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Pathogen spillover from wildlife to domestic animals and humans, and the reverse, has caused significant epidemics and pandemics worldwide. Although pathogen emergence has been linked to anthropogenic land conversion, a general framework to disentangle underlying processes is lacking. We develop a multi-host model for pathogen transmission between species inhabiting intact and converted habitat. Interspecies contacts and host populations vary with the proportion of land converted; enabling us to quantify infection risk across a changing landscape. In a range of scenarios, the highest spillover risk occurs at intermediate levels of habitat loss, whereas the largest, but rarest, epidemics occur at extremes of land conversion. This framework provides insights into the mechanisms driving disease emergence and spillover during land conversion. The finding that the risk of spillover is highest at intermediate levels of habitat loss provides important guidance for conservation and public health policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As biodiversity declineswith anthropogenic land-use change, it is increasingly important to understand how changing biodiversity affects infectious disease risk. The dilution effect hypothesis, which points to decreases in biodiversity as critical to an increase in infection risk, has received considerable attention due to the allure of a win-win scenario for conservation and human well-being. Yet some empirical data suggest that the dilution effect is not a generalizable phenomenon.We explore the response of pathogen transmission dynamics to changes in biodiversity that are driven by habitat loss using an allometrically scaled multi-host model.With this model, we show that declining habitat, and thus declining biodiversity, can lead to either increasing or decreasing infectious-disease risk, measured as endemic prevalence. Whether larger habitats, and thus greater biodiversity, lead to a decrease (dilution effect) or increase (amplification effect) in infection prevalence depends upon the pathogen transmission mode and how host competence scales with body size. Dilution effects were detected for most frequency-transmitted pathogens and amplification effects were detected for density-dependent pathogens. Amplification effects were also observed over a particular range of habitat loss in frequency-dependent pathogens when we assumed that host competence was greatest in large-bodied species. By contrast, only amplification effects were observed for density-dependent pathogens; host competency only affected the magnitude of the effect. These models can be used to guide future empirical studies of biodiversity-disease relationships across gradients of habitat loss. The type of transmission, the relationship between host competence and community assembly, the identity of hosts con- tributing to transmission, and how transmission scales with area are essential factors to consider when elucidating the mechanisms driving disease risk in shrinking habitat. This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing West African Ebola epidemic highlights a recurring trend in the zoonotic emergence of virulent pathogens likely to come from bat reservoirs that has caused epidemiologists to ask ‘Are bats special reservoirs for emerging zoonotic pathogens?’ We collate evidence from the past decade to delineate mitochondrial mechanisms of bat physiology that have evolved to mitigate oxidative stress incurred during metabolically costly activities such as flight. We further describe how such mechanisms might have generated pleiotropic effects responsible for tumor mitigation and pathogen control in bat hosts. These synergisms may enable ‘special’ tolerance of intracellular pathogens in bat hosts; paradoxically, this may leave them more susceptible to immunopathological morbidity when attempting to clear extracellular infections such as ‘white-nose syndrome’ (WNS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore pathogen virulence evolution during the spatial expansion of an infectious disease epidemic in the presence of a novel host movement trade-off, using a simple, spatially explicit mathematical model. This work is motivated by empirical observations of the Mycoplasma gallisepticum invasion into North American house finch (Haemorhous mexicanus) populations; however, our results likely have important applications to other emerging infectious diseases in mobile hosts. We assume that infection reduces host movement and survival and that across pathogen strains the severity of these reductions increases with pathogen infectiousness. Assuming these trade-offs between pathogen virulence (host mortality), pathogen transmission, and host movement, we find that pathogen virulence levels near the epidemic front (that maximize wave speed) are lower than those that have a short-term growth rate advantage or that ultimately prevail (i.e., are evolutionarily stable) near the epicenter and where infection becomes endemic (i.e., that maximize the pathogen basic reproductive ratio). We predict that, under these trade-offs, less virulent pathogen strains will dominate the periphery of an epidemic and that more virulent strains will increase in frequency after invasion where disease is endemic. These results have important implications for observing and interpreting spatiotemporal epidemic data and may help explain transient virulence dynamics of emerging infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do stress hormones, such as corticosterone, enhance bird susceptibility to mosquitoes in ways that enhance rates of co-infection? Does this then enhance pathogen emergence? