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Strengthening malaria surveillance is a key intervention needed to reduce the global disease burden. Reliable serological markers of recent malaria exposure could improve current surveillance methods by allowing for accurate estimates of infection incidence from limited data. We studied the IgG antibody response to 111 Plasmodium falciparum proteins in 65 adult travellers followed longitudinally after a natural malaria infection in complete absence of re-exposure. We identified a combination of five serological markers that detect exposure within the previous three months with >80% sensitivity and specificity. Using mathematical modelling, we examined the antibody kinetics and determined that responses informative of recent exposure display several distinct characteristics: rapid initial boosting and decay, less inter-individual variation in response kinetics, and minimal persistence over time. Such serological exposure markers could be incorporated into routine malaria surveillance to guide efforts for malaria control and elimination., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Prevalence and levels of antibodies to multiple Plasmodium falciparum antigens show promise as tools for estimating malaria exposure. In a highland area of Kenya with unstable transmission, we assessed the presence and levels of antibodies to 12 pre-erythrocytic and blood-stage P. falciparum antigens by multiplex cytometric bead assay or ELISA in 604 individuals in August 2007, with follow-up testing in this cohort in April 2008, April 2009, and May 2010. Four hundred individuals were tested at all four time points. During this period, the only substantial malaria incidence occurred from April to August 2009. Antibody prevalence in adults was high at all time points (> 70%) for apical membrane antigen 1, erythrocyte-binding antigen 175, erythrocyte-binding protein-2, glutamate rich protein (GLURP)-R2, merozoite surface protein (MSP) 1 (19), MSP-1 (42), and liver-stage antigen-1; moderate (30-70%) for GLURP-R0, MSP-3, and thrombospondin-related adhesive protein; and low (< 30%) for SE and circumsporozoite protein (CSP). Changes in community-wide malaria exposure were best reflected in decreasing antibody levels overtime for highly immunogenic antigens, and in antibody seroprevalence overtime for the less-immunogenic antigens. Over the 3 years, antibody levels to all antigens except CSP and schizont extract (SE) decreased in an age-dependent manner. Prevalence and levels of antibodies to all antigens except CSP and SE increased with age. Increases in antibody prevalence and levels to CSP and SE coincided with increases in community-wide malaria incidence. Antibody levels to multiple P. falciparum antigens decrease in the absence of consistent transmission. Multiplex assays that assess both the presence and level of antibodies to multiple pre-erythrocytic and blood-stage P. falciparum antigens may provide the most useful estimates of past and recent malaria transmission in areas of unstable transmission and could be useful tools in malaria control and elimination campaigns.

Antibodies against P. falciparum merozoites fix complement to inhibit blood-stage replication in naturally-acquired and vaccine-induced immunity; however, specific targets of these functional antibodies and their importance in protective immunity are unknown. Among malaria-exposed individuals, we show that complement-fixing antibodies to merozoites are more strongly correlated with protective immunity than antibodies that inhibit growth quantified using the current reference assay for merozoite vaccine evaluation. We identify merozoite targets of complement-fixing antibodies and identify antigen-specific complement-fixing antibodies that are strongly associated with protection from malaria in a longitudinal study of children. Using statistical modelling, combining three different antigens targeted by complement-fixing antibodies could increase the potential protective effect to over 95%, and we identify antigens that were common in the most protective combinations. Our findings support antibody-complement interactions against merozoite antigens as important anti-malaria immune mechanisms, and identify specific merozoite antigens for further evaluation as vaccine candidates.

