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Functional networks are powerful tools to study statistical interdependency structures in spatially extended or multivariable systems. They have been used to get insights into the dynamics of complex systems in various areas of science. In particular, percolation properties of correlation networks have been employed to identify early warning signals of critical transitions. In this work, we further investigate the corresponding potential of percolation measures for the anticipation of different types of sudden shifts in the state of coupled irregularly oscillating systems. As a paradigmatic model system, we study the dynamics of a ring of diffusively coupled noisy FitzHugh-Nagumo oscillators and show that, when the oscillators are nearly completely synchronized, the percolation-based precursors successfully provide very early warnings of the rapid switches between the two states of the system. We clarify the mechanisms behind the percolation transition by separating global trends given by the mean-field behavior from the synchronization of individual stochastic fluctuations. We then apply the same methodology to real-world data of sea surface temperature anomalies during different phases of the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation. This leads to a better understanding of the factors that make percolation precursors effective as early warning indicators of incipient El Ni\~no and La Ni\~na events.

In the past decades, boreal summers have been characterized by an increasing number of extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, including persistent heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall events with significant social, economic and environmental impacts. Many of these events have been associated with the presence of anomalous large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, in particular persistent blocking situations, i.e., nearly stationary spatial patterns of air pressure. To contribute to a better understanding of the emergence and dynamical properties of such situations, we construct complex networks representing the atmospheric circulation based on Lagrangian trajectory data of passive tracers advected within the atmospheric flow. For these Lagrangian flow networks, we study the spatial patterns of selected node properties prior to, during and after different atmospheric blocking events in Northern Hemisphere summer. We highlight the specific network characteristics associated with the sequence of strong blocking episodes over Europe during summer 2010 as an illustrative example. Our results demonstrate the ability of the node degree, entropy and harmonic closeness centrality based on outgoing links to trace important spatio-temporal characteristics of atmospheric blocking events. In particular, all three measures capture the effective separation of the stationary pressure cell forming the blocking high from the normal westerly flow and the deviation of the main atmospheric currents around it. Our results suggest the utility of further exploiting the Lagrangian flow network approach to atmospheric circulation in future targeted diagnostic and prognostic studies.

We study the vertical dispersion and distribution of negatively buoyant rigid microplastics within a realistic circulation model of the Mediterranean sea. We first propose an equation describing their idealized dynamics. In that framework, we evaluate the importance of some relevant physical effects: inertia, Coriolis force, small-scale turbulence and variable seawater density, and bound the relative error of simplifying the dynamics to a constant sinking velocity added to a large-scale velocity field. We then calculate the amount and vertical distribution of microplastic particles on the water column of the open ocean if their release from the sea surface is continuous at rates compatible with observations in the Mediterranean. The vertical distribution is found to be almost uniform with depth for the majority of our parameter range. Transient distributions from flash releases reveal a non-Gaussian character of the dispersion and various diffusion laws, both normal and anomalous. The origin of these behaviors is explored in terms of horizontal and vertical flow organization.

The study of connectivity patterns in networks has brought novel insights across diverse fields ranging from neurosciences to epidemic spreading or climate. In this context, betweenness centrality has demonstrated to be a very effective measure to identify nodes that act as focus of congestion, or bottlenecks, in the network. However, there is not a way to define betweenness outside the network framework. By analytically linking dynamical systems and network theory, we provide a trajectory-based formulation of betweenness, called Lagrangian betweenness, as a function of Lyapunov exponents. This extends the concept of betweenness beyond the context of network theory relating hyperbolic points and heteroclinic connections in any dynamical system to the structural bottlenecks of the network associated with it. Using modeled and observational velocity fields, we show that such bottlenecks are present and surprisingly persistent in the oceanic circulation across different spatio-temporal scales and we illustrate the role of these areas in driving fluid transport over vast oceanic regions. Analyzing plankton abundance data from the Kuroshio region of the Pacific Ocean, we find significant spatial correlations between measures of diversity and betweenness, suggesting promise for ecological applications.

