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This study exploits a natural experiment to investigate the impact of land reform on the fertility outcomes of households in rural Ethiopia. Public policies and customs created a situation where Ethiopian households could influence their usufruct rights to land via a demographic expansion of the family. The study evaluates the impact of the abolishment of these pronatal property rights on fertility outcomes. By matching aggregated census data before and after the reform with administrative data on the reform, a difference-in-differences approach between reform and non-reform districts is used to assess the impact of the reform on fertility outcomes. The impact appears to be large. The study estimates that women in rural areas reduced their life-time fertility by 1.2 children due to the reform. Robustness checks show that the impact estimates are not biased by spillovers or policy endogeneity.

The aim of this report is to provide a broad overview of the current state of gender equality in Tajikistan. While the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region traditionally surpassed many other regions in terms of gender equality, this advantage has been eroding in recent decades. Particularly in Tajikistan, concerns have been raised that men and women have unequally born the consequences of economic, political, and social transitions after independence in 1991. The report examines several dimensions of gender equality both quantitatively and qualitatively. Tajikistan has set up a legal framework that enshrines principles of equality and non-discrimination, but better implementation results require continued efforts. Prevailing social norms and patriarchal systems of decision-making limit women s ability to make effective choices be it at home or at work. The paper is structured along the following lines. The first section introduces the idea of agency that will remain an important issue throughout the report. This is followed by an analysis of disparities in human capital endowment, including health and education. Gender gaps in the Tajik labor market and entrepreneurial activities of men and women are discussed in the fourth and fifth section. The final section concludes with some policy recommendations that might be beneficial for discussions among policy-makers, civil society actors, and development partners.

It is a contentious issue whether large scale mining creates local employment, and the sector has been accused of hurting women’s labor supply and economic opportunities. This paper uses the rapid expansion of mining in Sub-Saharan Africa to analyze local structural shifts. It matches 109 openings and 84 closings of industrial mines to survey data for 800,000 individuals and exploits the spatial-temporal variation. With mine opening, women living within 20 km of a mine switch from self-employment in agriculture to working in services or they leave the work force. Men switch from agriculture to skilled manual labor. Effects are stronger in years of high world prices. Mining creates local boom-bust economies in Africa, with permanent effects on women’s labor market participation.

This paper assesses the relation between access to markets and cultivated land in Sub-Saharan Africa. Making use of a geo-referenced panel over three decades (1970-2005) during which the road network was significantly improved, the analysis finds a modest but significant positive association between increased market accessibility and local cropland expansion. It also finds that cropland expansion, in turn, is associated with a small but significant increase in local gross domestic product. These results are suggestive of agricultural activities that develop at the extensive margin, which are mostly to serve local demand, but are not indicative of commercial agriculture that serves external markets.

The idea of social inclusion has garnered considerable attention, especially in the context of two recent developments: the Sustainable Development Goals and the heightened attention to inequality. This paper reviews the manner and extent to which social inclusion is addressed in the first 17 Systematic Country Diagnostics (SCDs), which are ex ante, country-level assessments conducted by the World Bank Group, ahead of the preparation of its Country Partnership Frameworks. In addition to this primary purpose, the paper fulfils three other purposes. It allows for a broader reflection on the value of the social inclusion construct in macro-level diagnostics; it takes the opportunity to develop and refine a methodology to assess social inclusion and finally, it positions the narrative on social inclusion into the ongoing discourse on poverty, shared prosperity, inequality and the thinking around the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. It is therefore, a refined articulation of the idea of social inclusion in the context of global epistemological shifts

The role of inherited wealth in modern economies has increasingly come under scrutiny. This study presents one of the first attempts to shed light on how demographic aging could shape this role. It shows that, in the absence of retirement annuities, or for a given level of annuitization, both increasing longevity and decreasing fertility should reduce the inherited share of total wealth in a given economy. Thus, aging is not likely to explain a recent surge in this share in some advanced economies. Shrinking retirement annuities, however, could offset and potentially reverse these effects. The paper also shows that aging could increase the size of individual bequests vis-à-vis real wages. However, these bequests will be more unequally distributed if aging is driven by a drop in fertility. In comparison, the effect of increasing longevity on their distribution in non-monotonic.

This study considers the role of demand-driven changes arising from population aging and how they affect the pattern of international trade as well as trade and immigration policy. An aging society can see a welfare-reducing reduction in its share of manufacturing output and this reduction is magnified by a decrease in trade costs (an increase in globalization). Immigration can ameliorate this outcome if it is directed toward younger immigrants. A unilateral tariff increase can also reduce firm delocation from an aging country, however, a reciprocated tariff increase will unambiguously harm the country with the older average population.