Acquired antibodies directed towards antigens expressed on the surface of merozoites and infected erythrocytes play an important role in protective immunity to Plasmodium falciparum malaria. P. falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1), the major parasite component of the infected erythrocyte surface, has been implicated in malaria pathology, parasite sequestration and host immune evasion. However, the extent to which unique PfEMP1 domains interact with host immune response remains largely unknown. In this study, we sought to comprehensively understand the naturally acquired antibody responses targeting different Duffy binding-like (DBL), and Cysteine-rich interdomain region (CIDR) domains in a Ugandan cohort. Consequently, we created a protein library consisting of full-length DBL (n = 163) and CIDR (n = 108) domains derived from 62-var genes based on 3D7 genome. The proteins were expressed by a wheat germ cell-free system; a system that yields plasmodial proteins that are comparatively soluble, intact, biologically active and immunoreactive to human sera. Our findings suggest that all PfEMP1 DBL and CIDR domains, regardless of PfEMP1 group, are targets of naturally acquired immunity. The breadth of the immune response expands with children's age. We concurrently identified 10 DBL and 8 CIDR domains whose antibody responses were associated with reduced risk to symptomatic malaria in the Ugandan children cohort. This study highlights that only a restricted set of specific domains are essential for eliciting naturally acquired protective immunity in malaria. In light of current data, tandem domains in PfEMP1s PF3D7&#95;0700100 and PF3D7&#95;0425800 (DC4) are recommended for extensive evaluation in larger population cohorts to further assess their potential as alternative targets for malaria vaccine development., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: In malaria endemic populations, complex patterns of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum blood-stage infection dynamics may be observed. Genotyping samples from longitudinal cohort studies for merozoite surface protein (msp) variants increases the information available in the data, allowing multiple infecting parasite clones in a single individual to be identified. msp genotyped samples from two longitudinal cohorts in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Thailand were analysed using a statistical model where the times of acquisition and clearance of each clone in every individual were estimated using a process of data augmentation., Results: For the populations analysed, the duration of blood-stage P. falciparum infection was estimated as 36 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 29, 44) days in PNG, and 135 (95% CrI 94, 191) days in Thailand. Experiments on simulated data indicated that it was not possible to accurately estimate the duration of blood-stage P. vivax infections due to the lack of identifiability between a single blood-stage infection and multiple, sequential blood-stage infections caused by relapses. Despite this limitation, the method and data point towards short duration of blood-stage P. vivax infection with a lower bound of 24 days in PNG, and 29 days in Thailand. On an individual level, P. vivax recurrences cannot be definitively classified into re-infections, recrudescences or relapses, but a probabilistic relapse phenotype can be assigned to each P. vivax sample, allowing investigation of the association between epidemiological covariates and the incidence of relapses., Conclusion: The statistical model developed here provides a useful new tool for in-depth analysis of malaria data from longitudinal cohort studies, and future application to data sets with multi-locus genotyping will allow more detailed investigation of infection dynamics.

The key targets of protective antibodies against Plasmodium falciparum remain largely unknown. In this study, we determined immunoreactivity to 1827 recombinant proteins derived from 1565 genes representing ∼30% of the entire P. falciparum genome, for identification of novel malaria vaccine candidates. The recombinant proteins were expressed by wheat germ cell-free system, a platform that can synthesize quality plasmodial proteins that elicit biologically active antibodies in animals. Sera were obtained from indigenous residents of a malaria endemic region in Northern Uganda who were enrolled at the start of a rainy season and prospectively monitored for symptomatic malaria episodes for a year. Immunoreactivity to sera was determined by AlphaScreen; a homogeneous high-throughput system that detects protein interactions. Our analysis revealed antibody responses to 128 proteins that significantly associated with protection from symptomatic malaria. From 128 proteins, 53 were down-selected as the most plausible targets of host protective immune response by virtue of having a predicted signal peptide and/or transmembrane domain(s), or confirmed localization on the parasite surface. The 53 proteins comprised of not only previously characterized vaccine candidates but also uncharacterized proteins. Proteins involved in erythrocyte invasion; RON4, RON2 and CLAG3.1 and pre-erythrocytic proteins; SIAP-2, TRAP and CelTOS, were recommended for prioritization for further evaluation as vaccine candidates. The findings clearly demonstrate that generation of the protein library using the wheat germ cell-free system coupled with high throughput immunoscreening with AlphaScreen offers new options for rational discovery and selection of potential malaria vaccine candidates., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

As malaria is being pushed back on many frontiers and global case numbers are declining, accurate measurement and prediction of transmission becomes increasingly difficult. Low transmission settings are characterised by high levels of spatial heterogeneity, which stands in stark contrast to the widely used assumption of spatially homogeneous transmission used in mathematical transmission models for malaria. In the present study an individual-based mathematical malaria transmission model that incorporates multiple parasite clones, variable human exposure and duration of infection, limited mosquito flight distance and most importantly geographically heterogeneous human and mosquito population densities was used to illustrate the differences between homogeneous and heterogeneous transmission assumptions when aiming to predict surrogate indicators of transmission intensity such as population parasite prevalence or multiplicity of infection (MOI). In traditionally highly malaria endemic regions where most of the population harbours malaria parasites, humans are often infected with multiple parasite clones. However, studies have shown also in areas with low overall parasite prevalence, infection with multiple parasite clones is a common occurrence. Mathematical models assuming homogeneous transmission between humans and mosquitoes cannot explain these observations. Heterogeneity of transmission can arise from many factors including acquired immunity, body size and occupational