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Background: Our objective is to estimate the effects of therapeutic oxytocin supply chain factors and social determinants of health on patient access to oxytocin in low-income settings using system dynamics modeling. Postpartum hemorrhage (PPH), a major cause of maternal mortality disproportionately affects women in low and middle income countries (LMICs). The World Health Organization recommends therapeutic oxytocin as the frontline uterotonic for PPH management and prevention. However, lack of access to quality therapeutic oxytocin in Tanzania, and throughout Sub-Saharan Africa, continues to result in a high number of preventable maternal deaths., Methods: We used publicly available data from Zanzibar and Sub-Saharan Africa, literature review, oxytocin degradation kinetics and previously developed systems dynamics models to understand the barriers in patient access to quality therapeutic oxytocin., Results: The model makes four basic predictions. First, there is a major gap between therapeutic oxytocin procurement and availability. Second, it predicts that at current population increase rates, oxytocin supply will have to be doubled in the next 30 years. Third, supply and storage temperature until 30 °C has minimal effect on oxytocin quality and finally distance of 5 km or less to birthing facility has a small effect on overall access to oxytocin., Conclusions: The model provides a systems level approach to therapeutic oxytocin access, incorporating supply and procurement, socio-economic factors, as well as storage conditions to understand how women's access to oxytocin over time can be sustained for better health outcomes.

Poor intra-facility maternity care is a major contributor to maternal mortality in low- and middle-income countries. Close to 830 women die each day due to preventable maternal complications, partly due to the increasing number of women giving birth in health facilities that are not adequately resourced to manage growing patient populations. Barriers to adequate care during the ‘last mile’ of healthcare delivery are attributable to deficiencies at multiple levels: education, staff, medication, facilities, and delays in receiving care. Moreover, the scope and multi-scale interdependence of these factors make individual contributions of each challenging to analyze, particularly in settings where basic data registration is often lacking. To address this need, we have designed and implemented a novel systems-level and dynamic mathematical model that simulates the impact of hospital resource allocations on maternal mortality rates at Mnazi Mmoja Hospital (MMH), a referral hospital in Zanzibar, Tanzania. The purpose of this model is to provide a rigorous and flexible tool that enables hospital administrators and public health officials to quantitatively analyze the impact of resource constraints on patient outcomes within the maternity ward, and prioritize key areas for further human or capital investment. Currently, no such tool exists to assist administrators and policy makers with effective resource allocation and planning. This paper describes the structure and construct of the model, provides validation of the assumptions made with anonymized patient data and discusses the predictive capacity of our model. Application of the model to specific resource allocations, maternal treatment plans, and hospital loads at MMH indicates through quantitative results that medicine stocking schedules and staff allocations are key areas that can be addressed to reduce mortality by up to 5-fold. With data-driven evidence provided by the model, hospital staff, administration, and the local ministries of health can enact policy changes and implement targeted interventions to improve maternal health outcomes at MMH. While our model is able to determine specific gaps in resources and health care delivery specifically at MMH, the model should be viewed as an additional tool that may be used by other facilities seeking to analyze and improve maternal health outcomes in resource constrained environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]