1. Predicting mortality from HIV-associated Pneumocystis pneumonia at illness presentation: an observational cohort study.
- Author
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Fei MW, Kim EJ, Sant CA, Jarlsberg LG, Davis JL, Swartzman A, and Huang L
- Subjects
- AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections metabolism, AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections therapy, Adult, Age Factors, Bilirubin analysis, Epidemiologic Methods, Female, Hospitalization, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Pneumonia, Pneumocystis metabolism, Pneumonia, Pneumocystis therapy, Prognosis, Pulmonary Gas Exchange, San Francisco epidemiology, Serum Albumin analysis, Substance Abuse, Intravenous complications, Treatment Outcome, AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections mortality, Pneumonia, Pneumocystis mortality
- Abstract
Background: Although the use of antiretroviral therapy has led to dramatic declines in AIDS-associated mortality, Pneumocystis pneumonia (PCP) remains a leading cause of death in HIV-infected patients., Objectives: To measure mortality, identify predictors of mortality at time of illness presentation and derive a PCP mortality prediction rule that stratifies patients by risk for mortality., Methods: An observational cohort study with case note review of all HIV-infected persons with a laboratory diagnosis of PCP at San Francisco General Hospital from 1997 to 2006., Results: 451 patients were diagnosed with PCP on 524 occasions. In-hospital mortality was 10.3%. Multivariate analysis identified five significant predictors of mortality: age (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) per 10-year increase, 1.69; 95% CI 1.08 to 2.65; p = 0.02); recent injection drug use (AOR 2.86; 95% CI 1.28 to 6.42; p = 0.01); total bilirubin >0.6 mg/dl (AOR 2.59; 95% CI 1.19 to 5.62; p = 0.02); serum albumin <3 g/dl (AOR 3.63; 95% CI 1.72-7.66; p = 0.001); and alveolar-arterial oxygen gradient >or=50 mm Hg (AOR 3.02; 95% CI 1.41 to 6.47; p = 0.004). Using these five predictors, a six-point PCP mortality prediction rule was derived that stratifies patients according to increasing risk of mortality: score 0-1, 4%; score 2-3, 12%; score 4-5, 48%., Conclusions: The PCP mortality prediction rule stratifies patients by mortality risk at the time of illness presentation and should be validated as a clinical tool.
- Published
- 2009
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