Search

We explore the sensitivity of the simulation of photochemical smog to the turbulent mixing scheme, using two diffusion schemes and an original two-stream model (TSM) scheme, assuming in the column an updraft and a downdraft. In this latter scheme both updraft and downdraft concentrations are prognostic variables, unlike in previously proposed schemes. The comparisons are made using a one-dimensional column model, in a Eulerian or a Lagrangian mode. The diffusion schemes produce tilted concentration profiles for primary species, with higher concentrations near the surface and lower values at the top of the boundary layer, while TSM profiles yield more homogeneous concentrations in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Ozone concentrations are also more homogeneous in the TSM PBL than in the diffusive PBL. Only deposition makes ozone concentrations slightly lower near the surface, while in diffusive case ozone is lower also due to titration by higher nitrogen oxide concentrations. The overall differences between the schemes remain small for ozone. Also, the development time and amplitude of an ozone city plume is not very sensitive to the choice of the mixing scheme. In the urban framework ozone build-up is slightly delayed by higher nitrogen oxide concentrations near the surface in the diffusive cases, but the plume development is similar to that of the TSM once the plume travels away from the emission area. Results also show that the sensitivity of ozone to nitrogen oxide and non-methane volatile organic compounds is itself not very sensitive to the mixing scheme. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The extremely warm summer of 2003, with its August heat wave, is taken as a prototype of future summer weather in Europe. The stagnant circulation led to accumulation of heat and pollutants, increased forest fires, and induced high ozone and particulate matter levels. After a description of the meteorological conditions encountered, we review here the effects of the heat-wave meteorology on photochemistry, wild fires, and particulate matter, at the continental and urban scales. We discuss the extent to which this special summer can be taken for projecting air quality in a future warmer climate, especially in the perspective of changes in regional and global emissions. For ozone, the effect of regional reduction of emissions will dominate over summer climate change, but the increase in baseline ozone should significantly raise the mean ozone levels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Two photochemical smog modeling systems, UAM-V/SAIMM (the Variable-Grid UAM/Systems Applications International Mesoscale Model) and CHIMERE/ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast), are applied to the same tropical domain (Bangkok Metropolitan Region) and the same episode (January 13-14, 1997) to evaluate their relative performance using the same anthropogenic emission database (emission data-base available at the Pollution Control Department [PCD] 1997). Ozone (O3) produced by both models meets U.S. Environment Protection Agency (EPA) suggested prediction criteria of mean normalized bias error and mean normalized gross error on January 14 but none on January 13. Both models are tested with various modified databases of precursors emissions from the PCD original database. Performance of UAM-V is the best when using the modified emission data with volatile organic compound (VOC), NOx, and CO mobile source emission reduced by 50%, 50%, and 20% from the original database. CHIMERE suggests a similar emission database except for the VOC emission, which is a reduction by 40% from the original PCD mobile source emission. Spatial and temporal variations of O3, CO, NOy (total reactive nitrogen), and Ox (NO2 + O3) predicted by both model systems using the modified emissions are compared with observations. The agreement between the two models is better than their agreement with observations. The difference between the results reflects the gaps in our current knowledge of photochemistry. With the respective modified emission database, CHIMERE produces comparable results with UAM-V for all considered parameters, and O3 simulated by both models does meet all of the EPA suggested criteria. Both models predict similar results of O3 productions with various combinations of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions in Bangkok and surrounding provinces. The simulated minumum O3 and maximum NOy in the city by both modeling systems with the modified emission database on January 14 are comparable to observed data; therefore, it is considered that the modeling tool can be used for studying the sensitivity of ozone formation to precursor emission reduction for Bangkok. Both model responses to emission reductions show similar trends, which indicate that the O3 formation in Bangkok is more sensitive to VOC than NOx emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: More than ten state-of-the-art regional air quality models have been applied as part of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). These models were run by twenty independent groups in Europe and North America. Standardised modelling outputs over a full year (2006) from each group have been shared on the web-distributed ENSEMBLE system, which allows for statistical and ensemble analyses to be performed by each group. The estimated ground-level ozone mixing ratios from the models are collectively examined in an ensemble fashion and evaluated against a large set of observations from both continents. The scale of the exercise is unprecedented and offers a unique opportunity to investigate methodologies for generating skilful ensembles of regional air quality models outputs. Despite the remarkable progress of ensemble air quality modelling over the past decade, there are still outstanding questions regarding this technique. Among them, what is the best and most beneficial way to build an ensemble of members? And how should the optimum size of the ensemble be determined in order to capture data variability as well as keeping the error low? These questions are addressed here by looking at optimal ensemble size and quality of the members. The analysis carried out is based on systematic minimization of the model error and is important for performing diagnostic/probabilistic model evaluation. It is shown that the most commonly used multi-model approach, namely the average over all available members, can be outperformed by subsets of members optimally selected in terms of bias, error, and correlation. More importantly, this result does not strictly depend on the skill of the individual members, but may require the inclusion of low-ranking skill-score members. A clustering methodology is applied to discern among members and to build a skilful ensemble based on model association and data clustering, which makes no use of priori knowledge of model skill. Results show that, while the methodology needs further refinement, by optimally selecting the cluster distance and association criteria, this approach can be useful for model applications beyond those strictly related to model evaluation, such as air quality forecasting. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Ground-level ozone concentrations in the atmospheric boundary layer over Spain are still exceeding thresholds established in EU legislation to protect human health and prevent damage to ecosystems. The increasing role that air quality models play in air quality management requires comparison between model results and previous observations in order to determine the capacity of the model to reproduce past events. The CHIMERE chemistry-transport model has been used by several research groups to estimate air pollutant concentrations in different European countries. An evaluation of the model performance of the CHIMERE air quality model was carried out for the spring and summer periods of 2003–2005 in Spain, using EMEP emissions. This evaluation has demonstrated a fair agreement between observed and modelled ozone values for background stations, with a mean normalized absolute error below 15% for rural background air quality sites. This value lays inside the range proposed in EPA''s guideline for an acceptable level of model performance. In spite of this acceptable model performance, further studies need to be carried out to explain some underestimation found over Madrid surroundings. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The evolution of ozone and nitrogen dioxide over Europe between the present day and a future period with a +2 °C global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate was studied using four offline chemistry transport models, each driven by a different climate model. Given the recent outcome of the COP21 negotiations, understanding the implications of climate change around the +2 °C threshold has never been more pressing or relevant. One of the objectives of this study was to show how changes in anthropogenic emissions and +2 °C climate change are expected to affect future air quality, which may have important implications upon human health. It was found that a +2 °C climate change alone was responsible for a modest, and not statistically significant, increase in surface O 3 concentrations (of between −0.1–0.8 ppb in the summer averaged over the European domain) compared to the present climate. Two different emission scenarios were used for the future time period in order to provide an estimate of the extent of air pollution reductions that could occur if (a) all currently planned air quality legislation is implemented and (b) all maximum technologically feasible emission reductions are implemented. The results showed that summer O 3 could be reduced by between 4 and 5 ppb under a current legislation scenario, with at least 3 ppb of further reductions under the maximum mitigated scenario. Calculations of summer ozone enhancement were used as a metric to analyse the results after having removed background ozone level changes. In conclusion it was found that future air quality on a regional scale will depend upon the implementation of effective emission reduction policy; the positive effects of which should not be hindered by a +2 °C global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of meteorological forcings on gas phase air pollutants (ozone and nitrogen dioxide) over Europe was studied using four offline chemistry transport models (CTMs) as part of the IMPACT2C project. This study uses long (20- and 30-year) simulations to evaluate the present-day performance of the CTMs, which is a necessary first step before undertaking any analysis of future air quality impacts. Two sets of meteorological forcings were used for each model: reanalysis of past observation data (ERA-Interim) and Global Climate Model (GCM) output. The results for the simulations forced by reanalysis data were assessed in relation to AirBase v7 measurement data, and it was determined that all four models slightly overpredict annual O 3 values (mean biases range between 0.7 and 6.6 ppb) and three out of the four models underpredict observed annual NO 2 (mean biases range between −3.1 and −5.2 ppb). The simulations forced by climate models result in spatially averaged monthly concentrations of O 3 that are generally between 0 and 5 ppb higher than the values obtained from simulations forced by reanalysis data; therefore it was concluded that the use of climate models introduces an additional bias to the results, but this bias tends not to be significant in the majority of cases. The bias in O 3 results appears to be correlated mainly to differences in temperature and boundary layer height between the two types of simulations, whereas the less significant bias in NO 2 is negatively correlated to temperature and boundary layer height. It is also clear that the selection of chemical boundary conditions is an important factor in determining the variability of O 3 model results. These results will be used as a baseline for the interpretation of future work, which will include an analysis of future climate scenarios upon European air quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: At the onset of the 2010 statutory deadline for the respect of the European National Emission Ceiling directive, two questions arise. Will the engaged regulations for the respect of ozone air quality thresholds be fully efficient on the most polluted regions? How can we design the continuation of ozone control in those areas? This study is based on refined 3D modelling studies over a French Mediterranean region. It compares 2001 and 2003 situations with several prospective 2010 emission scenarios with, for the first time, the evaluation of local action plans. The degree of compliance with air quality regulation is investigated and the impact of emission control on the local potential for ozone formation is discussed. The results show that current efforts on emissions, although substantial and efficient, are not sufficient yet to abrogate all the ozone threshold exceedances. They also highlight the gap between regulatory and effective emission control, as well as the need for regional regulations to complete national efforts. Finally, the simulations indicate that large-scale emission control significantly helps reducing rural ozone (−20 ppbv) but affects much fewer (−2 to −10 ppbv) the highest peaks. The continuation and the strengthening of ozone policies under their current form in such regions are considered. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]