Vouchers stimulate demand for health care services by giving beneficiaries purchasing power. In turn, health facilities’ claims are reimbursed for providing beneficiaries with improved quality of health care. Efficient strategies to generate demand from new, often poor, users and supply in the form of increased access and expanded scope of services would help move Uganda away from inequity and toward universal health care. A reproductive health voucher program was implemented in 20 western and southwest Ugandan districts from April 2008 to March 2012. Using three years of data, this impact evaluation study employed a quasi-experimental design to examine differences in utilization of health services among women in voucher and nonvoucher villages. Two key findings were a 16-percentage-point net increase in private facility deliveries and a decrease in home deliveries among women who had used the voucher, indicating the project likely made contributions to increase private facility births in villages with voucher clients. No statistically significant difference was seen between respondents from voucher and nonvoucher villages in the use of postnatal care services, or in attending four or more antenatal care visits. A net 33-percentage-point decrease in out-of-pocket expenditure at private facilities in villages with voucher clients was found, and a higher percentage of voucher users came from households in the two poorest quintiles. The greater uptake of facility births by respondents in voucher villages compared with controls indicates that the approach has the potential to accelerate service uptake. A scaled program could help to move the country toward universal coverage of maternal health care.

Haiti's economic development has been held back by a history of civil conflict and violence. With donor assistance declining from its exceptional levels following the 2010 earthquake, and concessional financing growing scarce, Haiti must learn to live with tighter budget constraints. At the same time, the United Nations forces that have provided security in the past decade are scaling down. Against this backdrop, this paper explores the conditions under which public spending can minimize violent conflict, and draws possible lessons for Haiti. Drawing on an empirical analysis of 148 countries over the period 1960-2009, simulations for Haiti suggest that increases in military spending would be associated with a higher risk of conflict, an observation in line with Haiti's own history. Greater welfare expenditure (education, health, and social assistance), by contrast, would be associated with lower risk of conflict.

At the beginning of the twenty-first century, intergenerational relations remain a key aspect of the future development and sustainability of the European social model. In the present paper, patterns of intergenerational support and the main driving factors behind individuals' transfer behavior are explored. In particular, the data form the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe are utilized to shed light on the main factors behind the likelihood and intensity of social support, and financial help provided to and received from other family members by ageing and elderly Europeans. The analysis also takes into consideration patterns and factors correlated with grandparenting activities. Finally, special attention is devoted to the condition of those individuals who are sandwiched between care obligations toward their elderly parents and young adult children. It is shown that the likelihood of the exchange of support between family generations is highest in Scandinavian countries and lowest in Southern Europe. The intensity of support follows an opposite North-South gradient. In addition, relevant gender-related inequalities are documented. In general, time-demanding support obligations are more likely to fall on the shoulders of women in the early stage of their later life, while mainly benefitting elderly men.

The Malawi Urbanization Review aims to provide fresh perspectives on urbanization in Malawi, by analyzing the current and potential contribution of urbanization to long-term national development and the current institutional and financial capacity of local governments to manage the process. Analyses presented in this report are particularly timely as Malawi is planning for the coming half decade through the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS) III (2016-2020). Malawi is urbanizing at a moderate rate and has a good chance of proactively managing the urbanization process. Opportunities may arise from a positive structural change that Malawi’s economy is undergoing, whereby the driver of growth and job creation moves from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors. Faster urbanization, with strong linkages with rural areas, can contribute further to deepening such structural change. To unlock the potential of urbanization as a catalyst for long-term economic development, it is necessary to strengthen the capacity of urban local governments to generate revenues and meet the key infrastructure and service needs in urban areas, which remain challenging even at the current rate of urbanization.

This paper re-examines the development implications of international migration focusing on two issues: how the costs and benefits of migration change over time, and the significance of South-South migration for development. First, the analysis finds that although greater migration could push down the wages of native workers of advanced countries in the short run, these wages eventually recover. This pattern would be mostly caused by the beneficial effect of additional labor on the real returns on capital and fostering faster capital formation. Additional South-North migration could favor capital income recipients and reduces labor income in host regions in the short run. In contrast, in sending countries, capital owners could experience lower incomes while wages rise. Globally, the welfare gains of new migrants could be expected to exceed the losses of old migrants by a wide margin. The remaining natives in sending countries could enjoy a net increase in remittances as well as an increase in labor income, although income from capital might decline. Second, in a hypothetical scenario with lower South-South migration, the implied losses of remittance income could lead to substantially lower welfare in developing countries. Although the wage differentials among developing countries tend to be smaller relative to their wage differentials with high-income countries, South-South migrants make substantial contributions to remittances.