Sedimentation of particles in the ocean leads to inhomogeneous horizontal distributions at depth, even if the release process is homogeneous. We study this phenomenon considering a horizontal sheet of sinking particles immersed in an oceanic flow, and determine how the particles are distributed when they sediment on the seabed (or are collected at a given depth). The study is performed from a Lagrangian viewpoint attending to the properties of the oceanic flow and the physical characteristics (size and density) of typical biogenic sinking particles. Two main processes determine the distribution, the stretching of the sheet caused by the flow and its projection on the surface where particles accumulate. These mechanisms are checked, besides an analysis of their relative importance to produce inhomogeneities, with numerical experiments in the Benguela region. Faster (heavier or larger) sinking particles distribute more homogeneously than slower ones., Comment: 24 pages, 8 figures. To appear in J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans

The skill of current predictions of the warm phase of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reduces significantly beyond a lag of six months. In this paper, we aim to increase this prediction skill at lags up to one year. The new method to do so combines a classical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average technique with a modern machine learning approach (through an Artificial Neural Network). The attributes in such a neural network are derived from topological properties of Climate Networks and are tested on both a Zebiak-Cane-type model and observations. For predictions up to six months ahead, the results of the hybrid model give a better skill than the CFSv2 ensemble prediction by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Moreover, results for a twelve month lead time prediction have a similar skill as the shorter lead time predictions., Comment: Earth Syst. Dynam., 2018

Quantifying the mechanisms of tracer dispersion in the ocean remains a central question in oceanography, for problems ranging from nutrient delivery to phytoplankton, to the early detection of contaminants. Most analyses have been based on Lagrangian concepts of transport, focusing on the identification of features minimizing fluid exchange among regions, or more recently on network tools which focus on connectivity and transport pathways. Neither of these approaches allows ranking the geographical sites of major water passage and selecting them so that they monitor waters coming from separate parts of the ocean. These are instead key criteria when deploying an observing network. Here we address this issue by estimating at any point the extent of the ocean surface which transits through it in a given time window. With such information we are able to rank the sites with major fluxes that intercept waters originating from different regions. We show that this allows us to optimize an observing network, where a set of sampling sites can be chosen for monitoring the largest flux of water dispersing out of a given region. When the analysis is performed backward in time, this method allows us to identify the major sources which feed a target region. The method is first applied to a minimalistic model of a mesoscale eddy field, and then to realistic satellite-derived ocean currents in the Kerguelen area. In this region we identify the optimal location of fixed stations capable of intercepting the trajectories of 43 surface drifters, along with statistics on the temporal persistence of the stations determined in this way. We then identify possible hotspots of micro-nutrient enrichment for the recurrent spring phytoplanktonic bloom occuring here. Promising applications to other fields, such as larval connectivity, marine spatial planning or contaminant detection, are then discussed., Comment: To appear in Journal of Marine Systems

In an incompressible flow, fluid density remains invariant along fluid element trajectories. This implies that the spatial distribution of non-interacting noninertial particles in such flows cannot develop density inhomogeneities beyond those that are already introduced in the initial condition. However, in certain practical situations, density is measured or accumulated on (hyper-) surfaces of dimensionality lower than the full dimensionality of the flow in which the particles move. An example is the observation of particle distributions sedimented on the floor of the ocean. In such cases, even if the initial distribution of noninertial particles is uniform within a finite support in an incompressible flow, advection in the flow will give rise to inhomogeneities in the observed density. In this paper we analytically derive, in the framework of an initially homogeneous particle sheet sedimenting towards a bottom surface, the relationship between the geometry of the flow and the emerging distribution. From a physical point of view, we identify the two processes that generate inhomogeneities to be the stretching within the sheet, and the projection of the deformed sheet onto the target surface. We point out that an extreme form of inhomogeneity, caustics, can develop for sheets. We exemplify our geometrical results with simulations of particle advection in a simple kinematic flow, study the dependence on various parameters involved, and illustrate that the basic mechanisms work similarly if the initial (homogeneous) distribution occupies a more general region of finite extension rather than a sheet., Comment: 56 pages, 17 figures