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A bacterial pathogen of wild songbirds evolved higher virulence following its emergence in two separate regions of the host range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing number of zoonotic diseases spilling over from a range of wild animal species represents a particular concern for public health, especially in light of the current dramatic trend of biodiversity loss. To understand the ecology of these multi-host pathogens and their response to environmental degradation and species extinctions, it is necessary to develop a theoretical framework that takes into account realistic community assemblages. Here, we present a multi-host species epidemiological model that includes empirically determined patterns of diversity and composition derived from community ecology studies.We use this framework to study the interaction between wildlife diversity and directly transmitted pathogen dynamics. First, we demonstrate that variability in community composition does not affect significantly the intensity of pathogen transmission. We also show that the consequences of community diversity can differentially impact the prevalence of pathogens and the number of infectious individuals. Finally, we show that ecological interactions among host species have a weaker influence on pathogen circulation than inter-species transmission rates. We conclude that integration of a community perspective to study wildlife pathogens is crucial, especially in the context of understanding and predicting infectious disease emergence events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current unprecedented declines in biodiversity reduce the ability of ecological communities to provide many fundamental ecosystem services. Here we evaluate evidence that reduced biodiversity affects the transmission of infectious diseases of humans, other animals and plants. In principle, loss of biodiversity could either increase or decrease disease transmission. However, mounting evidence indicates that biodiversity loss frequently increases disease transmission. In contrast, areas of naturally high biodiversity may serve as a source pool for new pathogens. Overall, despite many remaining questions, current evidence indicates that preserving intact ecosystems and their endemic biodiversity should generally reduce the prevalence of infectious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1994, Mycoplasma gallisepticum, a common bacterial poultry pathogen, caused an epidemic in house finches in the eastern part of their North American range where the species had been introduced in the 1940s. Birds with mycoplasmal conjunctivitis were reported across the entire eastern United States within 3-4 years. Here we track the course of the Mycoplasma gallisepticurn epidemic as it reached native, western North American populations of the house finch. In 2002, Mycoplasma gallisepticurn was first observed in a native house finch population in Missoula, MT, where it gradually increased in prevalence during the next 2 years. Concurrently, house finches with conjunctivitis were reported with increasing number in the Pacific Northwest. In native populations of the host, the epidemic expanded more slowly, and reached lower levels of prevalence than in the eastern, introduced range of the species. Maximal prevalence was about half in the Missoula population than in local populations in the East. Although many factors can contribute to these differences, we argue that it is most likely the higher genetic heterogeneity in western than in eastern populations caused the lower impact of the pathogen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through the work of international public health organizations and advancements in the biological and technological sciences, substantial progress has been made in our ability to prevent, control, locally eliminate, and in one case eradicate infectious diseases. Yet each successful control or local elimination has been met with the emergence of new pathogens, the evolution of novel strains, or different epidemiological circumstances that have limited or reversed control methods. To respond to the increasing threat of emerging infectious diseases and bioterrorism it is vital that we design and implement efficient programs that prevent and control infectious pathogen transmission. The theoretical tools of ecology and epidemiology may be the cornerstone in constructing future programs aimed at preventing and controlling infectious diseases throughout the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pathogens that can infect multiple host species will have different dynamics than pathogens that are restricted to a single species of host. This article examines the conditions for establishment and long-term population dynamic behavior of pathogens that infect multiple species of hosts. The article attempts to address three major questions in this area: First, under which conditions will increases in the diversity of host species buffer infectious disease outbreaks, and under which conditions will host diversity amplify disease outbreaks? Second, under what conditions is it possible to control an infectious agent by focusing control against only one host species? Third, what role does host species diversity play in maintaining pathogen persistence? The answers to these questions supply some important general insights into the role that biodiversity plays in buffering humans and other species against new and emerging pathogens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Many pathogens and parasites attack multiple host species, so their ability to invade a host community can depend on host community composition. We present a graphical isocline framework for studying disease establishment in systems with two host species, based on treating host species as resources. The isocline approach provides a natural generalization to multi-host systems of two related concepts in disease ecology – the basic reproductive rate of a parasite, and threshold host density. Qualitative isocline shape characterizes the threshold community configurations that permit parasite establishment. In general, isocline shape reflects the relative forces of inter- and intraspecific transmission of shared parasites. We discuss the qualitative implications