exposure. In this study, we show that spatial heterogeneity has a profound effect on predictions of MOI and parasite prevalence. We illustrate, that models assuming homogeneous transmission underestimate average MOI in low transmission settings when compared to field data and that spatially heterogeneous models predict stable transmission at much lower overall parasite prevalence. Therefore it is very important that models used to guide malaria surveillance and control strategies in low transmission and elimination settings take into account the spatial features of the specific target area, including human and mosquito vector distribution., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Increasing evidence suggests that antibodies against merozoite proteins involved in Plasmodium falciparum invasion into the red blood cell play an important role in clinical immunity to malaria. Erythrocyte-binding antigen 175 (EBA-175) is the best-characterized P. falciparum invasion ligand, reported to recognize glycophorin A on the surface of erythrocytes. Its protein structure comprises 6 extracellular regions. Whereas region II contains Duffy binding-like domains involved in the binding to glycophorin A, the functional role of regions III-V is less clear., Methods: We developed a novel cytometric bead array for assessment of antigen-specific antibody concentration in plasma to evaluate the efficacy of immune responses to different regions of EBA-175 and associations between antibody levels with protection from symptomatic malaria in a treatment-reinfection cohort study., Results: We found that while antibodies to region II are highly abundant, circulating levels as low as 5-10 µg/mL of antibodies specific for region III or the highly conserved regions IV-V predict strong protection from clinical malaria., Conclusions: These results lend support for the development of conserved regions of EBA-175 as components in a combination of a malaria vaccine., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Serology has become an increasingly important tool for the surveillance of a wide range of infectious diseases. It has been particularly useful to monitor malaria transmission in elimination settings where existing metrics such as parasite prevalence and incidence of clinical cases are less sensitive. Seroconversion rates, based on antibody prevalence to Plasmodium falciparum asexual blood-stage antigens, provide estimates of transmission intensity that correlate with entomological inoculation rates but lack precision in settings where seroprevalence is still high. Here we present a new and widely applicable method, based on cross-sectional data on individual antibody levels. We evaluate its use as a sero-surveillance tool in a Tanzanian setting with declining malaria prevalence. We find that the newly developed mathematical models produce more precise estimates of transmission patterns, are robust in high transmission settings and when sample sizes are small, and provide a powerful tool for serological evaluation of malaria transmission intensity.

Background: The RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine targets the circumsporozoite protein, inducing antibodies associated with the prevention of Plasmodium falciparum infection. We assessed the association between anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres and the magnitude and duration of vaccine efficacy using data from a phase 3 trial done between 2009 and 2014., Methods: Using data from 8922 African children aged 5-17 months and 6537 African infants aged 6-12 weeks at first vaccination, we analysed the determinants of immunogenicity after RTS,S/AS01 vaccination with or without a booster dose. We assessed the association between the incidence of clinical malaria and anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres using a model of anti-circumsporozoite antibody dynamics and the natural acquisition of protective immunity over time., Findings: RTS,S/AS01-induced anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres were greater in children aged 5-17 months than in those aged 6-12 weeks. Pre-vaccination anti-circumsporozoite titres were associated with lower immunogenicity in children aged 6-12 weeks and higher immunogenicity in those aged 5-17 months. The immunogenicity of the booster dose was strongly associated with immunogenicity after primary vaccination. Anti-circumsporozoite titres wane according to a biphasic exponential distribution. In participants aged 5-17 months, the half-life of the short-lived component of the antibody response was 45 days (95% credible interval 42-48) and that of the long-lived component was 591 days (557-632). After primary vaccination 12% (11-13) of the response was estimated to be long-lived, rising to 30% (28-32%) after a booster dose. An anti-circumsporozoite antibody titre of 121 EU/mL (98-153) was estimated to prevent 50% of infections. Waning anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres predict the duration of efficacy against clinical malaria across different age categories and transmission intensities, and efficacy wanes more rapidly at higher transmission intensity., Interpretation: Anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres are a surrogate of protection for the magnitude and duration of RTS,S/AS01 efficacy, with or without a booster dose, providing a valuable surrogate of effectiveness for new RTS,S formulations in the age groups considered., Funding: UK Medical Research Council., (Copyright © 2015 White et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Plasmodium falciparum EBA175 and PfRh2 belong to two main families involved in parasite invasion, and both are potential vaccine candidates. Current knowledge is limited regarding which target antigens and subclasses of antibodies are actually important for protection, and how naturally acquired immunity is achieved., Methods: Repeated blood samples were collected from individuals in Nigeria over a period of almost one year. ELISA was used to analyse subclasses of IgG responses., Results: For both EBA175 (region III-V) and (a fragment of) PfRh2, the dominant antibody responses consisted of IgG1 and IgG3 followed by IgG2, while for PfRh2 there was also a relatively prominent response for IgG4. High levels of IgG1, IgG2 and IgG3 for EBA175 and total IgG for PfRh2 correlated significantly with a lower parasitaemia during the study period. Children with HbAS had higher levels of some subclasses compared to children with HbAA, while in adults the pattern was the opposite. The half-lives of IgG2 and IgG4 against EBA175 were clearly shorter than those for IgG1 and IgG3., Conclusion: EBA175 and PfRh2 are potential targets for protective antibodies since both correlated with lower parasitaemia. The shorter half-lives for IgG2 and IgG4 might explain why these subclasses are often considered less important in protection against malaria. Triggering the right subclass responses could be of critical importance in a successful vaccine. Further studies are needed to evaluate the role of haemoglobin polymorphisms and their malaria protective effects in this process.

