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Purpose: This study investigated (1) the transition rate of elite world-class throwers, (2) the age of peak performance in either elite junior and/or elite senior athletes, and (3) if relative age effect (RAE) influences the chance of being considered elite in junior and/or senior category. Methods: The career performance trajectories of 5108 throwers (49.9% females) were extracted from the World Athletics database. The authors identified throwers who had reached the elite level (operationally defined as the World all-time top 50 ranked for each age category) in either junior and/or senior category and calculated the junior-to-senior transition rate. The age of peak performance and the RAE were also investigated. Results: The transition rate at 16 and 18 years of age was 6% and 12% in males and 16% and 24% in females, respectively. Furthermore, elite senior throwers reached their personal best later in life than elite junior throwers. The athletes of both genders considered elite in the junior category showed a large RAE. Interestingly, male athletes who reached the elite level in senior category also showed appreciable RAE. Conclusions: Only a few of the athletes who reach the top 50 in the world at 16 or 18 years of age manage to become elite senior athletes, underlining that success at the beginning of an athletic career does not predict success in the athlete’s senior career. Moreover, data suggest that being relatively older may confer a benefit across the whole career of male throwers.

Purpose: To quantify how many of the top 50 under-18 (U18) sprinters in the world managed to become top 50 ranked as adult competitors. The authors also described the career trajectory of athletes ranked in the top 50 during either U18 or senior category. Methods: A total of 4924 male and female athletes competing in sprint races and ranked in the International Association of Athletics Federations (now World Athletics) lists in any of the seasons between the 2000 and 2018 were included in the study. The athletes ranked in the top 50 positions of all-time lists during U18, senior, or both categories were analyzed. Results: Only 17% of the male and 21% of the female top 50 ranked U18 managed to become top 50 ranked senior athletes. The top 50 ranked senior athletes consistently produced yearly larger improvements during late adolescence and early adulthood compared with those who ranked in the top 50 at U18. Furthermore, top 50 ranked senior athletes reached their peak performance later compared with the top 50 ranked only in U18. Conclusions: This study confirms that early success in track and field is not a good predictor of success at senior level in sprinting events. The yearly performance improvements and their tracking provide the most suitable approach to identify athletes more likely to succeed as elite performers in adulthood. The authors hope that the results of this study can provide useful comparative data and reference criteria for talent-identification and -development programs.

This study aimed (a) to estimate the transition rate for top 50 ranked track and field jumpers, (b) to compare the performance progression of top 50 ranked senior jumpers (top50 senior) to those who failed to be top 50 ranked in the senior category despite being top 50 ranked in the under 18 category (only U18), and (c) to verify whether relative age effect may at least partially explain the differences in the two above-mentioned subgroups. The career performance trajectories of 5981 athletes (2837 females) competing in jump events from 2000 to 2019 were extracted from the World Athletics database. The all-time top 50 ranked athletes for each age from 16 years to senior category were identified. Performance progression characteristics were compared using linear mixed-effects model. Only 8% of males and 16% of females top 50 ranked at the age of 16 years managed to be included among the top50 senior. Only U18subgroup made the first appearance in the database (at 15-16 years) and reached the peak performance (at 20 years) earlier than top50 senior (17-18 and 26-27 years, respectively). The relative age effect was largely present in Only U18 but not in top50 senior subgroups. Most of the early-successful U18 world-class jumpers did not manage to maintain the same level of competitiveness in adulthood since they experienced a plateau in performance from 20 years of age. Conversely, top 50 ranked senior jumpers continued to produce consistent performance improvement up to 26-27 years of age.

Objectives To quantify the junior-to-senior successful transition rate in sprint swimming events in elite European performers. Design Retrospective analysis of publicly available competition data collected between 2004 and 2019. Methods The yearly performance of 6631 European swimmers (females = 41.8% of the sample) competing in 50 and 100 m freestyle, backstroke, breaststroke, and butterfly were included in the analysis. The junior-to-senior transition rate was determined as the number of elite junior athletes who maintained their elite status in adulthood. To investigate how the definition of elite may affect the calculation of the transition rate, we operationally defined elite athletes as those ranked in the all-time top 10, 25, 50, and 100 in their category. We also calculated the correlation between junior and senior performances. Results The average transition rates ranged, depending on the age of reference, from 10 to 26% in males and from 23 to 33% in females. The transition rate for the top 100 junior swimmers was greater than that for the top 10 swimmers. In general, swimmers who swam 50 m showed a slightly lower transition rate compared with those that swam 100 m. Depending on the age of reference, low-to-moderate correlations were observed between junior and senior peak performances. Conclusions Most elite junior athletes did not maintain the elite level in adulthood. Except for athletes in the last year of the junior category (18 years for males and 17 years for females), junior performances were poorly correlated with senior performances.

This study looks at the educational experiences, from the preschool years to advanced professional training in STEM fields, of a targeted sample of 10 (7 male, 3 female) early college entrants in China who later became professors at prestigious USA research universities. The purpose of the study was to find out (1) what some identifiable endogenous factors were about these individuals that facilitated the success of their accelerated learning and development, (2) what kinds of exogenous factors (e.g., environmental opportunities, resources, support) they experienced from childhood to adulthood that enhanced the successful acceleration experience, and (3) how these endogenous and exogenous factors facilitated their developmental transitions every step of the way, especially from the role of a student to that of an aspiring scientist. These questions are addressed in light of evolving complexity theory. Retrospective interviews were used for data collection. Thematic analysis of the codes from interview data yielded a conceptual map. A distinct set of endogenous and exogenous factors at different developmental junctures were identified, and their dynamic interplay was delineated to account for accelerated trajectories toward a scientific research career. The theoretical significance and practical implications of the study for talent development in science are discussed.

Parental leaves are, besides unemployment, the main reason for career breaks in early career. Despite the progress in recent decades towards more equal sharing of childcare between mothers and fathers, the labour market risk due to parenting remains mainly with women. In this article, we analyse how parental leaves relate to early career trajectories of young Finnish men and women. Using longitudinal register data for 2005&ndash, 2016 from the Finnish Centre for Pensions, we perform a multi-trajectory analysis of the labour market attachment of a cohort born in 1980. Based on working days and earnings, we find five distinct career trajectories for both men and women, with the majority being well attached to the labour market by their mid-30s. While men and women on average have similar employment lengths, the gender gap in earnings is already 30 per cent in this early career phase. One of the causes may be found in the highly unequal division of family-related career breaks, the duration of mothers&rsquo, family-related leaves in this cohort was 13 times longer than fathers&rsquo, leave spells. Long home care leaves were particularly common among mothers with low education levels and weak attachment to the labour market. Efforts towards a more equal division of parental leaves are needed in order to combat gender inequalities that already emerge in early career and potentially cause life-long disadvantages for women&rsquo, s careers, earnings and pensions.