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The United States faces an increasingly complicated set of national security and economic threats. Chief among these are (1) progressively more sophisticated and damaging cyberattacks that threaten national security; harm government institutions, for-profit enterprises (including defense contractors), and institutions of higher learning; and undermine the country's system of property rights; and (2) rising levels of national debt held by foreign competitors. China poses the greatest threat in both regards. China's government carries out, organizes, and/or facilitates cyberattacks to misappropriate intellectual property with serious consequences to the U.S.'s national security and economy. China also has acquired significant holdings in U.S. government-issued debt instruments. Mounting U.S. government debt restricts annual federal government budgetary decisions, negatively affects the U.S.'s international standing as a borrower, and threatens national security by giving foreign debt holders, such as China, potential leverage in foreign relations negotiations. No policy prescription to date has achieved meaningful and lasting success in addressing these threats, and there are indications that the threats are only worsening. The National Trade Secret Protection and Remedy Strategy ("NTSPS") policy prescription proposed by this Article addresses the cyberattack and federal debt threats in a way that links and transforms them from vulnerabilities into leverage to protect the U.S.'s national security, system of property rights, and future economic well-being. Specifically, the U.S, government should pursue trade secret theftrelated litigation and remedies against the Chinese government and its surrogates in U.S. federal courts. The proposed NTSPS would (1) create a specific, limited government property interest in intellectual property developed under government defense contracts; (2) create extra-territorial jurisdiction for the U.S. government and personal jurisdiction over foreign nations that engage in trade secret misappropriation either directly or indirectly through state-supported or enabled entities or persons; and (3) provide for readily available pre-judgment remedies, such as attachment and liens, to secure the government's remedy, and satisfaction of judgments through execution on U.S. debt held instruments held by the misappropriator-in this case, China. Successful implementation of the NTSPS would require amendments to several existing federal statutes and defense-contracting regulations and procedures. Implementing the NTSPS strategy will allow the U.S. federal government to (1) compensate itself and U.S.-based companies for the damages each has suffered as the result of Chinese-led or -sponsored cyberattacks; (2) deter future Chinese cyberattacks by conveying a strong message that the U.S. will take meaningful action in response to said attacks; (3) slow the advancement of Chinese military technology by forcing China to internalize the significant research and development expenses incurred by the U.S. to develop the technological capabilities often targeted by cyber espionage initiatives; (4) significantly reduce U.S. debt and consequently the restrictions and burdens it places on the U.S. economy and national defense capability; and (5) pare down the financial leverage China holds over the U.S. in foreign relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to show how the self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model might be a suitable econometric framework for characterizing the dynamics of the US public debt/GDP ratio after the Bretton Woods collapse. Our preferred SETAR specifications are capable of capturing the main stylized facts of the US public debt/GDP ratio between 1974 and 2024. In addition, the estimated SETAR models are consistent with theoretical frameworks that look to explain the behavior of the US public debt/GDP ratio before and after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Finally, under the assumption of public debt/GDP ratio stationarity, for which we find only limited and inconclusive evidence, this paper provides some arguments for why previous studies, which use the exponential smooth threshold autoregressive (ESTAR) models, logistic smooth threshold autoregressive (LSTAR) models or SETAR-type models for the first differences of the US public debt/GDP ratio, are potentially misspecified on both econometric and economic grounds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of European Mirror / Európai Tükör is the property of National University of Public Service and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this paper, we seek to improve models of support for taxes, spending and borrowing beyond income, ideology and party identification. We discuss how trust in government and willingness to pay taxes have been measured in research around the globe. We present the notion of attachment as how citizens characterize the quality of their relationship to government. We test our measure of attachment, using well-understood analogies, with a sample of adult residents in the United States. The choice of analogy is a strong predictor of voter support for borrowing. These effects are separate from, and in addition to, commonly employed determinants (income, education, ideology, and party identification) and allow for stronger anti-government sentiments to be captured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this exploratory article, we aim to open a research agenda for renewed attention to the relationship between the capitalist state and the technology ecosystem. Over the last decade, private technology companies have increasingly become enmeshed with the activities of the state in arenas such as policing, healthcare, and welfare administration. At a time when so many facets of state activity are being infiltrated by technology firms and their products, we ask how we should theorise the relationship between the capitalist state and technology capital? This paper develops one approach to answer this question by aligning the priorities of tech capital with those of the neoliberal state namely, through the disciplining and managing of the relative surplus population. In this arena, we argue, a form of techfare has begun to take shape: a technology-assisted extension and intensification of the disciplinary logics that work to lock the relative surplus population into exploitative market relations and punitive institutions in advanced capitalist countries like the United States. We explore techfare and the disciplining of labour through two avenues: the business of consumer finance vis-à-vis debt and credit instruments, and various forms of tech-enabled strategies of law-enforcement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article comments on three papers within the issue: "Long-Term Effects of Government Deficits on the U.S. Output Potential," by George von Furstenburg, "Capital Formation and the Recent Productivity Slowdown," by Peter Clark, and "U.S. Productivity Growth Recession: History and Prospects for the Future," by Michael McCarthy. The author discusses each article and criticizes their shortcomings. He looks at von Furstenburg's use of the Phelps-Shell model of dynamic economic growth and notes the usefulness of neoclassical growth theory. The author feels that his discussion on the effects of government deficits on output growth or productivity represent a fruitful economic analysis innovation.