Background: Acquired immune responses to malaria have widely been perceived to be short-lived, with previously immune individuals losing immunity when they move from malaria-endemic areas. However long-lived Plasmodium falciparum-specific antibody responses lasting for an individual's lifetime are frequently observed., Methods: We fit mathematical models of the dynamics of antibody titers to P. falciparum antigens from longitudinal cohort studies of African children to estimate the half-lives of circulating immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies and IgG antibody-secreting cells (ASCs)., Results: Comparison of antibody responses in the younger Ghanaian cohort and the older Gambian cohort suggests that young children are less able to generate the long-lived ASCs necessary to maintain the circulating antibodies that may provide protection against reinfection. Antibody responses in African children can be described by a model 15 including both short-lived ASCs (half-life range, 2-10 days), which are responsible for boosting antibody titers following infection, and long-lived ASCs (half-life range, 3-9 years), which are responsible for maintaining sustained humoral responses., Conclusions: The rapid decay of antibodies following exposure to malaria and the maintenance of sustained antibody responses can be explained in terms of populations of short-lived and long-lived ASCs., (© The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Understanding the role of pre-erythrocytic immune responses to Plasmodium falciparum parasites is crucial for understanding the epidemiology of malaria. However, published studies have reported inconsistent results on the association between markers of pre-erythrocytic immunity and protection from malaria., Methods: The design and statistical methods of studies of pre-erythrocytic immunity were reviewed, and factors affecting the likelihood of detecting statistically significant associations were assessed. Treatment re-infection studies were simulated to estimate the effects of study size, transmission intensity, and sampling frequency on the statistical power to detect an association between markers of pre-erythrocytic immunity and protection from infection., Results: Nine of nineteen studies reviewed reported statistically significant associations between markers of pre-erythrocytic immunity and protection from infection. Studies with large numbers of participants in high-transmission settings, followed longitudinally with active detection of infection and with immune responses analysed as continuous variables, were most likely to detect statistically significant associations. Simulation of treatment re-infection studies highlights that many studies are underpowered to detect statistically significant associations, providing an explanation for the finding that only some studies report significant associations between pre-erythrocytic immune responses and protection from infection., Conclusions: The findings of the review and model simulations are consistent with the hypothesis that pre-erythrocytic immune responses prevent P. falciparum infections, but that many studies are underpowered to consistently detect this effect.

Vaccination with the pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine RTS,S induces high levels of antibodies and CD4(+) T cells specific for the circumsporozoite protein (CSP). Using a biologically-motivated mathematical model of sporozoite infection fitted to data from malaria-naive adults vaccinated with RTS,S and subjected to experimental P. falciparum challenge, we characterised the relationship between antibodies, CD4(+) T cell responses and protection from infection. Both anti-CSP antibody titres and CSP-specific CD4(+) T cells were identified as immunological surrogates of protection, with RTS,S induced anti-CSP antibodies estimated to prevent 32% (95% confidence interval (CI) 24%-41%) of infections. The addition of RTS,S-induced CSP-specific CD4(+) T cells was estimated to increase vaccine efficacy against infection to 40% (95% CI, 34%-48%). This protective efficacy is estimated to result from a 96.1% (95% CI, 93.4%-97.8%) reduction in the liver-to-blood parasite inoculum, indicating that in volunteers who developed P. falciparum infection, a small number of parasites (often the progeny of a single surviving sporozoite) are responsible for breakthrough blood-stage infections.

