustained a fracture due to more-than-minimal-trauma (force greater than a fall from standing height but less than high trauma). We studied 349 individuals who agreed to have a bone mineral density (BMD) scan. These participants were compared with 472 men and women with minimal trauma fractures., Results: Men and women with more-than-minimal-trauma fractures had significantly lower bone density than expected for their age, gender and weight (Z-score spine  = -0.4 SD, 95 % confidence interval (CI), -0.5 to -0.3; Z-score hip  = -0.5 SD, 95 % CI, -0.6 to -0.4). Almost 1 in 4 of those over 50 years of age had osteoporosis by BMD criteria. The independent predictors of low bone density (T-score <-2.0 SD) were age equal to or over 50 years (odds ratio (OR) = 5.97, 95 % CI, 3.34 to 10.65), low body weight <20 kg/m 2 (OR = 3.44, 95 % CI, 1.32 to 8.94), a prior minimal trauma fracture (OR = 2.76, 95 % CI, 1.17-6.52) and in those over 50 years of age, an osteoporosis-associated condition (OR = 4.51, 95 % CI, 1.69 to 12.06). Men and women with more-than-minimal-trauma fractures had similar bone density (Z-score) compared to those with minimal trauma fractures., Conclusions: Men and women over 50 years with a more-than-minimal-trauma fracture, especially those with low body weight, prior minimal trauma fracture or an osteoporosis-associated condition, should be investigated to exclude low bone density and its associated risk of subsequent fractures.

Context: Hip fracture incidence has been declining and life expectancy improving. However, trends of postfracture outcomes are unknown., Objectives: The objective of the study was to compare the refracture risk and excess mortality after osteoporotic fracture between two birth cohorts, over 2 decades., Design: Prospective birth cohorts were followed up over 2 decades (1989-2004 and 2000-2014)., Setting: The study was conducted in community-dwelling participants in Dubbo, Australia., Participants: Women and men aged 60-80 years, participating in Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study 1 (DOES 1; born before 1930) and Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study 2 (DOES 2; born after 1930) participated in the study., Main Outcome Measure: Age-standardized fracture and mortality over two time intervals: (1989-2004 [DOES 1] and 2000-2014 [DOES 2]) were measured., Results: The DOES 2 cohort had higher body mass index and bone mineral density and lower initial fracture rate than DOES 1, but similar refracture rates [age-standardized refracture rates per 1000 person-years: women: 53 (95% confidence interval [CI] 42-63) and 51 (95% CI 41-60) and men: 53 (95% CI 38-69) and 55 (95% CI 40-71) for DOES 2 and DOES 1, respectively). Absolute postfracture mortality rates declined in DOES 2 compared with DOES 1, mirroring the improvement in general-population life expectancy. However, when compared with period-specific general-population mortality, there was a similar 2.1- to 2.6-fold increased mortality risk after a fracture in both cohorts (age-adjusted standardized mortality ratio, women: 2.05 [95% CI 1.43-2.83] and 2.43 [95% CI 1.95-2.99] and men: 2.56 [95% CI 1.78-3.58] and 2.48 [95% CI 1.87-3.22] for DOES 2 and DOES 1, respectively)., Conclusion: Over the 2 decades, despite the decline in the prevalence of fracture risk factors, general-population mortality, and initial fracture incidence, there was no improvement in postfracture outcomes. Refracture rates were similar and fracture-associated mortality was 2-fold higher than expected. These data indicate that the low postfracture treatment rates are still a major problem.

Unlabelled: Bone loss, a fracture risk factor, may play a role in post-fracture mortality. We found accelerated bone loss (≥1.31 % bone loss/year for women and ≥1.35 % bone loss/year for men) associated with 44-77 % increased mortality. It remains unclear whether bone loss is a marker or plays a role in mortality., Introduction: Osteoporotic fractures are associated with increased mortality although the cause is unknown. Bone loss, a risk factor for osteoporotic fracture is also associated with increased mortality, but its role in mortality risk post-fracture is unclear. This study aimed to examine post-fracture mortality risk according to levels of bone loss., Methods: Community-dwelling participants aged 60+ from Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study with incident fractures were followed from 1989 to 2011. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed according to bone loss quartiles. Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the effect of bone loss on mortality., Results: There were 341 women and 106 men with ≥2 BMD measurements. The rate of bone loss was similar for women and men (women mean -0.79 %/year, highest bone loss quartile -1.31 %/year; men mean -0.74 %/year, highest quartile -1.35 %/year). Survival was lowest for the highest quartile of bone loss for women (p < 0.005) and men (p = 0.05). When analysed by fracture type, the association of bone loss with mortality was observed for vertebral (highest vs lower 3 quartiles of bone loss, women p = 0.03 and men p = 0.02) and non-hip non-vertebral fractures in women (p < 0.0001). Bone loss did not play an additional role in mortality risk following hip fractures. Importantly, overall, rapid bone loss was associated with 44-77 % increased mortality risk after multiple variable adjustment., Conclusion: Rapid bone loss was an independent predictor of post-fracture mortality risk in both women and men. The association of bone loss and post-fracture mortality was predominantly observed following vertebral fracture in both women and men and non-hip non-vertebral fracture in women. It remains to be determined whether bone loss is a marker or plays a role in the mortality associated with fractures.

