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The new organization method, represented by the mixed operation of multi-marshalling trains, can adapt to the characteristics of the uneven distribution of passenger flow, but the research on this aspect is still not perfect enough. This paper introduced the passenger sharing rate and congestion penalty coefficient with different train formations. On this basis, this paper established an optimization model with the minimum passenger cost and operation cost as objective, and operation frequency and passenger demand as constraint. The ideal point method is used to solve this model. Compared with the fixed marshalling operation model, the overall cost of this scheme saves 9.24% and 4.43% respectively. This result not only validates the validity of the model, but also illustrate the advantages of the multiple train formations scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to different functions and land use types, there are significant differences in ridership patterns among different urban rail transit stations. Considering the characteristics of different ridership and coping with the uncertainty, periodical and stochastic natures of short-term passenger flow, and this paper proposes a novel hybrid methodology that combines the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and wavelet decomposition, which has strong strengths in signal processing, to short-term ridership forecasting. The seasonal ARIMA is used to represent the relatively stable and regular ridership patterns while the wavelet decomposition is used to capture the stochastic or sometimes drastic changing characteristics of ridership patterns. The inclusion of wavelet decomposition and reconstruction provides the hybrid model with a unique strength in capturing sudden change in ridership patterns associated with certain rail stations. The case study is carried out by analyzing real ridership data of Metro Line 1 in Nanjing, China. The experimental results indicate that the hybrid method is superior to the individual ARIMA model for all ridership patterns, but particularly advantageous in predicting ridership at stations often associated with sudden pattern changes due to special events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]