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Background: Widespread white matter abnormalities are a frequent finding in chronic schizophrenia patients. More inconsistent results have been provided by the sparser literature on at-risk states for psychosis, i.e., emerging subclinical symptoms. However, considering risk as a homogenous construct, an approach of earlier studies, may impede our understanding of neuro-progression into psychosis., Methods: An analysis was conducted of 3-Tesla MRI diffusion and symptom data from 112 individuals (mean age, 21.97 ± 4.19) within two at-risk paradigm subtypes, only basic symptoms (n = 43) and ultra-high risk (n = 37), and controls (n = 32). Between-group comparisons (involving three study groups and further split based on the subsequent transition to schizophrenia) of four diffusion-tensor-imaging-derived scalars were performed using voxelwise tract-based spatial statistics, followed by correlational analyses with Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes responses., Results: Relative to controls, fractional anisotropy was lower in the splenium of the corpus callosum of ultra-high-risk individuals, but only before stringent multiple-testing correction, and negatively correlated with General Symptom severity among at-risk individuals. At-risk participants who transitioned to schizophrenia within 3 years, compared to those that did not transition, had more severe WM differences in fractional anisotropy and radial diffusivity (particularly in the corpus callosum, anterior corona radiata, and motor/sensory tracts), which were even more extensive compared to healthy controls., Conclusions: These findings align with the subclinical symptom presentation and more extensive disruptions in converters, suggestive of severity-related demyelination or axonal pathology. Fine-grained but detectable differences among ultra-high-risk subjects (i.e., with brief limited intermittent and/or attenuated psychotic symptoms) point to the splenium as a discrete site of emerging psychopathology, while basic symptoms alone were not associated with altered fractional anisotropy., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

As early detection of symptoms in the subclinical to clinical psychosis spectrum may improve health outcomes, knowing the probabilistic susceptibility of developing a disorder could guide mitigation measures and clinical intervention. In this context, polygenic risk scores (PRSs) quantifying the additive effects of multiple common genetic variants hold the potential to predict complex diseases and index severity gradients. PRSs for schizophrenia (SZ) and bipolar disorder (BD) were computed using Bayesian regression and continuous shrinkage priors based on the latest SZ and BD genome-wide association studies (Psychiatric Genomics Consortium, third release). Eight well-phenotyped groups (n = 1580; 56% males) were assessed: control (n = 305), lower (n = 117) and higher (n = 113) schizotypy (both groups of healthy individuals), at-risk for psychosis (n = 120), BD type-I (n = 359), BD type-II (n = 96), schizoaffective disorder (n = 86), and SZ groups (n = 384). PRS differences were investigated for binary traits and the quantitative Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. Both BD-PRS and SZ-PRS significantly differentiated controls from at-risk and clinical groups (Nagelkerke's pseudo-R 2 : 1.3-7.7%), except for BD type-II for SZ-PRS. Out of 28 pairwise comparisons for SZ-PRS and BD-PRS, 9 and 12, respectively, reached the Bonferroni-corrected significance. BD-PRS differed between control and at-risk groups, but not between at-risk and BD type-I groups. There was no difference between controls and schizotypy. SZ-PRSs, but not BD-PRSs, were positively associated with transdiagnostic symptomology. Overall, PRSs support the continuum model across the psychosis spectrum at the genomic level with possible irregularities for schizotypy. The at-risk state demands heightened clinical attention and research addressing symptom course specifiers. Continued efforts are needed to refine the diagnostic and prognostic accuracy of PRSs in mental healthcare., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Importance: Diverse models have been developed to predict psychosis in patients with clinical high-risk (CHR) states. Whether prediction can be improved by efficiently combining clinical and biological models and by broadening the risk spectrum to young patients with depressive syndromes remains unclear., Objectives: To evaluate whether psychosis transition can be predicted in patients with CHR or recent-onset depression (ROD) using multimodal machine learning that optimally integrates clinical and neurocognitive data, structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI), and polygenic risk scores (PRS) for schizophrenia; to assess models' geographic generalizability; to test and integrate clinicians' predictions; and to maximize clinical utility by building a sequential prognostic system., Design, Setting, and Participants: This multisite, longitudinal prognostic study performed in 7 academic early recognition services in 5 European countries followed up patients with CHR syndromes or ROD and healthy volunteers. The referred sample of 167 patients with CHR syndromes and 167 with ROD was recruited from February 1, 2014, to May 31, 2017, of whom 26 (23 with CHR syndromes and 3 with ROD) developed psychosis. Patients with 18-month follow-up (n = 246) were used for model training and leave-one-site-out cross-validation. The remaining 88 patients with nontransition served as the validation of model specificity. Three hundred thirty-four healthy volunteers provided a normative sample for prognostic signature evaluation. Three independent Swiss projects contributed a further 45 cases with psychosis transition and 600 with nontransition for the external validation of clinical-neurocognitive, sMRI-based, and combined models. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020., Main Outcomes and Measures: Accuracy and generalizability of prognostic systems., Results: A total of 668 individuals (334 patients and 334 controls) were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 25.1 [5.8] years; 354 [53.0%] female and 314 [47.0%] male). Clinicians attained a balanced accuracy of 73.2% by effectively ruling out (specificity, 84.9%) but ineffectively ruling in (sensitivity, 61.5%) psychosis transition. In contrast, algorithms showed high sensitivity (76.0%-88.0%) but low specificity (53.5%-66.8%). A cybernetic risk calculator combining all algorithmic and human components predicted psychosis with a balanced accuracy of 85.5% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 86.4%). In comparison, an optimal prognostic workflow produced a balanced accuracy of 85.9% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 87.3%) at a much lower diagnostic burden by sequentially integrating clinical-neurocognitive, expert-based, PRS-based, and sMRI-based risk estimates as needed for the given patient. Findings were supported by good external validation results., Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that psychosis transition can be predicted in a broader risk spectrum by sequentially integrating algorithms' and clinicians' risk estimates. For clinical translation, the proposed workflow should undergo large-scale international validation.