Summary: Odanacatib is a cathepsin K inhibitor investigated for the treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis. Phase 2 data indicate that 50 mg once weekly inhibits bone resorption and increases bone mineral density, with only a transient decrease in bone formation. We describe the background, design and participant characteristics for the phase 3 registration trial., Introduction: Odanacatib (ODN) is a selective cathepsin K inhibitor being evaluated for the treatment of osteoporosis. In a phase 2 trial, ODN 50 mg once weekly reduced bone resorption while preserving bone formation and progressively increased BMD over 5 years. We describe the phase III Long-Term ODN Fracture Trial (LOFT), an event-driven, randomized, blinded placebo-controlled trial, with preplanned interim analyses to permit early termination if significant fracture risk reduction was demonstrated. An extension was planned, with participants remaining on their randomized treatment for up to 5 years, then transitioning to open-label ODN., Methods: The three primary outcomes were radiologically determined vertebral, hip, and clinical non-vertebral fractures. Secondary end points included clinical vertebral fractures, BMD, bone turnover markers, and safety and tolerability, including bone histology. Participants were women, 65 years or older, with a BMD T-score≤-2.5 at the total hip (TH) or femoral neck (FN) or with a prior radiographic vertebral fracture and a T-score≤-1.5 at the TH or FN. They were randomized to ODN or placebo tablets. All received weekly vitamin D3 (5600 international units (IU)) and daily calcium supplements as needed to ensure a daily intake of approximately 1200 mg., Results: Altogether, 16,713 participants were randomized at 387 centers. After a planned interim analysis, an independent data monitoring committee recommended that the study be stopped early due to robust efficacy and a favorable benefit/risk profile. Following the base study closeout, 8256 participants entered the study extension., Conclusions: This report details the background and study design of this fracture end point trial and describes the baseline characteristics of its participants.

There are occasional marked discordances in BMD T-scores at the lumbar spine (LS) and femoral neck (FN). We investigated whether such discordances could contribute independently to fracture prediction using FRAX. We studied 21,158 women, average age 63 years, from 10 prospective cohorts with baseline FRAX variables as well as FN and LS BMD. Incident fractures were collected by self-report and/or radiographic reports. Extended Poisson regression examined the relationship between differences in LS and FN T-scores (ΔLS-FN) and fracture risk, adjusted for age, time since baseline and other factors including FRAX 10-year probability for major osteoporotic fracture calculated using FN BMD. To examine the effect of an adjustment for ΔLS-FN on reclassification, women were separated into risk categories by their FRAX major fracture probability. High risk was classified using two approaches: being above the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group intervention threshold or, separately, being in the highest third of each cohort. The absolute ΔLS-FN was greater than 2 SD for 2.5% of women and between 1 and 2 SD for 21%. ΔLS-FN was associated with a significant risk of fracture adjusted for baseline FRAX (HR per SD change = 1.09; 95% CI = 1.04-1.15). In reclassification analyses, only 2.3-3.2% of the women moved to a higher or lower risk category when using FRAX with ΔLS-FN compared with FN-derived FRAX alone. Adjustment of estimated fracture risk for a large LS/FN discrepancy (>2SD) impacts to a large extent on only a relatively small number of individuals. More moderate (1-2SD) discordances in FN and LS T-scores have a small impact on FRAX probabilities. This might still improve clinical decision-making, particularly in women with probabilities close to an intervention threshold.

