1. Prognostic models in the clinical arena.
- Author
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Bolignano D, Mattace-Raso F, Torino C, D'Arrigo G, Abd ElHafeez S, Provenzano F, Zoccali C, and Tripepi G
- Subjects
- Calibration, Humans, Risk, Models, Statistical, Probability, Prognosis
- Abstract
Making a prognosis is to predict the course of a disease and estimate the probability (or risk) of the appearance of a given outcome in relationship to clinical or non-clinical characteristics. Prognostic assessment is usually modelled by multivariable mathematic equations (prognostic models). In this article we describe what a prognostic model is, how to build a good one, why and how it is important to evaluate its generalizability and accuracy by means of discrimination, calibration and reclassification.
- Published
- 2012
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