In subjects at risk for psychosis, the studies on gray matter volume (GMV) predominantly reported volume loss compared with healthy controls (CON). However, other important morphological measurements such as cortical surface area (CSA) and cortical thickness (CT) were not systematically compared. So far, samples mostly comprised subjects at genetic risk or at clinical risk fulfilling an ultra-high risk (UHR) criterion. No studies comparing UHR subjects with at-risk subjects showing only basic symptoms (BS) investigated the differences in CSA or CT. Therefore, we aimed to unravel the contribution of the 2 morphometrical measures constituting the cortical volume (CV) and to test whether these groups inhere different morphometric features. We conducted a surface-based morphometric analysis in 34 CON, 46 BS, and 39 UHR to examine between-group differences in CV, CSA, and CT vertex-wise across the whole cortex. Compared with BS and CON, UHR individuals presented increased CV in frontal and parietal regions, which was driven by larger CSA. These groups did not differ in CT. Yet, at-risk subjects who later developed schizophrenia showed thinning in the occipital cortex. Furthermore, BS presented increased CSA compared with CON. Our results suggest that volumetric differences in UHR subjects are driven by CSA while CV loss in converters seems to be based on cortical thinning. We attribute the larger CSA in UHR to aberrant pruning representing a vulnerability to develop psychotic symptoms reflected in different levels of vulnerability for BS and UHR, and cortical thinning to a presumably stress-related cortical decomposition., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

The task-positive network (TPN) is anticorrelated with activity in the default mode network (DMN), and possibly reflects competition between the processing of external and internal information, while the salience network (SN) is pivotal in regulating TPN and DMN activity. Because abnormal functional connectivity in these networks has been related to schizophrenia, we tested whether alterations are also evident in subjects at risk for psychosis. Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging was tested in 28 subjects with basic symptoms reporting subjective cognitive-perceptive symptoms; 19 with attenuated or brief, limited psychotic symptoms; and 29 matched healthy controls. We characterized spatial differences in connectivity patterns, as well as internetwork connectivity. Right anterior insula (rAI) was selected as seed region for identifying the SN; medioprefrontal cortex (MPFC) for the DMN and TPN. The 3 groups differed in connectivity patterns between the MPFC and right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (rDLPFC), and between the rAI and posterior cingulate cortex (PCC). In particular, the typically observed antagonistic relationship in MPFC-rDLPFC, rAI-PCC, and internetwork connectivity of DMN-TPN was absent in both at-risk groups. Notably, those connectivity patterns were associated with symptoms related to reality distortions, whereas enhanced connectivity strengths of MPFC-rDLPFC and TPN-DMN were related to poor performance in cognitive functions. We propose that the loss of a TPN-DMN anticorrelation, accompanied by an aberrant spatial extent in the DMN, TPN, and SN in the psychosis risk state, reflects the confusion of internally and externally focused states and disturbance of cognition, as seen in psychotic disorders., (© The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)