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Habitat loss and isolation caused by landscape fragmentation represent a growing threat to global biodiversity. Existing theory suggests that the process will lead to a decline in metapopulation viability. However, since most metapopulation models are restricted to simple networks of discrete habitat patches, the effects of real landscape fragmentation, particularly in stochastic environments, are not well understood. To close this major gap in ecological theory, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model applicable to realistic landscape structures, bridging metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology. This model reproduced classical metapopulation dynamics under conventional model assumptions, but on fragmented landscapes, it uncovered general dynamics that are in stark contradiction to the prevailing views in the ecological and conservation literature. Notably, fragmentation can give rise to a series of dualities: a) positive and negative responses to environmental noise, b) relative slowdown and acceleration in density decline, and c) synchronization and desynchronization of local population dynamics. Furthermore, counter to common intuition, species that interact locally ("residents") were often more resilient to fragmentation than long-ranging "migrants." This set of findings signals a need to fundamentally reconsider our approach to ecosystem management in a noisy and fragmented world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As anthropogenic impacts on the natural world escalate, there is increasing interest in the role of humans in dispersing seeds. But the consequences of this Human‐Mediated Dispersal (HMD) on plant spatial dynamics are little studied. In this paper, we ask how secondary dispersal by HMD affects the dynamics of a natural plant metapopulation. In addition to dispersal between patches, we suggest within‐patch processes can be critical. To address this, we assess how variation in local population dynamics, caused by small‐scale disturbances, affects metapopulation size. We created an empirically based model with stochastic population dynamics and dispersal among patches, which represented a real‐world, cliff‐top metapopulation of wild cabbage Brassica oleracea. We collected demographic data from multiple populations by tagging plants over eight years. We assessed seed survival, and establishment and survival of seedlings in intact vegetation vs. small disturbances. We modeled primary dispersal by wind using field data and used experimental data on secondary HMD by hikers. We monitored occupancy patterns over a 14‐yr period in the real metapopulation. Disturbance had large effects on local population growth rates, by increasing seedling establishment and survival. This meant that the modeled metapopulation grew in size only when the area disturbed in each patch was above 35%. In these growing metapopulations, although only 0.2% of seeds underwent HMD, this greatly enhanced metapopulation growth rates. Similarly, HMD allowed more colonizations in declining metapopulations under low disturbance, and this slowed the rate of decline. The real metapopulation showed patterns of varying patch occupancy over the survey years, which were related to habitat quality, but also positively to human activity along the cliffs, hinting at beneficial effects of humans. These findings illustrate that realistic changes to dispersal or demography, specifically by humans, can have fundamental effects on the viability of a species at the landscape scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dispersal is crucial for both individual fitness and spatiotemporal population dynamics. In sexual organisms, females and males have different reproductive strategies and therefore have different reproductive demands (i.e., reproductive resources and mating partners, respectively), which leads to differences in dispersal decision making between sexes. Although many studies have described sexual differences in dispersal behavior, little is known about the consequences for spatiotemporal population dynamics because metapopulation theory has considered only either nonrandom dispersal in asexual systems or random dispersal in sexual systems. To fill the knowledge gap, we propose a modeling framework that incorporates nonrandom and sex‐specific dispersal into metapopulation theory. It allows us to ask how female‐biased (e.g., in mammals) or male‐biased (e.g., in birds) dispersal can influence persistence of sexual organisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Amphibian conservation efforts commonly assume populations are tied to waterbodies that collectively function as a metapopulation. This assumption is rarely evaluated, and there is a need to understand the degree of connectivity among patches to appropriately define, manage, and conserve biological populations. Objectives: Our objectives were to quantify local persistence, colonization, and recruitment (metademographic rates) in relation to habitat attributes, evaluate the influence of the spatial arrangement of patches on landscape-scale population dynamics, and estimate the scale at which metapopulation dynamics are occurring for Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa). Methods: We collected R. pretiosa detection/non-detection data and habitat information from 93 sites spread throughout the species' extant range in Oregon, USA, 2010–2018. We developed a spatial multistate dynamic occupancy model to analyze these data. Results: The proportion of sites occupied by R. pretiosa was relatively stable despite regular turnover in site occupancy. Connectivity was greatest when the distance between sites was within 4.49–7.70 km, and the results suggested that populations within 1 km are at the appropriate spatial scale for effective population management. Rana pretiosa metademographic rates were strongly tied to water availability, vegetation characteristics, and beaver dams. Conclusions: Our analysis provides critical information to identify the appropriate spatial scale for effective population management, estimates the distance at which populations are connected, and quantifies the effects of hypothesized threats to species at a landscape scale. We believe this model will prove to be useful to inform conservation and management strategies for multiple species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population connectivity is driven by individual dispersal potential and modulated by natal philopatry. In seabirds, high vagility facilitates dispersal yet philopatry is also common, with foraging area overlap often correlated with population connectivity. We assess the interplay between these processes by studying past and current connectivity and foraging niche overlap among southern rockhopper penguin colonies of the coast of southern South America using genomic and stable isotope analyses. We found two distinct genetic clusters and detected low admixture between northern and southern colonies. Stable isotope analysis indicated niche variability between colonies, with Malvinas/Falklands colonies encompassing the species entire isotopic foraging niche, while the remaining colonies had smaller, nonoverlapping niches. A recently founded colony in continental Patagonia differed in isotopic niche width and position with Malvinas/Falklands colonies, its genetically identified founder population, suggesting the exploitation of novel foraging areas and/or prey items. Additionally, dispersing individuals found dead across the Patagonian shore in an unusual mortality event were also assigned to the northern cluster, suggesting northern individuals reach southern localities, but do not breed in these colonies. Facilitated by variability in foraging strategies, and especially during unfavorable conditions, the number of dispersing individuals may increase and enhance the probability of founding new colonies. Metapopulation demographic dynamics in seabirds should account for interannual variability in dispersal behavior and pay special attention to extreme climatic events, classically related to negative effects on population trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding spatiotemporal population trends and their drivers is a key aim in population ecology. We further need to be able to predict how the dynamics and sizes of populations are affected in the long term by changing landscapes and climate. However, predictions of future population trends are sensitive to a range of modeling assumptions. Deadwood‐dependent fungi are an excellent system for testing the performance of different predictive models of sessile species as these species have different rarity and spatial population dynamics, the populations are structured at different spatial scales, and they utilize distinct substrates. We tested how the projected large‐scale occupancies of species with differing landscape‐scale occupancies are affected over the coming century by different modeling assumptions. We compared projections based on occupancy models against colonization–extinction models, conducting the modeling at alternative spatial scales and using fine‐ or coarse‐resolution deadwood data. We also tested effects of key explanatory variables on species occurrence and colonization–extinction dynamics. The hierarchical Bayesian models applied were fitted to an extensive repeated survey of deadwood and fungi at 174 patches. We projected higher occurrence probabilities and more positive trends using the occupancy models compared to the colonization–extinction models, with greater difference for the species with lower occupancy, colonization rate, and colonization:extinction ratio than for the species with higher estimates of these statistics. The magnitude of future increase in occupancy depended strongly on the spatial modeling scale and resource resolution. We encourage using colonization–extinction models over occupancy models, modeling the process at the finest resource‐unit resolution that is utilizable by the species, and conducting projections for the same spatial scale and resource resolution at which the model fitting is conducted. Further, the models applied should include key variables driving the metapopulation dynamics, such as the availability of suitable resource units, habitat quality, and spatial connectivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species distribution models are the tool of choice for large‐scale population monitoring, environmental association studies and predictions of range shifts under future environmental conditions. Available data and familiarity of the tools rather than the underlying population dynamics often dictate the choice of specific method – especially for the case of presence–absence data. Yet, for predictive purposes, the relationship between occupancy and abundance embodied in the models should reflect the actual population dynamics of the modelled species. To understand the relationship of occupancy and abundance in a heterogeneous landscape at the scale of local populations, we built a spatio‐temporal regression model of populations of the Glanville fritillary butterfly Melitaea cinxia in a Baltic Sea archipelago. Our data comprised nineteen years of habitat surveys and snapshot data of land use in the region. We used variance partitioning to quantify relative contributions of land use, habitat quality and metapopulation covariates. The model revealed a consistent and positive, but noisy relationship between average occupancy and mean abundance in local populations. Patterns of abundance were highly variable across years, with large uncorrelated random variation and strong local population stochasticity. In contrast, the spatio‐temporal random effect, habitat quality, population connectivity and patch size explained variation in occupancy, vindicating metapopulation theory as the basis for modelling occupancy patterns in fragmented landscapes. Previous abundance was an important predictor in the occupancy model, which points to a spillover of abundance into occupancy dynamics. While occupancy models can successfully model large‐scale population structure and average occupancy, extinction probability estimates for local populations derived from occupancy‐only models are overconfident, as extinction risk is dependent on actual, not average, abundance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We prove a general theorem for nonlinear matrix models of the type used in structured population dynamics that describes the bifurcation that occurs when the extinction equilibrium destabilizes as a model parameter is varied. The existence of a bifurcating continuum of positive equilibria is established, and their local stability is related to the direction of bifurcation. Our theorem generalizes existing theorems found in the literature in two ways. First, it allows for a general appearance of the bifurcation parameter (existing theorems require the parameter to appear linearly). This significantly widens the applicability of the theorem to population models. Second, our theorem describes circumstances in which a backward bifurcation can produce stable positive equilibria (existing theorems allow for stability only when the bifurcation is forward). The signs of two diagnostic quantities determine the stability of the bifurcating equilibrium and the direction of bifurcation. We give examples that illustrate these features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extinction debt refers to delayed species extinctions expected as a consequence of ecosystem perturbation. Quantifying such extinctions and investigating long‐term consequences of perturbations has proven challenging, because perturbations are not isolated and occur across various spatial and temporal scales, from local habitat losses to global warming. Additionally, the relative importance of eco‐evolutionary processes varies across scales, because levels of ecological organization, i.e. individuals, (meta)populations and (meta)communities, respond hierarchically to perturbations. To summarize our current knowledge of the scales and mechanisms influencing extinction debts, we reviewed recent empirical, theoretical and methodological studies addressing either the spatio–temporal scales of extinction debts or the eco‐evolutionary mechanisms delaying extinctions. Extinction debts were detected across a range of ecosystems and taxonomic groups, with estimates ranging from 9 to 90% of current species richness. The duration over which debts have been sustained varies from 5 to 570 yr, and projections of the total period required to settle a debt can extend to 1000 yr. Reported causes of delayed extinctions are 1) life‐history traits that prolong individual survival, and 2) population and metapopulation dynamics that maintain populations under deteriorated conditions. Other potential factors that may extend survival time such as microevolutionary dynamics, or delayed extinctions of interaction partners, have rarely been analyzed. Therefore, we propose a roadmap for future research with three key avenues: 1) the microevolutionary dynamics of extinction processes, 2) the disjunctive loss of interacting species and 3) the impact of multiple regimes of perturbation on the payment of debts. For their ability to integrate processes occurring at different levels of ecological organization, we highlight mechanistic simulation models as tools to address these knowledge gaps and to deepen our understanding of extinction dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evolutionary ecology studies have increasingly focused on the impact of intraspecific variability on population processes. However, the role such variation plays in the dynamics of spatially structured populations and how it interacts with environmental changes remains unclear. Here we experimentally quantify the relative importance of intraspecific variability in dispersal-related traits and spatiotemporal variability of environmental conditions for the dynamics of two-patch metapopulations using clonal genotypes of a ciliate in connected microcosms. We demonstrate that in our simple two-patch microcosms, differences among genotypes are at least as important as spatiotemporal variability of resources for metapopulation dynamics. Furthermore, we show that an important proportion of this effect results from variability of dispersal syndromes. These syndromes can therefore be as important for metapopulation dynamics as spatiotemporal variability of environmental conditions. This study demonstrates that intraspecific variability in dispersal syndromes can be key in the functioning of metapopulations facing environmental changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seed bank, seed dispersal and historical disturbance are critical factors affecting plant population persistence. However, because of difficulties collecting data on these factors they are often ignored.We evaluated the roles of seed bank, seed dispersal and historical disturbance on metapopulation persistence of Hypericum cumulicola, a Florida endemic. We took advantage of long‐term demographic data of multiple populations (22 years; ~11 K individuals; 15 populations) and a wealth of information on burn history (1962–present), and habitat attributes (patch specific location, elevation, area and aggregation) of a system of 92 patches of Florida rosemary scrub. We used previously developed integral projection models to assess the relative ability of simulations with different levels of seed dormancy for recently produced and older seeds and different dispersal kernels (including no dispersal) to predict regional observed occupancy and plant abundance in patches in 2016–2018. We compared a simulation with this model using historical burn history to 500 model simulations with the same average fire regime (using a Weibull distribution to determine the probability of ignition) but with random ignition years.The most likely model had limited dispersal (mean = 0.5 m) and the highest dormancy (field estimates × 1.2 %) and its predictions were associated with observed occurrences (67% correct) and densities (20% of variance explained). Historical burn synchrony among neighbouring patches (skewness in the number of patches burned by year = 1.79) probably explains the higher densities predicted by the simulation with the historical fire regime compared with predicted abundances after simulations using random ignition years (skewness = 0.20 + SE = 0.01).Synthesis. Our findings demonstrate the pivotal role of seed dormancy, dispersal and fire history on population dynamics, distribution and abundance. Because of the prevalence of metapopulation dynamics, we should be aware of the significance of changes in the availability and configuration of suitable habitat associated with human or non‐human landscape changes. Decisions on prescribed fires (or other disturbances) will benefit from our knowledge of consequences of fire frequency, but also of location of ignition and the probability of fire spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some extinctions have obvious drivers (e.g. over‐harvesting), while others can be less obvious and arise from multiple interacting factors. The extinction of the New Zealand grayling (Prototroctes oxyrhynchus) has been blamed on over‐fishing and predation by introduced trout, but these explanations fail to account for the species disappearance from isolated, uninvaded rivers. We investigated if source–sink dynamics, facilitated by P. oxyrhynchus's amphidromous dispersal habit, could account for the species' rapid extinction.We created a database of P. oxyrhynchus sightings by surveying newspapers dating back to 1839, along with a review of traditional scientific literature. We used this database to update P. oxyrhynchus's known distribution map and inform sighting models to predict P. oxyrhynchus's extinction date. Finally, we implemented a meta‐population model to explore how source–sink dynamics could interact with off‐take (over‐fishing or predation) to drive extinction.Prototroctes oxyrhynchus was found across New Zealand, except the north of the North Island. Based on sightings methods, the earliest predicted extinction date was 1924, although the species may have persisted until 1972, later than previous estimates have suggested. In the absence of source–sink dynamics, relatively high levels of off‐take were sustainable (up to 30% per generation). When the species was modelled as a panmictic meta‐population including 5% sink habitats, the sustainable off‐take rate was reduced to as low as 5% per generation.Prototroctes oxyrhynchus was a widespread, abundant species that underwent rapid declines and ultimately went extinct. Previous