8 results on '"den Elzen, Michel"'
Search Results
2. Developing scenarios in the context of the Paris Agreement and application in the integrated assessment model IMAGE
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Roelfsema, Mark, van Soest, Heleen L., den Elzen, Michel, de Coninck, Heleen, Kuramochi, Takeshi, Harmsen, Mathijs, Dafnomilis, Ioannis, Höhne, Niklas, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Sub Science, Technology & Society begr., Environmental Economics, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Sub Science, Technology & Society begr., Technology, Innovation & Society, and EIRES System Integration
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Planning and Development ,Geography ,Monitoring ,Policy and Law ,SDG 13 – Klimaatactie ,Geography, Planning and Development ,Paris Agreement ,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law ,Policy design ,Management ,Environmental Systems Analysis ,Milieusysteemanalyse ,Climate policy ,SDG 13 - Climate Action ,Integrated assessment ,Policy cycle ,Environmental Sciences ,SDG 15 - Life on Land - Abstract
The framework presented in this study aims to provide insights into how climate policy is represented in integrated assessment models, responding to the call to link model scenarios with concepts used in public policy literature and related fields. As such, it contributes to increased transparency leading to better understanding across disciplines and communication about the relevance of model outcomes with policymakers. The framework categorises climate policy into policy aims and policy implementation at different stages of the policy cycle, and can be used to demarcate different climate policy scenarios incorporating and linking the international and national level. This approach provides clarity on critical modelling assumptions concerning the workings of policy to scenario users (including policymakers), such as policy stringency and status. We discuss the framework in relation to scenarios exploring pathways meeting the long-term Paris goal to hold temperature well below 2 °C or 1.5 °C, Nationally Determined Contributions submitted to the Paris Agreement, and current implemented policies. Specifically, the application of the framework and model implementation of the scenarios is illustrated with implementation in the IMAGE model. To project the expected policy impact on greenhouse gas emissions, the policy goals and policy instrument targets are translated into model targets. This is implemented in the model by either changing parameters for available policy instruments, such as carbon price or subsidies, or adjusting model parameters such as efficiency and costs to meet targets.
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- 2022
3. Achieving net-zero emissions targets:An analysis of long-term scenarios using an integrated assessment model
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Dafnomilis, Ioannis, den Elzen, Michel, van Vuuren, Detlef P, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Sciences, and Environmental Economics
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NDC ,net zero ,climate change ,History and Philosophy of Science ,Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all) ,General Neuroscience ,Neuroscience(all) ,Taverne ,Paris agreement ,carbon neutrality ,Paris Agreement ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology - Abstract
More than 100 countries have communicated or adopted new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and net-zero target pledges. We investigate the impact on global, national, sectoral, and individual greenhouse gas emissions projections under different scenarios based on the announced NDCs and net-zero pledges using the IMAGE integrated assessment model. Our results show that while the net-zero pledges, if implemented, could be an important step forward, they are still not enough to achieve the Paris Agreement goals of well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C by the end of the century. Still, our net-zero scenarios project significant all-sector decarbonization, in particular, electricity; however, certain sectors like industry and transport prove hard to completely abate.
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- 2023
4. Achieving net‐zero emissions targets: An analysis of long‐term scenarios using an integrated assessment model.
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Dafnomilis, Ioannis, den Elzen, Michel, and van Vuuren, Detlef P.
