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Abstract In recent decades, it has been observed that most forest fires in Europe were caused by people. Extreme droughts, which are more often prolonged, can increase the risk of forest fires, not only in southern Europe but also, in Central Europe. Nonetheless, catastrophic fire events are not well recognized in the Central European Lowlands (CEL), where large forest complexes are located. Knowledge of past fire activity in this part of Europe is scarce, although several fires have occurred in this area during the previous millennia. Large coniferous forest monocultures located in the CEL are highly susceptible to fires and other disturbances. Here, we present a case study from the Tuchola Pinewoods (TP; northern Poland), where large pine monocultures are present. The main aim of this study is to document the potential effects past land management has on modern day disturbance regimes using state-of-the-art paleoecological data, historical documents and cartographic materials. We then present a protocol that will help forest managers utilize long-term paleoecological records. Based on paleoecological investigations, historical documents, and cartographic materials, our results show that, in the past 300 years, the TP witnessed not only disastrous fires and but also windfalls by tornados and insect outbreaks. A change in management from Polish to Prussian/German in the 18th century led to the transformation of mixed forests into Scots pine monocultures with the purpose to allow better economic use of the forest. Those administrative decisions led to an ecosystem highly susceptible to disturbances. This article provides a critical review of past forest management as well as future research directions related to the impacts of fire risk on land management and ecosystem services: (a) habitat composition and structure (biodiversity); (b) natural water management; and (c) mitigation of climate changes. Designated forest conditions, management, and future fire risk are a controversial and highly debated topic of forest management by Forestry Units. More research will allow the gathering of reliable information pertinent to management practices with regard to the current fire risks. It is necessary to develop a dialog between scientists and managers to reduce the risk of fires in projected climate change. Highlights • Paleoecological and historical data should support forest management strategies. • Long-term perspective helps define reference conditions and disturbance regimes of the forest. • Paleoecological data strongly support forest management strategies and fire-risk assessment. • Dialog between scientists and managers is crucial for proper ecosystem management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Sound taxonomy is a major requirement for quantitative environmental reconstruction using biological data. Transfer function performance should theoretically be expected to decrease with reduced taxonomic resolution. However for many groups of organisms taxonomy is imperfect and species level identification not always possible. We conducted numerical experiments on five testate amoeba water table (DWT) transfer function data sets. We sequentially reduced the number of taxonomic groups by successively merging morphologically similar species and removing inconspicuous species. We then assessed how these changes affected model performance and palaeoenvironmental reconstruction using two fossil data sets. Model performance decreased with decreasing taxonomic resolution, but this had only limited effects on patterns of inferred DWT, at least to detect major dry/wet shifts. Higher-resolution taxonomy may however still be useful to detect more subtle changes, or for reconstructed shifts to be significant. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In rich fens, unlike bogs, the key drivers structuring testate amoeba communities are related to nutrient status, suggesting the potential for transfer functions to quantitatively reconstruct changing nutrient status from palaeoecological records. Such records could be useful tools to investigate the long-term impacts of pollution and landscape change. Here, we derive and test transfer functions for pH, water-table depth, conductivity and Ca and Mg concentrations using a data set from Polish fens. Results show that transfer functions for Ca and conductivity have apparent predictive power for surface samples; these models will require further validation and testing with palaeoecological data. Testate amoeba transfer functions for fen nutrient status may be a valuable addition to the peatland palaeoecologist’s tool-kit, although further work will be required to demonstrate their usefulness in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Payne, R. J., Lamentowicz, M. & Mitchell, E. A. D. 2010: The perils of taxonomic inconsistency in quantitative palaeoecology: experiments with testate amoeba data. Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502-3885.2010.00174.x. ISSN 0300-9483. A fundamental requirement of quantitative palaeoecology is consistent taxonomy between a modern training set and palaeoecological data. In this study we assess the possible consequences of violation of this requirement by simulating taxonomic errors in testate amoeba data. Combinations of easily confused taxa were selected, and data manipulated to reflect confusion of these taxa; transfer functions based on unmodified data were then applied to these modified data sets. Initially these experiments were carried out one error at a time using four modern training sets; subsequently, multiple errors were separately simulated both in four modern training sets and in four palaeoecological data sets. Some plausible taxonomic confusions caused major biases in reconstructed values. In the case of two palaeoecological data sets, a single