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A social system is susceptible to perturbation when its collective properties depend sensitively on a few pivotal components. Using the information geometry of minimal models from statistical physics, we develop an approach to identify pivotal components to which coarse-grained, or aggregate, properties are sensitive. As an example, we introduce our approach on a reduced toy model with a median voter who always votes in the majority. The sensitivity of majority-minority divisions to changing voter behaviour pinpoints the unique role of the median. More generally, the sensitivity identifies pivotal components that precisely determine collective outcomes generated by a complex network of interactions. Using perturbations to target pivotal components in the models, we analyse datasets from political voting, finance and Twitter. Across these systems, we find remarkable variety, from systems dominated by a median-like component to those whose components behave more equally. In the context of political institutions such as courts or legislatures, our methodology can help describe how changes in voters map to new collective voting outcomes. For economic indices, differing system response reflects varying fiscal conditions across time. Thus, our information-geometric approach provides a principled, quantitative framework that may help assess the robustness of collective outcomes to targeted perturbation and compare social institutions, or even biological networks, with one another and across time.

A classification of companies into sectors of the economy is important for macroeconomic analysis and for investments into the sector-specific financial indices and exchange traded funds (ETFs). Major industrial classification systems and financial indices have historically been based on expert opinion and developed manually. Here we show how unsupervised machine learning can provide a more objective and comprehensive broad-level sector decomposition of stocks. An emergent low-dimensional structure in the space of historical stock price returns automatically identifies "canonical sectors" in the market, and assigns every stock a participation weight into these sectors. Furthermore, by analyzing data from different periods, we show how these weights for listed firms have evolved over time., Comment: Some new figures; minor textual changes

We consider the incidence of text "reuse" by researchers, via a systematic pairwise comparison of the text content of all articles deposited to arXiv.org from 1991--2012. We measure the global frequencies of three classes of text reuse, and measure how chronic text reuse is distributed among authors in the dataset. We infer a baseline for accepted practice, perhaps surprisingly permissive compared with other societal contexts, and a clearly delineated set of aberrant authors. We find a negative correlation between the amount of reused text in an article and its influence, as measured by subsequent citations. Finally, we consider the distribution of countries of origin of articles containing large amounts of reused text., Comment: 6 pages, plus 10 pages of supplementary material. To appear in PNAS (online 8 Dec 2014)

To mark the 20th anniversary of the (14 Aug 1991) commencement of hep-th@xxx.lanl.gov (now arXiv.org), I've adapted this article from one that first appeared in Physics World (2008), was later reprinted (with permission) in Learned Publishing (2009), but never appeared in arXiv. I trace some historical context and early development of the resource, its later trajectory, and close with some thoughts about the future. This version is closer to my original draft, with some updates for this occasion, plus an astounding $2^5$ added footnotes., Comment: 9 pages. v2: additional edifying comments interspersed throughout

We continue investigation of the effect of position in announcements of newly received articles, a single day artifact, with citations received over the course of ensuing years. Earlier work [arXiv:0907.4740, arXiv:0805.0307] focused on the "visibility" effect for positions near the beginnings of announcements, and on the "self-promotion" effect associated to authors intentionally aiming for these positions, with both found correlated to a later enhanced citation rate. Here we consider a "reverse-visibility" effect for positions near the ends of announcements, and on a "procrastination" effect associated to submissions made within the 20 minute period just before the daily deadline. For two large subcommunities of theoretical high energy physics, we find a clear "reverse-visibility" effect, in which articles near the ends of the lists receive a boost in both short-term readership and long-term citations, almost comparable in size to the "visibility" effect documented earlier. For one of those subcommunities, we find an additional "procrastination" effect, in which last position articles submitted shortly before the deadline have an even higher citation rate than those that land more accidentally in that position. We consider and eliminate geographic effects as responsible for the above, and speculate on other possible causes, including "oblivious" and "nightowl" effects., Comment: 13p, appeared JASIST on-line first (12 Oct 2010)

arXiv.org mediates contact with the literature for entire scholarly communities, both through provision of archival access and through daily email and web announcements of new materials, potentially many screenlengths long. We confirm and extend a surprising correlation between article position in these initial announcements, ordered by submission time, and later citation impact, due primarily to intentional "self-promotion" on the part of authors. A pure "visibility" effect was also present: the subset of articles accidentally in early positions fared measurably better in the long-term citation record than those lower down. Astrophysics articles announced in position 1, for example, overall received a median number of citations 83\% higher, while those there accidentally had a 44\% visibility boost. For two large subcommunities of theoretical high energy physics, hep-th and hep-ph articles announced in position 1 had median numbers of citations 50\% and 100\% larger than for positions 5--15, and the subsets there accidentally had visibility boosts of 38\% and 71\%. We also consider the positional effects on early readership. The median numbers of early full text downloads for astro-ph, hep-th, and hep-ph articles announced in position 1 were 82\%, 61\%, and 58\% higher than for lower positions, respectively, and those there accidentally had medians visibility-boosted by 53\%, 44\%, and 46\%. Finally, we correlate a variety of readership features with long-term citations, using machine learning methods, thereby extending previous results on the predictive power of early readership in a broader context. We conclude with some observations on impact metrics and dangers of recommender mechanisms., Comment: 28 pages, to appear in JASIST

Stephen Hawking's recent concession that black holes do not irretrievably eradicate information after all has garnered much attention. It is refreshing to see the public focused, if just for a moment, on an important conundrum that has fascinated theoretical physicists for three decades, and prompted much conceptual progress. The scientific issues, however, remain much less settled than Dr. Hawking's celebrated wager on the question.