attempts to explain this extinction have failed to account for the species extinction from isolated, pristine rivers. Our modelling shows that treating the species as a panmictic metapopulation and including source–sink dynamics rapidly increases the probability of extinction. We suggest that source–sink dynamics may be an important aspect of the population dynamics of amphidromous species and should be considered when managing taxa with similar dispersal habits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Darwin's finches represent a dynamic radiation of birds within the Galápagos Archipelago. Unlike classic island radiations dominated by island endemics and intuitive 'conveyer belt' colonization with little subsequent dispersal, species of Darwin's finches have populations distributed across many islands and each island contains complex metacommunities of closely related birds. Understanding the role of metacommunity and structured population dynamics in speciation within this heterogeneous island system would provide insights into the roles of fragmentation and dispersal in evolution. In this study, a large multi‐species dataset and a comparative ground finch dataset (two co‐distributed lineages) were used to show how landscape features influence patterns of gene flow across the archipelago. Factors expected to regulate migration including distance and movement from large, central islands to small, peripheral islands were rejected in the multi‐species dataset. Instead, the harsh northeast islands contributed individuals to the larger central islands. Successful immigration relies on three factors: arriving, surviving and reproducing, thus the dispersal towards the central islands may be either be due to more migrants orienting towards these land masses due to their large size and high elevation, or may reflect a higher likelihood of survival and successful reproduction due to the larger diversity of habitats and more environmentally stable ecosystems that these islands possess. Further, the overall directionality of migration was south‐southwest against the dominant winds and currents. In comparing dispersal between the common cactus finch and medium ground finch, both species had similar migration rates but the cactus finch had approximately half the numbers of migrants due to lower effective populations sizes. Significant population structure in the cactus finch indicates potential for further speciation, while the medium ground finch maintains cohesive gene flow across islands. These patterns shed light on the macroevolutionary patterns that drive diversification and speciation within a radiation of highly‐volant taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Lattice-gas model is applied to prey-predator metapopulation system. • We consider the limiting space of patches, and introduce swapping migration. • To know population dynamics, a reaction-migration equation is presented. • Dynamics and extinction points are largely affected by the patch capacities. Many species live in spatially separated patches, and individuals can migrate between patches through paths. In real ecosystems, the capacities of patches are finite. If a patch is already occupied by the individuals of some species, then the migration into the patch is impossible. In the present paper, we deal with prey-predator system composed of two patches. Each patch contains a limited number of cells, where the cell is either empty or occupied by an individual of prey or predator. We introduce "swapping migration" defined by the exchange between occupied and empty cells. An individual can migrate, only when there are empty cells in the destination patch. Reaction-migration equations in prey-predator system are presented, where the migration term forms nonlinear function of densities. We numerically solve equilibrium densities, and find that the population dynamics are largely affected by nonlinear migration. Not only extinction points but also the responses to the environmental changes crucially depend on the patch capacities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the most important challenges in conservation biology is to predict the viability of populations of vulnerable and threatened species. This requires that the demographic stochasticity strongly affecting the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of especially small populations is correctly estimated and modelled. Here, we summarize theoretical evidence showing that the demographic variance in population dynamics is a key parameter determining the probability of extinction and also is directly linked to the magnitude of the genetic drift in the population. The demographic variance is dependent on the mating system, being larger in a polygynous than in monogamous populations. Understanding factors affecting intersexual differences in mating success is therefore essential in explaining variation in the demographic variance. We hypothesize that the strength of sexual selection, for example, quantified by the Bateman gradient, may be a useful predictor of the magnitude of the demographic stochasticity and hence the genetic drift in the population. We provide results from a field study of moose that support this claim. Thus, including central principles from behavioural ecology may increase the reliability of population viability analyses through an improvement of our understanding of factors affecting stochastic influences on population dynamics and evolutionary processes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling the dynamics of small, interconnected populations, or metapopulations, can help pinpoint habitat patches that are critical for population persistence in patchy habitats. For conservation purposes, these patches are typically earmarked for protection, but for invasive species management, these patches could be targeted to hasten the populations' demise. Here, we show how metapopulation modelling, coupled with an understanding of size-dependent dispersal behaviour, can be used to help optimize the distribution of limited resources for culling specific populations of invasive Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans) in the western Atlantic. Through simulation using fitted model parameters, we derive three insights that can inform management. First, culling lionfish from target patches reduces the probability of lionfish occupancy at surrounding patches. Second, this effect depends on patch size and connectivity, but is strongest at the local scale and decays with distance. Finally, size-dependent dispersal in lionfish means that size-selective culling can change both a population's size distribution and dispersal potential, with cascading effects on network connectivity, population dynamics and management outcomes. By explicitly considering seascape structure and movement behaviour when allocating effort to the management of invasive species, managers can optimize resource use to improve management outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Metapopulation persistence depends on connectivity between habitat patches. While emphasis has been placed on the spatial dynamics of connectivity, much less has been placed on its short‐term temporal dynamics. In many terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, however, transient (short‐term) changes in connectivity occur as habitat patches are connected and disconnected due, for example, to climatic or hydrological variability. We evaluated the implications of transient connectivity using a network‐based metapopulation model and a series of scenarios representing temporal changes in connectivity. The transient loss of connectivity can influence metapopulation persistence, and more strongly autocorrelated temporal dynamics affect metapopulation persistence more severely. Given that many ecosystems experience short‐term and temporary loss of habitat connectivity, it is important that these dynamics are adequately represented in metapopulation models; failing to do so may yield overly optimistic‐estimates of metapopulation persistence in fragmented landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species conservation and fisheries management require approaches that relate environmental conditions to population-level dynamics, especially because environmental conditions shift due to climate change. We combined an individual-level physiological model and a conceptually simple matrix population model to develop a novel tool that relates environmental change to population dynamics, and used this tool to analyze effects of environmental changes and early-life stochasticity on Pacific bluefin tuna (PBT) population growth. We found that (i) currently, PBT population experiences a positive growth rate, (ii) somewhat surprisingly, stochasticity in early life survival increases this growth rate, (iii) sexual maturation age strongly depends on food and temperature, (iv) current fishing pressure, though high, is tolerable as long as the environment is such that PBT mature in less than 9 years of age (maturation age of up to 10 is possible in some environments), (v) PBT population growth rate is much more susceptible to changes in juvenile survival than changes in total reproductive output or adult survival. These results suggest that, to be effective, fishing regulations need to (i) focus on smaller tuna (i.e., juveniles and young adults), and (ii) mitigate adverse effects of climate change by taking into the account how future environments may affect the population growth. • We developed a novel tool that relates environmental change to population dynamics. • We used the new tool to analyze Pacific bluefin tuna (PBT) population growth. • We found that PBT population experiences a positive growth rate. • Surprisingly, stochasticity in early life survival speeds up population growth. • PBT fishing is tolerable if environment supports fast enough maturation (< 9 y/o). