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Simple demographic events, the survival and reproduction of individuals, drive population dynamics. These demographic events are influenced by genetic and environmental parameters, and are the focus of many evolutionary and ecological investigations that aim to predict and understand population change. However, such a focus often neglects the stochastic events that individuals experience throughout their lives. These stochastic events also influence survival and reproduction and thereby evolutionary and ecological dynamics. Here, we illustrate the influence of such non-selective demographic variability on population dynamics using population projection models of an experimental population of Plantago lanceolata. Our analysis shows that the variability in survival and reproduction among individuals is largely due to demographic stochastic variation with only modest effects of differences in environment, genes, and their interaction. Common expectations of population growth, based on expected lifetime reproduction and generation time, can be misleading when demographic stochastic variation is large. Large demographic stochastic variation exhibited within genotypes can lower population growth and slow evolutionary adaptive dynamics. Our results accompany recent investigations that call for more focus on stochastic variation in fitness components, such as survival, reproduction, and functional traits, rather than dismissal of this variation as uninformative noise., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

When plants establish outside their native range, their ability to adapt to the new environment is influenced by both demography and dispersal. However, the relative importance of these two factors is poorly understood. To quantify the influence of demography and dispersal on patterns of genetic diversity underlying adaptation, we used data from a globally distributed demographic research network comprising 35 native and 18 nonnative populations of Plantago lanceolata Species-specific simulation experiments showed that dispersal would dilute demographic influences on genetic diversity at local scales. Populations in the native European range had strong spatial genetic structure associated with geographic distance and precipitation seasonality. In contrast, nonnative populations had weaker spatial genetic structure that was not associated with environmental gradients but with higher within-population genetic diversity. Our findings show that dispersal caused by repeated, long-distance, human-mediated introductions has allowed invasive plant populations to overcome environmental constraints on genetic diversity, even without strong demographic changes. The impact of invasive plants may, therefore, increase with repeated introductions, highlighting the need to constrain future introductions of species even if they already exist in an area., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Individuals in a large experimental field population, of the short-lived perennial species Plantago lanceolata, were followed to determine the sources of variation that influence mortality and life span. The design included multiple age groups with initially similar genetic structure, which made it possible to separate age effects from period effects and to identify the genetic component to variation in life span. During a period of stress, individuals of all ages showed parallel increases in mortality but different cohorts experienced this period of high mortality at different ages. This then influenced the distribution of life spans across cohorts. Age and size-age interactions influenced mortality during the period of stress. Smaller individuals died but only if they were old. Additionally, growth and age interacted with stress such that older individuals had negative growth and high mortality whereas younger individuals had positive growth and relatively lower mortality during stress. The results of this study show that it is not simply the environment that can have a major impact on demography in natural populations; rather, age, size and growth can interact with the environment to influence mortality and life span when the environment is stressful., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The theory of evolution via natural selection predicts that the genetic composition of wild populations changes over time in response to the environment. Different genotypes should exhibit different demographic patterns, but genetic variation in demography is often impossible to separate from environmental variation. Here, we asked if genetic variation is important in determining demographic patterns. We answer this question using a long-term field experiment combined with general linear modeling of deterministic population growth rates (lambda), deterministic life table response experiment (LTRE) analysis, and stochastic simulation of demography by paternal lineage in a short-lived perennial plant, Plantago lanceolata, in which we replicated genotypes across four cohorts using a standard breeding design. General linear modeling showed that growth rate varied significantly with year, spatial block, and sire. In LTRE analysis of all cohorts, the strongest influences on growth rate were from year x spatial block, and cohort x year x spatial block interactions. In analysis of genetics vs. temporal environmental variation, the strongest impacts on growth rate were from year and year x sire. Finally, stochastic simulation suggested different genetic composition among cohorts after 100 years, and different population growth rates when genetic differences were accounted for than when they were not. We argue that genetic variation, genotype x environment interactions, natural selection, and cohort effects should be better integrated into population ecological studies, as these processes should result in deviations from projected deterministic and stochastic population parameters.