This paper examines the effect of air pollution on labor supply in Lima, Peru. It focuses on fine particulate matter (PM2.5), an important pollutant for health according to the medical literature, and shows that moderate levels of pollution reduce hours worked for working adults. The research design takes advantage of rich household panel data in labor outcomes to address omitted variables and allows investigation of whether the response to air pollution is non-linear. The analysis finds that the effect of moderate pollution levels on hours worked is concentrated among households with susceptible dependents, that is small children and elderly adults, while the highest concentrations affect all households. This suggests that caregiving is likely a mechanism linking air pollution to labor supply at moderate levels. Further evidence of this mechanism is provided using DHS data on children morbidity for the same time period. Finally, no evidence is found of intra-household attenuation behavior. For instance, there is no re-allocation of labor across household members, and earnings decrease with air pollution.

This paper documents the influence of diaspora networks of highly-skilled individuals -- that is, inventors -- on international technological collaborations. Using gravity models, it studies the determinants of the internationalization of inventive activity between a group of industrialized countries and a sample of developing and emerging economies. The paper examines the influence exerted by skilled diasporas in fostering cross-country co-inventorship as well as R&D offshoring. The study finds a strong and robust relationship between inventor diasporas and different forms of international co-patenting. However, the effect decreases with the level of formality of the interactions. Interestingly, some of the most successful diasporas recently documented -- namely, Chinese and Indian ones -- do not govern the results.

This study contributes to the literature on legal institutions and determinants of adult mortality. The paper explores the relationship between the presence of domestic violence legislation and women-to-men adult mortality rates. Using panel data for about 95 economies between 1990 and 2012, the analysis finds that having domestic violence legislation leads to lower women-to-men adult mortality rates. According to conservative estimations, domestic violence legislation would have saved about 33 million women between 1990 and 2012. The negative relationship between domestic violence legislation and women-to-men adult mortality rates is robust to several checks and also confirmed using the instrumental variables approach.

The Russian Federation's population has been declining since 1992, but recently the decline appears to be over. Although fertility has risen since the 2007 introduction of the family policy package, which focused on stimulating second and higher-order births, total fertility rates still remain significantly below replacement rate. Unlike some Western European countries, low overall fertility in Russia can be explained predominantly by a high prevalence of one-child families, despite the two-child ideal family size reported by the majority of Russians. This paper examines the correlates of Russian first-time mothers' desire and decision to have a second child. Using the 2004–12 waves of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, the study focuses on the motherhood-career trade-off as a potential obstacle to higher fertility in Russia. The preliminary results indicate that among Russian first-time mothers, being in stable employment is positively associated with the likelihood of having a second child. Moreover, the desire to have a second child is positively associated with the first child attending formal childcare, which suggests that the availability, affordability, and quality of such childcare can be important for promoting fertility. These results are broadly consistent with previous studies in other European countries that indicate that the ability of mothers to combine work and family has important implications for fertility, and that pro-natalist policies focusing on childcare accessibility can offer the greatest payoffs. In addition to these factors, better housing conditions, being married, having an older child, and having a first-born boy are also positively associated with having a second child.

The youth unemployment rate is exceptionally high in developing countries. Because the quality of education is arguably one of the most important determinants of youth's labor force participation, governments worldwide have responded by creating job training and placement services programs. Despite the rapid expansion of skill-enhancement employment programs across the world and the long history of training program evaluations, debates about the causal impact of training-based labor market policies on employment outcomes still persist. Using a quasi-experimental approach, this report presents the short-run effects of skills training and employment placement services in Nepal. Launched in 2009, the intervention provided skills training and employment placement services for more than 40,000 Nepalese youth over a three-year period, including a specialized adolescent girls' initiative that reached 4,410 women ages 16 to 24. The report finds that after three years of the program, the Employment Fund intervention positively improved employment outcomes. Participation in the Employment Fund training program generated an increase in non-farm employment of 15 to 16 percentage points for an overall gain of about 50 percent. The program also generated an average monthly earnings gain of about 72 percent. The report finds significantly larger employment impacts for women than for men, but younger women ages 16 to 24 experienced the same improvements as older females. These employment estimates are comparable, although somewhat higher, than other recent experimental interventions in developing countries.