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disconnected habitat fragments are poor at supporting population and community persistence; restoration ecologists, therefore, advocate for the establishment of habitat networks across landscapes. Few empirical studies, however, have considered how networks of restored habitat patches affect metacommunity dynamics. Here, using a 10‐year study on restored hedgerows and unrestored field margins within an intensive agricultural landscape, we integrate occupancy modelling with network theory to examine the interaction between local and landscape characteristics, habitat selection and dispersal in shaping pollinator metacommunity dynamics. We show that surrounding hedgerows and remnant habitat patches interact with the local floral diversity, bee diet breadth and bee body size to influence site occupancy, via colonisation and persistence dynamics. Florally diverse sites and generalist, small‐bodied species are most important for maintaining metacommunity connectivity. By providing the first in‐depth assessment of how a network of restored habitat influences long‐term population dynamics, we confirm the conservation benefit of hedgerows for pollinator populations and demonstrate the importance of restoring and maintaining habitat networks within an inhospitable matrix. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prioritizing conservation of source populations within landscapes is proposed as a strategy for recovering tigers globally. We studied population dynamics of tigers in Corbett National Park (CNP) in Indian Terai, which harbours the largest and highest density tiger population in any protected area of the world. Through population viability models, we demonstrate the importance of CNP in tiger recovery within western Terai.We camera trapped 521 km2 of CNP using open population capture–mark–recapture framework between 2010 and 2015 to estimate annual abundance, spatially explicit density, survival, recruitment, temporary movements, sex ratio and proportion of females breeding. We model metapopulation persistence with and without Corbett as a source within western Terai landscape at different levels of poaching and habitat connectivity.In 6 years, we recorded 6,202 photo‐captures of 307 individual tigers. Annual tiger abundance and density were stable at 120 (SE 19) and 14 (SE 3) per 100 km2 respectively. Detection probability of tigers was 0.18 (SE 0.03) and detection‐corrected male:female sex ratio was female biased (0.80 SE 0.13). Apparent annual survival probability was 0.79 (SE 0.05) for females and 0.60 (SE 0.04) for males. Survival of tigers in CNP (0.68 SE 0.12) was lower than that reported for other populations. CNP tigers showed high reproduction with 54.8 (SE 5.1)% females breeding and with addition of 35 (SE 8)% as new recruits to the population each year. Small tiger populations in western Terai with moderate poaching could only persist through dispersal from CNP.Synthesis and applications. Corbett tiger population was characterized by a stable high density, high reproductive rate and low survival, resulting in high turnover rates (32%–48%) between successive years. Such source populations could sustain low‐level poaching and with habitat connectivity, recover tiger populations across the landscape. This study establishes potential thresholds that can likely be achieved by tiger populations under optimal natural conditions and highlights the importance of prioritizing conservation of source populations within tiger landscapes. This information can be used to plan and implement realistic tiger recovery programmes globally. Corbett tiger population was characterized by a stable high density, high reproductive rate and low survival, resulting in high turnover rates (32%–48%) between successive years. Such source populations could sustain low‐level poaching and with habitat connectivity, recover tiger populations across the landscape. This study establishes potential thresholds that can likely be achieved by tiger populations under optimal natural conditions and highlights the importance of prioritizing conservation of source populations within tiger landscapes. This information can be used to plan and implement realistic tiger recovery programmes globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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We introduce a minimal agent-based model to understand the effects of the interplay between dispersal and geometric constraints in metapopulation dynamics under the Allee Effect. The model, which does not impose nonlinear birth and death rates, is studied both analytically and numerically. Our results indicate the existence of a survival-extinction boundary with monotonic behavior for weak spatial constraints and a nonmonotonic behavior for strong spatial constraints so that there is an optimal dispersal that maximizes the survival probability. Such optimal dispersal has empirical support from recent experiments with engineered bacteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential ranges of many species are shifting due to changing ecological conditions. Where populations become patchy towards the range edge, the realised distribution emerges from colonisation–persistence dynamics. Therefore, a greater understanding of the drivers of these processes, and the spatial scales over which they operate, presents an opportunity to improve predictions of species range expansion under environmental change. Species reintroductions offer an ideal opportunity to investigate the drivers and spatial scale of colonisation dynamics at the range edge. To this effect, we performed and monitored experimental translocations of water voles to quantify how colonisation and local persistence were influenced by habitat quality and occupancy. We used a novel statistical method to simultaneously consider effects across a range of spatial scales. Densely occupied neighbourhoods were highly persistent and frequently colonised. Persistence was more likely in high quality habitat, whereas the influence of habitat quality on colonisation was less clear. Colonisation of suitable habitat in distant, sparsely occupied areas was much less frequent than expected from the well documented high dispersal ability of the species. Persistence of these distant populations was also low, which we attribute to the absence of a rescue effect in sparsely populated neighbourhoods. Our results illustrate a mismatch between the spatial scales of colonisation dynamics in the core and edge of a species' range, suggesting that recolonisation dynamics in established populations may be a poor predictor of colonisation dynamics at the range edge. Such a mismatch leads to predictions of long lags between the emergence and colonisation of new habitat, with detrimental consequences for a species' realised distribution, conservation status and contribution to ecosystem function. Conservation translocations that also reinforce existing populations at the range edge might stimulate the rescue effect and mitigate lags in expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The metapopulation paradigm has been central to improve the conservation and management of natural populations. However, despite the large number of studies on metapopulation dynamics, the overall support for the relationships on which the paradigm is based has not been strong. Here, we studied the occupancy dynamics of two Neotropical fishes (i.e., Pimelodella gracilis and Leporinus friderici) to investigate two fundamental premises of the metapopulation paradigm, that is, that isolation and area/habitat quality affect colonisation and extinction probabilities in predictable ways. In order to do this, we used a modification of occupancy models that allows modelling the probability of a site's occupancy as a function of the occupancy of its neighbourhood. We found a weak positive effect of neighbourhood occupancy on P. gracilis colonisation, which is consistent with the propagule rain metapopulation, that is, colonists arriving from outside the studied system. However, we found a strong negative neighbourhood effect on extinction probability, suggesting that declining populations from stream sections are rescued from extinction by neighbouring patches. In contrast, the effect of neighbourhood occupancy on the metapopulation dynamics of L. friderici was in the opposite direction, affecting positively colonisation but not affecting extinction rates, which is consistent with the classical metapopulation model. In addition, the occupancy dynamics of both species were affected by water velocity. To our knowledge, this is the first study to link directly dispersal to local population dynamics in Neotropical fishes, and one of the few studies doing inferences on spatial population dynamics based on direct estimates of neighbourhood occupancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical abstract Highlights • C. bellicosus has a latitudinal gradient in genetic diversity and effective population size. • There is asymmetric northward flow of propagules in this crab metapopulation. • Southern populations are sources, northern populations are sinks. • Northward larval dispersal during spawning explains the genetic structure. • Current fisheries management does not recognize the metapopulation structure. Abstract Management of commercial fisheries resources is commonly done assuming that populations are spatially homogeneous throughout their geographic range. However, uneven gene flow can result in gradients of genetic diversity that can affect population dynamics and management reference points and may contribute to overfishing. We examined whether the brown swimming crab, Callinectes bellicosus , fished along 1200 km on the coast of Sonora (Mexico) is a homogeneous population. Based on previous empirical evidence of differences in phenology, we hypothesized that C. bellicosus has a metapopulation structure which needs to be included in management tools. We conducted a genetic study of C. bellicosus taken at seven sites along the coast of Sonora and obtained their microsatellite genotypes. Recent gene flow, as well as the role of each site as source or sink, were investigated. We found a latitudinal gradient in genetic diversity and identified sites along the coast acting as sources or sinks of migrants. Central sites act as sources, while northern sites are sinks; the main source of migrants was the southern-most site. A predominantly asymmetric metapopulation structure composed of local populations with moderate connectivity may be explained by larval dispersal in the northward oceanic current during the spawning period. Including migration rates between sites in a metapopulation dynamics model of C. bellicosus and considering that fishing and management decisions in source populations will