The three dimensional structure, dynamics and dispersion characteristics of a simulated upwelling filament in the Iberian upwelling system are analyzed using Lagrangian tools. We used a realistic regional simulation of the western Iberian shelf which is concomitant with an in-situ oceanographic campaign that surveyed the area. We compute 3d fields of finite--size Lyapunov exponents (FSLE) from 3d velocity fields and extract the field's ridges to study the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) evolving around the filament. We find that the most intense curtain-like LCSs delimit the boundaries of the whole filamentary structure whose general properties match well the observations. The filament interior is characterized by small dispersion of fluid elements. Furthermore, we identify a weak LCS separating the filament into a warmer vein and a colder filament associated with the interaction of a mesoscale eddy with the upwelling front. The cold upwelled water parcels move along the filament conserving their density. The filament itself is characterized by small dispersion of fluid elements in its interior. The comparison of LCSs with potential temperature and salinity gradient fields shows that the outer limits of the filament coincide with regions of large hydrographic gradients, similar to those observed, explaining the isolation of the interior of the filament with the surrounding waters. We conclude that the Lagrangian analysis used in this work is useful in explaining the dynamics of cross-shore exchanges of materials between coastal regions and the open ocean due to mesoscale processes., Comment: 24 pages, 11 figures

We study the problem of sinking particles in a realistic oceanic flow, with major energetic structures in the mesoscale, focussing in the range of particle sizes and densities appropriate for marine biogenic particles. Our aim is to unify the theoretical investigations with its applications in the oceanographic context and considering a mesoscale simulation of the oceanic velocity field. By using the equation of motion of small particles in a fluid flow, we assess the influence of physical processes such as the Coriolis force and the inertia of the particles, and we conclude that they represent negligible corrections to the most important terms, which are passive motion with the velocity of the flow, and a constant added vertical velocity due to gravity. Even if within this approximation three-dimensional clustering of particles can not occur, two-dimensional cuts or projections of the evolving three-dimensional density can display inhomogeneities similar to the ones observed in sinking ocean particles., Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures

Complex network theory provides an elegant and powerful framework to statistically investigate different types of systems such as society, brain or the structure of local and long-range dynamical interrelationships in the climate system. Network links in climate networks typically imply information, mass or energy exchange. However, the specific connection between oceanic or atmospheric flows and the climate network's structure is still unclear. We propose a theoretical approach for verifying relations between the correlation matrix and the climate network measures, generalizing previous studies and overcoming the restriction to stationary flows. Our methods are developed for correlations of a scalar quantity (temperature, for example) which satisfies an advection-diffusion dynamics in the presence of forcing and dissipation. Our approach reveals that correlation networks are not sensitive to steady sources and sinks and the profound impact of the signal decay rate on the network topology. We illustrate our results with calculations of degree and clustering for a meandering flow resembling a geophysical ocean jet.

Abrupt transitions are ubiquitous in the dynamics of complex systems. Finding precursors, i.e. early indicators of their arrival, is fundamental in many areas of science ranging from electrical engineering to climate. However, obtaining warnings of an approaching transition well in advance remains an elusive task. Here we show that a functional network, constructed from spatial correlations of the system's time series, experiences a percolation transition way before the actual system reaches a bifurcation point due to the collective phenomena leading to the global change. Concepts from percolation theory are then used to introduce early warning precursors that anticipate the system's tipping point. We illustrate the generality and versatility of our percolation-based framework with model systems experiencing different types of bifurcations and with Sea Surface Temperature time series associated to El Nino phenomenon., Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures, to appear in Scientific Reports

A Lagrangian flow network is constructed for the atmospheric blocking of eastern Europe and western Russia in summer 2010. We compute the most probable paths followed by fluid particles which reveal the {\it Omega}-block skeleton of the event. A hierarchy of sets of highly probable paths is introduced to describe transport pathways when the most probable path alone is not representative enough. These sets of paths have the shape of narrow coherent tubes flowing close to the most probable one. Thus, even when the most probable path is not very significant in terms of its probability, it still identifies the geometry of the transport pathways., Comment: Appendix added with path calculations for a simple kinematic model flow

We consider paths in weighted and directed temporal networks, introducing tools to compute sets of paths of high probability. We quantify the relative importance of the most probable path between two nodes with respect to the whole set of paths, and to a subset of highly probable paths which incorporate most of the connection probability. These concepts are used to provide alternative definitions of betweenness centrality. We apply our formalism to a transport network describing surface flow in the Mediterranean sea. Despite the full transport dynamics is described by a very large number of paths we find that, for realistic time scales, only a very small subset of high probability paths (or even a single most probable one) is enough to characterize global connectivity properties of the network.