of parasite isocline shape for issues of mounting concern in conservation ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction to the theme issue that includes papers that identify how, where and why infectious diseases in wildlife emerge, while also addressing their possible conservation impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emergence of a new disease in a novel host is thought to be a rare outcome following frequent pathogen transfers between host species. However, few opportunities exist to examine whether disease emergence stems from a single successful pathogen transfer, and whether this successful lineage represents only one of several pathogen transfers between hosts. We examined the successful host transfer and subsequent evolution of the bacterial pathogen Mycoplasma gallisepticum, an emergent pathogen of house finches (Haemorhous (formerly Carpodacus) mexicanus). Our principal goals were to assess whether host transfer has been a repeated event between the original poultry hosts and house finches, whether only a single host transfer was ultimately responsible for the emergence of M. gallisepticum in these finches, and whether the spread of the pathogen from east to west across North America has resulted in spatial structuring in the pathogen. Using a phylogeny of M. gallisepticum based on 107 isolates from domestic poultry, house finches and other songbirds, we infer that the bacterium has repeatedly jumped between these two groups of hosts but with only a single lineage of M. gallisepticum persisting and evolving in house finches; bacterial evolution has produced monophyletic eastern and western North American subclades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Immune memory evolved to protect hosts from reinfection, but incomplete responses that allow future reinfection may inadvertently select for more-harmful pathogens. We present empirical and modeling evidence that incomplete immunity promotes the evolution of higher virulence in a natural host-pathogen system. We performed sequential infections of house finches with Mycoplasma gallisepticum strains of various levels of virulence. Virulent bacterial strains generated stronger host protection against reinfection than less virulent strains and thus excluded less virulent strains from infecting previously exposed hosts. In a two-strain model, the resulting fitness advantage selected for an almost twofold increase in pathogen virulence. Thus, the same immune systems that protect hosts from infection can concomitantly drive the evolution of more-harmful pathogens in nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few infectious diseases are entirely human-specific: Most human pathogens also circulate in animals or else originated in nonhuman hosts. Influenza, plague, and trypanosomiasis are classic examples of zoonotic infections that transmit from animals to humans. The multihost ecology of zoonoses leads to complex dynamics, and analytical tools, such as mathematical modeling, are vital to the development of effective control policies and research agendas. Much attention has focused on modeling pathogens with simpler life cycles and immediate global urgency, such as influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome. Meanwhile, vector-transmitted chronic, and protozoan infections have been neglected, as have crucial processes such as cross-species transmission. Progress in understanding and combating zoonoses requires a new generation of models that addresses a broader set of pathogen life histories and integrates across host species and scientific disciplines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A number of wildlife pathogens are generalist and can affect different host species characterized by a wide range of body sizes. In this work we analyze the role of allometric scaling of host vital and epidemiological rates in a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected (SEI) model. Our analysis shows that the transmission coefficient threshold for the disease to establish in the population scales allometrically (exponent = 0.45) with host size as well as the threshold at which limit cycles occur. In contrast, the threshold of the basic reproduction number for sustained oscillations to occur is independent of the host size and is always greater than 5. In the case of rabies, we show that the oscillation periods predicted by the model match those observed in the field for a wide range of host sizes. The population dynamics of the SEI model is also analyzed in the case of pathogens affecting multiple coexisting hosts with different body sizes. Our analyses show that the basic reproduction number for limit cycles to occur depends on the ratio between host sizes, that the oscillation period in a multihost community is set by the smaller species dynamics, and that intermediate interspecific disease transmission can stabilize the epidemic occurrence in wildlife communities. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Infectious diseases can cause rapid population declines or species extinctions. Many pathogens of terrestrial and marine taxa are sensitive to temperature, rainfall, and humidity, creating synergisms that could affect biodiversity. Climate warming can increase pathogen development and survival rates, disease transmission, and host susceptibility. Although most host-parasite systems are predicted to experience more frequent or severe disease impacts with warming, a subset of pathogens might decline with warming, releasing hosts from disease. Recently, changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation events have had a detectable influence on marine and terrestrial pathogens, including coral diseases, oyster pathogens, crop pathogens, Rift Valley fever, and human cholera. To improve our ability to predict epidemics in wild populations, it will be necessary to separate the independent and interactive effects of multiple climate drivers on disease impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]