impact neighboring populations located downstream can improve current management of this important commercial fishery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dispersal is a key trait responsible for the spread of individuals and genes among local populations, thereby generating eco‐evolutionary interactions. Especially in heterogeneous metapopulations, a tight coupling between dispersal, population dynamics and the evolution of local adaptation is expected. In this respect, dispersal should counteract ecological specialization by redistributing locally selected phenotypes (i.e. migration load). Habitat choice following an informed dispersal decision, however, can facilitate the evolution of ecological specialization. How such informed decisions influence metapopulation size and variability is yet to be determined. By means of individual‐based modelling, we demonstrate that informed decisions about both departure and settlement decouple the evolution of dispersal and that of generalism, selecting for highly dispersive specialists. Choice at settlement is based on information from the entire dispersal range, and therefore decouples dispersal from ecological specialization more effectively than choice at departure, which is only based on local information. Additionally, habitat choice at departure and settlement reduces local and metapopulation variability because of the maintenance of ecological specialization at all levels of dispersal propensity. Our study illustrates the important role of habitat choice for dynamics of spatially structured populations and thus emphasizes the importance of considering that dispersal is often informed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used redd count data from 88 bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) populations in the upper Columbia River basin to quantify local and regional patterns in population dynamics, including adult abundance, long-term trend, and population synchrony. We further used this information to assess conservation risk of metapopulations using eight population dynamic metrics associated with persistence. Local population abundances were generally low (<20 redds annually) and the majority of trends were either stable (85%) or declining (13%). Evidence of synchrony among populations was apparent but not related to fluvial distance between streams. Variability in annual abundances was 1.4–2.5 times lower in metapopulations than local populations, indicating moderate portfolio effects across the regional stock complex. Importantly, most metrics of conservation risk were uncorrelated with one another, emphasizing that multiple statistics describing population dynamics at various scales are needed for monitoring and assessing recovery. We provide a composite description of conservation risk based on local and regional population dynamics that can help inform conservation management decisions for bull trout and other freshwater fishes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite years of attention, the dynamics of species constrained to disperse within riverine systems are not well captured by existing population models. Here we develop a population model subject to local population dynamics and regional dispersal process in a closed linear riverine system, which consists of three size-different patches (lakes) arranged at different positions in the chain. Generally, two-way dispersal, including down- and upstream, promotes global population density relative to one-way dispersal, but such dispersal superiority is weakened with increasing species relative mortality rate. Furthermore, unbiased dispersal (i.e., balanced down- and upstream) maximizes population viability in this closed linear system. Finally, which type of spatial arrangement of size-different patches is an optimal strategy for species persistence depends on both species inter-patch dispersal and local population dynamics, reflecting the balance between local demographic and regional dispersal processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the metapopulation dynamic model for epidemic spreading of random walkers between subpopulations. A subpopulation is represented by a node on a graph. Each agent or individual is either susceptible (S) or infected (I). All agents move by random walk on the graph; namely, each agent randomly determines the destination of migration. The reaction–diffusion equations are presented as ordinary differential equations, not partial differential equations. To evaluate the risk of each subpopulation (node), we obtain the solutions of reaction–diffusion equations analytically and numerically for small, complete, cycle and star graphs. If a graph is homogeneous, or if every node has the same degree, then the solution never changes for any nodes. However, when a graph is heterogeneous, the infection density in equilibrium differs entirely among nodes. For example, on star graphs, the hub seems to be a supply source of disease because the infection density at the hub is much higher than that at the other nodes. On every graph, the epidemic thresholds are identical for all nodes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epidemic dynamics in a structured population has been widely investigated in recent years by utilizing the metapopulation framework with a reaction-diffusion approach. In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on metapopulation networks, including migration and demographics, wherein population dynamics in each node (a patch) follows the logistic model with a heterogeneous carrying capacity. The epidemic threshold is theoretically calculated at a mean-field level and is then evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations. It is shown that heterogeneity of carrying capacity drastically decreases the threshold, and conversely increasing the migration rate slightly increases the threshold. Interestingly, we observe Monte Carlo simulations showing the effect of heterogeneity of carrying capacity and migration on the epidemic prevalence above the epidemic threshold. Heterogeneity of carrying capacity enhances epidemic spreading in the initial stage, but has no impact on the final infection density. The migration rate has a pronounced impact on both temporal spreading behaviour and endemic state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying demographic and genetic connectivity can help assess marine metapopulation structure. Rays and skates have no larval phase; hence, population connectivity can only result from active movement of individuals. Using thornback ray (Raja clavata) in European waters as a case study, demographic and genetic connectivity were studied for 11 putative populations with unequal population abundances and two hypotheses of dispersal rates. Genetic simulation results highlighted three large metapopulations: in the Mediterranean, around the Azores, and on the Northeast Atlantic shelf. Demographic results highlighted a finer population structure indicating that several pairs of putative populations might be demographically linked. Results were highly sensitive to dispersal assumptions and relative population abundances, which provided insights into the potential magnitude of genetic and demographic connectivity differences. Accounting for demographic connectivity appears to be crucial for managing and conserving rays and skates, while genetic connectivity provides a longer-term perspective and less subtle spatial structures. Moreover, accounting for heterogeneity in population abundances is a key factor for determining or interpreting metapopulation connectivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the importance of diversity to maintaining metapopulation stability is widely recognized, the ecological characteristics that lead to synchronous dynamics within population aggregates are often unclear. We used a constrained dynamic factor analysis to explore patterns of covariance in productivity among 16 Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) conservation units (CUs). Specifically, we tested whether coherent trends in productivity covaried with five distinct ecological attributes: physical characteristics of nursery lakes, large-scale management interventions, genetic similarity, adult migration phenology, or juvenile migratory traits. The top-ranked model had two trends based on nursery lake characteristics and juvenile migratory traits. One trend represented the dynamics of CUs that rear in nursery lakes prior to ocean entry and undergo relatively rapid marine migrations. The second included a sea-type CU, Harrison River, which enters the marine environment without rearing in a nursery lake and migrates more slowly. The uniform response of lake-type CUs, as well as Harrison River CU’s unique life history, suggests that coherent trends are structured by traits that covary with broad life history type, rather than fine-scale characteristics. Furthermore, we document substantial temporal variability in the strength of synchronous dynamics among Fraser River CUs. Greater synchrony in recent years suggests that the importance of shared regional drivers, relative to local processes, may have increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aim: We propose a simple supervised method for forecasting the expansion of the geographical range of non‐indigenous species without any detailed information on the pathway mechanisms. The models currently used, such as metapopulation models, population dynamics [e.g., the susceptible‐infected‐recovered (SIR) model] with diffusion process, and models using individual‐based mechanisms, require specific parameters according to the assumed mechanisms. These parameters are difficult to obtain immediately after the first infestation is detected, although subsequent pandemics of novel pathogens and non‐indigenous pest organisms can be fatal to humans and damage agriculture and native ecosystems. Innovation: A simple machine‐learning approach was developed. The future distribution of the target species was predicted by composing the spreading patterns of the previous range expansions of various alien species similar to the target species. A matrix representing the early–late relationship of infestation between regions was used to compare and compose various range expansion patterns. The eigenvector of the composed matrix gives the predicted order