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BACKGROUND: Issues of reported study quality have not been addressed empirically with large-scale data in the cancer prognostic literature. METHODS: Eight quality measures pertaining to study design and assay methods (i.e., blinding, prospective versus retrospective design, power calculations, outcomes' definitions, time of enrollment, reporting of variables, assay description, and assay reference) were evaluated in cancer prognostic marker studies included in meta-analyses identified in Medline and EMBASE. To be eligible, meta-analyses had to include at least six studies and to examine binary outcomes. We estimated the ratios of relative risks, which compared the overall prognostic effects (summary relative risks) between poor-quality and good-quality studies for each quality item. Between-study heterogeneity was tested with the Q statistic (statistically significant at P

We aimed to understand the extent of the pursuit for statistically significant results in the prognostic literature of cancer. We evaluated 340 articles included in prognostic marker meta-analyses (Database 1) and 1575 articles on cancer prognostic markers published in 2005 (Database 2). For each article, we examined whether the abstract reported any statistically significant prognostic effect for any marker and any outcome ('positive' articles). 'Negative' articles were further examined for statements made by the investigators to overcome the absence of prognostic statistical significance. We also examined how the articles of Database 1 had presented the relative risks that were included in the respective meta-analyses. 'Positive' prognostic articles comprised 90.6% and 95.8% in Databases 1 and 2, respectively. Most of the 'negative' prognostic articles claimed significance for other analyses, expanded on non-significant trends or offered apologies that were occasionally remote from the original study aims. Only five articles in Database 1 (1.5%) and 21 in Database 2 (1.3%) were fully 'negative' for all presented results in the abstract and without efforts to expand on non-significant trends or to defend the importance of the marker with other arguments. Of the statistically non-significant relative risks in the meta-analyses, 25% had been presented as statistically significant in the primary papers using different analyses compared with the respective meta-analysis. We conclude that almost all articles on cancer prognostic marker studies highlight some statistically significant results. Under strong reporting bias, statistical significance loses its discriminating ability for the importance of prognostic markers. Eur J Cancer

Estrogen receptor beta (ERbeta) is an important mediator of estrogen function in a variety of tissues. Its expression declines in breast, ovarian, prostatic and colon carcinomas as well as in astrocytic tumours. BAG-1 is a multifunctional protein with an important role in neoplasia and is possibly regulated by estrogen receptors. One of the direct targets of BAG-1 is HSP70. The purpose of this study was to analyse the expression pattern of these proteins in two distinct types of glial neoplasms, to investigate their possible correlation and probe their impact on prognosis. ERbeta, BAG-1 and HSP70 protein expression was monitored immunohistochemically in 66 cases of astrocytomas and 20 oligodendrogliomas. In astrocytic tumours low ERbeta expression correlated significantly with high grade (P < 0.001), higher expression of cytoplasmic BAG-1 (P < 0.001) and worse survival (log rank P = 0.02). Multivariate analysis revealed that ERbeta expression had a prognostic value for overall survival in these patients (Cox P = 0.03), which was not dependent on grade. There was also statistically significant association of BAG-1 nuclear expression with HSP70 cytoplasmic expression. Our results strengthen the hypothesis that ERbeta, BAG-1 and HSP70 play an important role in the pathogenesis and progression of glial neoplasms. Moreover, ERbeta expression in astrocytic tumors might be an important prognostic factor for survival. J Neurooncol

PURPOSE: Tumor angiogenesis is crucial for both the growth of the primary tumor and the development of metastases. Among the factors causing tumor angiogenesis, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is considered as a leading candidate. We aimed to assess the prognostic significance of VEGF and tumor angiogenesis in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). METHODS: We performed a retrospective study of 69 patients with HNSCC, in order to investigate whether VEGF immunohistochemical expression and tumor angiogenesis correlate with clinicopathological parameters and outcome. Tumor angiogenesis was estimated by determining microvessel density (MVD), and VEGF expression was assessed quantitatively. RESULTS: Vascular endothelial growth factor and MVD correlated statistically significant with the clinical stage, but not with the presence of lymph node metastasis at the time of diagnosis. Tumors located in the oral cavity and larynx more often expressed high VEGF immunostaining compared with tumors located in the lower lip. High VEGF expression was associated with higher clinical stage and worse overall survival in this cohort of patients. CONCLUSIONS: Vascular endothelial growth factor expression may have prognostic significance for patients with HNSCC. J Cancer Res Clin Oncol

