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Background: Onchocerciasis, also known as "river blindness", is caused by the bite of infected female blackflies (genus Simuliidae) that transmit the parasite Onchocerca volvulus. A high onchocerciasis microfarial load increases the risk to develop epilepsy in children between the ages of 3 and 18 years. In resource-limited settings in Africa where onchocerciasis has been poorly controlled, high numbers of onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE) are reported. We use mathematical modeling to predict the impact of onchocerciasis control strategies on the incidence and prevalence of OAE. Methodology: We developed an OAE model within the well-established mathematical modelling framework ONCHOSIM. Using Latin-Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and grid search technique, we quantified transmission and disease parameters using OAE data from Maridi County, an onchocerciasis endemic area, in southern Republic of South Sudan. Using ONCHOSIM, we predicted the impact of ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) and vector control on the epidemiology of OAE in Maridi. Principal findings: The model estimated an OAE prevalence of 4.1% in Maridi County, close to the 3.7% OAE prevalence reported in field studies. The OAE incidence is expected to rapidly decrease by >50% within the first five years of implementing annual MDA with good coverage (≥70%). With vector control at a high efficacy level (around 80% reduction of blackfly biting rates) as the sole strategy, the reduction is slower, requiring about 10 years to halve the OAE incidence. Increasing the efficacy levels of vector control, and implementing vector control simultaneously with MDA, yielded better results in preventing new cases of OAE. Conclusions/Significances: Our modeling study demonstrates that intensifying onchocerciasis eradication efforts could substantially reduce OAE incidence and prevalence in endemic foci. Our model may be useful for optimizing OAE control strategies. Author summary: Onchocerciasis is a parasitic disease caused by the filarial worm Onchocerca volvulus, which is transmitted by Simuliidae black flies. This disease is most common in Africa and South America. Onchocerca volvulus is thought to infect approximately 35 million Africans these days. Adult female worms infect people and form subcutaneous nodules, releasing thousands of microfilariae per day, causing itching, dermatitis, blindness, and epilepsy. Despite the fact that the association between onchocerciasis and epilepsy was already mentioned in a study from Mexico in 1938, this association was only reported around 1991 in Africa in the Mbam valley in Cameroon. Onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy (OAE) is characterised by seizures that start between the ages of 3 and 18 years in previously healthy children with a high degree of O. volvulus infection. Raising awareness about OAE will increase adherence to community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI), particularly in high-prevalence areas, while also motivating funders and stakeholders to keep fighting onchocerciasis. Here, we create an OAE model within the framework of ONCHOSIM that is parametrized using South Sudan data and investigate how different control measures such as CDTI and vector control might help reduce OAE in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Onchocerciasis ("river blindness") can cause severe morbidity, including vision loss and various skin manifestations, and is targeted for elimination using ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA). We calculated the number of people with Onchocerca volvulus infection and onchocercal skin and eye disease as well as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost from 1990 through to 2030 in areas formerly covered by the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control. Methods: Per MDA implementation unit, we collated data on the pre-control distribution of microfilariae (mf) prevalence and the history of control. Next, we predicted trends in infection and morbidity over time using the ONCHOSIM simulation model. DALY estimates were calculated using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease Study. Results: In 1990, prior to MDA implementation, the total population at risk was 79.8 million with 26.0 million (32.5%) mf-positive individuals, of whom 17.5 million (21.9%) had some form of onchocercal skin or eye disease (2.5 million DALYs lost). By 2030, the total population was predicted to increase to 236.1 million, while the number of mf-positive cases (about 6.8 million, 2.9%), people with skin or eye morbidity (4.2 million, 1.8%), and DALYs lost (0.7 million) were predicted to decline. Conclusions: MDA has had a remarkable impact on the onchocerciasis burden in countries previously under the APOC mandate. In the few countries where we predict continued transmission between now and 2030, intensified MDA could be combined with local vector control efforts, or the introduction of new drugs for mopping up residual cases of infection and morbidity. Author summary: Onchocerciasis, also known as river