We represent transport between different regions of a fluid domain by flow networks, constructed from the discrete representation of the Perron-Frobenius or transfer operator associated to the fluid advection dynamics. The procedure is useful to analyze fluid dynamics in geophysical contexts, as illustrated by the construction of a flow network associated to the surface circulation in the Mediterranean sea. We use network-theory tools to analyze the flow network and gain insights into transport processes. In particular we quantitatively relate dispersion and mixing characteristics, classically quantified by Lyapunov exponents, to the degree of the network nodes. A family of network entropies is defined from the network adjacency matrix, and related to the statistics of stretching in the fluid, in particular to the Lyapunov exponent field. Finally we use a network community detection algorithm, Infomap, to partition the Mediterranean network into coherent regions, i.e. areas internally well mixed, but with little fluid interchange between them., Comment: 16 pages, 15 figures. v2: published version

Oceanic dispersal and connectivity have been identified as crucial factors for structuring marine populations and designing Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). Focusing on larval dispersal by ocean currents, we propose an approach coupling Lagrangian transport and new tools from Network Theory to characterize marine connectivity in the Mediterranean basin. Larvae of different pelagic durations and seasons are modeled as passive tracers advected in a simulated oceanic surface flow from which a network of connected areas is constructed. Hydrodynamical provinces extracted from this network are delimited by frontiers which match multi-scale oceanographic features. By examining the repeated occurrence of such boundaries, we identify the spatial scales and geographic structures that would control larval dispersal across the entire seascape. Based on these hydrodynamical units, we study novel connectivity metrics for existing reserves. Our results are discussed in the context of ocean biogeography and MPAs design, having ecological and managerial implications.

Coastal transport in the Bay of Palma, a small region in the island of Mallorca, Spain, is characterized in terms of Lagrangian descriptors. The data sets used for this study are the output for two months (one in autumn and one in summer) of a high resolution numerical model, ROMS, forced atmospherically and with a spatial resolution of 300 m. The two months were selected because its different wind regime, which is the main driver of the sea dynamics in this area. Finite-size Lyapunov Exponents (FSLEs) were used to locate semi-persistent Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS) and to understand the different flow regimes in the Bay. The different wind directions and regularity in the two months have a clear impact on the surface Bay dynamics, whereas only topographic features appear clearly in the bottom structures. The fluid interchange between the Bay and the open ocean was tudied by computing particle trajectories and Residence Times (RT) maps. The escape rate of particles out of the Bay is qualitatively different, with a 32$%$ more of escape rate of particles to the ocean in October than in July, owing to the different geometric characteristics of the flow. We show that LCSs separate regions with different transport properties by displaying spatial distributions of residence times on synoptic Lagrangian maps together with the location of the LCSs. Correlations between the time-dependent behavior of FSLE and RT are also investigated, showing a negative dependence when the stirring characterized by FSLE values moves particles in the direction of escape.

In this paper we use the finite size Lyapunov Exponent (FSLE) to characterize Lagrangian coherent structures in three-dimensional (3d) turbulent flows. Lagrangian coherent structures act as the organizers of transport in fluid flows and are crucial to understand their stirring and mixing properties. Generalized maxima (ridges) of the FSLE fields are used to locate these coherent structures. Three-dimensional FSLE fields are calculated in two phenomenologically distinct turbulent flows: a wall-bounded flow (channel flow) and a regional oceanic flow obtained by numerical solution of the primitive equations where two-dimensional turbulence dominates. In the channel flow, autocorrelations of the FSLE field show that the structure is substantially different from the near wall to the mid-channel region and relates well to the more widely studied Eulerian coherent structure of the turbulent channel flow. The ridges of the FSLE field have complex shapes due to the 3d character of the turbulent fluctuations. In the oceanic flow, strong horizontal stirring is present and the flow regime is similar to that of 2d turbulence where the domain is populated by coherent eddies that interact strongly. This in turn results in the presence of high FSLE lines throughout the domain leading to strong non-local mixing. The ridges of the FSLE field are quasi-vertical surfaces, indicating that the horizontal dynamics dominates the flow. Indeed, due to rotation and stratification, vertical motions in the ocean are much less intense than horizontal ones. This suppression is absent in the channel flow, as the 3d character of the FSLE ridges shows.