PURPOSE: Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is considered as a prime mediator of angiogenesis. Various studies examining the relationship between VEGF protein overexpression with the clinical outcome in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma have yielded inconclusive results. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We conducted a meta-analysis of 12 studies (n = 1.002 patients) that evaluated the correlation between VEGF (detected by immunohistochemistry) and 2-year overall survival. The relation between VEGF and lymph node involvement (11 studies, n = 722) was also examined. Data were synthesized with random effect and fixed effect risk ratios. RESULTS: The estimated risk of death in 2 years was 1.88-fold higher in the VEGF-positive patients [95% confidence interval, 1.43-2.45; P < 0.001 random effect calculations]. Between-study heterogeneity was nonsignificant (P = 0.15) but larger studies tended to provide more conservative estimates (P = 0.097). VEGF overexpression was not significantly associated with the presence of lymph node metastasis (risk ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.49; P = 0.087) and there was significant between-study heterogeneity (P = 0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Although some modest bias cannot be excluded, VEGF positivity seems to be associated with worse overall survival in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. Clin Cancer Res

BACKGROUND: Nonreported and selectively reported information and the use of different definitions may introduce biases in the literature of prognostic factors. We probed these biases in a meta-analysis of a prognostic factor for head and neck squamous cell cancer (HNSCC) mortality that has drawn wide attention--the status of the tumor suppressor protein TP53. METHODS: We compared results of meta-analyses that included published data plus unpublished data retrieved from investigators; published data; and only published data indexed with "survival" or "mortality" in MEDLINE/EMBASE, with or without standardized definitions. We also evaluated whether previously published meta-analyses on mortality predictors for various malignancies addressed issues of retrieval and standardized information. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: For the 18 studies with 1364 patients that included published and indexed data, we obtained a highly statistically significant association between TP53 status and mortality. When we used the definitions preferred by each publication, the association was stronger (risk ratio [RR] = 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.13 to 1.67; P = .001) than when we standardized definitions (RR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.53; P = .011). The addition of 13 studies with 1028 subjects that included published but not indexed data reduced the observed association (RR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.03 to 1.47; P = .02). Finally, when we obtained data from investigators (11 studies with 996 patients) and analyzed it with all other data, statistical significance was lost (RR = 1.16, 95% CI = 0.99 to 1.35; P = .06). Among 18 published meta-analyses of 37 cancer prognostic factors, 13 (72%) did not use standardized definitions and 16 (89%) did not retrieve additional information. CONCLUSIONS: Selective reporting may spuriously inflate the importance of postulated prognostic factors for various malignancies. We recommend that meta-analyses thereof should maximize retrieval of information and standardize definitions. J Natl Cancer Inst

Numerous studies indicate the importance of hypoxia-induced pathway in tumor angiogenesis, but in vivo studies examining the importance of this mechanism in prognosis of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma present conflicting results. We performed a retrospective analysis of 81 patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma in order to investigate whether hypoxia-inducible factor 1a (HIF-1a) immunohistochemical expression correlates with vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) expression and clinicopathologic parameters or prognosis. Our results showed a statistically significant association between HIF-1a and VEGF expression in tumors located in the lower lip and in larynx, but not in those located in the oral cavity. HIF-1a expression had no impact on prognosis, while VEGF expression correlated significantly with adverse prognosis. These findings support the hypothesis that tumor angiogenesis is close related, but not strictly dependent, on the hypoxic conditions of tumor's microenvironment. Cancer Lett

PURPOSE: Various studies examining the relationship between tumor suppressor protein TP53 overexpression and/or TP53 gene mutations and the response to chemotherapy and clinical outcome in patients with osteosarcoma have yielded inconclusive results. The purpose of the current study was to evaluate the relation of TP53 status with response to chemotherapy and/or clinical outcome in osteosarcoma. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We conducted a meta-analysis of 16 studies (n=499 patients) that evaluated the correlation between TP53 status and histologic response to chemotherapy and 2-year survival. Data were synthesized in summary receiver operating characteristic curves and with summary likelihood ratios (LRs) and risk ratios. RESULTS: The quantitative synthesis showed that TP53 status is not a prognostic factor for the response to chemotherapy. The positive LR was 1.21 (95% confidence interval, 0.86-1.71), and the negative LR was 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.77-1.07). There was no significant between-study heterogeneity. TP53-positive status tended to be associated with a worse 2-year survival, but the overall results were not formally statistically significant. The association was formally significant in studies that clearly stated that measurements were blinded to outcomes (risk ratio, 2.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-3.44), and in studies using reverse transcription-PCR for evaluating TP53 alterations (risk ratio, 1.76; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-2.91). CONCLUSIONS: TP53 status is not associated with the histologic response to chemotherapy in patients with osteosarcoma, whereas TP53 gene alterations may be associated with decreased survival. Clin Cancer Res