Objective: High body mass index (BMI) is associated with increased risk of osteoarthritis (OA) and reduced risk of fragility fracture. However, the relationship between fragility fracture and OA remained unclear. This study sought to investigate the effect of bone mineral density (BMD) in the OA-fracture relationship., Methods: Data from 2412 women and 1452 men aged >45 years in the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study (DOES) were analyzed. Individuals have been followed for up to 22 years (median: 7.5 years; range: 0.1-22 years). Femoral neck BMD (FNBMD) and lumbar spine BMD (LSBMD) was measured by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) (GE LUNAR, Madison, WI). The presence of OA was ascertained at baseline by self-reported diagnosis. The incidence of low-trauma fracture was ascertained from X-ray reports., Results: Overall, 29% of women and 26% of men had reported a diagnosis of OA. Fracture risk was significantly higher in women with OA than those without OA (Hazard ratio (HR) = 1.50; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.28-1.76). However, the association was mainly observed in women with osteopenic BMD (HR = 1.74; 95% CI, 1.38-2.17) and normal-BMD (HR = 1.50; 95% CI, 1.06-2.13) and not in those with osteoporosis. Further analysis revealed that osteopenic women with OA had significant increase in risk of vertebral (HR = 1.85; 95% CI, 1.24-2.75) and limb fracture (HR = 2.49; 95% CI, 1.77-3.48), but not in hip fracture. In men, no comparable relationship was found before and after adjustment for covariates., Conclusion: Women with OA have an increased risk of fragility fracture, and the risk was mainly observed in non-osteoporotic group., (Copyright © 2014 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: A fracture liaison service model of care is widely recommended and applied, but data on its effectiveness are scarce. Therefore, the risk of subsequent nonvertebral fractures and mortality within two years after a nonvertebral fracture was analyzed in patients who presented to a hospital with a fracture liaison service and a hospital without a fracture liaison service., Methods: In 2005 to 2006, all consecutive patients with an age of fifty years or older presenting with a nonvertebral fracture were included. In the group that presented to a hospital without a fracture liaison service (the no-FLS group), only standard fracture care procedures were followed to address proper fracture-healing. In the group that presented to a hospital with a fracture liaison service (the FLS group), dual x-ray absorptiometry scans and laboratory testing were performed, and if applicable, patients were treated according to the Dutch guideline for osteoporosis. The risk for subsequent nonvertebral fracture and mortality were analyzed using multivariable Cox regression models with adjustments for age, sex, and baseline fracture location., Results: In total, 1412 patients presented to the fracture liaison service (73.2% were women, and the mean age was 71.1 years), and 1910 underwent standard fracture care (69.8% were women, and the mean age was 69.5 years). After adjustment for age, sex, and baseline fracture location, patients who attended the fracture liaison service had a significantly lower mortality risk (hazard ratio: 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53 to 0.79) over two years of follow-up. The subsequent nonvertebral fracture risk was also significantly lower in the patients in the FLS group, but this effect was time-dependent, with a hazard ratio of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.64 to 1.10) at twelve months and 0.44 (95% CI: 0.25 to 0.79) at twenty-four months., Conclusions: Patients seen at the fracture liaison service had a significantly lower mortality and subsequently a lower risk of nonvertebral fracture than those not seen at the fracture liaison service, with a reduction of 35% and 56%, respectively, over two years of follow-up. A fracture liaison service appears to be a successful approach to reduce the number of subsequent fractures and premature mortality in this cohort of patients.

Context: Nonhip nonvertebral fractures represent half of all osteoporotic fractures; however, their contribution to the burden of refracture and premature mortality is unclear., Objectives: To examine the risk and burden of subsequent fracture and mortality associated with an initial nonhip nonvertebral fracture., Setting and Participants: This is a prospective cohort from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study, 1989-2010 of community dwelling participants aged 60+ with incident fractures., Outcome Measures: Relative risk of all subsequent fractures and age-adjusted standardized mortality ratios were calculated according to initial fracture type. The total burden of adverse events was assessed using competing risk models with four potential outcomes: mortality after initial fracture, mortality after subsequent fracture, subsequent fracture and alive, or event-free., Results: Of the 952 fractures in women and 343 in men, over half were nonhip nonvertebral fractures (486 in women and 173 in men). Nonhip nonvertebral fractures were associated with increased risk of any subsequent fracture (1.95 [1.67-2.27] for women and 2.47 [1.82-3.35] for men), hip refracture (2.11 [1.04-4.28] for women and 2.63 [1.35-5.13] for men), and vertebral refracture (1.89 [1.43-2.48] for women and 2.13 [1.20-3.79] for men). More importantly, nonhip nonvertebral fractures were associated overall with 20% excess mortality for the first 5 years postfracture, of which approximately half were due to initial fracture and the remaining due to subsequent fractures. Proximal fractures were associated with increased mortality risk per se, whereas distal fractures were associated with increased mortality risk only in the group who sustained subsequent fractures., Conclusion: Nonhip nonvertebral fractures are associated with significant risk of subsequent fracture including hip and vertebral refracture, and premature mortality. Due to their high prevalence, about half of all subsequent fractures and a quarter of all fracture-related excess mortality were attributable to nonhip nonvertebral fracture. Thus nonhip nonvertebral fracture warrants early investigation and appropriate intervention.