This paper, a theoretically oriented presentation, examines the social optimality of the current policy of one-hundred per cent guarantees for public agencies' debt issues. The analysis suggests and explores an alternative policy: Coordinating debt repayment with the performance of the assets underlying the debt. The limits of this alternative are analyzed under conditions of uncertainty, characterized by imperfect and expensive information. The first section of the paper will introduce the problem of socially optimal agency debt policy. The classical solution for the optimal agency behavior and its modifications, necessitated by costly imperfect information, will be the focus of the following two sections. The analysis in the next two sections will examine optimal agency policy in a state-preference world utilizing a Pareto criteria for social welfare. The final section of the paper will study the implications for agency optimality in a log utility/channel capacity information world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically investigates the dynamics between budget deficit and government debt in the U.S. using two different measures of the budget deficit: the current budget deficit and cyclically-adjusted budget deficit. A threshold Vector autoregression (VAR) model is estimated to explore the dynamics in different regimes using quarterly data from 1947:Q1 to 2017:Q3. The specification test rejects a linear VAR model against the threshold VAR. When we use the current budget deficit, regime 1 resemble governments prioritize minimizing budget deficit and debt, whereas, regime 2 resemble otherwise. When we use the cyclically adjusted budget deficit, regime 1 resemble economic expansions, whereas, regime 2 resemble recessions. The impulse responses show evidence of asymmetry and counter-cyclicality. The impulse responses also indicate that an increase in the debt dictate the government's response towards minimizing the budget deficit and tend to prioritize budget deficit less when the economy expands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper estimates the impact on the US economy of four types of uncertainty about (i) government spending, (ii) tax changes, (iii) public debt, and (iv) monetary policy. Uncertainty about government debt has a large and persistent effect on output, consumption, investment, consumer confidence, and business confidence. Uncertainty about tax changes also has detrimental consequences for real activity but the effect of spending and monetary policy uncertainty appears to be small. About 25% of output fluctuations are accounted for by policy uncertainty, with government debt making the largest contribution at longer horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author comments on a paper that explains why Europe experienced an external debt crisis while the U.S. suffered only a public debt crisis at the end of the first decade of the 21st century. Topics include a detailed analysis provided by the authors regarding key episodes and their facts for the U.S. and the European Monetary Union (EMU), and a disagreement with the remark that academics and policymakers did not anticipate the occurrence of external debt crises when EMU was created.

Copyright of New Economist / Novi Ekonomist is the property of University of East Sarajevo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The author examines the state of the fiscal and welfare policy of public debt in the U.S. based on the evidence provided by economist Olivier Blanchard in his presidential address to the American Economic Association in 2019. Topics discussed include the welfare effects of increased debt against realistic increase in risks, views on Blanchard's calibrated approach toward positive welfare effects of increased debt, and the importance of government debt expansion in times of economic growth.