Policy makers bemoan the lack of research findings to guide urgent decisions, whereas researchers' professional code puts rigor first. This article argues that provisional assessments, produced early in the research cycle, can bridge the gap. Numerous case studies point to the importance of early interaction with policy makers and the delivery of brief, policy-focused papers; but preliminary analyses may be flawed and so increase the chances of a wrong decision. This article demonstrates analytically that a preliminary assessment, supported by the offer of more refined research, provides an option that is superior, on average, to the current practice of submitting a final report at the end of the research cycle. Where practical implementation is concerned, it calls for donor-funded subsidies to promote the use of provisional assessments and for a rapid, independent, professional review process to ensure their quality. While the research-policy exchange in developing countries is a complex, context-specific phenomenon, the proposal offered here holds out some promise of improving decisions in the public sphere under a wide range of circumstances.

Did unemployment in the Great Recession hurt people's health? The broad answer is no: job losses have statistically insignificant impacts on mortality. The exogenous sources of job losses in a U.S. county is the tradable job losses driven by external demand collapses during the Great Recession. The insignificant relationship holds for males and females, for all age groups, and for almost all categories of mortality. Three important exceptions are Alzheimer's, poisoning, and homicide.

For a sample of 53 developing countries, the results show that women's employment among private firms is significantly higher in countries that mandate paternity leave versus those that do not. A conservative estimate suggests an increase of 6.8 percentage points in the proportion of women workers associated with the mandating of paternity leave.

Using household surveys for 24 countries over a 10-year period, this paper investigates why the elderly are more averse to open immigration policies than their younger peers. The analysis finds that the negative correlation between age and pro-immigration attitudes is mostly explained by a cohort or generational change. In fact, once controlling for year of birth, the correlation between age and pro-immigration attitudes is either positive or zero in most of the countries in the sample. Under certain assumptions, the estimates suggest that aging societies will tend to become less averse to open immigration regimes over time.

Evidence on the impacts of a large-scale expansion in pre-primary education is limited and mostly circumscribed to high- and middle-income nations. This study estimates the effects of such an expansion on progression in primary school in rural communities in Guatemala, where the number of pre-primary schools increased from about 5,300 to 11,500 between 1998 and 2005. Combining administrative and population census data in a difference-in-differences framework, the analysis finds that access to pre-primary education increased by 2.4 percentage points the proportion of students that progress adequately and attend sixth grade by age 12. These positive although limited effects suggest the need for complementary actions to produce substantial improvements in adequate progression.

This paper looks at how individual preferences for the allocation of government spending change along the life cycle. Using the Life in Transition Survey II for 34 countries in Europe and Central Asia, the study finds that older individuals are less likely to support a rise in government outlays on education and more likely to support increases in spending on pensions. These results are very similar across countries, and they do not change when using alternative model specifications, estimation methods, and data sources. Using repeated cross-sections, the analysis controls for cohort effects and confirms the main results. The findings are consistent with a body of literature arguing that conflict across generations over the allocation of public expenditures may intensify in ageing economies.

In Latin America, labor markets have been the main channel through which growth has reduced poverty, with higher labor income accounting for 49 percent of the reduction in poverty in 2008–13. Understanding labor markets is critical to designing policies and programs aimed at reducing poverty. With close to 70 percent of the population under age 30 years, labor markets are bound to be central to defining Haiti's future. Yet, labor analysis in Haiti has been constrained by the dearth of data and the focus on measuring the impact of the 2010 earthquake. This present paper contributes to filling this gap by providing an overview of Haiti's labor markets and the determinants of labor income over a decade, focusing on growing urban areas. The paper also contributes to the research on Haiti in general, as well as labor markets in fragile countries such as Haiti, in particular through an unprecedented effort to harmonize three household surveys conducted between 2001 and 2012. Building on this exercise, the study provides new insights into the development of labor markets in a particularly turbulent decade for Haiti, one that was marked by the political crisis of 2004 and the earthquake of 2010. In spite of the earthquake, the analysis shows that Haiti’s labor markets are characterized by continuity over the period. Somewhat surprisingly, the defining features remain overall unchanged in spite of the shock, pointing to heavy forces shaping economic and labor dynamics.

This paper exploits data from a rotating panel that follows individuals for four quarters to shed light on the factors driving the time use decisions and restrictions faced by Mexican youth. The results of the analysis imply that: (i) once youth aged 15 to 18 years old leave school, it is very unlikely that they will return; (ii) being "neither in work nor in school" (Nini) is a highly persistent condition; and (iii) marriage (perhaps motivated by teen pregnancy) increases the probability of girls leaving school and raising children by themselves, which may in turn increase their future likelihood of being Ninis, as well as the probability of their children growing up to become Ninis, potentially creating an intergenerational transmission of Nininess. Similar results are found for other countries in the region (Brazil and Argentina).