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GREENHOUSE gases , *CARBON offsetting , *CARBON dioxide mitigation ,PARIS Agreement (2016) - Abstract
More than 100 countries have communicated or adopted new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and net‐zero target pledges. We investigate the impact on global, national, sectoral, and individual greenhouse gas emissions projections under different scenarios based on the announced NDCs and net‐zero pledges using the IMAGE integrated assessment model. Our results show that while the net‐zero pledges, if implemented, could be an important step forward, they are still not enough to achieve the Paris Agreement goals of well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C by the end of the century. Still, our net‐zero scenarios project significant all‐sector decarbonization, in particular, electricity; however, certain sectors like industry and transport prove hard to completely abate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2023
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5. Targeted green recovery measures in a post-COVID-19 world enable the energy transition
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Dafnomilis, Ioannis, Chen, Hsing-Hsuan, den Elzen, Michel G J, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Chewpreecha, Unnada, van Soest, Heleen, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis, Paroussas, Leonidas, de Boer, Harmen Sytze, Daioglou, Vassilis, Edelenbosch, Oreane, Kiss-Dobronyi, Bence, van Vuuren, Detlef, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Economics, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, and Environmental Sciences
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Global and Planetary Change ,Atmospheric Science ,CO emissions ,Monitoring ,Policy and Law ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,COVID-19 ,green recovery ,Paris Agreement ,Environmental Science (miscellaneous) ,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law ,Energy transition ,Environmental economics ,Pollution ,Management ,energy transition ,green stimulus ,SDG 13 - Climate Action ,Business - Abstract
Despite the significant volume of fiscal recovery measures announced by countries to deal with the COVID-19 crisis, most recovery plans allocate a low percentage to green recovery. We present scenarios exploring the medium- and long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis and develop a Green Recovery scenario using three well-established global models to analyze the impact of a low-carbon focused stimulus. The results show that a Green Recovery scenario, with 1% of global GDP in fiscal support directed to mitigation measures for 3 years, could reduce global CO2 emissions by 10.5–15.5% below pre-COVID-19 projections by 2030, closing 8–11.5% of the emissions gap with cost-optimal 2°C pathways. The share of renewables in global electricity generation is projected to reach 45% in 2030, the uptake of electric vehicles would be accelerated, and energy efficiency in the buildings and industry sector would improve. However, such a temporary investment should be reinforced with sustained climate policies after 2023 to put the world on a 2°C pathway by mid-century.
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- 2021
6. Assessing the ambition of post-2020 climate targets : a comprehensive framework
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Höhne, Niklas, Fekete, Hanna, den Elzen, Michel G.J., Hof, Andries F., Kuramochi, Takeshi, Environmental Sciences, Sub Science, Technology & Society begr., Environmental Sciences, and Sub Science, Technology & Society begr.
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Atmospheric Science ,Global and Planetary Change ,Global stocktake ,WIMEK ,Natural resource economics ,020209 energy ,02 engineering and technology ,Environmental Science (miscellaneous) ,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law ,Ambition ,global stocktake ,Variety (cybernetics) ,UNFCCC ,INDCs ,Environmental Systems Analysis ,ambition ,Environmental protection ,Greenhouse gas ,Milieusysteemanalyse ,Taverne ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Economics ,Paris agreement ,NDCs ,China - Abstract
One of the most fundamental questions surrounding the new Paris Agreement is whether countries’ proposals to reduce GHG emissions after 2020 are equally ambitious, considering differences in circumstances between countries. We review a variety of approaches to assess the ambition of the GHG emission reduction proposals by countries. The approaches are applied illustratively to the mitigation part of the post-2020 climate proposals (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) by China, the EU, and the US. The analysis reveals several clear trends, even though the results differ per individual assessment approach. We recommend that such a comprehensive ambition assessment framework, employing a large variety of approaches, is used in the future to capture a wide spectrum of perspectives on ambition. POLICY RELEVANCE Assessing the ambition of the national climate proposals is particularly important as the Paris Agreement asks for regular reviews of national contributions, keeping in mind that countries raise their ambition over time. Such an assessment will be an important part of the regular global stocktake that will take place every five years, starting with a ‘light’ version in 2018. However, comprehensive methods to assess the proposals are lacking. This article provides such a comprehensive assessment framework.
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- 2018
7. Greenhouse gas emission scenarios in nine key non-G20 countries: An assessment of progress toward 2030 climate targets.