This paper analyzes how U.S. monetary policy affects the pricing of dollar‐denominated sovereign debt. We document that yields on dollar‐denominated sovereign bonds are highly responsive to U.S. monetary policy surprises—during both the conventional and unconventional policy regimes—and that the passthrough of unconventional policy to foreign bond yields is, on balance, comparable to that of conventional policy. In addition, a conventional U.S. monetary easing (tightening) leads to a significant narrowing (widening) of credit spreads on sovereign bonds issued by countries with a speculative‐grade credit rating but has no effect on the corresponding weighted average of bilateral exchange rates for a basket of currencies from the same set of risky countries; this indicates that an unanticipated tightening of U.S. monetary policy widens credit spreads on risky sovereign debt directly through the financial channel, as opposed to indirectly through the exchange rate channel. During the unconventional policy regime, yields on both investment‐ and speculative‐grade sovereign bonds move one‐to‐one with policy‐induced fluctuations in yields on comparable U.S. Treasuries. We also examine whether the response of sovereign credit spreads to US monetary policy differs between policy easings and tightenings and find no evidence of such asymmetry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the relationship between the US net external position and the exchange rate regime. I find a structural break in the US net external position at the end of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates that changed both the mean and variance of the series. On average, the US changed from a creditor to a debtor position and the variance of the external position increased during the floating period. This increase is to a large extent due to the valuation component of external adjustment that accounts for 54% of the variance of the US external position during the floating period but only 29% during the fixed exchange rate period. Further analysis shows that the exchange rate regime mainly affects the valuation channel of external adjustment. There is also evidence of another structural break in the US external position around the time of the introduction of the euro. Finally, I document asset pricing implications from the relationship between the exchange rate regime and the external adjustment process, as external imbalances predict the foreign exchange once the exchange rate regime is taken into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A conference paper is presented that examines several issues that are related to postwar bank lending policies in the U.S. The author investigates whether or not bank lending policies are the cause of price increases in markets such as real estate and consumer goods, if these policies lead to the deterioration in the quality of the debt structure and how to prevent these policies from leading to inflationary expansion of demand deposits.

The author comments on a paper that explains why Europe experienced an external debt crisis while the U.S. suffered only a public debt crisis at the end of the first decade of the 21st century. Topics covered include the factors to consider proposed by the paper's authors in making economic predictions, the introduction of fiscal flexibility into the analysis of sovereign default, and the use of revenue behavior around fiscal adjustment.

In the contemporary political environment of polarized claims about disputed realities, the online fact-check industry was born. These enterprises have received awards and praise but also accusations of bias and error, bringing their methods and conclusions into question. This paper examines the comparative epistemology of the three major fact-check sites: do they examine the same questions and reach the same conclusions? A content analysis of the published fact-checks addressing three disputed realties - the existence of climate change, the influence of racism, and the consequences of the national debt - suggests substantial differences in the questions asked and the answers offered, limiting the usefulness of fact-checking for citizens trying to decide which version of disputed realities to believe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we empirically study the relation between public debt and economic growth. We analyze how the public debt to GDP ratio at a certain point in time is cor- related with the GDP growth rate in the following period, where we consider a one-year time span, a three-year time interval and a five-years interval. Using panel data comprising seven developed countries from 1970-2012, we estimate a pooled regression model and a random effects model. We find some evidence for a significantly negative relation between debt and growth. Further, for most specifications this relationship does not seem to be characterized by non-linearities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the findings of a study published by French economist Olivier Blanchard about public debt and low interest rates in the U.S., in 2019. Topics discussed include the Pareto efficiency of a fiscal Ponzi scheme according to Blanchard, impact of social security on wages and welfare losses, and Blanchard's views on the possibility of fiscal Ponzi scheme based on the economy's growth rate.

This paper proposes a theory of the fiscal foundations of inflation based on imperfect knowledge and learning. Because imperfect knowledge breaks Ricardian equivalence, the scale and composition of the public debt matter for inflation. High and moderate duration debt generates wealth effects on consumption demand that impairs the intertemporal substitution channel of monetary policy: aggressive monetary policy is required to anchor inflation expectations. Counterfactual experiments conducted in an estimated model reveal that the US economy would have been substantially more volatile over the Great Inflation and Great Moderation periods if US debt levels had been those observed in Italy or Japan. (JEL D84, E31, E32, E52, E62, H63) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2011, the publicly held debt-to-GDP ratio in the USA reached $$68\,\%$$ and is expected to continue rising. Many proposals to curb the government deficit and the resulting debt are being discussed. In this paper, we use the standard neoclassical growth model to examine the future path of output, budget deficits, and debt in the US economy under different tax policies. While this framework is relatively simple, it incorporates the general equilibrium effects of tax policy, which are often missing from the static scoring method used by the Congressional Budget Office. Our results show that debt-to-GNP ratios above $$100\,\%$$ are likely to continue into the future and that even small labor supply elasticities have a significant impact on these projections. We also find that labor income tax rates higher than $$40\,\%$$ are needed for the deficit-to-GNP ratio to return to its historical level in the long run. Such high tax rates, however, result in about 10 % lower per capita GNP and large welfare costs at the steady state compared to the historical tax rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we consider a modified version of Diamond's OLG model. We show, first, that dynamic inefficiency may be relevant when the presence of imperfect competition is taken into account. Second, if fiscal policy is used to avoid inefficiency and maintain an optimal capital intensity, the required debt ratio will be inversely related to the growth rate. Third, austerity policies - reductions in government consumption and entitlement programs for the old generation - raise the required debt ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2007–08 financial crisis exposed and exacerbated the debt pathologies of the West. This paper examines whether the new global debt relations that have been generated by this crisis have transformed global power politics, changing the way in which the global South and the global North interrelate and interact. To do so the paper analyses the G20 advanced and emerging economies, examining a number of key indicators related to debt, indebtedness and financial leverage. This research leads to two main findings. First, the crisis has indeed given rise to new global debt relations. As a result, any reforms in the post-crisis global political economy will take place in an environment that favours the rising powers. Second, the USA maintains its capacity to control the parameters of this new global debt politics and economics, but cannot directly impose the terms of a solution to the existing ‘global/hegemonic imbalances’ on the rising powers. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

