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Background: Mathematical models can be powerful policymaking tools. Simple, static models are user-friendly for policymakers. More complex, dynamic models account for time-dependent changes but are complicated to understand and produce. Under which conditions are static models adequate? We compare static and dynamic model predictions of whether behavioural disinhibition could undermine the impact of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision to female sex workers in South Africa., Methods: A static model of HIV risk was developed and adapted into a dynamic model. Both models were used to estimate the possible reduction in condom use, following PrEP introduction, without increasing HIV risk. The results were compared over a 20-year time horizon, in two contexts: at epidemic equilibrium and during an increasing epidemic., Results: Over time horizons of up to 5 years, the models are consistent. Over longer timeframes, the static model overstates the tolerated reduction in condom use where initial condom use is reasonably high ($\ge$50%) and/or PrEP effectiveness is low ($\le$45%), especially during an increasing epidemic., Conclusions: Static models can provide useful deductions to guide policymaking around the introduction of a new HIV intervention over short-medium time horizons of up to 5 years. Over longer timeframes, static models may not sufficiently emphasise situations of programmatic importance, especially where underlying epidemics are still increasing., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objectives: New HIV infections remain higher in women than men in sub-Saharan Africa. Preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective HIV prevention measure, currently prioritized for those at highest risk, such as female sex workers (FSWs), for whom it is most cost-effective. However, the greatest number of HIV infections in sub-Saharan Africa occurs in women in the general population. As countries consider wider PrEP scale-up, there is a need to weigh the population-level impact, cost, and relative cost-effectiveness to inform priority setting., Methods: We developed mathematical models of HIV risk to women and derived tools to highlight key considerations for PrEP programming. The models were fitted to South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Kenya, spanning a range of HIV burden in sub-Saharan Africa. The impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of PrEP scale-up for adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), women 25 to 34 years old, and women 35 to 49 years old were assessed, accounting for differences in population sizes and the low program retention levels reported in demonstration projects., Results: Preexposure prophylaxis could avert substantially more infections a year among women in general population than among FSW. The greatest number of infections could be averted annually among AGYW in South Africa (24-fold that for FSW). In Zimbabwe, the greatest number of infections could be averted among women 25 to 34 years old (8-fold that for FSW); and in Kenya, similarly between AGYW and women 25 to 34 years old (3-fold that for FSW). However, the unit costs of PrEP delivery for AGYW, women 25 to 34 years old, and women 35 to 49 years old would have to reduce considerably (by 70.8%-91.0% across scenarios) for scale-up to these populations to be as cost-effective as for FSW., Conclusions: Preexposure prophylaxis has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections in HIV-endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This will necessitate PrEP being made widely available beyond those at highest individual risk and continued integration into a range of national services and at community level to significantly bring down the costs and improve cost-effectiveness.

Objective: The aim of this study was to appropriately plan for rollout and monitor impact of oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP). It is important to understand PrEP continuation and come to a consensus on how best to measure PrEP continuation. This study reviews data on PrEP continuation to document how it is reported, and to compare continuation over time and across populations., Design: A systematic review and meta-analysis., Methods: We searched MEDLINE, Embase and Global Health and reviewed abstracts from HIV conferences from 2017 to 2018 for studies reporting primary data on PrEP continuation. Findings were summarized along a PrEP cascade and continuation was presented by population at months 1, 6 and 12, with random-effects meta-analysis., Results: Of 2578 articles and 596 abstracts identified, 41 studies were eligible covering 22 034 individuals. Continuation data were measured and reported inconsistently. Results showed high discontinuation at month 1 and persistent discontinuation at later time points in many studies. Pooled continuation estimates were 66% at month 1 [n = 5348; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 48-82], 63% at month 6 (n = 13 629; 95% CI: 48-77) and 71% at month 12 (n = 14 933; 95% CI: 60-81; higher estimate than previous timepoints due to inclusion of different studies). Adequate data were not available to reliably compare estimates across populations., Conclusion: This review found that discontinuation at one month was high, suggesting PrEP initiations may be a poor measure of effectiveness. Continuation declined further over time in many studies, indicating existing cross-sectional indicators may not be adequate to understand PrEP use patterns. Studies do not measure continuation consistently, and consensus is needed.