Unlabelled: Hypertension is an independent risk factor for osteoporosis and osteoporotic fracture in postmenopausal women., Introduction: Although hypertension has been suggested to be associated with increased fracture risk, it is not clear whether the association is independent of bone mineral density (BMD). The present study sought to examine the interrelationships between hypertension, BMD, and fracture risk., Methods: The study included 1,032 men and 1,701 women aged 50 years and older who were participants in the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study. BMD at the femoral neck and lumbar spine was measured by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (GE-LUNAR Corp., Madison, WI, USA). The presence of hypertension was ascertained by direct interview and verification through clinical history. The incidence of fragility fractures was ascertained by X-ray report during the follow-up period (1989-2008). The Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the association between hypertension and fracture risk., Results: Women with hypertension had lower BMD at the femoral neck (0.79 versus 0.82 g/cm(2), P = 0.02) than those without the disease. After adjusting for BMD and covariates, hypertension was an independent risk factor for fragility fracture [hazard ratio (HR), 1.49; 95% CI, 1.13-1.96]. In men, hypertension was associated with higher femoral neck BMD (0.94 versus 0.92 g/cm(2), P = 0.02), but the association between hypertension and fracture risk did not reach statistical significance., Conclusion: Hypertension is associated with increased fracture risk in women, and the association is independent of BMD.

After fracture there is increased risk of refracture and premature mortality. These outcomes, particularly premature mortality following refracture, have not previously been studied together to understand overall mortality risk. This study examined the long-term cumulative incidence of subsequent fracture and total mortality with mortality calculated as a compound risk and separated according to initial and refracture. Community-dwelling participants aged 60+ years from Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study with incident fractures, followed prospectively for further fractures and deaths from 1989 to 2010. Subsequent fracture and mortality ascertained using cumulative incidence competing risk models allowing four possible outcomes: death without refracture; death following refracture; refracture but alive, and event-free. There were 952 women and 343 men with incident fracture. Within 5 years following initial fracture, 24% women and 20% men refractured; and 26% women and 37% men died without refracture. Of those who refractured, a further 50% of women and 75% of men died, so that total 5-year mortality was 39% in women and 51% in men. Excess mortality was 24% in women and 27% in men. Although mortality following refracture occurred predominantly in the first 5 years post-initial fracture, total mortality (post-initial and refracture) was elevated for 10 years. Most of the 5-year to 10-year excess mortality was associated with refracture. The long-term (>10 years) refracture rate was reduced, particularly in the elderly as a result of their high mortality rate. The 30% alive beyond 10 years postfracture were at low risk of further adverse outcomes. Refractures contribute substantially to overall mortality associated with fracture. The majority of the mortality and refractures occurred in the first 5 years following the initial fracture. However, excess mortality was observed for up to 10 years postfracture, predominantly related to that after refracture., (© 2013 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.)

Purpose of Review: Fragility fracture is a major public health burden, because it is associated with a substantial morbidity and mortality. Risk prediction models, including the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (GFRC), have been developed to provide a useful clinical framework for communicating the risk of fracture. The present review examines the validation of risk prediction models in osteoporosis and identifies some major challenges., Recent Findings: Recent validation studies suggested that the area under the ROC curve in fracture discrimination ranged from 0.61 to 0.83 for FRAX, and from 0.63 to 0.88 for GFRC, with hip fracture having a better discrimination than fragility fractures as a group. FRAX substantially underestimated the risk of fracture, whereas the predicted risk by GFRC was close to or slightly higher than the actual risk. Results of post-hoc analyses of clinical trials indicated the antifracture efficacy of alendronate, coronate, bazedoxifene, and denosumab was greater in patients with higher predicted risk of fracture. However, there was no correlation between antifracture efficacy and predicted fracture risk among patients on raloxifene and strontium ranelate., Summary: The prognostic performance of FRAX and GFRC for fracture prediction is not perfect, but these predictive models can aid patients and doctors to communicate about fracture risk in the medium term and to make rational decisions. However, the application of these predictive models in making decisions for an individual should take into account the individual's perception of the importance of the risk of fracture and its severity outcomes.