Background: The efficacy of RTS,S/AS01 as a vaccine for malaria is being tested in a phase 3 clinical trial. Early results show significant, albeit partial, protection against clinical malaria and severe malaria. To ascertain variations in vaccine efficacy according to covariates such as transmission intensity, choice of adjuvant, age at vaccination, and bednet use, we did an individual-participant pooled analysis of phase 2 clinical data., Methods: We analysed data from 11 different sites in Africa, including 4453 participants. We measured heterogeneity in vaccine efficacy by estimating the interactions between covariates and vaccination in pooled multivariable Cox regression and Poisson regression analyses. Endpoints for measurement of vaccine efficacy were infection, clinical malaria, severe malaria, and death. We defined transmission intensity levels according to the estimated local parasite prevalence in children aged 2-10 years (PrP₂₋₁₀), ranging from 5% to 80%. Choice of adjuvant was either AS01 or AS02., Findings: Vaccine efficacy against all episodes of clinical malaria varied by transmission intensity (p=0·001). At low transmission (PrP₂₋₁₀ 10%) vaccine efficacy was 60% (95% CI 54 to 67), at moderate transmission (PrP₂₋₁₀ 20%) it was 41% (21 to 57), and at high transmission (PrP₂₋₁₀ 70%) the efficacy was 4% (-10 to 22). Vaccine efficacy also varied by adjuvant choice (p<0·0001)--eg, at low transmission (PrP₂₋₁₀ 10%), efficacy varied from 60% (95% CI 54 to 67) for AS01 to 47% (14 to 75) for AS02. Variations in efficacy by age at vaccination were of borderline significance (p=0·038), and bednet use and sex were not significant covariates. Vaccine efficacy (pooled across adjuvant choice and transmission intensity) varied significantly (p<0·0001) according to time since vaccination, from 36% efficacy (95% CI 24 to 45) at time of vaccination to 0% (-38 to 38) after 3 years., Interpretation: Vaccine efficacy against clinical disease was of limited duration and was not detectable 3 years after vaccination. Furthermore, efficacy fell with increasing transmission intensity. Outcomes after vaccination cannot be gauged accurately on the basis of one pooled efficacy figure. However, predictions of public-health outcomes of vaccination will need to take account of variations in efficacy by transmission intensity and by time since vaccination., Funding: Medical Research Council (UK); Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Vaccine Modelling Initiative; Wellcome Trust., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Antibodies to the pre-erythrocytic antigens, circumsporozoite protein (CSP), thrombospondin-related adhesive protein (TRAP) and liver-stage antigen 1, have been measured in field studies of semi-immune adults and shown to correlate with protection from Plasmodium falciparum infection. A mathematical model is formulated to estimate the probability of sporozoite infection as a function of antibody titres to multiple pre-erythrocytic antigens. The variation in antibody titres from field data was used to estimate the relationship between the probability of P. falciparum infection per infectious mosquito bite and antibody titre. Using this relationship, we predict the effect of vaccinations that boost baseline CSP or TRAP antibody titres. Assuming the estimated relationship applies to vaccine-induced antibody titres, then single-component CSP or TRAP antibody-mediated pre-erythrocytic vaccines are likely to provide partial protection from infection, with vaccine efficacy of approximately 50 per cent depending on the magnitude of the vaccine-induced boost to antibody titres. It is possible that the addition of a TRAP component to a CSP-based vaccine such as RTS,S would provide an increase in infection-blocking efficacy of approximately 25 per cent should the problem of immunological interference between antigens be overcome.

Background: Co-infection of the four major species of human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum (Pf), P. vivax (Pv), P. malariae (Pm), and P. ovale sp. (Po) is regularly observed, but there is limited understanding of between-species interactions. In particular, little is known about the effects of multiple Plasmodium species co-infections on gametocyte production. Methods: We developed molecular assays for detecting asexual and gametocyte stages of Pf, Pv, Pm, and Po. This is the first description of molecular diagnostics for Pm and Po gametocytes. These assays were implemented in a unique epidemiological setting in Papua New Guinea with sympatric transmission of all four Plasmodium species permitting a comprehensive investigation of species interactions. Findings: The observed frequency of Pf-Pv co-infection for asexual parasites (14.7%) was higher than expected from individual prevalence rates (23.8%Pf x 47.4%Pv = 11.3%). The observed frequency of co-infection with Pf and Pv gametocytes (4.6%) was higher than expected from individual prevalence rates (13.1%Pf x 28.2%Pv = 3.7%). The excess risk of co-infection was 1.38 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09, 1.67) for all parasites and 1.37 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.79) for gametocytes. This excess co-infection risk was partially attributable to malaria infections clustering in some villages. Pf-Pv-Pm triple infections were four times more frequent than expected by chance alone, which could not be fully explained by infections clustering in highly exposed individuals. The effect of co-infection on parasite density was analyzed by systematic comparison of all pairwise interactions. This revealed a significant 6.57-fold increase of Pm density when co-infected with Pf. Pm gametocytemia also increased with Pf co-infection. Conclusions: Heterogeneity in exposure to mosquitoes is a key epidemiological driver of Plasmodium co-infection. Among the four co-circulating parasites, Pm benefitted most from co-infection with other species. Beyond