Search

The local instabilities of a nonlinear dynamical system can be characterized by the leading singular vectors of its linearized operator. The leading singular vectors are perturbations with the greatest linear growth and are therefore key in assessing the system's predictability. In this paper, the analysis of singular vectors for the predictability of weather and climate and ensemble forecasting is discussed. An overview of the role of singular vectors in informing about the error growth rate in numerical models of the atmosphere is given. This is followed by their use in the initialization of ensemble weather forecasts. Singular vectors for the ocean and coupled ocean-atmosphere system in order to understand the predictability of climate phenomena such as ENSO and meridional overturning circulation are reviewed and their potential use to initialize seasonal and decadal forecasts is considered. As stochastic parameterizations are being implemented, some speculations are made about the future of singular vectors for the predictability of weather and climate for theoretical applications and at the operational level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is now acknowledged that representing model uncertainty in atmospheric simulators is essential for the production of reliable probabilistic forecasts, and a number of different techniques have been proposed for this purpose. This paper presents new perturbed parameter schemes for use in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) convection scheme. Two types of scheme are developed and implemented. Both schemes represent the joint uncertainty in four of the parameters in the convection parameterization scheme, which was estimated using the Ensemble Prediction and Parameter Estimation System (EPPES). The first scheme developed is a fixed perturbed parameter scheme, where the values of uncertain parameters are varied between ensemble members, but held constant over the duration of the forecast. The second is a stochastically varying perturbed parameter scheme. The performance of these schemes was compared to the ECMWF operational stochastic scheme, stochastically perturbed parameterization tendencies (SPPT), and to a model that does not represent uncertainty in convection. The skill of probabilistic forecasts made using the different models was evaluated. While the perturbed parameter schemes improve on the stochastic parameterization in some regards, the SPPT scheme outperforms the perturbed parameter approaches when considering forecast variables that are particularly sensitive to convection. Overall, SPPT schemes are the most skillful representations of model uncertainty owing to convection parameterization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Important questions concerning parameterization of tropical convection are how should subgrid-scale variability be represented and which large-scale variables should be used in the parameterizations? Here the statistics of observational data in Darwin, Australia, are compared with those of short-term forecasts of convection made by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System. The forecasts use multiplicative-noise stochastic physics (MNSP) that has led to many improvements in weather forecast skill. However, doubts have recently been raised about whether MNSP is consistent with observations of tropical convection. It is shown that the model can reproduce the variability of convection intensity for a given large-scale state, both with and without MNSP. Therefore MNSP is not inconsistent with observations, and much of the modeled variability arises from nonlinearity of the deterministic part of the convection scheme. It is also shown that the model can reproduce the lack of correlation between convection intensity and large-scale CAPE and an entraining CAPE, even though the convection parameterization assumes that deep convection is more intense when the vertical temperature profile is more unstable, with entrainment taken into account. Relationships between convection and large-scale convective inhibition and vertical velocity are also correctly captured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of reduced numerical precision to reduce computing costs for the cloud resolving model of superparameterized simulations of the atmosphere is investigated. An approach to identify the optimal level of precision for many different model components is presented, and a detailed analysis of precision is performed. This is nontrivial for a complex model that shows chaotic behavior such as the cloud resolving model in this paper. It is shown not only that numerical precision can be reduced significantly but also that the results of the reduced precision analysis provide valuable information for the quantification of model uncertainty for individual model components. The precision analysis is also used to identify model parts that are of less importance thus enabling a reduction of model complexity. It is shown that the precision analysis can be used to improve model efficiency for both simulations in double precision and in reduced precision. Model simulations are performed with a superparameterized single-column model version of the OpenIFS model that is forced by observational data sets. A software emulator was used to mimic the use of reduced precision floating point arithmetic in simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stochastic parameterization provides a methodology for representing model uncertainty in ensemble forecasts. Here the impact on forecast reliability over seasonal time scales of three existing stochastic parameterizations in the ocean component of a coupled model is studied. The relative impacts of these schemes upon the ocean mean state and ensemble spread are analyzed. The oceanic variability induced by the atmospheric forcing of the coupled system is, in most regions, the major source of ensemble spread. The largest impact on spread and bias came from the stochastically perturbed parameterization tendency (SPPT) scheme, which has proven particularly effective in the atmosphere. The key regions affected are eddy-active regions, namely, the western boundary currents and the Southern Ocean where ensemble spread is increased. However, unlike its impact in the atmosphere, SPPT in the ocean did not result in a significant decrease in forecast error on seasonal time scales. While there are good grounds for implementing stochastic schemes in ocean models, the results suggest that they will have to be more sophisticated. Some suggestions for next-generation stochastic schemes are made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]