consistent taxonomic error was capable of changing the pattern of environmental reconstruction beyond all recognition, totally removing any real palaeoenvironmental signal. The issue of taxonomic consistency is one that many researchers would rather ignore; our results show that the consequences of this may ultimately be severe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Holocene developmental history of a small kettle-hole peatland in northern Poland was studied using radiocarbon dating and analyses of pollen, plant macrofossils and testate amoebae with the aim of sorting out the influences of climate change, autogenic succession and human impact. The mire followed the classical succession from lake to a Sphagnum-dominated peatland, but peat accumulation only started about 3000 cal. BP. A rapid shift to wetter conditions, lower pH and higher peat accumulation rate took place about 110-150 years before present, when the vegetation shifted to a Sphagnum-dominated poor fen with some bog plants. While the first shift to a peat-accumulating system was most likely driven by climate, the second one was probably caused by forest clearance around the mire. This shift towards a Sphagnum-dominated vegetation mirrors both in pattern and timing the changes observed in similar situations in North America and New Zealand. While human activities have overall caused the loss of vast expanses of peatlands worldwide in recent centuries, locally they may have also allowed the development of communities that are now ironically considered to have a high conservation value. However, in the case of the site studied the likely anthropogenic shift to bog vegetation was at the expense of a species-rich poor fen, which today has even higher conservation value than ombrotrophic bogs. Thus this study also illustrates the value of palaeoecology for peatland management and biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human impact on Central European forests dates back thousands of years. In this study we reanalyzed 36 published pollen data sets with robust chronologies from Polish Lowlands to determine the patterns of large-scale forest decline after the Migration Period (fourth to sixth century CE). The study revealed substantial heterogeneity in the old-growth forest decline patterns. Using new high-resolution studies, we could better understand the timing of this transition related to increasing economic development. After the Migration Period, forest expansion continued until the seventh to ninth centuries cal. CE, when the dawn of Slavic culture resulted in large-scale forest decline, especially in north-western and north-central Poland. Later, forest decline was recorded mainly in north-eastern Poland and was related to Prussian settlements, including activities associated with the Teutonic Order, as well as with new settlements from the fourteenth century. The composite picture shows a varied spatio-temporal forest loss and transition towards the present-day, human activity dominated landscapes. However, some sites, such as in north-eastern Poland, are characterized by a less abrupt critical transition. The pristine nature of the oak-hornbeam forest had already been destroyed in Early Medieval times (eighth to ninth centuries cal. CE) and the potential for recovery was largely lost. Our study has confirmed previous assumptions that the decline of hornbeam across the Polish Lowlands may be an early indicator of local settlement processes, preceding severe forest loss, and establishment of permanent agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatlands are important records of past environmental changes. Based on a multiproxy analysis, the main factors influencing the evolution of a peatland can be divided into autogenic and allogenic. Among the important allogenic factors, apart from climate change, are deforestation and drainage, which are directly associated with human impact. Numerous consequences arise from these processes, the most important of which are physical and chemical denudation in the catchment and the related hydrological disturbances in the catchment and peatland. The present study determined how human activities and the past climatic variability mutually influenced the development of a small peatland ecosystem. The main goals of the study were: (1) to trace the local changes of the peatland history over the past 600 years, (2) to investigate their relationship with changes in regional hydroclimate patterns, and (3) to estimate the sensitivity of a small peatland to natural and human impact. Our reconstructions were based on a multiproxy analysis, including the analysis of pollen, macrofossils, Chironomidae, Cladocera, and testate amoebae. Our results showed that, depending on the changes in water level, the history of peatland can be divided into three phases as follows: 1/the phase of stable natural conditions, 2/phase of weak changes, and 3/phase of significant changes in the catchment. Additionally, to better understand the importance of the size of catchment and the size of the depositional basin in the evolution of the studied peatland ecosystem, we compared data from two peatlands – large and small – located close to each other. The results of our study indicated that "size matters," and that larger peatlands are much more resilient and resistant to rapid changes occurring in the direct catchment due to human activities, whereas small peatlands are more sensitive and perfect as archives of environmental changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explored the past environmental history inferred from a fen located in northwestern Poland, in a historically important location. Pollen, plant macrofossils, micro- and macrocharcoal particles, and non-pollen palynomorphs were analyzed continuously in a 1-cm resolution, supplemented with archeological data and historical written sources. The