Recent studies, both based on remote sensed data and coupled models, showed a reduction of biological productivity due to vigorous horizontal stirring in upwelling areas. In order to better understand this phenomenon, we consider a system of oceanic flow from the Benguela area coupled with a simple biogeochemical model of Nutrient-Phyto-Zooplankton (NPZ) type. For the flow three different surface velocity fields are considered: one derived from satellite altimetry data, and the other two from a regional numerical model at two different spatial resolutions. We compute horizontal particle dispersion in terms of Lyapunov Exponents, and analyzed their correlations with phytoplankton concentrations. Our modelling approach confirms that in the south Benguela there is a reduction of biological activity when stirring is increased. Two-dimensional offshore advection and latitudinal difference in Primary Production, also mediated by the flow, seem to be the dominant processes involved. We estimate that mesoscale processes are responsible for 30 to 50% of the offshore fluxes of biological tracers. In the northern area, other factors not taken into account in our simulation are influencing the ecosystem. We suggest explanations for these results in the context of studies performed in other eastern boundary upwelling areas.

We study three dimensional oceanic Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) in the Benguela region, as obtained from an output of the ROMS model. To do that we first compute Finite-Size Lyapunov exponent (FSLE) fields in the region volume, characterizing mesoscale stirring and mixing. Average FSLE values show a general decreasing trend with depth, but there is a local maximum at about 100 m depth. LCSs are extracted as ridges of the calculated FSLE fields. They present a "curtain-like" geometry in which the strongest attracting and repelling structures appear as quasivertical surfaces. LCSs around a particular cyclonic eddy, pinched off from the upwelling front are also calculated. The LCSs are confirmed to provide pathways and barriers to transport in and out of the eddy.

Much of atmospheric and oceanic transport is associated with coherent structures. Lagrangian methods are emerging as optimal tools for their identification and analysis. An important Lagrangian technique which is starting to be widely used in oceanography is that of Finite-Size Lyapunov Exponents (FSLEs). Despite this growing relevance there are still many open questions concerning the reliability of the FSLEs in order to analyse the ocean dynamics. In particular, it is still unclear how robust they are when confronted with real data. In this paper we analyze the effect on this Lagrangian technique of the two most important effects when facing real data, namely noise and dynamics of unsolved scales. Our results, using as a benchmarch data from a primitive numerical model of the Mediterranean Sea, show that even when some dynamics is missed the FSLEs results still give an accurate picture of the oceanic transport properties., Comment: 28 pages, 12 figures

We analyze with the tools of lobe dynamics the velocity field from a numerical simulation of the surface circulation in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea. We identify relevant hyperbolic trajectories and their manifolds, and show that the transport mechanism known as the `turnstile', previously identified in abstract dynamical systems and simplified model flows, is also at work in this complex and rather realistic ocean flow. In addition nonlinear dynamics techniques are shown to be powerful enough to identify the key geometric structures in this part of the Mediterranean. In particular the North Balearic Front, the westernmost part of the transition zone between saltier and fresher waters in the Western Mediterranean is interpreted in terms of the presence of a semipermanent ``Lagrangian barrier'' across which little transport occurs. Our construction also reveals the routes along which this transport happens. Topological changes in that picture, associated with the crossing by eddies and that may be interpreted as the breakdown of the front, are also observed during the simulation., Comment: 34 pages, 6 (multiple) figures. Version with higher quality figures available from http://www.imedea.uib.es/physdept/publications/showpaper_en.php?indice=1764 . Problems with paper size fixed

Transport from nutrient-rich coastal upwellings is a key factor influencing biological activity in surrounding waters and even in the open ocean. The rich upwelling in the North-Western African coast is known to interact strongly with the wake of the Canary islands, giving rise to filaments and other mesoscale structures of increased productivity. Motivated by this scenario, we introduce a simplified two-dimensional kinematic flow describing the wake of an island in a stream, and study the conditions under which there is a net transport of substances across the wake. For small vorticity values in the wake, it acts as a barrier, but there is a transition when increasing vorticity so that for values appropriate to the Canary area, it entrains fluid and enhances cross-wake transport., Comment: 28 pages, 13 figures

We use Lagrangian diagnostics (the leaking and the exchange methods) to characterize surface transport out of and between selected regions in the Western Mediterranean. Velocity fields are obtained from a numerical model. Residence times of water of Atlantic origin in the Algerian basin, with a strong seasonal dependence, are calculated. Exchange rates between these waters and the ones occupying the northern basin are also evaluated. At surface, northward transport is dominant, and involves filamental features and eddy structures that can be identified with the Algerian eddies. The impact on these results of the presence of small scale turbulent motions is evaluated by adding Lagrangian diffusion., Comment: 21 pages using the elsart style. Higher resolution figures available from http://www.imedea.uib.es/physdept/publications/showpaper_en.php?indice=1194