this, no general prevailing pattern of suppression or facilitation was identified in pairwise analysis of gametocytemia and parasitemia of the four species. Trial registration: This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, Trial ID: NCT02143934. Author summary: The majority of malaria research focuses on the Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax parasite species, due to their large public health burden. The epidemiology of P. malariae and P. ovale parasites has been comparatively neglected, due to a lack of research tools, most notably diagnostics. We present new molecular diagnostic assays for detecting P. malariae and P. ovale gametocytes, the sexual stage of the malaria parasite transmitted to mosquitoes. These assays were applied to samples collected in Papua New Guinea, a rare region with high transmission of the four major malaria parasite species. Patterns of co-infections were characterized accounting for interactions between pairs and triples of parasites. Heterogeneity in exposure to mosquito bites was identified as a key driver of patterns of co-infection. The effect of co-infection on parasite density was analyzed by systematic comparison of all pairwise interactions. The most significant within-host interaction of parasites was the large increase in P. malariae parasite density due to co-infection with P. falciparum. This finding was replicated for P. malariae gametocytes (but did not attain statistical significance due to low sample numbers) suggesting that co-infection provides a key transmission advantage to P. malariae. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clinical immunity to malaria develops after repeated exposure to Plasmodium falciparum parasites. Broadly reactive antibodies against parasite antigens expressed on the surface of infected erythrocytes (variable surface antigens; VSAs) are candidates for anti-malaria therapeutics and vaccines. Among the VSAs, several RIFIN, STEVOR, and SURFIN family members have been demonstrated to be targets of naturally acquired immunity against malaria. For example, RIFIN family members are important ligands for opsonization of P. falciparum infected erythrocytes with specific immunoglobulins (IgG) acquiring broad protective reactivity. However, the global repertoire of human anti-VSAs IgG, its variation in children, and the key protective targets remain poorly understood. Here, we report wheat germ cell-free system-based production and serological profiling of a comprehensive library of A-RIFINs, B-RIFINs, STEVORs, and SURFINs derived from the P. falciparum 3D7 parasite strain. We observed that >98% of assayed proteins (n = 265) were immunogenic in malaria-exposed individuals in Uganda. The overall breadth of immune responses was significantly correlated with age but not with clinical malaria outcome among the study volunteers. However, children with high levels of antibodies to four RIFINs (PF3D7_0201000, PF3D7_1254500, PF3D7_1040600, PF3D7_1041100), STEVOR (PF3D7_0732000), and SURFIN 1.2 (PF3D7_0113600) had prospectively reduced the risk of developing febrile malaria, suggesting that the 5 antigens are important targets of protective immunity. Further studies on the significance of repeated exposure to malaria infection and maintenance of such high-level antibodies would contribute to a better understanding of susceptibility and naturally acquired immunity to malaria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A licensed malaria vaccine would provide a valuable new tool for malaria control and elimination efforts. Several candidate vaccines targeting different stages of the malaria parasite's lifecycle are currently under development, with one candidate, RTS,S/AS01 for the prevention of Plasmodium falciparum infection, having recently completed Phase III trials. Predicting the public health impact of a candidate malaria vaccine requires using clinical trial data to estimate the vaccine's efficacy profile—the initial efficacy following vaccination and the pattern of waning of efficacy over time. With an estimated vaccine efficacy profile, the effects of vaccination on malaria transmission can be simulated with the aid of mathematical models. Here, we provide an overview of methods for estimating the vaccine efficacy profiles of pre-erythrocytic vaccines and transmission-blocking vaccines from clinical trial data. In the case of RTS,S/AS01, model estimates from Phase II clinical trial data indicate a bi-phasic exponential profile of efficacy against infection, with efficacy waning rapidly in the first 6 months after vaccination followed by a slower rate of waning over the next 4 years. Transmission-blocking vaccines have yet to be tested in large-scale Phase II or Phase III clinical trials so we review ongoing work investigating how a clinical trial might be designed to ensure that vaccine efficacy can be estimated with sufficient statistical power. Finally, we demonstrate how parameters estimated from clinical trials can be used to predict the impact of vaccination campaigns on malaria using a mathematical model of malaria transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Plasmodium falciparum EBA175 and PfRh2 belong to two main families involved in parasite invasion, and both are potential vaccine candidates. Current knowledge is limited regarding which target antigens and subclasses of antibodies are actually important for protection, and how naturally acquired immunity is achieved. Methods: Repeated blood samples were collected from individuals in Nigeria over a period of almost one year. ELISA was used to analyse subclasses of IgG responses. Results: For both EBA175 (region III-V) and (a fragment of) PfRh2, the dominant antibody responses consisted of IgG1 and IgG3 followed by IgG2, while for PfRh2 there was also a relatively prominent response for IgG4. High levels of IgG1, IgG2 and IgG3 for EBA175 and total IgG for PfRh2 correlated significantly with a lower