Low bone mineral density (BMD) is used as a parameter of osteoporosis. Genome-wide association studies of BMD have hitherto focused on BMD as a quantitative trait, yielding common variants of small effects that contribute to the population diversity in BMD. Here we use BMD as a dichotomous trait, searching for variants that may have a direct effect on the risk of pathologically low BMD rather than on the regulation of BMD in the healthy population. Through whole-genome sequencing of Icelandic individuals, we found a rare nonsense mutation within the leucine-rich-repeat-containing G-protein-coupled receptor 4 (LGR4) gene (c.376C>T) that is strongly associated with low BMD, and with osteoporotic fractures. This mutation leads to termination of LGR4 at position 126 and fully disrupts its function. The c.376C>T mutation is also associated with electrolyte imbalance, late onset of menarche and reduced testosterone levels, as well as an increased risk of squamous cell carcinoma of the skin and biliary tract cancer. Interestingly, the phenotype of carriers of the c.376C>T mutation overlaps that of Lgr4 mutant mice.

Most people presenting with incident osteoporotic fractures are neither assessed nor treated for osteoporosis to reduce their risk of further fractures, despite the availability of effective treatments. We evaluated the effectiveness of published models of care for the secondary prevention of osteoporotic fractures. We searched eight medical literature databases to identify reports published between 1996 and 2011, describing models of care for secondary fracture prevention. Information extracted from each publication included study design, patient characteristics, identification strategies, assessment and treatment initiation strategies, as well as outcome measures (rates of bone mineral density (BMD) testing, osteoporosis treatment initiation, adherence, re-fractures and cost-effectiveness). Meta-analyses of studies with valid control groups were conducted for two outcome measures: BMD testing and osteoporosis treatment initiation. Out of 574 references, 42 articles were identified as analysable. These studies were grouped into four general models of care-type A: identification, assessment and treatment of patients as part of the service; type B: similar to A, without treatment initiation; type C: alerting patients plus primary care physicians; and type D: patient education only. Meta-regressions revealed a trend towards increased BMD testing (p = 0.06) and treatment initiation (p = 0.03) with increasing intensity of intervention. One type A service with a valid control group showed a significant decrease in re-fractures. Types A and B services were cost-effective, although definition of cost-effectiveness varied between studies. Fully coordinated, intensive models of care for secondary fracture prevention are more effective in improving patient outcomes than approaches involving alerts and/or education only.

Background: Osteoporotic vertebral fractures are, as the hip fractures, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Norway has one of the highest reported incidences of hip fractures in the world. Because of methodological challenges, vertebral fractures are not extensively studied. The aim of this population based study was to describe, for the first time, the age- and sex specific occurrence of osteoporotic vertebral fractures in Norway., Methods: Data was collected in the Tromso Study, 2007/8 survey. By the use of dual x-ray absorptiometry (GE Lunar Prodigy) vertebral fracture assessments were performed in 2887 women and men aged from 38 to 87 years, in addition to measurements of bone mineral density at the femoral sites. Information on lifestyle was collected through questionnaires. Comparisons between fractures and non-fractures were done sex stratified, by univariate analyses, adjusting for age when relevant., Results: The prevalence of vertebral fractures varied from about 3% in the age group below 60 to about 19% in the 70+ group in women, and from 7.5% to about 20% in men, with an overall prevalence of 11.8% in women and 13.8% in men (p = 0.07). Among those with fractures, only one fracture was the most common; two and more fractures were present in approximately 30% of the cases. Fractures were seen from the fourth lumbar to the fifth thoracic vertebrae, most common between first lumbar and sixth thoracic vertebrae. The most common type of fracture was the wedge type in both sexes. Bone mineral density at the hip differed significantly according to type of fracture, being highest in those with wedge fractures and lowest in those with compression fractures., Conclusions: The prevalence of vertebral fractures increased by age in women and men, but the overall prevalence was lower than expected, considering the high prevalence of hip and forearm fractures in Norway. In both sexes, the wedge type was the fracture type most frequently observed and most common in the thoracic region.

