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This paper studies the relationship between net primary productivity (NPP) and annual average air temperature (GT) at 0cm above ground in permafrost regions by using revised Chikugo NPP model, cubic spline interpolating functions, and nonlinear regression methods. The source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers were selected as the research areas. Results illustrate that: (1) There is significant non-linear relationship between NPP and GT in various typical years; (2) The maximum value of NPP is 6.17, 5.87, 7.73, and 5.41 DM·t·hm·a respectively, and the corresponding GT is 7.1, 10.0, 21.2, and 8.9°C respectively in 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2007; (3) In 1980, the sensitivity of NPP to GT is higher than in 1990, 2000 and 2007. This tendency shows that the NPP presents change from fluctuation to an adaptation process over time; (4) During 1980∼2007, the accumulated NPP was reduced to 8.05, and the corresponding carrying capacity of theoretical livestock reduced by 11%; (5) The shape of the demonstration region of ecological compensation system, livelihood support system, and science appraisal system in the source regions of Yangtze and Yellow Rivers are an important research for increasing the adaptation capacity and balancing protection and development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding climate change impacts on hydrological regime and assessing future water supplies are essential to effective water resources management and planning, which is particularly true for the Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change. In this study, future climate change in the TP was projected for 2041–2060 by a high‐resolution regional climate model, RegCM4, under 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs): 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Response of all key hydrological elements, that is, evapotranspiration, surface run‐off, baseflow, and snowmelt, to future climate in 2 typical catchments, the source regions of Yellow and Yangtze rivers, was further investigated by the variable infiltration capacity microscale hydrological model incorporated with a 2‐layer energy balance snow model and a frozen soil/permafrost algorithm at a 0.25° ×0.25° spatial scale. The results reveal that (a) spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature from RegCM4 agree fairly well with the data from China Meteorological Forcing Dataset, indicating that RegCM4 well reproduces historical climatic information and thus is reliable to support future projection; (b) precipitation increase by 0–70% and temperature rise by 1–4 °C would occur in the TP under 3 RCPs. A clear south‐eastern–north‐western spatial increasing gradient in precipitation would be seen. Besides, under RCP8.5, the peak increase in temperature would approach to 4 °C in spring and autumn in the east of the TP; (c) evapotranspiration would increase by 10–60% in 2 source regions due to the temperature rise, surface run‐off and baseflow in higher elevation region would experience larger increase dominantly due to the precipitation increase, and streamflow would display general increases by more than 3% and 5% in the source regions of Yellow and Yangtze rivers, respectively; (d) snowmelt contributes 11.1% and 16.2% to total run‐off in the source regions of Yellow and Yangtze rivers, respectively, during the baseline period. In the source region of Yangtze River, snowmelt run‐off would become more important with increase of 17.5% and 18.3%, respectively, under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 but decrease of 15.0% under RCP8.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers of China, glaciers, frozen ground, the hydrological system, and alpine vegetation have changed over the past decades years. Climatic causes of these variations have been analyzed using mean monthly air temperature and monthly precipitation between 1956 and 2000, and monthly evaporation from φ20 evaporation pans between 1961 and 1996. In the source region of the Yangtze River, lower temperature and plentiful precipitation during the 1960s and continuing into the early 1980s triggered a glacier advance that culminated in the early 1990s, while a robust temperature increase and precipitation decrease since 1986 has forced glaciers to retreat rapidly since 1995. Permafrost degradation is another consequence of the climatic warming. The variations in the hydrological system and alpine vegetation are controlled mainly by the climate during the warm season. Warmer and drier summer climate is the major cause of a degradation of the vegetation, desiccation of the high-cold marshland, a decrease in the areas and numbers of lakes and rivers in the middle and north source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, and a reduction in surface runoff in the source region of the Yangtze River for the last 20 years. The causes of eco-environmental change in Dari area, near the outlet from the source area of the Yellow River, are different from those elsewhere in the study area. A noticeable reduction in runoff in the source region of the Yellow River and degradation of alpine vegetation in Dari area are closely related to the permafrost degradation resulting from climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land cover changes affect ecological landscape spatial pattern, and evolving landscape patterns inevitably cause an evolution in ecosystem functionality. Various ecological landscape variables, such as biological productivity (plant biomass and stock capacity), soil nutrients (organic matter and N content) and water source conservation capacity are identified as landscape function characteristics. A quantitative method and digital model for analyzing evolving landscape functionality in the headwaters areas of the Yangtze River, China were devised. In the period 1986–2000, patch transitions of the region's evolving landscapes have been predominantly characterized by alpine cold swamp meadow, with the highest coverage tending to be steppified meadow or steppe, and desertification landscape such as sand and bare rock land expansion. As the result of such changes, alpine swamp areas decreased by 3.08 × 103 km2 and the alpine cold sparse steppe and bare rock and soil land increased by 6.48 × 103 km2 and 5.82 × 103 km2, respectively. Consequently, the grass biomass production decreased by 2627.15 Gg, of which alpine cold swamp meadows accounted for 55.9% of this loss. The overall stock capacity of the headwaters area of the Yangtze River decreased by 920.64 thousand sheep units, of which 502.02 thousand sheep units decreased in ACS (Alpine cold swamp) meadow transition. Soil organic matter and N contents decreased significantly in most alpine cold meadow and swamp meadow landscape patches. From 1986 to 2000 the total losses of soil organic matter and total N in the entire headwaters region amounted to 150.2 Gkg and 7.67 Gkg. Meanwhile, the landscape soil water capacity declined by 935.9 Mm3, of which 83.9% occurred in the ACS meadow transition. In the headwater area of the Yangtze River, the complex transition of landscape resulted in sharp eco-environmental deterioration. The main indication for these changes involved the intensity of the climate in this region is becoming drier and warmer, resulting in a gradual degradation of the permafrost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]