blindness, is a neglected tropical disease caused by a parasitic worm transmitted through the bite of an infected blackfly. Onchocerciasis is, or used to be, endemic in many West, Central, and East African countries. Mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin and vector control have been used to prevent the spread of infection and effectively control onchocerciasis as a public health problem. In Central and East Africa, this was done under the mandate of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC). In 2012, the World Health Organization targeted onchocerciasis for control and elimination. Here, we assess the impact of MDA with ivermectin on the prevalence of onchocercal morbidity in 1990 (pre-control), 2020, and 2030, and calculate the associated burden of disease in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a composite measure of life years lost and years lived with disability. By 2030, we expect that 691 thousand DALYs will be lost in countries formerly covered by APOC. This burden is due to onchocercal skin disease in about 3.8 million people and onchocercal eye disease in about 384 thousand people, with most of this burden being concentrated in only a few countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Onchocerciasis (river-blindness) in Africa is targeted for elimination through mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. Onchocerciasis may cause various types of skin and eye disease. Predicting the impact of MDA on onchocercal morbidity is useful for future policy development. Here, we introduce a new disease module within the established ONCHOSIM model to predict trends over time in prevalence of onchocercal morbidity. Methods: We developed novel generic model concepts for development of symptoms due to cumulative exposure to dead microfilariae, accommodating both reversible (acute) and irreversible (chronic) symptoms. The model was calibrated to reproduce pre-control age patterns and associations between prevalences of infection, eye disease, and various types of skin disease as observed in a large set of population-based studies. We then used the new disease module to predict the impact of MDA on morbidity prevalence over a 30-year time frame for various scenarios. Results: ONCHOSIM reproduced observed age-patterns in disease and community-level associations between infection and disease reasonably well. For highly endemic settings with 30 years of annual MDA at 60% coverage, the model predicted a 70% to 89% reduction in prevalence of chronic morbidity. This relative decline was similar with higher MDA coverage and only somewhat higher for settings with lower pre-control endemicity. The decline in prevalence was lowest for mild depigmentation and visual impairment. The prevalence of acute clinical manifestations (severe itch, reactive skin disease) declined by 95% to 100% after 30 years of annual MDA, regardless of pre-control endemicity. Conclusion: We present generic model concepts for predicting trends in acute and chronic symptoms due to history of exposure to parasitic worm infections, and apply this to onchocerciasis. Our predictions suggest that onchocercal morbidity, in particular chronic manifestations, will remain a public health concern in many epidemiological settings in Africa, even after 30 years of MDA. Author summary: Onchocerciasis, also known as river blindness, is the second most common infectious cause of blindness worldwide, but also leads to serious skin conditions. Large-scale interventions are ongoing to control and eliminate the disease in Africa, yet the impact of these interventions on onchocercal morbidity is largely unknown. Here, we predict the trends in a wide spectrum of skin and eye disease due to onchocerciasis after up to 30 years of annual mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. To this end, we have developed a novel disease framework within the established ONCHOSIM model. We show that annual MDA will rapidly reduce the prevalence of acute clinical conditions, whereas the prevalence of chronic clinical manifestations will decline much more slowly. The new disease framework was validated with several data sources and reproduced morbidity trends adequately, making the framework applicable for more refined disease prevalence predictions by taking account of treatment history in Africa. Such predictions are essential for accurate estimates of disability-adjusted life years lost due to onchocerciasis by 2025. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The current World Health Organization (WHO) target for the three major soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections is to reduce prevalence of moderate-to-heavy infections to below 1% by 2020. In terms of monitoring and evaluation (M&E), the current WHO guidelines for control of STHs recommend evaluation of infection levels in school-age children (SAC) after five to six years of preventive chemotherapy (PC), using the standard Kato-Katz faecal smear. Here, we assess the predictive performance of various sampling designs for the evaluation of the morbidity target. Methodology/Principal findings: Using two mathematical models for STH transmission and control, we simulate how the number of villages and SAC sampled affect the ability of survey results in sentinel villages to predict the achievement of the morbidity target in PC implementation units (e.g. district). As PC is stopped when the prevalence of infection in SAC in sentinel villages is less than 1%, we estimate the positive predictive value (PPV) of this indicator for meeting the morbidity target in the whole district. The PPV varies by species and PC strategy, and it is generally higher in areas with lower pre-control prevalence. Sampling a fixed number of SAC spread out over 10 instead of 5 sentinel villages may increase the PPV by up to 20 percentage points. If every SAC in a village is tested, a higher number of villages may increase the PPV by up to 80 percentage points. Increasing the proportion of SAC tested per village does not result in a relevant increase of PPV. Conclusions/Significance: Although the WHO guidelines provide a combined strategy to control the three STH species, the efficacy of PC strategies clearly differs by species. There is added value in considering more villages within implementation units for M&E of morbidity targets, the extent varying by STH species. A better understanding of pre- and post-control local STH prevalence levels is essential for an adequate M&E strategy including the definition of morbidity targets at the appropriate geographical scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite the overall decrease in visceral leishmaniasis (VL) incidence on the Indian subcontinent, there remain spatiotemporal clusters or ‘hotspots’ of new cases. The characteristics of these hotspots, underlying transmission dynamics, and their importance for shaping control strategies are not yet fully understood and are investigated in this study for a VL endemic area of ~100,000 inhabitants in Bihar, India between 2007–2015. Methodology/Principal findings: VL incidence (cases/10,000/year) dropped from 12.3 in 2007 to 0.9 in 2015, which is just below the World Health Organizations’ threshold for elimination as a public health problem. Clustering of VL was assessed between subvillages (hamlets), using multiple geospatial and (spatio)temporal autocorrelation and hotspot analyses. One to three hotspots were identified each year, often persisting for 1–5 successive years with a modal radius of ~500m. The relative risk of having VL was 5–86 times higher for inhabitants of hotspots, compared to those living outside hotspots. Hotspots harbour significantly more households from the two lowest asset quintiles (as proxy for socio-economic status). Overall, children and young adelescents (5–14 years) have the highest risk for VL, but within hotspots and at the start of outbreaks, older age groups (35+ years) show a comparable high risk. Conclusions/Significance: This study demonstrates significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in VL incidence at subdistrict level. The association between poverty and hotspots confirms that VL is a disease of ‘the poorest of the poor’ and age patterns suggest a potential role of waning immunity as underlying driver of hotspots. The recommended insecticide spraying radius of 500m around detected VL cases corresponds to the modal hotspot radius found in this study. Additional data on immunity and asymptomatic infection, and the development of spatiotemporally explicit transmission models that simulate hotspot dynamics and predict the impact of interventions at the smaller geographical scale will be crucial tools in sustaining elimination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Regular preventive chemotherapy (PCT) targeting high-risk populations is an effective way to control STH in the short term, but sustainable long-term STH control is expected to require improved access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). However, experimental studies have not been able to conclusively demonstrate the benefit of WASH in preventing STH (re-)infections. We investigated the impact of WASH on STH infections during and after PCT using mathematical modelling. Methods and findings: We use the individual-based transmission model WORMSIM to predict the short and long-term impact of WASH on STH transmission in contexts with and without PCT. We distinguish two WASH modalities: sanitation, which reduces individuals’ contributions to environmental contamination; and hygiene, which reduces individuals’ exposure to infection. We simulate the impact of varying levels of uptake and effectiveness of each WASH modality, as well as their combined impact. Clearly, sanitation and hygiene interventions have little observable short-term impact on STH infections levels in the context of PCT. However, in the long term, both are pivotal to sustain control or eliminate infection levels after scaling down or stopping PCT. The impact of hygiene is determined more by the effectiveness of the intervention than its overall uptake, whereas the impact of sanitation depends more directly on the product of uptake and the effectiveness. Interpretation: The impact of WASH interventions on STH transmission highly depends on the worm species, WASH modality, and uptake and effectiveness of