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3 results on '"Olivie, D"'

1. Future impact of non-land based traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH - an optimistic scenario and a possible mitigation strategy

Author

Hodnebrog, O., Berntsen, T. K, Dessens, O., Gauss, M., Grewe, V., Isaksen, I. S. A, Koffi, B., Myhre, G., Olivie, D., Prather, M. J, Pyle, J. A, Stordal, F., Szopa, S., Tang, Q., van Velthoven, P., Williams, J. E, and Odemark, K.

Subjects
atmospheric chemistry, atmospheric modeling, boundary layer, chemical composition, ozone, radiative forcing, traffic emission
Abstract

The impact of future emissions from aviation and shipping on the atmospheric chemical composition has been estimated using an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models. This study considers an optimistic emission scenario (B1) taking into account e.g. rapid introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies, and a mitigation option for the aircraft sector (B1 ACARE), assuming further technological improvements. Results from sensitivity simulations, where emissions from each of the transport sectors were reduced by 5%, show that emissions from both aircraft and shipping will have a larger impact on atmospheric ozone and OH in near future (2025; B1) and for longer time horizons (2050; B1) compared to recent time (2000). However, the ozone and OH impact from aircraft can be reduced substantially in 2050 if the technological improvements considered in the B1 ACARE will be achieved. Shipping emissions have the largest impact in the marine boundary layer and their ozone contribution may exceed 4 ppbv (when scaling the response of the 5% emission perturbation to 100% by applying a factor 20) over the North Atlantic Ocean in the future (2050; B1) during northern summer (July). In the zonal mean, ship-induced ozone relative to the background levels may exceed 12% near the surface. Corresponding numbers for OH are 6.0 × 105 molecules cm−3 and 30%, respectively. This large impact on OH from shipping leads to a relative methane lifetime reduction of 3.92 (±0.48) on the global average in 2050 B1 (ensemble mean CH4 lifetime is 8.0 (±1.0) yr), compared to 3.68 (±0.47)% in 2000. Aircraft emissions have about 4 times higher ozone enhancement efficiency (ozone molecules enhanced relative to NOx molecules emitted) than shipping emissions, and the maximum impact is found in the UTLS region. Zonal mean aircraft-induced ozone could reach up to 5 ppbv at northern mid- and high latitudes during future summer (July 2050; B1), while the relative impact peaks during northern winter (January) with a contribution of 4.2%. Although the aviation-induced impact on OH is lower than for shipping, it still causes a reduction in the relative methane lifetime of 1.68 (±0.38)% in 2050 B1. However, for B1 ACARE the perturbation is reduced to 1.17 (±0.28)%, which is lower than the year 2000 estimate of 1.30 (±0.30)%. Based on the fully scaled perturbations we calculate net radiative forcings from the six models taking into account ozone, methane (including stratospheric water vapour), and methane-induced ozone changes. For the B1 scenario, shipping leads to a net cooling with radiative forcings of −28.0 (±5.1) and −30.8 (±4.8) mW m−2 in 2025 and 2050, respectively, due to the large impact on OH and, thereby, methane lifetime reductions. Corresponding values for the aviation sector shows a net warming effect with 3.8 (±6.1) and 1.9 (±6.3) mW m−2, respectively, but with a small net cooling of -0.6 (±4.6) mW m−2 for B1 ACARE in 2050.

Published
2011

2. The impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH: results from QUANTIFY

Author

Hoor, P., Borken-Kleefeld, J., Caro, D., Dessens, O., Endresen, O., Gauss, M., Grewe, V., Hauglustaine, D., Isaksen, I. S. A, Jöckel, P., Lelieveld, J., Myhre, G., Meijer, E., Olivie, D., Prather, M., Schnadt Poberaj, C., Shine, K. P, Staehelin, J., Tang, Q., van Aardenne, J., van Velthoven, P., and Sausen, R.

Subjects
ozone, hydroxide, OH, air pollution, shipping
Published
2009

3. Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century

Author

Oman, L. D., Plummer, D. A., Waugh, D. W., Austin, J., Scinocca, J. F., Douglass, A. R., Salawitch, R. J., Canty, T., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, Slimane, Braesicke, P., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Cugnet, David, Dhomse, S., Eyring, V., Frith, S., Hardiman, S. C., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque, J.-F., Mancini, E., Marchand, Marion, Michou, M., Morgenstern, Olaf, Nakamura, T., Nielsen, J. E., Olivie, D., Pitari, G., Pyle, J., Rozanov, E., Shepherd, T. G., Shibata, K., Stolarski, R. S., Teyssedre, H., Tian, W., Yamashita, Y., Ziemke, J. R., Morton K. Blaustein Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Baltimore], Johns Hopkins University (JHU), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), STRATO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NCAS-Climate [Cambridge], Department of Chemistry [Cambridge, UK], University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM)-University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds, DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] (DLR), Science Systems and Applications, Inc. [Lanham] (SSAI), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), University of L'Aquila [Italy] (UNIVAQ), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Lauder] (NIWA), Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Department of Physics [Toronto], University of Toronto, Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), NASA, MAP, ACMAP, Aura programs, NSF Large‐scale Climate Dynamics program., European Commission, European Project: 226365,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2008-1,RECONCILE(2009), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], ozone, Stratospheric ozone, future evolution, stratosphere, Climate change, chemistry-climate models, CCMVal
Abstract

International audience; The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from 14 chemistry-climate models, driven by prescribed levels of halogens and greenhouse gases. There is general agreement among the models that total column ozone reached a minimum around year 2000 at all latitudes, projected to be followed by an increase over the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the 21st century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off, or even decrease depending on the latitude. Separation into partial columns above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely caused by differences in the model projections of ozone in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and is projected to return to 1960 levels well before the end of the century, although there is a spread among models in the dates that ozone returns to specific historical values. We find decreasing halogens and declining upper atmospheric temperatures, driven by increasing greenhouse gases, contribute almost equally to increases in upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, an increase in upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in most of the models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century, returning to 1960 levels well before the end of the century in most models.

Published
2010
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