Unlabelled: Denosumab is an injectable drug that reduces the risk of fractures. The objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of denosumab in a Swedish setting, also accounting for poor adherence to treatment. Denosumab is cost-effective, particularly for patients at high risk of fracture and low adherence to oral treatments., Introduction: Denosumab is a novel biologic agent developed for the treatment of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures that has been shown to reduce the risk of fractures in a phase III trial. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of denosumab from a societal perspective compared with generic alendronate, branded risedronate, strontium ranelate, and no treatment in a Swedish setting., Methods: A Markov cohort model was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of denosumab given for up to 5 years to a typical Swedish patient population (women aged 71 years, T-score ≤ -2.5 SD and a prevalence of morphometric vertebral fractures of 34%). The model included treatment persistence and residual effect after discontinuation assumed to be equal to the time on treatment. Persistence with the comparator treatments and with denosumab was derived from prescription data and a persistence study, respectively., Results: The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated at €27,000, €12,000, €5,000, and €14,000, for denosumab compared with generic alendronate, risedronate, strontium ranelate, and no treatment, respectively. Sub-optimal persistence had the greatest impact in the comparison with generic alendronate, where the difference in drug cost was large., Conclusion: Improving persistence with osteoporosis treatment impacts positively on cost-effectiveness with a larger number of fractures avoided in the population targeted for treatment. Denosumab is a cost-effective alternative to oral osteoporosis treatments, particularly for patients at high risk of fracture and low expected adherence to oral treatments., Competing Interests: Sponsored by Amgen.

Objectives: Previous fracture prediction models have been based on the assumption of a stable risk of subsequent fractures over time. The aim of the present work was to develop a nomogram for prediction of 5-year and 10-year individualised absolute fracture risks for postmenopausal women taking into account the time relation between fractures., Methods: A population-based prospective study was performed in 23 general practice centres located in the southern part of The Netherlands. At baseline (1992-1994), 4203 postmenopausal women between 50 and 80 years participated and 2372 of them also participated 10 years later. Baseline measurements included lumbar spine bone mineral density (BMD) and clinical risk factor evaluation. The incidence of fractures was ascertained. Bayesian model averaging and Cox's proportional hazards model were used., Results: After enrolment, 382 (16.1%) women had a clinical fracture. Fracture risk was associated with advancing age (HR 1.09 per SD (5 years); 95% CI 1.01 to 1.17), lumbar spine BMD (HR 1.23 per -1 SD; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.37) and a prior fracture, with HR 3.27 (95% CI 2.50 to 4.30) for a recent prior fracture (≤5 years previously) and HR 1.97 (95% CI 1.43 to 2.71) for a non-recent prior fracture after menopause (>5 years previously). Women with a recent prior fracture had 66% higher risk of an incident fracture than those with a non-recent prior fracture (HR 1.66; 95% CI 1.15 to 2.40)., Conclusions: The nomogram developed can help doctors to inform patients more effectively and thus better manage patient care by providing an individualised fracture risk taking into account the time relationship for fractures.

Unlabelled: We evaluated the prognostic accuracy of fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) and Garvan algorithms in an independent Australian cohort. The results suggest comparable performance in women but relatively poor fracture risk discrimination in men by FRAX. These data emphasize the importance of external validation before widespread clinical implementation of prognostic tools in different cohorts., Introduction: Absolute risk assessment is now recognized as a preferred approach to guide treatment decision. The present study sought to evaluate accuracy of the FRAX and Garvan algorithms for predicting absolute risk of osteoporotic fracture (hip, spine, humerus, or wrist), defined as major in FRAX, in a clinical setting in Australia., Methods: A retrospective validation study was conducted in 144 women (69 fractures and 75 controls) and 56 men (31 fractures and 25 controls) aged between 60 and 90 years. Relevant clinical data prior to fracture event were ascertained. Based on these variables, predicted 10-year probabilities of major fracture were calculated from the Garvan and FRAX algorithms, using US (FRAX-US) and UK databases (FRAX-UK). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was computed for each model., Results: In women, the average 10-year probability of major fracture was consistently higher in the fracture than in the nonfracture group: Garvan (0.33 vs. 0.15), FRAX-US (0.30 vs. 0.19), and FRAX-UK (0.17 vs. 0.10). In men, although the Garvan model yielded higher average probability of major fracture in the fracture group (0.32 vs. 0.14), the FRAX algorithm did not: FRAX-US (0.17 vs. 0.19) and FRAX-UK (0.09 vs. 0.12). In women, AUC for the Garvan, FRAX-US, and FRAX-UK algorithms were 0.84, 0.77, and 0.78, respectively, vs. 0.76, 0.54, and 0.57, respectively, in men., Conclusion: In this analysis, although both approaches were reasonably accurate in women, FRAX discriminated fracture risk poorly in men. These data support the concept that all algorithms need external validation before clinical implementation.