parasitaemia during the study period. Children with HbAS had higher levels of some subclasses compared to children with HbAA, while in adults the pattern was the opposite. The half-lives of IgG2 and IgG4 against EBA175 were clearly shorter than those for IgG1 and IgG3. Conclusion: EBA175 and PfRh2 are potential targets for protective antibodies since both correlated with lower parasitaemia. The shorter half-lives for IgG2 and IgG4 might explain why these subclasses are often considered less important in protection against malaria. Triggering the right subclass responses could be of critical importance in a successful vaccine. Further studies are needed to evaluate the role of haemoglobin polymorphisms and their malaria protective effects in this process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vaccination with the pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine RTS,S induces high levels of antibodies and CD4+ T cells specific for the circumsporozoite protein (CSP). Using a biologically-motivated mathematical model of sporozoite infection fitted to data from malaria-naive adults vaccinated with RTS,S and subjected to experimental P. falciparum challenge, we characterised the relationship between antibodies, CD4+ T cell responses and protection from infection. Both anti-CSP antibody titres and CSP-specific CD4+ T cells were identified as immunological surrogates of protection, with RTS,S induced anti-CSP antibodies estimated to prevent 32% (95% confidence interval (CI) 24%–41%) of infections. The addition of RTS,S-induced CSP-specific CD4+ T cells was estimated to increase vaccine efficacy against infection to 40% (95% CI, 34%–48%). This protective efficacy is estimated to result from a 96.1% (95% CI, 93.4%–97.8%) reduction in the liver-to-blood parasite inoculum, indicating that in volunteers who developed P. falciparum infection, a small number of parasites (often the progeny of a single surviving sporozoite) are responsible for breakthrough blood-stage infections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plasmodium falciparum infections present novel challenges for vaccine development, including parasite replication dynamics not previously encountered for viral pathogens, and enormous diversity in target antigens. These challenges are illustrated by using a mathematical model to describe the association between the proportion of pre-erythrocytic or blood-stage parasites eliminated by vaccine-induced immune responses and the proportion of infections prevented. It is hypothesized that due to the requirement for all sporozoites to be eliminated to prevent infection, combining infection-blocking vaccines that confer protection through different biological mechanisms could lead to synergistic combinations of efficacy. Vaccines targeting blood-stage parasites may also combine synergistically if they combine to reduce the parasite multiplication rate to below the threshold of 1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Following the scale-up of intervention efforts, malaria burden has decreased dramatically in Solomon Islands (SI). Submicroscopic and asymptomatic Plasmodium vivax infections are now the major challenge for malaria elimination in this country. Since children have higher risk of contracting malaria, this study investigated the dynamics of Plasmodium spp. infections among children including the associated risk factors of residual P. vivax burden. Methods: An observational cohort study was conducted among 860 children aged 0.5–12 years in Ngella (Central Islands Province, SI). Children were monitored by active and passive surveillances for Plasmodium spp. infections and illness. Parasites were detected by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) and genotyped. Comprehensive statistical analyses of P. vivax infection prevalence, molecular force of blood stage infection (molFOB) and infection density were conducted. Results: Plasmodium vivax infections were common (overall prevalence: 11.9%), whereas Plasmodium falciparum infections were rare (0.3%) but persistent. Although children acquire an average of 1.1 genetically distinct P. vivax blood-stage infections per year, there was significant geographic heterogeneity in the risks of P. vivax infections across Ngella (prevalence: 1.2–47.4%, p < 0.01; molFOB: 0.05–4.6/year, p < 0.01). Malaria incidence was low (IR: 0.05 episodes/year-at-risk). Age and measures of high exposure were the key risk factors for P. vivax infections and disease. Malaria incidence and infection density decreased with age, indicating significant acquisition of immunity. G6PD deficient children (10.8%) that did not receive primaquine treatment had a significantly higher prevalence (aOR: 1.77, p = 0.01) and increased risk of acquiring new bloodstage infections (molFOB aIRR: 1.51, p = 0.03), underscoring the importance of anti-relapse treatment. Conclusion: Residual malaria transmission in Ngella exhibits strong heterogeneity and is characterized by a high proportion of submicroscopic and asymptomatic P. vivax infections, alongside sporadic P. falciparum infections. Implementing an appropriate primaquine treatment policy to prevent P. vivax relapses and specific targeting of control interventions to high risk areas will be required to accelerate ongoing control and elimination activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In malaria endemic populations, complex patterns of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum blood-stage infection dynamics may be observed. Genotyping samples from longitudinal cohort studies for merozoite surface protein (msp) variants increases the information available in the data, allowing multiple infecting parasite clones in a single individual to be identified. msp genotyped samples from two longitudinal cohorts in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Thailand were analysed using a statistical model where the times of acquisition and clearance of each