of infestation. Spreading speed was considered using the standard deviation of infestation dates, and future infestation dates were calculated by a reduced major axis with the eigenvector. In the feasibility assessment, the study area (Japan) was divided into many small regions (prefectures), and the dates of infestation in these regions were predicted. Our method successfully predicted the infestation dates of various alien species and the novel H1N1 influenza pandemic in 2009. Main conclusions: Our method is less complex and requires simpler information than other methods and is applicable to all organisms. Constructing a database of the range expansions of alien species, including novel pathogens and agricultural and environmental pests, at the global level and with high spatial resolution, such as at the county or city level, will facilitate the prediction of future range expansions of hazardous organisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intraspecific population diversity (specifically, spatial asynchrony of population dynamics) is an essential component of metapopulation stability and persistence in nature. In 2D systems, theory predicts that metapopulation stability should increase with ecosystem size (or habitat network size): Larger ecosystems will harbor more diverse subpopulations with more stable aggregate dynamics. However, current theories developed in simplified landscapes may be inadequate to predict emergent properties of branching ecosystems, an overlooked but widespread habitat geometry. Here, we combine theory and analyses of a unique long-term dataset to show that a scale-invariant characteristic of fractal river networks, branching complexity (measured as branching probability), stabilizes watershed metapopulations. In riverine systems, each branch (i.e., tributary) exhibits distinctive ecological dynamics, and confluences serve as "merging" points of those branches. Hence, increased levels of branching complexity should confer a greater likelihood of integrating asynchronous dynamics over the landscape. We theoretically revealed that the stabilizing effect of branching complexity is a consequence of purely probabilistic processes in natural conditions, where within-branch synchrony exceeds among-branch synchrony. Contrary to current theories developed in 2D systems, metapopulation size (a variable closely related to ecosystem size) had vague effects on metapopulation stability. These theoretical predictions were supported by 18-y observations of fish populations across 31 watersheds: Our cross-watershed comparisons revealed consistent stabilizing effects of branching complexity on metapopulations of very different riverine fishes. A strong association between branching complexity and metapopulation stability is likely to be a pervasive feature of branching networks that strongly affects species persistence during rapid environmental changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological models attempting to unite the concepts of biodiversity and biogeography have been used to describe and predict the distribution and abundance of species. Two mechanistic hypotheses, the neutral model and the community-level metapopulation model, have the potential for direct comparison. However, there is potential for incorrectly inferring the underlying mechanisms of observed data if the hypotheses have similar descriptive ability. In this paper, we simulated a range of abiotic island-mainland system and biotic community structure variables following the mechanisms underlying these two hypotheses in order to compare model descriptive ability relative to each other and to a null model. We found that the null and metapopulation models could accurately describe data created under their respective assumptions for many of the simulated system structures. The neutral model generally failed to describe data created under neutral conditions relative to the null model. Modelling also revealed limitations of these mechanistic models identifying conditions where metapopulation dynamics would be inferred but were not occurring, and failing to detect metapopulation dynamics where it was actually occurring. To help alleviate this problem, we also identified sets of conditions where metapopulation dynamics, if it is actually occurring, could be distinguished from null or neutral models. Such systems have moderate variability in distance to mainland, density of mainland species and island area, as well as low to moderate numbers of islands and species (10–50). Simulations demonstrated the potential to distinguish unified models under certain conditions, but there are also conditions where models are equivalent and where the model that best described the data was not consistent with the underlying mechanism. These shortcomings may lead to incorrect conclusions regarding mechanisms presumed to be producing observed patterns in species abundance and distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining what factors affect species occurrence is vital to the study of primate biogeography. We investigated the metapopulation dynamics of a lemur community consisting of eight species (Avahi occidentalis, Propithecus coquereli, Microcebus murinus, Microcebus ravelobensis, Lepilemur edwardsi, Cheirogaleus medius, Eulemur mongoz, and Eulemur fulvus) within fragmented tropical dry deciduous forest habitat in Ankarafantsika National Park, Madagascar. We measured fragment size and isolation of 42 fragments of forest ranging in size from 0.23 to 117.7 ha adjacent to continuous forest. Between June and November 2011, we conducted 1218 surveys and observed six of eight lemur species (M. murinus, M. ravelobensis, C. medius, E. fulvus, P. coquereli, and L. edwardsi) in the 42 fragments. We applied among patch incidence function models (IFMs) with various measures of dispersal and a mainland-island IFM to lemur species occurrence, with the aim of answering the following questions: 1) Do lemur species in dry deciduous forest fragments form metapopulations? 2) What are the separate effects of area (extinction risk) and connectivity/isolation (colonization potential) within a lemur metapopulation? 3) Within simulated metapopulations over time, how do area and connectivity/isolation affect occurrence? and 4) What are the conservation implications of our findings? We found that M. murinus formed either a mainland-island or an among patch metapopulation, M. ravelobensis formed a mainland-island metapopulation, C. medius and E. fulvus formed among patch metapopulations, and neither P. coquereli or L. edwardsi formed a metapopulation. Metapopulation dynamics and simulations suggest that area was a more consistent positive factor determining lemur species occurrence than fragment isolation and is crucial to the maintenance of lemur populations within this fragmented landscape. Using a metapopulation approach to lemur biogeography is critical for understanding how lemur species respond to forest loss and fragmentation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology aim to understand how spatial structure influences ecological processes, yet these disciplines address the problem using fundamentally different modeling approaches. Metapopulation models describe how the spatial distribution of patches affects colonization and extinction, but often do not account for the heterogeneity in the landscape between patches. Models in landscape ecology use detailed descriptions of landscape structure, but often without considering colonization and extinction dynamics. We present a novel spatially explicit modeling framework for narrowing the divide between these disciplines to advance understanding of the effects of landscape structure on metapopulation dynamics. Unlike previous efforts, this framework allows for statistical inference on landscape resistance to colonization using empirical data. We demonstrate the approach using 11 yr of data on a threatened amphibian in a desert ecosystem. Occupancy data for Lithobates chiricahuensis (Chiricahua leopard frog) were collected on the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR), Arizona, USA from 2007 to 2017 following a reintroduction in 2003. Results indicated that colonization dynamics were influenced by both patch characteristics and landscape structure. Landscape resistance increased with increasing elevation and distance to the nearest streambed. Colonization rate was also influenced by patch quality, with semi‐permanent and permanent ponds contributing substantially more to the colonization of neighboring ponds relative to intermittent ponds. Ponds that only hold water intermittently also had the highest extinction rate. Our modeling framework can be widely applied to understand metapopulation dynamics in complex landscapes, particularly in systems in which the environment between habitat patches influences the colonization process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most coral-associated decapod species have non-migratory adult populations and depend on their planktonic larvae for dispersal. This study examined the metapopulation structure of three decapod species with different pelagic larval duration (PLD) from twelve coral reef complexes of the Gulf of Mexico. The dispersion of larvae was analyzed through the use of a realistic numerical simulation of the Gulf of Mexico with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model. To study the transport and dispersion of particles in near-surface waters, a particle-tracking subroutine was run using as input the currents from the model. The simulation consisted of the launch of 100 passive particles (virtual larvae) every 24 hours from each reef throughout five years, and tracked for as long as 210 days. Results indicated that species with a short PLD, Mithraculus sculptus (PLD 8‒13 days), had a weak connection among the reefs, but higher self-recruitment, especially on the narrow western shelf. The species with a longer PLD, Dromia erythropus (28‒30 days), had a stronger connection among neighboring reefs (< 300 km). Finally, the species with an even longer PLD, Stenopus hispidus (123‒210 days), had a wider potential distribution than the other species. Circulation on synoptic, seasonal and interannual scales had differential effects on the larval dispersal of each species. The metapopulation structure of M. sculptus and D. erythropus seemed to