last 1200-year environmental history of the fen was supported with accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon (14C) dating (19 dates per 172 cm of the profile) and validated by 59 210 Pb dates. Our research showed that primeval oak–hornbeam forests near the Kazanie mire disappeared gradually, starting from 1035 ± 20 cal. yr CE, due to the economic development of the newly formed Polish (Piast) statehood. The pollen data revealed no shortage of oak timber during the 11th century, as recorded by previous studies in the area between Poznań and Gniezno. The Czech invasion in 1039 CE, which was associated with mass depopulation and domestic crisis, seemed to be manifested by the increase of pioneer Betula taking advantage of weaker human impact. Substantial land-use changes started with the further development of Polish statehood between the 15th and the 16th century CE, as reflected by cultivated land, ruderal, and meadow and pasture pollen indicators, as well as the rise of microcharcoal influx. The economy of Poland was disrupted by a noticeable socioeconomic collapse in the 17th century CE, which caused depopulation (by approximately 67.5%) and a decline in arable land (by 35%). Paleoecological data reflect this socio-environmental crisis with a decrease in all anthropogenic indicators, rapid forest regeneration, and secondary succession of pine on the abandoned land. According to palynological data, rapid landscape transformation due to agricultural reforms and industrialization commenced in the 19th century CE and was associated with the expansion of pastures, meadows, and arable lands. The following rapid decrease of cultivated land pollen indicators in 1940 ± 10 cal. yr CE is linked with the economic collapse after World War II and/or the implementation of new crops which produce less pollen. • Diverse ecological responses to socioeconomic transitions related to Polish state development. • Paleoecological data validate the archeological and historical sources. • The gradual loss of the pristine forest during the development of Polish state. • Post-17th-century crisis triggered 200-year-long, secondary succession of Scots pine on abandoned land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population dynamics is a field rich in theory and poor in long-term observational data. Finding sources of long-term data is critical as ecosystems around the globe continue to change in ways that current theories and models have failed to predict. Here we show how long-term ecological data can improve our understanding about palaeo-population change in response to external environmental factors, antecedent conditions and community diversity., We examined a radiometrically dated sediment core from the Didachara Mire in the mountains of south-western Georgia (Caucasus) and analysed multiple biological proxies (pollen, fern spores, non-pollen palynomorphs, charcoal, diatoms, chrysophyte cysts, midges, mites and testate amoebae). Numerical techniques, including multivariate ordination, rarefaction, independent splitting and trait analysis, were used to assess the major drivers of changes in community diversity and population stability. Integrated multi-proxy analyses are very rare in the Caucasus, making this a unique record of long-term ecological change in a global biodiversity hotspot., Synthesis. Population changes in the terrestrial community coincided primarily with external environmental changes, while populations within the peatland community were affected by both internal and external drivers at different times. In general, our observations accord with theoretical predictions that population increases lead to greater stability and declines lead to instability. Random variation and interspecific competition explain population dynamics that diverged from predictions. Population change and diversity trends were positively correlated in all taxonomic groups, suggesting that population-level instability is greater in more diverse communities, even though diverse communities are themselves more stable. There is a continuing need to confront population theory with long-term data to test the predictive success of theoretical frameworks, thereby improving their ability to predict future change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the results of high-resolution, multi-proxy palaeoecological investigations of two parallel peat cores from the Baltic raised bog Mechacz Wielki in NE Poland. We aim to evaluate the role of regional climate and autogenic processes of the raised bog itself in driving the vegetation and hydrology dynamics. Based on partly synchronous changes in Sphagnum communities in the two study cores we suggest that extrinsic factors (climate) played an important role as a driver in mire development during the bog stage (500–2012 CE). Using a testate amoebae transfer function, we found exceptionally stable hydrological conditions during the last 2000 years with a relatively high water table and lack of local fire events that allowed for rapid peat accumulation (2.75 mm/year) in the bog. Further, the strong correlation between pH and community-weighted mean of testate amoeba traits suggests that other variables than water-table depth play a role in driving microbial properties under stable hydrological conditions. There is a difference in hydrological dynamics in bogs between NW and NE Poland until ca 1500 CE, after which the water table reconstructions show more similarities. Our results illustrate how various functional traits relate to different environmental variables in a range of trophic and hydrological scenarios on long time scales. Moreover, our data suggest a common regional climatic forcing in Mechacz Wielki, Gązwa and Kontolanrahka. Though it may still be too early to attempt a regional summary of wetness change in the southern Baltic region, this study is a next step to