Theory suggests that iteroparity may confer greater fitness than semelparity in situations in which temporal environmental variation is high and unpredictable. Variable age-specific mortality, density dependence, and other factors may also favor iteroparity over semelparity. Here, we empirically test the adaptive benefits of greater numbers of reproductive years in a study of reproductive schedules in an experimental population of a short-lived polycarpic perennial, Plantago lanceolata. A large experimental population was established that included four cohorts with similar genetic structure. Individuals were censused for mortality, size, and reproduction for seven years. Plants experienced variable numbers of reproductive years, but one or two years were most common (approximately 46.7% of the population reproduced only once). The probability of flowering at least once prior to death was determined strongly by extrinsic, environmental or intrinsic but environmentally influenced variables, including early-life size, cohort, and block, but also varied with a number of interactions involving paternal lineage. Maternal effects explained small but significant components of the variance in the number of reproductive years among individuals in each cohort, while paternal effects were significant in only two cohorts. Number of reproductive years contributed significantly to fitness in this system, more so than all other variables tested, although most of the variation in relative fitness may be attributed ultimately to environmental influences. We suggest that the high proportion of each cohort composed of plants reproducing only once may be due to environmental constraints on either growth or size. Such environmental influences, particularly on early life size, may result in small but important indirect effects on fitness.

We know very little about aging (senescence) in natural populations, and even less about plant aging. Demographic aging is identified by an increasing rate of mortality following reproductive maturity. In natural populations, quantifying aging is often confounded because changes in mortality may be influenced by both short- and long-term environmental fluctuations as well as age-dependent changes in performance. Plants can be easily marked and monitored longitudinally in natural populations yet the age-dependent dynamics of mortality are not known. This study was designed to determine whether a plant species, Plantago lanceolata, shows demographic aging in its natural environment. A large, multiple-cohort design was used to separate age-independent and age-dependent processes. Seven years of results show environmental influences on mortality as evidenced by synchronous changes in mortality across four cohorts over time. Age-dependent mortality was found through an age-by-environment interaction when the oldest cohorts had significantly higher mortality relative to the younger cohorts during times of stress. Neither size nor quantity of reproduction could explain this variation in mortality across cohorts. These results demonstrate demographic senescence in a natural population of plants.

Accurate measures of age-dependent mortality are critical to life-history analysis and measures of fitness, yet these measures are difficult to obtain in natural populations. Age-dependent mortality patterns can be obscured not only by seasonal variation in environmental conditions and reproduction but also by changes in the heterogeneity among individuals in the population over time due to selection. This study of Plantago lanceolata uses longitudinal data from a field study with a large number of individuals to develop a model to estimate the shape of the baseline hazard function that represents the age-dependent risk of mortality. The model developed here uses both constant (genetics, spatial location) and time-varying (temperature, rainfall, reproduction, size) covariates not only to estimate the underlying mortality pattern but also to demonstrate that the risk of mortality associated with fitness components can change with time/age. Moreover, this analysis suggests that increasing size after reproductive maturity may allow this plant species to escape from demographic senescence.

Life-history traits can play important roles in determining the course of ecological species interactions. We explored the consequences of host age on a host-pathogen interaction by quantifying pathogen frequency in an age-structured host population. Our project was motivated by an interest in whether the demographic structure of a host population has consequences for species interactions. In 2 successive years, we planted large cohorts of the perennial herb Plantago lanceolata in its natural environment and observed infection by Fusarium moniliforme, a non-lethal floral fungal pathogen, over 3 years. We documented substantial variation of pathogen frequency across years and between cohorts. Logistic regression revealed that pathogen frequency increased with the number of inflorescences produced and with evidence of prior pathogen presence, whereas it decreased with increasing plant longevity. In addition, interannual variation and an age-year interaction contributed to the observed pathogen frequencies. There was a significant positive effect of age on pathogen frequency overall, but this was not consistent over all ages. Pathogen frequency was higher in 2-year-old plants than in 1-year-olds, suggesting that age-structure can influence the host-pathogen interaction. This pattern did not continue into 3-year-old plants. A possible explanation for this is that selective mortality allows only generally robust plants, and consequently the most resistant plants, to survive to the oldest ages.