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Kuramochi, Takeshi, Nascimento, Leonardo, Moisio, Mia, den Elzen, Michel, Forsell, Nicklas, van Soest, Heleen, Tanguy, Paola, Gonzales, Sofia, Hans, Frederic, Jeffery, M. Louise, Fekete, Hanna, Schiefer, Tessa, de Villafranca Casas, Maria Jose, De Vivero-Serrano, Gustavo, Dafnomilis, Ioannis, Roelfsema, Mark, and Höhne, Niklas
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GREENHOUSE gases ,COVID-19 pandemic ,CARBON dioxide ,COUNTRIES ,GREENHOUSE gas mitigation ,PER capita ,MAXIMUM power point trackers - Abstract
• Assesses if nine key non-G20 countries meet 2030 GHG targets with existing policies. • Only Colombia, Iran, Morocco and Ukraine will likely meet their targets. • Thailand and DRC within reach; Kazakhstan and Philippines will miss their targets. • Per capita emissions under existing policies increase by 8 % to over 40 %. • Need to strengthen climate action analysis outside G20 for Paris Agreement goals. This study compares greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections in 2030 under current policies and those under 2030 mitigation targets for nine key non-G20 countries, that collectively account for about 5 % of global total emissions today. These include the four largest non-G20 fossil CO 2 emitting Parties to the UN climate convention pre- Paris Agreement (Iran, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Ukraine) and one of the largest land-use GHG emitters in the world (Democratic Republic of the Congo). Other countries assessed include major economies in their respective regions (Chile, Colombia, Morocco and the Philippines). In addition to economy-wide GHG emissions projections, we also assessed the projected GHG emissions peak year and the progression of per capita GHG emissions up to 2030. Our GHG emissions projections are also compared with previous studies. On economy-wide GHG emissions, Colombia, Iran, Morocco, and Ukraine were projected to likely meet or significantly overachieve their unconditional 2030 targets with existing policies, while DRC and Thailand would come very close to their targets. Kazakhstan and the Philippines would need to strengthen their action to meet their targets, while Chile recently raised its 2030 target ambition. Only Colombia and Ukraine are projected to have peaked their emissions by 2030. Per capita GHG emissions excluding land-use under current policies were projected to increase in all countries from 2010 levels by 8 % to over 40 % depending on the country. While the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on 2030 emissions is highly uncertain, our assessment on the target achievement would not change for most countries when the emission reductions estimated for 2020 in the literature were assumed to remain in 2030. The findings of this study highlight the importance of enhanced and frequent progress-tracking of climate action of major emitters outside G20, as is currently done for G20 members, to ensure that the global collective progress will become aligned with the pathways toward Paris climate goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2021
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8. Global and regional abatement costs of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and of enhanced action to levels well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C.
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Hof, Andries F., den Elzen, Michel G.J., Admiraal, Annemiek, Roelfsema, Mark, Gernaat, David E.H.J., and van Vuuren, Detlef P.
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CLIMATE change ,GREENHOUSE gas mitigation ,CHEMICAL reduction ,GLOBAL warming ,SOCIOECONOMIC factors - Abstract
As part of the Paris climate agreement, countries have submitted (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which includes greenhouse gas reduction proposals beyond 2020. In this paper, we apply the IMAGE integrated assessment model to estimate the annual abatement costs of achieving the NDC reduction targets, and the additional costs if countries would take targets in line with keeping global warming well below 2 °C and “pursue efforts” towards 1.5 °C. We have found that abatement costs are very sensitive to socio-economic assumptions: under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3 (SSP3) assumptions of slow economic growth, rapidly growing population, and high inequality, global abatement costs of achieving the unconditional NDCs are estimated at USD135 billion by 2030, which is more than twice the level as under the more sustainable socio-economic assumptions of SSP1. Furthermore, we project that the additional costs of full implementation of the conditional NDCs are substantial, ranging from 40 to 55 billion USD, depending on socio-economic assumptions. Of the ten major emitting economies, Brazil, Canada and the USA are projected to have the highest cots as share of GDP to implement the conditional NDCs, while the costs for Japan, China, Russia, and India are relatively low. Allowing for emission trading could decrease global costs substantially, by more than half for the unconditional NDCs and almost by half for the conditional NDCs. Finally, the required effort in terms of abatement costs of achieving 2030 emission levels consistent with 2 °C pathways would be at least three times higher than the costs of achieving the conditional NDCs – even though reductions need to be twice as much. For 1.5 °C, the costs would be 5–6 times as high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2017
- Full Text
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