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Background & Aims: Two recently developed composite models, the alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) score and Metroticket 2.0, could be used to select patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are candidates for liver transplantation (LT). The aim of this study was to compare the predictive performance of both models and to evaluate the net risk reclassification of post-LT recurrence between them using each model’s original thresholds. Methods: This multicenter cohort study included 2,444 adult patients who underwent LT for HCC in 47 centers from Europe and Latin America. A competing risk regression analysis estimating sub-distribution hazard ratios (SHRs) and 95% CIs for recurrence was used (Fine and Gray method). Harrell’s adapted c-statistics were estimated. The net reclassification index for recurrence was compared based on each model’s original thresholds. Results: During a median follow-up of 3.8 years, there were 310 recurrences and 496 competing events (20.3%). Both models predicted recurrence, HCC survival and survival better than Milan criteria (p

Background & Aims: Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are selected for liver transplantation (LT) based on pre-LT imaging ± alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) level, but discrepancies between pre-LT tumour assessment and explant are frequent. Our aim was to design an explant-based recurrence risk reassessment score to refine prediction of recurrence after LT and provide a framework to guide post-LT management. Methods: Adult patients who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2018 for HCC in 47 centres were included. A prediction model for recurrence was developed using competing-risk regression analysis in a European training cohort (TC; n = 1,359) and tested in a Latin American validation cohort (VC; n=1,085). Results: In the TC, 76.4% of patients with HCC met the Milan criteria, and 89.9% had an AFP score of ≤2 points. The recurrence risk reassessment (R3)-AFP model was designed based on variables independently associated with recurrence in the TC (with associated weights): ≥4 nodules (sub-distribution of hazard ratio [SHR] = 1.88, 1 point), size of largest nodule (3–6 cm: SHR = 1.83, 1 point; >6 cm: SHR = 5.82, 5 points), presence of microvascular invasion (MVI; SHR = 2.69, 2 points), nuclear grade >II (SHR = 1.20, 1 point), and last pre-LT AFP value (101–1,000 ng/ml: SHR = 1.57, 1 point; >1,000 ng/ml: SHR = 2.83, 2 points). Wolber’s c-index was 0.76 (95% CI 0.72–0.80), significantly superior to an R3 model without AFP (0.75; 95% CI 0.72–0.79; p = 0.01). Four 5-year recurrence risk categories were identified: very low (score = 0; 5.5%), low (1–2 points; 15.1%), high (3–6 points; 39.1%), and very high (>6 points; 73.9%). The R3-AFP score performed well in the VC (Wolber’s c-index of 0.78; 95% CI 0.73–0.83). Conclusions: The R3 score including the last pre-LT AFP value (R3-AFP score) provides a user-friendly, standardised framework to design post-LT surveillance strategies, protocols, or adjuvant therapy trials for HCC not limited to the Milan criteria. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT03775863. Lay summary: Considering discrepancies between pre-LT tumour assessment and explant are frequent, reassessing the risk of recurrence after LT is critical to further refine the management of patients with HCC. In a large and international cohort of patients who underwent transplantation for HCC, we designed and validated the R3-AFP model based on variables independently associated with recurrence post-LT (number of nodules, size of largest nodule, presence of MVI, nuclear grade, and last pre-LT AFP value). The R3-AFP model including last available pre-LT AFP value outperformed the original R3 model only based on explant features. The final R3-AFP scoring system provides a robust framework to design post-LT surveillance strategies, protocols, or adjuvant therapy trials, irrespective of criteria used to select patients with HCC for LT.

Background and aims. Heterogeneous data has been reported regarding liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Latin America. We aimed to describe treatment during waiting list, survival and recurrence of HCC after LT in a multicenter study from Latin America.Material and methods. Patients with HCC diagnosed prior to transplant (cHCC) and incidentally found in the explanted liver (iHCC) were included. Imaging-explanted features were compared in cHCC (non-discordant if pre and post-LT were within Milan, discordant if pre-LT was within and post-LT exceeding Milan).Results. Overall, 435 patients with cHCC and 92 with iHCC were included. At listing, 81% and 91% of cHCC patients were within Milan and San Francisco criteria (UCSF), respectively. Five-year survival and recurrence rates for cHCC within Milan, exceeding Milan/within UCSF and beyond UCSF were 71% and 16%; 66% and 26%; 46% and 55%, respectively. Locoregional treatment prior to LT was performed in 39% of cHCC within Milan, in 53% beyond Milan/within UCSF and in 83% exceeding UCSF (p < 0.0001). This treatment difference was not observed according to AFP values ( 1,000 ng/mL 64%; p = 0.12). Discordant imaging-explanted data was observed in 29% of cHCC, showing lower survival HR 2.02 (CI 1.29; 3.15) and higher recurrence rates HR 2.34 when compared to AFP 1,000 ng/mL at listing was independently associated with a higher 5-year recurrence rate and a HR of 3.24 when compared to AFP