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Elderly patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are more likely to develop severe or critical pneumonia, with a high fatality rate. To date, there is no model to predict the severity of COVID-19 in elderly patients. In this study, patients who maintained a non-severe condition and patients who progressed to severe or critical COVID-19 during hospitalization were assigned to the non-severe and severe groups, respectively. Based on the admission data of these two groups in the training cohort, albumin (odds ratio [OR] = 0.871, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.809 - 0.937, P < 0.001), d-dimer (OR = 1.289, 95% CI: 1.042 - 1.594, P = 0.019) and onset to hospitalization time (OR = 0.935, 95% CI: 0.895 - 0.977, P = 0.003) were identified as significant predictors for the severity of COVID-19 in elderly patients. By combining these predictors, an effective risk nomogram was established for accurate individualized assessment of the severity of COVID-19 in elderly patients. The concordance index of the nomogram was 0.800 in the training cohort and 0.774 in the validation cohort. The calibration curve demonstrated excellent consistency between the prediction of our nomogram and the observed curve. Decision curve analysis further showed that our nomogram conferred significantly high clinical net benefit. Collectively, our nomogram will facilitate early appropriate supportive care and better use of medical resources and finally reduce the poor outcomes of elderly COVID-19 patients.

Objectives: Studies reported associations of inflammatory markers with the severity of COVID-19, but conclusions were inconsistent. We aimed to provide an overview of the association of inflammatory markers with the severity of COVID-19., Methods: We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Wanfang and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) database until March 20, 2020. Weighted mean difference (WMD) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using random or fixed-effects models., Results: A total of 16 studies comprising 3962 patients with COVID-19 were included in our analysis. Random-effect results demonstrated that patients with COVID-19 in the nonsevere group had lower levels for CRP (WMD = -41.78 mg/l, 95% CI = [-52.43, -31.13], P < 0.001), PCT (WMD = -0.13 ng/ml, 95% CI = [-0.20, -0.05], P < 0.001), IL-6 (WMD = -21.32 ng/l, 95% CI = [-28.34, -14.31], P < 0.001), ESR (WMD = -8 mm/h, 95% CI = [-14, -2], P = 0.005), SAA (WMD = -43.35 μg/ml, 95% CI = [-80.85, -5.85], P = 0.020) and serum ferritin (WMD = -398.80 mg/l, 95% CI = [-625.89, -171.71], P < 0.001), compared with those in the severe group. Moreover, survivors had a lower level of IL-6 than non-survivors (WMD = -4.80 ng/ml, 95% CI = [-5.87, -3.73], P < 0.001). These results were consistent through sensitivity analysis and publication bias assessment., Conclusions: The meta-analysis highlights the association of inflammatory markers with the severity of COVID-19. Measurement of inflammatory markers might assist clinicians to monitor and evaluate the severity and prognosis of COVID-19., (Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: The ongoing worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‑19) has posed a huge threat to global public health. However, the issue as to whether routine blood tests could be used to monitor and predict the severity and prognosis of COVID‑19 has not been comprehensively investigated so far., Objectives: This study aimed to provide an overview of the association of markers in the routine blood test with the severity of COVID‑19., Methods: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Wanfang, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) databases were searched to identify studies reporting data on markers in the routine blood test and the severity of COVID‑19, published until March 20, 2020. The STATA software was used for meta‑analysis., Results: A total of 15 studies with 3090 patients with COVID‑19 were included in this analysis. Patients in the nonsevere group, compared with those in the severe group, had lower counts of white blood cells (weighted mean difference [WMD], -0.85 [×109/l]; 95% CI, -1.54 to -0.16; P = 0.02) and neutrophils (WMD, -1.57 [×109/l]; 95% CI, -2.6 to -0.54; P = 0.003), greater counts of lymphocytes (WMD, 0.29 [×109/l]; 95% CI, 0.22-0.36; P <0.001) and platelets (WMD, 19.05 [×109/l]; 95% CI, 3.04-35.06; P = 0.02), and a lower neutrophil‑to‑lymphocyte (NLR) ratio (WMD, -2.48; 95% CI, -3.81 to -1.15; P <0.001). There was no difference in the monocyte count (WMD, 0.01 [×109/l]; 95% CI, -0.01 to 0.03; P = 0.029) between these 2 groups. Sensitivity analysis and meta‑analysis based on standard mean difference did not change the conclusions regarding neutrophils, lymphocytes, and NLR, but yielded inconsistent results for white blood cells and platelets., Conclusions: Severe patients had more neutrophils, higher NLR level, and fewer lymphocytes than non-severe patients with COVID-19. Measurement of these markers might assist clinicians to monitor and predict the severity and prognosis of COVID-19.