We characterize horizontal mixing and transport structures in the surface circulation of the Mediterranean Sea, as obtained from a primitive equation circulation model. We calculate the Finite Size Lyapunov Exponents (FSLEs) of the velocity data set, which gives a direct measure of the local stirring. By proper election of the FSLE parameters, we focus on the mesoscale structures, locating a number of vortices embedded in an intricate network of high-stretching lines. These lines control transport in the system. At the edge of the vortices, a dense tangle of line intersections appears, identifying strong mixing. The spatial distribution of FSLEs, averaged over one year, allows to classify areas in the Mediterranean basin according by their mixing activity. The space average of FSLEs on selected geographical regions gives a measure for quantifying and comparing the mixing seasonal variability., Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures. Higher quality figures avalaible from http://www.imedea.uib.es/physdept/publications/showpaper_en.php?indice=1117 To appear in Geophysical Research Letters

The dynamics of coherent structures present in real-world environmental data is analyzed. The method developed in this Paper combines the power of the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) technique to identify these coherent structures in experimental data sets, and its optimality in providing Galerkin basis for projecting and reducing complex dynamical models. The POD basis used is the one obtained from the experimental data. We apply the procedure to analyze coherent structures in an oceanic setting, the ones arising from instabilities of the Algerian current, in the western Mediterranean Sea. Data are from satellite altimetry providing Sea Surface Height, and the model is a two-layer quasigeostrophic system. A four-dimensional dynamical system is obtained that correctly describe the observed coherent structures (moving eddies). Finally, a bifurcation analysis is performed on the reduced model., Comment: 23 pages, 7 figures

Small-scale oceanic motions, in combination with bottom topography, induce mean large-scale along-isobaths flows. The direction of these mean flows is usually found to be anticyclonic (cyclonic) over bumps (depressions). Here we employ a quasigeostrophic model to show that the current direction of these topographically induced large-scale flows can be reversed by the small-scale variability. This result addresses the existence of a new bulk effect from the small-scale activity that could have strong consequences on the circulation of the world's ocean., Comment: 14 pages, 1 GIF file, uses the agums.sty style file(included). To appear in Geophysical Research Letters. Related material available from http://www.imedea.uib.es/Nonlinear/research_topics/GeoPhys/geo.html

We propose a nonlinear ocean forecasting technique based on a combination of genetic algorithms and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The method is used to forecast the space-time variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Alboran Sea. The genetic algorithm finds the equations that best describe the behaviour of the different temporal amplitude functions in the EOF decomposition and, therefore, enables global forecasting of the future time-variability., Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures; latex compiled with agums.sty

We study the appearance of large scale mean motion sustained by stochastic forcing on a rotating fluid (in the quasigeostrophic approximation) flowing over topography. As in other noise rectification phenomena, the effect requires nonlinearity and absence of detailed balance to occur. By application of an analytical coarse graining procedure we identify the physical mechanism producing such effect: It is a forcing coming from the small scales that manifests in a change in the effective viscosity operator and in the effective noise statistical properties., Comment: 4 pages revtex, including 5 figures. Related material at http://www.imedea.uib.es/Nonlinear and http://www.imedea.uib.es/Oceanography Figure 4 replaced by a slightly better one

We study the development of mean structures in a nonlinear model of large scale ocean dynamics with bottom topography and dissipation, and forced with a noise term. We show that the presence of noise in this nonlinear model leads to persistent average currents directed along isobaths. At variance with previous works we use a scale unselective dissipation, so that the phenomenon can not be explained in terms of minimum enstrophy states. The effect requires the presence of both the nonlinear and the random terms, and can be though of as an ordering of the stochastic energy input by the combined effect of nonlinearity and topography. The statistically steady state is well described by a generalized canonical equilibrium with mean energy and enstrophy determined by a balance between random forcing and dissipation. This result allows predicting the strengh of the noise-sustained currents. Finally we discuss the relevance that these noise-induced currents could have on real ocean circulation., Comment: 11 pages REVTeX. Includes 4 figures using epsf. Related material in http://www.imedea.uib.es/Nonlinear and http://www.imedea.uib.es/Oceanography