clone in every individual were estimated using a process of data augmentation. Results: For the populations analysed, the duration of blood-stage P. falciparum infection was estimated as 36 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 29, 44) days in PNG, and 135 (95% CrI 94, 191) days in Thailand. Experiments on simulated data indicated that it was not possible to accurately estimate the duration of blood-stage P. vivax infections due to the lack of identifiability between a single blood-stage infection and multiple, sequential blood-stage infections caused by relapses. Despite this limitation, the method and data point towards short duration of blood-stage P. vivax infection with a lower bound of 24 days in PNG, and 29 days in Thailand. On an individual level, P. vivax recurrences cannot be definitively classified into re-infections, recrudescences or relapses, but a probabilistic relapse phenotype can be assigned to each P. vivax sample, allowing investigation of the association between epidemiological covariates and the incidence of relapses. Conclusion: The statistical model developed here provides a useful new tool for in-depth analysis of malaria data from longitudinal cohort studies, and future application to data sets with multi-locus genotyping will allow more detailed investigation of infection dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Models capturing key malaria life-cycle stages can help us evaluate vaccine candidates. • Model fitting revealed antibody avidity to be an important determinant of RTS,S vaccine efficacy. • High avidity and titre were associated with increased levels of vaccine efficacy. • Did not identify any thresholds of protection for either immune marker. Anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres have been established as an essential indicator for evaluating the immunogenicity and protective capacity of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine. However, a new delayed-fractional dose regime of the vaccine was recently shown to increase vaccine efficacy, from 62.5% (95% CI 29.4–80.1%) under the original dosing schedule to 86.7% (95% CI, 66.8–94.6%) without a corresponding increase in antibody titres. Here we reanalyse the antibody data from this challenge trial to determine whether IgG avidity may help to explain efficacy better than IgG titre alone by adapting a within-host mathematical model of sporozoite inoculation. We demonstrate that a model incorporating titre and avidity provides a substantially better fit to the data than titre alone. These results also suggest that in individuals with a high antibody titre response that also show high avidity (both metrics in the top tercile of observed values) delayed-fractional vaccination provided near perfect protection upon first challenge (98.2% [95% Credible Interval 91.6–99.7%]). This finding suggests that the quality of the vaccine induced antibody response is likely to be an important determinant in the development of highly efficacious pre-erythrocytic vaccines against malaria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The phase 3 trial of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine candidate showed modest efficacy of the vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria, but was not powered to assess mortality endpoints. Impact projections and cost-effectiveness estimates for longer timeframes than the trial follow-up and across a range of settings are needed to inform policy recommendations. We aimed to assess the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of routine use of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in African settings.Methods: We compared four malaria transmission models and their predictions to assess vaccine cost-effectiveness and impact. We used trial data for follow-up of 32 months or longer to parameterise vaccine protection in the group aged 5-17 months. Estimates of cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted were calculated over a 15 year time horizon for a range of levels of Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence in 2-10 year olds (PfPR2-10; range 3-65%). We considered two vaccine schedules: three doses at ages 6, 7·5, and 9 months (three-dose schedule, 90% coverage) and including a fourth dose at age 27 months (four-dose schedule, 72% coverage). We estimated cost-effectiveness in the presence of existing malaria interventions for vaccine prices of US$2-10 per dose.Findings: In regions with a PfPR2-10 of 10-65%, RTS,S/AS01 is predicted to avert a median of 93,940 (range 20,490-126,540) clinical cases and 394 (127-708) deaths for the three-dose schedule, or 116,480 (31,450-160,410) clinical cases and 484 (189-859) deaths for the four-dose schedule, per 100,000 fully vaccinated children. A positive impact is also predicted at a PfPR2-10 of 5-10%, but there is little impact at a prevalence of lower than 3%. At $5 per dose and a PfPR2-10 of 10-65%, we estimated a median incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared with current interventions of $30 (range 18-211) per clinical case averted and $80 (44-279) per DALY averted for the three-dose schedule, and of $25 (16-222) and $87 (48-244), respectively, for the four-dose schedule. Higher ICERs were estimated at low PfPR2-10 levels.Interpretation: We predict a significant public health impact and high cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine across a wide range of settings. Decisions about implementation will need to consider levels of malaria burden, the cost-effectiveness and coverage of other malaria interventions, health priorities, financing, and the capacity of the health system to deliver the vaccine.Funding: PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Global Good Fund; Medical Research Council; UK Department for International Development; GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance; WHO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]