Using all the household survey data available in Latin America during the period 1992 to 2013, this paper estimates that in 2015, 20 million youth ages 15 to 24 years in the region were out of school and not working (making them ninis, for "ni estudian ni trabajan"). The share of out-of–school, out-of-work youth in Latin America, at about 19 percent, is roughly equal to the global average of 22 percent. Although women make up over two-thirds of the ninis in the region, the number of male ninis grew by 46 percent between 1992 and 2010. As a result, the absolute number of ninis rose over the two-decade period, even as women's education and employment rates were improving. Global comparisons show that Latin America is the region of the world with the largest concentration of ninis among households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution. Coupled with the long-lasting harm it causes to the youth's future labor-market outcomes, the high incidence of ninis among the poorest households tends to lock in income disparities from one generation to the next, obstructing social mobility and poverty reduction in the region.

In recent years, Turkey has been host to more than two million Syrians seeking refuge. Initially concentrated in the southeastern regions, these refugees now reside throughout the country. There are many questions from policy makers regarding the impact of the population of Syrians Under Temporary Protection on the host community. This paper examines the impact of migrants on regional host communities from a poverty perspective. The paper does not find any negative impacts on poverty for the host community from the increasing population of Syrians Under Temporary Protection as of 2013, despite the high poverty rates experienced among the recent migrants.

Building on recent analyses that find a sizeable overall gender wage gap in Azerbaijan's workforce, this paper uses data on young workers in their early years in the labor market to understand how gender wage gaps evolve over time, if at all. The paper uses a unique database from a survey of young people ages 15–29 years. The analysis provides evidence that new labor market entrants begin with little or no gender differences in earnings, but a wage gap gradually emerges over time closer to the childbearing years. The gender wage gap grows from virtually zero, or even a small, positive gap in favor of women, until age 20 years, to about 20 percent two years later and even more than 30 percent at age 29 years. The gap in labor supply rises from almost zero to about 20 percent during the years from 19 to 22, while the gap in hours worked falls from positive (up to six hours per week more than their male counterparts) to negative (up to five hours per week less) over the same period in the life cycle. When decomposing the gap at different deciles of the wage distribution, it appears that most of it is at the lower and upper ends of the distribution, among young adults and prime-age workers. Selection of women into employment is strong and strongly skill-based: when controlling for sample selection bias, the gender gap becomes positive.

Turkey now hosts the largest refugee population in the world. The Government of Turkey (GoT) estimates the total number of registered Syrians under Temporary Protection (SuTPs) at 2,225,147. The objective of this policy brief is to collate existing publically available material on the situation of SuTPs in Turkey and to summarize: (i) the strategy and principles of Turkey’s unique response to its displacement crisis; (ii) the challenges in managing the socioeconomic dimensions of displacement; and (iii) remaining critical policy issues and the road ahead for Turkey, as well as implications for other countries’ refugee response efforts.

The hub-periphery development pattern of the Guangdong economy, to some extent, is a miniature of that of the Chinese economy. The Pearl River Delta, drawing from its first-nature comparative advantages in factor endowments and proximity to Hong Kong SAR, China, and Macau SAR, China, and the second-nature advantages as first-movers in the reforms in attracting and retaining domestic and foreign resources, has developed into a regional economic center. This paper examines the pattern of inter- and intra-provincial migration and that of the concentration of production, to explore the challenges and opportunities for the success of “double transfer.” The paper suggests a four-prong approach, to improve the business environment, support the realization of latent comparative advantages, increase the skill level of the labor force to support the upgrade of the production structure, and protect the vulnerable, to support the inclusive growth of the economy in Guangdong in a sustainable manner.

Recent surveys show considerable progress in maternal and child health in Ethiopia. The improvement has been in health outcomes and health services coverage. The study examines how different groups have fared in this progress. It tracked 11 health outcome indicators and health interventions related to millennium development goals one, four, and five. These are stunting, underweight, wasting, neonatal mortality, infant mortality, under -five mortality, measles vaccination, and full immunization, modern contraceptive use by currently married women, antenatal care visits, and skilled birth attendance. Trends in rate differences and rate ratios are analyzed. The study also investigates the dynamics of inequalities, using concentration curves for different years. In addition, a decomposition analysis is conducted to identify the role of proximate determinants. The study finds substantial improvements in health outcomes and health services. Although there still exists a considerable gap between the rich and the poor, the study finds some reductions in inequalities of health services. However, some of the improvements in selected health outcomes appear to be pro-rich.