the intervention. Also, the impact of WASH is difficult to measure in the context of ongoing PCT programmes. Still, we show a clear added benefit of WASH to sustain the gains made by PCT in the long term, such that PCT may be scaled down or even stopped altogether. To safely stop or scale down PCT, policy for WASH and PCT should be integrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Stable low pre-control prevalences of helminth infection are not uncommon in field settings, yet it is poorly understood how such low levels can be sustained, thereby challenging efforts to model them. Disentangling possible facilitating mechanisms is important, since these may differently affect intervention impact. Here we explore the role of assortative (i.e. non-homogenous) mixing and exposure heterogeneity in helminth transmission, using onchocerciasis as an example. Methodology/Principal findings: We extended the established individual-based model ONCHOSIM to allow for assortative mixing, assuming that individuals who are relatively more exposed to fly bites are more connected to each other than other individuals in the population as a result of differential exposure to a sub-population of blackflies. We used the model to investigate how transmission stability, equilibrium microfilarial (mf) prevalence and intensity, and impact of mass drug administration depend on the assumed degree of assortative mixing and exposure heterogeneity, for a typical rural population of about 400 individuals. The model clearly demonstrated that with homogeneous mixing and moderate levels of exposure heterogeneity, onchocerciasis could not be sustained below 35% mf prevalence. In contrast, assortative mixing stabilised onchocerciasis prevalence at levels as low as 8% mf prevalence. Increasing levels of assortative mixing significantly reduced the probability of interrupting transmission, given the same duration and coverage of mass drug administration. Conclusions/Significance: Assortative mixing patterns are an important factor to explain stable low prevalence situations and are highly relevant for prospects of elimination. Their effect on the pre-control distribution of mf intensities in human populations is only detectable in settings with mf prevalences <30%, where high skin mf density in mf-positive people may be an indication of assortative mixing. Local spatial variation in larval infection intensity in the blackfly intermediate host may also be an indicator of assortative mixing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports that the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) systematically quantifies the prevalence, morbidity, and mortality for hundreds of diseases, injuries, and risk factors of global health importance. For the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), the GBD 2010 confirmed a high disease burden for the 17 major NTDs prioritized by the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as for selected conditions also recognized as NTDs.

Background: Onchocerciasis is targeted for elimination in Africa through annual or biannual ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA). An immunodiagnostic test, based on the detection of human IgG4 antibodies in the blood to the Onchocerca volvulus-specific antigen Ov16, is one of the recommended tools for determining whether transmission is interrupted and mass treatment can stop. For different transmission settings, the relationship between post-MDA Ov16 antibody prevalence in children (measured 1 year after the last round of MDA) and the duration and coverage of MDA, the mf prevalence in the population, and the probability that onchocerciasis is eventually eliminated is explored through mathematical modelling. Methodology: The ONCHOSIM model was extended with new output on the Ov16 antibody serostatus of individuals. Seroconversion was assumed to be triggered by the first worm establishing in the host, with seroconversion occurring either before maturation, after maturation or only after the start of mf production. We are mainly interested in seroconversion rates in children, and for now ignore the possibility of seroreversion to simplify the model. Principal findings: Yearly repeated MDA leads to a strong reduction in the in the parasite acquisition rate in humans. This reduces the seroconversion rate in newborns and young children, while those who seroconverted before the start of control remain antibody positive. Both the microfiladermia prevalence in the population aged 5 years and above and the Ov16 antibody prevalence in children under 10 declined with increasing duration of MDA. The association between either of these indicators and the model-predicted probability of elimination was not influenced much by the assumed treatment coverage levels, but was found to depend on baseline endemicity levels, assumptions regarding the trigger of seroconversion, and diagnostic test characteristics (sensitivity and specificity). Conclusions: Better understanding of the dynamics of Ov16 antibody responses is required for accurate interpretation of seroprevalence data and more precise estimation of endpoint for MDA. Our study demonstrates that this endpoint will