better understand the long-term peatland palaeohydrology in NE Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Multi-proxy palaeoecological studies in the Białowieża Primary Forest. • Palaeoecological analysis as a reliable tool to determinate state of the peatland and forest ecosystems conditions. • Peatland ecosystems in the Białowieża Forest may no longer be in a pristine state. • Permanent high fire activity between ca. 1650 and 1920 in the Białowieża Forest. The Białowieża Primeval Forest is one of the most pristine forested and peatland areas in Europe, as recognized by its status as the World Biosphere Reserve. Palaeoecological analyzes offer the possibility of establishing a record of ecosystem change over time, and therefore setting reference conditions for their assessment, protection and restoration. To assess the impact of hydrological changes, fire and pollution (dust, metals from smelting) on peatland and forest ecosystems, we carried out high-resolution, multi-proxy palaeoecological investigations of two peat cores (50 cm long) from nearby locations at a peatland located in the protected area (nature reserve) of the Białowieża Forest (CE Poland). Our study revealed that: i) between about 1780 and 1920 CE high fire activity likely caused by humans led to a partly decline in dwarf shrubs at the sampling sites; ii) between about 1910 and 1930 CE distinctive changes in local and regional plant succession took place that can be considered as a sign of disturbance in the peatland ecosystems; iii) during the last three decades we recorded a recent decrease of trace metals and pollen indicating a decrease in human activity. These changes are synchronous with a decrease of industrial activity and curbing of emission through legislation as well as the ongoing depopulation of villages in E Poland that started in 1990. Our data suggest that even well-preserved peatlands, located in protected areas might be far from their pristine state, predominantly due to disturbance effects from the past still lingering on. Nevertheless, the studied area remains one of the best-preserved forest ecosystems in Europe, despite the negative impact of human activity (deforestation, fires, hunting) over the past few centuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transfer functions are widely used in palaeoecology to infer past environmental conditions from fossil remains of many groups of organisms. In contrast to traditional training-set design with one observation per site, some training-sets, including those for peatland testate amoeba-hydrology transfer functions, have a clustered structure with many observations from each site. Here we show that this clustered design causes standard performance statistics to be overly optimistic. Model performance when applied to independent data sets is considerably weaker than suggested by statistical cross-validation. We discuss the reasons for these problems and describe leave-one-site-out cross-validation and the cluster bootstrap as appropriate methods for clustered training-sets. Using these methods we show that the performance of most testate amoeba-hydrology transfer functions is worse than previously assumed and reconstructions are more uncertain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Lake sediment-derived environmental reconstruction is presented for the 4.2 ka event. • Summer temperatures and climate humidity remained stable during the event. • We found likely indication of more severe winters between 4.0 and 4.25 ka BP. • A pulse of podzolization, likely favored by winter cooling, was reported ~4.2 ka BP. • The terrestrial vegetation and the lake biota remained unaffected by the event. Many regions around the world experienced abrupt climate change with far-reaching societal and environmental effects at ca. 4.2 cal. ka BP. As one of the most distinct climatic events of the last 11.7 ka, it has been used to establish the formal boundary between the mid- and late-Holocene. Although the 4.2 ka event was not pronounced in East-Central Europe, its exact impact on the area has yet to be evaluated. The aim of this paper is twofold: (1) to reconstruct the functioning of the selected lake and terrestrial ecosystems from northern Poland around the time of the 4.2 ka event, and (2) to disentangle the drivers of the recorded environmental changes (local factors vs. climate impact). We studied the sedimentary record of Lake Spore, focusing on the period between 3.8 and 4.5 cal. ka BP using numerous biotic and abiotic proxies, such as chironomids, cladocerans, pollen and spores, δ13C org , δ15N org , δ18O carb , δ13C carb , TOC/N, Fe, S, LOI 550 , and LOI 950. The chironomid-derived reconstruction of mean July air temperature did not change during the 4.2 ka event. Pollen accumulation rate (PAR) data showed lower pollen production of some tree taxa during the period 4.0–4.25 cal. ka BP that is consistent with low PARs recorded for the corresponding period in the sediments of nearby (~75 km) Lake Suminko. This change might have occurred due to either regional-scale forest disturbance or cooler winters resulting from an exceptionally strong Siberian High during the 4.2 ka event. Distinct peaks of Fe and δ13C carb at 4.2 cal. ka BP likely record a pulse of podzolization. Although soil transformation processes were common in East-Central Europe after ca. 5 cal. ka BP due to general climate cooling, they could have been enhanced at Lake Spore during the 4.2 ka event, if winters were more severe. The δ13C org , δ15N org , TOC/N and δ18O carb records point to a water level rise after 4.2 cal. ka BP that most likely resulted from soil transformation in the catchment, not a change in effective precipitation. The composition of the terrestrial vegetation and the lake fauna and flora remained largely unaffected by the 4.2 ka event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]