This paper analyzes the effects of land market restrictions on the rural labor market outcomes for women. The existing literature emphasizes two mechanisms through which land restrictions can affect the economic outcomes: the collateral value of land, and (in) security of property rights. Analysis of this paper focuses on an alternative mechanism where land restrictions increase costs of migration out of villages. The testable prediction of collateral effect is that both wages and labor force participation move in the same direction, and insecurity of property rights reduces labor force participation and increases wages. In contrast, if land restrictions work primarily through higher migration costs, labor force participation increases, while wages decline. For identification, this paper exploits a natural experiment in Sri Lanka where historical malaria played a unique role in land policy. This paper provides robust evidence of a positive effect of land restrictions on womens labor force participation, but a negative effect on female wages. The empirical results thus contradict a collateral or insecure property rights effect, but support migration costs as the primary mechanism.

One of the primary motivations behind the establishment of noncontributory pension programs is to allow beneficiaries to retire from the labor force. Yet, as with other unconditional cash transfer schemes, their aggregate effects may be more complex. Using panel data and instrumental variable techniques, this paper shows that the effect of one such program, Colombia Mayor, has been to raise the labor force participation of relatively younger male beneficiaries. This increase occurred precisely in the occupations with characteristics that are likely to require some up-front investment. The paper concludes that the transfer effectively loosened the liquidity constraints to remaining in these occupations. However, no such effect is found among women or older beneficiaries.

Most reports on refugees deal with the immediate needs of displaced people. This paper seeks to go beyond the emergency phase and explore the challenges surrounding protracted refugee situations. The paper examines the refugee situation in Sub-Saharan Africa from a long-term angle, from the perspective of refugees own agency as well as from the perspective of the host community. The paper aims to shed light on the economic lives of refugees in their host communities. Starting with an overview of the situation of refugees in Sub-Saharan Africa, the paper draws on findings from the literature to debunk some entrenched beliefs about refugees. The discussion of refugee crises in Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda draws some lessons. The decision to return is discussed and it is argued that the decision depends on the socioeconomic condition in the host country versus the country of refuge, integration versus return policies in place, the individual set of skills of each refugee, and his or her subjective perception of the political climate in both countries.

A review of the history of the United States from its colonial origins shows how Americas successful development has always been guided by two basic principles: representative democracy, and a proper division of power between national and subnational governments. The United States of America was established as an independent nation by a congress of delegates from 13 provincial assemblies, each of which consisted of representatives elected by their communities. Since colonial times, local democratic rights have attracted immigrants to help build new towns in the growing nation. Responsible local governments in America have had the power and the incentive to make local public investments for developing prosperous communities. Democratic competition in America has been strengthened by the ability of successful local leaders to become competitive candidates for higher offices. But in spite of Americas example, many nations since the French Revolution have instead been drawn to centralized democracy, as national elites may prefer to centralize power around themselves. Americas successful growth ultimately depended on its citizens basic understanding that their welfare and security were enhanced by a balanced federal division of power between their elected local governments and the higher sovereign government of their nation.

Donors increasingly fund interventions to counteract inequality in developing countries, where they fear it can foment instability and undermine nation-building efforts. To succeed, aid relies on the principle of upward accountability to donors. But federalism shifts the accountability of subnational officials downward to regional and local voters. What happens when aid agencies fund anti-inequality programs in federal countries? Does federalism undermine aid? Does aid undermine federalism? Or can the political and fiscal relations that define a federal system resolve the contradiction internally? This study explores this paradox via the Promotion of Basic Services program in Ethiopia, the largest donor-financed investment program in the world. Using an original panel database comprising the universe of Ethiopian woredas (districts), the study finds that horizontal (geographic) inequality decreased substantially. Donor-financed block grants to woredas increased the availability of primary education and health care services in the bottom 20 percent of woredas. Weaker evidence from household surveys suggests that vertical inequality across wealth groups (within woredas) also declined, implying that individuals from the poorest households benefit disproportionately from increasing access to and utilization of such services. The evidence suggests that by combining strong upward accountability over public investment with extensive citizen engagement on local issues, Ethiopia’s federal system resolves the instrumental dissonance posed by aid-funded programs to combat inequality in a federation.