be dependent on baseline endemicity levels, which should be taken into account in guidelines for defining when to stop MDA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) in healthy human volunteers is an important and powerful tool in clinical malaria vaccine development. However, power calculations are essential to obtain meaningful estimates of protective efficacy, while minimizing the risk of adverse events. To optimize power calculations for CHMI-based malaria vaccine trials, we developed a novel non-linear statistical model for parasite kinetics as measured by qPCR, using data from mosquito-based CHMI experiments in 57 individuals. We robustly account for important sources of variation between and within individuals using a Bayesian framework. Study power is most dependent on the number of individuals in each treatment arm; inter-individual variation in vaccine efficacy and the number of blood samples taken per day matter relatively little. Due to high inter-individual variation in the number of first-generation parasites, hepatic vaccine trials required significantly more study subjects than erythrocytic vaccine trials. We provide power calculations for hypothetical malaria vaccine trials of various designs and conclude that so far, power calculations have been overly optimistic. We further illustrate how upcoming techniques like needle-injected CHMI may reduce required sample sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) is currently shifting its focus from morbidity control to elimination of infection. To enhance the likelihood of elimination and speed up its achievement, programs may consider to increase the frequency of ivermectin mass treatment from annual to 6-monthly or even higher. In a computer simulation study, we examined the potential impact of increasing the mass treatment frequency for different settings. With the ONCHOSIM model, we simulated 92,610 scenarios pertaining to different assumptions about transmission conditions, history of mass treatment, the future mass treatment strategy, and ivermectin efficacy. Simulation results were used to determine the minimum remaining program duration and number of treatment rounds required to achieve 99% probability of elimination. Doubling the frequency of treatment from yearly to 6-monthly or 3-monthly was predicted to reduce remaining program duration by about 40% or 60%, respectively. These reductions come at a cost of additional treatment rounds, especially in case of 3-monthly mass treatment. Also, aforementioned reductions are highly dependent on maintained coverage, and could be completely nullified if coverage of mass treatment were to fall in the future. In low coverage settings, increasing treatment coverage is almost just as effective as increasing treatment frequency. We conclude that 6-monthly mass treatment may only be worth the effort in situations where annual treatment is expected to take a long time to achieve elimination in spite of good treatment coverage, e.g. because of unfavorable transmission conditions or because mass treatment started recently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the authors' views on the article Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 published in a previous issue. They comment that provided the most comprehensive attempt to quantify the burden of almost 300 diseases, injuries and risk factors is shown in the study. They opine that most of the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) currently listed by the World Health Organization (WHO) are disablers rather than killers witha few exceptions.

Background: Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015. Methods and Findings: With data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million. Conclusions: Our simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future. Author Summary: In 1995, the World Health Organization launched the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) with the aim to control morbidity due to the parasitic infectious disease onchocerciasis (river blindness). APOC aims to set up sustainable national control programs against onchocerciasis in 16 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, covering over 100 million people who are at risk for infection. The main control strategy is mass treatment with the drug ivermectin, which is donated by the pharmaceutical company Merck. Coordination of the mass treatment programs is made possible by financial contributions from donor and beneficiary countries. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, APOC has had a huge impact on population health in sub-Saharan Africa, preventing 8.2 million years worth of healthy life from being lost due to disease and mortality, at a cost of about US$257 million. We predicted that this health impact will double during the subsequent five years, at a cost of about US$221 million. This makes APOC one of the most cost-efficient large-scale public health programs in the world. We may expect even greater health gains in the future, given the anticipated extension of the APOC mandate with the aim to eliminate infection where possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]