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Multiple genetic loci confer susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancers. We have previously developed a model (BOADICEA) under which susceptibility to breast cancer is explained by mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2, as well as by the joint multiplicative effects of many genes (polygenic component). We have now updated BOADICEA using additional family data from two UK population-based studies of breast cancer and family data from BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers identified by 22 population-based studies of breast or ovarian cancer. The combined data set includes 2785 families (301 BRCA1 positive and 236 BRCA2 positive). Incidences were smoothed using locally weighted regression techniques to avoid large variations between adjacent intervals. A birth cohort effect on the cancer risks was implemented, whereby each individual was assumed to develop cancer according to calendar period-specific incidences. The fitted model predicts that the average breast cancer risks in carriers increase in more recent birth cohorts. For example, the average cumulative breast cancer risk to age 70 years among BRCA1 carriers is 50% for women born in 1920-1929 and 58% among women born after 1950. The model was further extended to take into account the risks of male breast, prostate and pancreatic cancer, and to allow for the risk of multiple cancers. BOADICEA can be used to predict carrier probabilities and cancer risks to individuals with any family history, and has been implemented in a user-friendly Web-based program (http://www.srl.cam.ac.uk/genepi/boadicea/boadicea_home.html).

Germline mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 confer high risks of breast and ovarian cancer, but the average magnitude of these risks is uncertain and may depend on the context. Estimates based on multiple-case families may be enriched for mutations of higher risk and/or other familial risk factors, whereas risk estimates from studies based on cases unselected for family history have been imprecise. We pooled pedigree data from 22 studies involving 8,139 index case patients unselected for family history with female (86%) or male (2%) breast cancer or epithelial ovarian cancer (12%), 500 of whom had been found to carry a germline mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2. Breast and ovarian cancer incidence rates for mutation carriers were estimated using a modified segregation analysis, based on the occurrence of these cancers in the relatives of mutation-carrying index case patients. The average cumulative risks in BRCA1-mutation carriers by age 70 years were 65% (95% confidence interval 44%-78%) for breast cancer and 39% (18%-54%) for ovarian cancer. The corresponding estimates for BRCA2 were 45% (31%-56%) and 11% (2.4%-19%). Relative risks of breast cancer declined significantly with age for BRCA1-mutation carriers (P trend.0012) but not for BRCA2-mutation carriers. Risks in carriers were higher when based on index breast cancer cases diagnosed at <35 years of age. We found some evidence for a reduction in risk in women from earlier birth cohorts and for variation in risk by mutation position for both genes. The pattern of cancer risks was similar to those found in multiple-case families, but their absolute magnitudes were lower, particularly for BRCA2. The variation in risk by age at diagnosis of index case is consistent with the effects of other genes modifying cancer risk in carriers.

Germline mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes predispose to hereditary breast and ovarian cancer. Our aim was to find associations between the clinical characteristics and positive mutation status in 148 breast cancer families in order to predict the probability of finding a BRCA mutation in a family. Several factors were associated with mutations in univariate analysis, whereas in multivariate analysis (logistic regression with backward selection) only the age of the youngest breast cancer patient and the number of ovarian cancer cases in a family were independent predictors of BRCA mutations. A logistic model was devised to estimate the probability for a family of harbouring a mutation in either BRCA1 or BRCA2. Altogether, 63 out of 148 families (43%) and 28 out of 29 (97%) mutation carrier families obtained probabilities over 10%. The mean probability was 55% for mutation-positive families and 11% for mutation-negative families. The models by Couch et al (1997) and Shattuck-Eidens et al (1997) previously designed for BRCA1 were also tested for their applicability to distinguish carrier families with mutations in either gene. The probability model should be a useful tool in genetic counselling and focusing the mutation analyses, and thus increasing also the cost-effectiveness of the genetic screening., (Copyright 2001 Cancer Research Campaign.)

In the Finnish breast and ovarian cancer families six BRCA1 and five BRCA2 mutations have been found recurrently. Some of these recurrent mutations have also been seen elsewhere in the world, while others are exclusively of Finnish origin. A haplotype analysis of 26 Finnish families carrying a BRCA1 mutation and 20 families with a BRCA2 mutation indicated that the carriers of each recurrent mutation have common ancestors. The common ancestors were estimated to trace back to 7-36 generations (150-800 years). The time estimates and the geographical clustering of these founder mutations in Finland are in concordance with the population history of this country. Analysis of the cancer phenotypes showed differential ovarian cancer expression in families carrying mutations in the 5' and 3' ends of the BRCA1 gene, and earlier age of ovarian cancer onset in families with BRCA1 mutations compared with families with BRCA2 mutations. The identification of prominent and regional BRCA1 and BRCA2 founder mutations in Finland will have significant impact on diagnostics in Finnish breast and ovarian cancer families. An isolated population with known history and multiple local founder effects in multigenic disease may offer distinct advantages also for mapping novel predisposing genes.

We evaluate the validity of the family history of breast cancer reported by the patient and the number of families and individuals at risk and potentially benefiting from surveillance. Family history of cancer was systematically screened in three different series of breast cancer patients. Breast cancer families were defined by the selection criterion of at least three first- or second-degree relatives with breast or ovarian cancer (including the proband) and their genealogy and cancer diagnoses were confirmed. Family history of breast or ovarian cancer was reported by approximately 30% of the patients and 7-9% were classified as breast cancer families. On average, there were 3.1 healthy female (age: 20-70 years) first degree relatives per family potentially at high risk. Index patients reported 87% of all confirmed diagnoses and the primary site was correct in 93-95% of the reported cases. The incompleteness and errors in accuracy should be considered in epidemiological studies and verification of the diagnoses is important when deciding clinical management.

One hundred breast cancer families were identified at the Helsinki University Central Hospital in Finland and were screened for germ-line mutations in the coding regions and splice boundaries of the BRCA2 gene. Eight families (8%) were found to carry five different mutations, all of which are predicted to prematurely truncate the protein product. These BRCA2 families have early-onset breast cancer (mean and median age = 49 years), with four of the eight families including ovarian cancer but with no families including male breast cancer. A wide spectrum of other cancers also is seen in these families. Three mutations were identified in more than one family, and haplotype analysis in the families suggested a common founder for each recurrent mutation. One recurrent mutation, 999del5, previously has been noted as a common mutation in Iceland. The relationship between the Icelandic 999del5 mutation and the Finnish 999del5 mutation was explored by comparison of families from both countries. A common haplotype covering a minimal region intragenic to the BRCA2 gene was shared between the Icelandic and the Finnish mutation carriers.