The authors investigate determinants of individual migration decisions in Vietnam, a country with increasingly high levels of geographical labor mobility. Using data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey (VHLSS) of 2012, the authors find that probability of migration is strongly associated with individual, household and community-level characteristics. The probability of migration is higher for young people and those with post-secondary education. Migrants are more likely to be from households with better-educated household heads, female-headed households, and households with higher youth dependency ratios. Members of ethnic minority groups are much less likely to migrate, other things equal. Using multinomial logit methods, we distinguish migration by broad destination, and find that those moving to Ho Chi Minh City or Hanoi have broadly similar characteristics and drivers of migration to those moving to other destinations. The authors also use VHLSS 2012 together with VHLSS 2010, which allows us to focus on a narrow cohort of recent migrants, those present in the household in 2010, but who have moved away by 2012. This yields much tighter results. For education below upper secondary school, the evidence on positive selection by education is much stronger. However, the ethnic minority ‘penalty’ on spatial labor mobility remains strong and significant, even after controlling for specific characteristics of households and communes. This lack of mobility is a leading candidate to explain the distinctive persistence of poverty among Vietnam’s ethnic minority populations, even as national poverty has sharply diminished.

Despite progress in economic and social development in the 2000s, there was an increasing dissatisfaction with life among the population of many developing Arab countries. At the end of the decade, these countries ranked among the least happy economies in the world—a situation that fits the so-called “unhappy development” paradox. The paradox is defined as declining levels of happiness at a time of moderate-to-rapid economic development. This paper empirically tests the strength of association of a range of objective and subjective factors with life evaluation in the Middle East and North Africa region in the years immediately preceding the Arab Spring uprisings (2009–10). The findings suggest a significant, negative association between life satisfaction levels in the region during this period and each of the main perceived reasons for the 2011 uprisings—dissatisfaction with the standard of living, poor labor market conditions, and corruption.

This paper identifies the low-elevation coastal zone populations and developing regions most vulnerable to sea-level rise and other coastal hazards, such as storm surges, coastal erosion, and salt-water intrusion. The focus is on the rural poor in the low-elevation coastal zone, as their economic livelihoods are especially endangered directly by coastal hazards and indirectly through the impacts of climate change on key coastal and near-shore ecosystems. Using geo-spatially referenced malnutrition and infant mortality data for 2000 as a proxy for poverty, this study finds that just 15 developing countries contain over 90 percent of the world’s low-elevation coastal zone rural poor. Low-income countries as a group have the highest incidence of poverty, which declines somewhat for lower-middle-income countries, and then is much lower for upper-middle-income economies. South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, and Sub-Saharan Africa account for most of the world’s low-elevation coastal zone rural poor, and have a high incidence of poverty among their rural low-elevation coastal zone populations. Although fostering growth, especially in coastal areas, may reduce rural poverty in the low-elevation coastal zone, additional policy actions will be required to protect vulnerable communities from disasters, to conserve and restore key coastal and near-shore ecosystems, and to promote key infrastructure investments and coastal community response capability.

Although women’s police centers have been gaining popularity as a measure to address domestic violence, to date no quantitative evaluations of their impacts on the incidence of domestic violence or any other manifestations of gender equality have been done. This paper estimates the effects of women’s police stations in Brazil on female homicides, as a measure of the most severe form of domestic violence. Given that a high fraction of female deaths among women ages 15 to 49 years can be attributed to aggression by an intimate partner, female homicides appear the best available proxy for severe domestic violence considering the scarcity of data on domestic violence. The paper uses a panel of 2,074 municipalities and takes advantage of the gradual rollout of women’s police stations from 2004 to 2009, to estimate the effect of establishing a women’s police station on the municipal female homicide rate. Although the analysis does not find an association on average, women’s police stations appear to be highly effective among some groups of women: women living in metropolitan areas and younger women. Establishing a women’s police station in a metropolitan municipality is associated with a reduction in the homicide rate by 1.23 deaths per 100,000 women (which roughly amounts to a 17 percent reduction in the average homicide rate in metropolitan municipalities). The reduction in the homicide rate of women ages 15 to 24 is even higher: 5.57 deaths per 100,000 women. Qualitative work suggests that better economic opportunities and less traditional social norms in metropolitan areas may explain the heterogeneous impacts of women’s police stations in metropolitan areas and outside them.

Policy makers in developing countries, including India, are increasingly sensitive to the links between spatial transformation and economic development. However, the empirical knowledge available on those links is most often insufficient to guide policy decisions. There is no shortage of case studies on urban agglomerations of different sorts, or of benchmarking exercises for states and districts, but more systematic evidence is scarce. To help address this gap, this paper combines insights from poverty analysis and urban economics, and develops a methodology to assess spatial performance with a high degree of granularity. This methodology is applied to India, where individual household survey records are mapped to “places” (both rural and urban) below the district level. The analysis disentangles the contributions household characteristics and locations make to labor earnings, proxied by nominal household expenditure per capita. The paper shows that one-third of the variation in predicted labor earnings is explained by the locations where households reside and by the interaction between these locations and household characteristics such as education. In parallel, this methodology provides a workable metric to describe spatial productivity patterns across India. The paper shows that there is a gradation of spatial performance across places, rather than a clear rural-urban divide. It also finds that distance matters: places with higher productivity are close to each other, but some spread their prosperity over much broader areas than others. Using the spatial distribution of this metric across India, the paper further classifies places at below-district level into four tiers: top locations, their catchment areas, average locations, and bottom locations. The analysis finds that some small cities are among the top locations, while some large cities are not. It also finds that top locations and their catchment areas include many high-performing rural places, and are not necessarily more unequal than average locations. Preliminary analysis reveals that these top locations and their catchment areas display characteristics that are generally believed to drive agglomeration economies and contribute to faster productivity growth.

Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster growth in poor regions in the past was related in part to more favorable demographic trends. This finding has important consequences for Russia. If the demographic trends in poorer regions worsen in the future, this could dampen economic convergence. Unless there are significant increases in labor productivity or additions to the labor force through migration, growth in Russian regions will moderate as the Russian population shrinks and ages in the coming decades.

This study examines the long-term impacts of international migration by comparing immigrants who had successful ballot entries in a migration lottery program, and first moved almost a decade ago, with people who had unsuccessful entries into those same ballots. The long-term gain in income is found to be similar in magnitude to the gain in the first year, despite migrants upgrading their education and changing their locations and occupations. This results in large, sustained benefits to the migrants’ immediate family, who have substantially higher consumption, durable asset ownership, savings, and dietary diversity. In contrast, the study finds no measureable impact on extended family.

This study analyzes the extent of downward bias in the calculation of inequality of opportunity for continuous outcomes such as income. A typically recognized source of bias is the unobserved circumstances as there is a limited set of variables available in household and labor force surveys. Another previously overlooked source is the likely unobservable nature of top incomes. Using Monte Carlo simulations where the underlying inequality of opportunity is predetermined at various levels, the study presents three key findings. First, the omission of a relevant circumstance can bias the inequality of opportunity estimate by as much as 80 percent, depending on how much variation of the outcome such circumstance explains. Second, not observing the top 5 percent of the income distribution can lead to downward biases of anywhere between 12 and 35 percent, and the combination of missing the most favored population and even one relevant circumstance exacerbates the bias of the empirical estimates. The third key result is that the estimated inequality of opportunity is strongly correlated with the amount of variation in the outcome variable explained by the combination of circumstances (measured by the R2). This result suggests that in empirical applications, the inequality of opportunity estimate can be roughly (and quickly) approximated using simple econometric techniques.

Social norms affect almost every aspect of people’s lives, and can be an obstacle to or support economic development. This paper outlines what social norms are and how they work, providing examples from everyday life and from development case studies. Sometimes not much can be done about changing undesirable social norms. In those cases, development economists need to be aware of how the existence of those norms can impact the effects of the policies they advocate. But of particular importance to development economists is the ways in which social norms can be changed, at least under some circumstances. Understanding of social norm change is still patchy at best, but the paper outlines the theoretical underpinnings of change, with empirical evidence from various policies aimed at changing social norms. However, some of those policies raise ethical concerns that would require attention.

This paper presents trends in monetary and nonmonetary dimensions of wellbeing in Ethiopia using data from the Household Consumption and Expenditure and Welfare Monitoring surveys implemented in 2000, 2005, and 2011. The paper provides evidence on changes in overlapping deprivations using a non-index approach to multidimensional poverty. It assesses the performance of various dimensions in education, health, and living standards, taking one indicator at a time. It then examines the overlap between different dimensions of poverty and examines how this has changed over time in Ethiopia and across rural and urban areas. It highlights that although Ethiopia’s multidimensional poverty index is very high, there have been improvements in overlapping deprivations and, as a result, the number of individuals deprived in multiple dimensions has fallen.

This issue includes the following headings: living on the edge in Mexico; what has the rise of China meant for labor markets in Latin America?; educating our future teachers; the growing and long-lasting effects of Brazil’s trade liberalization on workers; capturing food consumed away from home in welfare measures; a behavioral approach to water conservation; and using satellite images to estimate local poverty.

This paper brings together sociological theories of culture and gender to answer the question – how do large-scale development interventions induce cultural change? Through three years of ethnographic work in rural Bihar, the authors examine this question in the context of Jeevika, a World Bank-assisted poverty alleviation project targeted at women, and find support for an integrative view of culture. The paper argues that Jeevika created new “cultural configurations” by giving economically and socially disadvantaged women access to a well-defined network of people and new systems of knowledge, which changed women’s habitus and broke down normative restrictions constitutive of the symbolic boundary of gender.