combine features of the non-equilibrium and the patchy models, whereas that of S. hispidus presumably fit to a patchy model. These findings support previous observations that indicate that species with longer PLD tend to occupy larger areas than species with short PLD, although recruitment of juveniles to the adult populations will also depend on other factors, such as the availability of suitable habitats and the ability to colonize them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Many populations exhibit boom–bust dynamics in which abundance fluctuates dramatically over time. Past research has focused on identifying whether the cause of fluctuations is primarily exogenous, e.g., environmental stochasticity coupled with weak density dependence, or endogenous, e.g., over‐compensatory density dependence. Far fewer studies have addressed whether the mechanism responsible for boom–bust dynamics matters with respect to at‐risk species management. Here, we ask whether the best strategy for restoring habitat across a landscape differs under exogenously vs. endogenously driven boom–bust dynamics. We used spatially explicit individual‐based models to assess how butterfly populations governed by the two mechanisms would respond to habitat restoration strategies that varied in the level of resource patchiness, from a single large patch to multiple patches spaced at different distances. Our models showed that the restoration strategy that minimized extinction risk and boom–bust dynamics would be markedly different depending on the governing mechanism. Exogenously governed populations fared best in a single large habitat patch, whereas for endogenously driven populations, boom–bust dynamics were dampened and extinction risk declined when the total restored area was split into multiple patches with low to moderate inter‐patch spacing. Adding environmental stochasticity to the endogenous model did not alter this result. Habitat fragmentation lowered extinction risk in the endogenously driven populations by reducing their growth rate, precluding both “boom” phases and, more importantly, “bust” phases. Our findings suggest that (1) successful restoration will depend on understanding the causes of fluctuations in at‐risk populations, (2) the level and pattern of spatiotemporal environmental heterogeneity will also affect the ideal management approach, and (3) counterintuitively, for at‐risk species with endogenously governed boom–bust dynamics, lowering the intrinsic population growth rate may decrease extinction risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamic occupancy models are popular for estimating dynamic distribution rates (colonization and extinction) from repeated presence/absence surveys of unmarked animals. This approach assumes closure among repeated samples within primary periods, allowing estimation of dynamic rates between these periods. However, the impact of temporary emigration (TE; reversible changes in sampling availability) on dynamic rate estimates has not been tested., Using simulated data, we investigated the degree to which TE could mislead researchers interested in quantifying dynamics. We then compared results from three avian point count datasets to evaluate the likelihood that TE confounds estimates of dynamics for 19 species under a popular sampling protocol., Simulated experiments indicated that when secondary periods were open to TE, presence of dynamics was correctly identified ≥95.1% of the time, and dynamic rate estimates were accurate. However, dynamic rate estimates were biased when secondary periods were closed to TE. In empirical datasets, dynamic occupancy models had greater support than closed models for all species when secondary sampling periods occurred in immediate succession (i.e. 3 samples within 10 min); however, our results suggest that this is because dynamic estimates were heavily influenced by TE. When counts within a primary period were separated by 24-48 hr, we found evidence of dynamics for less than half of these species. We recommend an alternative sampling approach that allows accurate estimation of dynamic rates when TE is of no interest, and introduce a novel model for estimating both processes simultaneously in rare cases where they are both of biological interest., Concern for violating the occupancy modelling closure assumption has led to widespread recommendations that samples within primary periods be conducted extremely close in time. However, this may not be the best approach when interest is in quantifying dynamic rates. While dynamic occupancy models provide estimates of 'colonization' and 'extinction,' these values do not inherently represent dynamics unless TE has been explicitly modelled or accounted for with sampling design. Naiveté to this fact can result in incorrect conclusions about biological processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prediction of species distributions in an altered climate requires knowledge on how global- and local-scale factors interact to limit their current distributions. Such knowledge can be gained through studies of spatial population dynamics at climatic range margins., Here, using a butterfly ( Pyrgus armoricanus) as model species, we first predicted based on species distribution modelling that its climatically suitable habitats currently extend north of its realized range. Projecting the model into scenarios of future climate, we showed that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats may shift northward by an additional 400 km in the future., Second, we used a 13-year monitoring dataset including the majority of all habitat patches at the species northern range margin to assess the synergetic impact of temperature fluctuations and spatial distribution of habitat, microclimatic conditions and habitat quality, on abundance and colonization-extinction dynamics., The fluctuation in abundance between years was almost entirely determined by the variation in temperature during the species larval development. In contrast, colonization and extinction dynamics were better explained by patch area, between-patch connectivity and host plant density. This suggests that the response of the species to future climate change may be limited by future land use and how its host plants respond to climate change. It is, thus, probable that dispersal limitation will prevent P. armoricanus from reaching its potential future distribution., We argue that models of range dynamics should consider the factors influencing metapopulation dynamics, especially at the range edges, and not only broad-scale climate. It includes factors acting at the scale of habitat patches such as habitat quality and microclimate and landscape-scale factors such as the spatial configuration of potentially suitable patches. Knowledge of population dynamics under various environmental conditions, and the incorporation of realistic scenarios of future land use, appears essential to provide predictions useful for actions mitigating the negative effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work considers the estimation of transition probabilities associated with populations moving among multiple spatial locations based on numbers of individuals at each location at two points in time. The problem is generally underdetermined as there exists an extremely large number of ways in which individuals can move from one set of locations to another. A unique solution therefore requires a constraint. The theory of optimal transport provides such a constraint in the form of a cost function, to be minimized in expectation over the space of possible transition matrices. We demonstrate the optimal transport approach on marked bird data and compare to the probabilities obtained via maximum likelihood estimation based on marked individuals. It is shown that by choosing the squared Euclidean distance as the cost, the estimated transition probabilities compare favorably to those obtained via maximum likelihood with marked individuals. Other implications of this cost are discussed, including the ability to accurately interpolate the population's spatial distribution at unobserved points in time and the more general relationship between the cost and minimum transport energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding metapopulation dynamics requires knowledge about local population dynamics and movement in both space and time. Most genetic metapopulation studies use one or two study species across the same landscape to infer population dynamics; however, using multiple co-occurring species allows for testing of hypotheses related to different life history strategies. We used genetic data to study dispersal, as measured by gene flow, in three ambystomatid salamanders ( Ambystoma annulatum, A. maculatum, and A. opacum) and the Central Newt ( Notophthalmus viridescens louisianensis) on the same landscape in Missouri, USA. While all four salamander species are forest dependent organisms that require fishless ponds to reproduce, they differ in breeding phenology and spatial distribution on the landscape. We use these differences in life history and distribution to address the following questions: (1) Are there species-level differences in the observed patterns of genetic diversity and genetic structure? and (2) Is dispersal influenced by landscape resistance? We detected two genetic clusters in A. annulatum and A. opacum on our landscape; both species breed in the fall and larvae overwinter in ponds. In contrast, no structure was evident in A. maculatum and N. v. louisianensis, species that breed during the spring. Tests for isolation by distance were significant for the three ambystomatids but not for N. v. louisianensis. Landscape resistance also contributed to genetic differentiation for all four species. Our results suggest species-level differences in dispersal ability and breeding phenology are driving observed patterns of genetic differentiation. From an evolutionary standpoint, the observed differences in dispersal distances and genetic structure between fall breeding and spring breeding species may be a result of the trade-off between larval period length and size at metamorphosis which in turn may influence the long-term viability of the metapopulation. Thus, it is important to consider life history differences among closely related and ecologically similar species when making management decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The population structure and seasonal movements of alpine birds in Europe are still largely unknown. Species living in high mountains now face acute risks of habitat loss, range contractions and local extinction due to current and projected climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of the spatial structuring and exchange among populations of European mountain birds is important from both ecological and conservation points of view. The White-winged Snowfinch Montifringilla nivalis is one of the most characteristic passerines of alpine habitats in Europe. Despite the fact that its breeding nuclei are relatively well defined, we still know little about the species' population structure and movements in Western Europe. By analysing two mitochondrial loci (cytochrome b and the control region) and stable isotopes of hydrogen (δH), we assessed to what extent breeding populations of White-winged Snowfinches in the Cantabrian Mountains (CM), the Pyrenees and the Alps, and also a wintering population in the Eastern Pyrenees, function as a metapopulation. We first show the phylogenetic relationships of the White-winged Snowfinch ( Montifringilla nivalis subsp. nivalis) within the Snowfinch complex. When assessing the population structure in Western Europe, most mitochondrial haplotypes were present in all breeding populations, but one was only found in the CM where it predominated. The most widespread haplotypes at the breeding grounds were found in the majority of the wintering individuals, but none of them showed the haplotype specific to the CM. We did not find differences in δH for the primary feathers among breeding populations, but rectrices of individuals wintering in the Pyrenees had considerably lower δH values: isotopic analysis could thus be useful to assign wintering birds to their Alpine breeding grounds. Further studies combining ringing and the analyses of intrinsic markers are an essential step in better appraising the species' metapopulation dynamics and guiding conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial variation in habitat quality and anthropogenic factors, as well as social structure, can lead to spatially structured populations of animals. Demographic approaches can be used to improve our understanding of the dynamics of spatially structured populations and help identify subpopulations critical for the long-term persistence of regional metapopulations. We provide a regional metapopulation analysis to inform conservation management for Masai giraffes ( Giraffa camelopardalis tippelskirchi) in five subpopulations defined by land management designations. We used data from an individual-based mark-recapture study to estimate subpopulation sizes, subpopulation growth rates, and movement probabilities among subpopulations. We assessed the source-sink structure of the study population by calculating source-sink statistics, and we created a female-based matrix metapopulation model composed of all subpopulations to examine how variation in demographic components of survival, reproduction, and movement affected metapopulation growth rate. Movement data indicated no subpopulation was completely isolated, but movement probabilities varied among subpopulations. Source-sink statistics and net flow of individuals indicated three subpopulations were sources, while two subpopulations were sinks. We found areas with higher wildlife protection efforts and fewer anthropogenic impacts were sources, and less-protected areas were identified as sinks. Our results highlight the importance of identifying source-sink dynamics among subpopulations for effective conservation planning and emphasize how protected areas can play an important role in sustaining metapopulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the relative importance of different ecological processes on the metapopulation dynamics of species is the basis for accurately forecasting metapopulation size in fragmented landscapes. Successful local colonization depends on both species dispersal range and how local habitat conditions affect establishment success. Moreover, there is limited understanding of the effects of different spatiotemporal landscape properties on future metapopulation size. We investigate which factors drive the future metapopulation size of the epiphytic model lichen species Lobaria pulmonaria in a managed forest landscape. First, we test the importance of dispersal and local conditions on the colonization-extinction dynamics of the species using Bayesian state-space modelling of a large-scale data set collected over a 10-yr period. Second, we test the importance of dispersal and establishment limitation in explaining establishment probability and subsequent local population growth, based on a 10-yr propagule sowing experiment. Third, we test how future metapopulation size is affected by different metapopulation and spatiotemporal landscape dynamics, using simulations with the metapopulation models fitted to the empirical data. The colonization probability increased with tree inclination and connectivity, with a mean dispersal distance of 97 m (95% credible intervals, 5-530 m). Local extinctions were mainly deterministic set by tree mortality, but also by tree cutting by forestry. No experimental establishments took place on clearcuts, and in closed forest the establishment probability was higher on trees growing on moist than on dry-mesic soils. The subsequent local population growth rate increased with increasing bark roughness. The simulations showed that the restricted dispersal range estimated (compared to non-restricted dispersal range), and short tree rotation length (65 yr instead of 120) had approximately the same negative effects on future metapopulation size, while regeneration of trees creating a random tree pattern instead of an aggregated one had only some negative effect. However, using the colonization rate obtained with the experimentally added diaspores led to a considerable increase in metapopulation size, making the dispersal limitation of the species clear. The future metapopulation size is thus set by the number of host trees located in shady conditions, not isolated from occupied trees, and by the rotation length of these host trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The endangered orchid Anacamptis robusta is a narrowly endemic species restricted to fragmented marsh habitats on Majorca, Spain. To investigate the effects of habitat fragmentation, we quantified genetic diversity and levels of seed exchange among all living metapopulation units of this species. A hypervariable plastid minisatellite was analysed in 1882 individuals and used to estimate genetic diversity, structure, and levels of seed dispersion. High levels of genetic isolation were detected, indicated by low effective migration values between metapopulation units and high genetic differentiation. Bayesian inferences of population growth confirmed previous results of overall population reduction. Comparison of haplotypes found in adult and juvenile plants confirmed reduced seed dispersal among patches. Given the small effective population size and strong population structuring with low exchange of migrants, demographic stochasticity is likely to be the greatest threat to the long-term persistence of this species. However, high values of genetic diversity were observed in almost all metapopulation units, suggesting that the initial colonization process probably involved seed immigration from multiple sources. The genetic survey presented here provides vital information for the future effective management of this rare orchid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary The degree to which offspring remain near their parents or disperse widely is critical for understanding population dynamics, evolution, and biogeography, and for designing conservation actions. In the ocean, most estimates suggesting short-distance dispersal are based on direct ecological observations of dispersing individuals, while indirect evolutionary estimates often suggest substantially greater homogeneity among populations. Reconciling these two approaches and their seemingly competing perspectives on dispersal has been a major challenge. Here we show for the first time that evolutionary and ecological measures of larval dispersal can closely agree by using both to estimate the distribution of dispersal distances. In orange clownfish ( Amphiprion percula ) populations in Kimbe Bay, Papua New Guinea, we found that evolutionary dispersal kernels were 17 km (95% confidence interval: 12–24 km) wide, while an exhaustive set of direct larval dispersal observations suggested kernel widths of 27 km (19–36 km) or 19 km (15–27 km) across two years. The similarity between these two approaches suggests that ecological and evolutionary dispersal kernels can be equivalent, and that the apparent disagreement between direct and indirect measurements can be overcome. Our results suggest that carefully applied evolutionary methods, which are often less expensive, can be broadly relevant for understanding ecological dispersal across the tree of life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How the spatial expansion of a species changes at a human time scale is a process difficult to determine. We studied the dispersal pattern of the French white stork population, using a 21-year ringing/resighting dataset. We used the graph-theory to investigate the strength of links between 5 populations (North-East, North-West, Centre, West, and South) and to determine factors important for the birds’ movements. Two clusters of populations were identified within the metapopulation, with most frequent movements of individuals between North-Eastern and Centre populations, and between North-Western and Western populations. Exchanges of individuals between populations were asymmetrical, where North-Eastern and North-Western populations provided more emigrants than they received immigrants. Neither the geographical distance between populations, nor the difference in densities influenced the number of individuals exchanging between populations. The graph-theory approach provides a dynamic view of individual movements within a metapopulation and might be useful for future population studies in the context of conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]