An introduction is presented in which the author discusses various reports within the issue on topics related to the U.S. including taxation of fuel economy, healthcare, and national debt.

This paper examines the financial crisis of 2007/9 and the downturn in the U.S. We argue that effective demand over the 2001-2006 expansion was maintained by credit. The role of credit in a Vector Error Correction Model and Granger-causality between aggregate spending, credit, disposable income, and profits are examined. We show that credit itself is determined by factors outside the circular flow of income. The results raise new hypotheses about the crucial relationships in macroeconomics that sustain aggregate spending. We then compute the generalized impulse responses in the VECM to demonstrate the severity of the downturn and show that legislative changes that dismantled the restrictions placed on the financial sector and the consequent structural changes after 1980 enabled the growth of new debt instruments and credit. The overexpansion of credit when profits and house prices were declining in 2005/06 and informational asymmetries on the quality of credit and its sudden withdrawal in 2007 paralyzed the economy and led to the Great Recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

YouTube has become a popular platform for political debate. Issues discussed via the medium of video and hosted on sites such as YouTube increasingly employ rhetorical devices such as humor, satire, and irony. In this paper, we focus on a campaign for fiscal conservatism aimed at reducing US's sizable or 'huge' debt. The campaign features a caricaturized personality 'Hugh Jidette' and uses irony and satire to convey a point. Drawing on a theory of caricature, we illustrate empathy, gap, differentiation, and exaggeration by using examples from the five advertisements from the campaign for 'Hugh Jidette for President in 2012'. We find that a political issue such as fiscal policy, and more specifically national debt, can be a good fit for caricature because it contains all the necessary conditions and mechanism described in the theory. However, our analysis suggests a further mechanism that may be at work in political caricature-irony. The dangers of misinterpretation are discussed, and the link between caricature and irony is specified. Future avenues for research are explored. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Financing is the property of Financing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article examines the scale of fiscal policy on deficit financing and public debt in the U.S. based on the studies published by economists Olivier Blanchard, Lukasz Rachel and Lawrence H. Summers in 2019. Topics discussed include the fiscal and welfare costs of public debt according to Blanchard, the scale of Pareto efficiency in an overlapping generation economy, and the safe labor endowment assumption.

The article analyzes the effects of deficits and debt on the economy of the U.S. Topics discussed include effects of deficit-financed spending on short-run aggregate demand, the importance of discretionary fiscal policy in dealing with financial crises, and the efficacy of countercyclical fiscal policy.

The paper examines alternative options for managing public debt and public assets in a government balance sheet framework that includes the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and Social Security. Even after September 11, U.S. fiscal policy is on a trajectory to accumulate substantial "uncommitted funds." The paper examines how such funds should be invested. I conclude that high-quality fixed-income securities are the best benchmark and that Social Security is the most appropriate government asset manager. The analysis of policy alternatives reveals a trilemma between maintaining a liquid Treasury market, minimizing rent seeking, and facilitating inter-generational risk sharing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compare the fraction of asymmetric shocks smoothed in the United States and in the Euro Area through risk-sharing channels. By building on a novel dataset, the paper addresses key comparability issues in the literature. Our findings confirm that total risk sharing is higher in the United States and that capital markets are a more powerful shock-absorption channel than in the Euro Area, but less so than previously reported. We also provide a detailed comparison of risk-sharing mechanisms over time and in the face of longer-lasting shocks. Our results suggest that the financial crisis was associated with a reduction in risk sharing through capital markets in the United States, while during the sovereign debt crisis counter-cyclical fiscal policies allowed for higher consumption smoothing in the Euro Area. Finally, both in the United States and in the Euro Area risk sharing tends to decline as shocks become more persistent. • We compare risk sharing between the US and the Euro Area. • We also address comparability issues in the literature on risk sharing. • Risk sharing is higher in the US, but less so than previously reported. • The financial crisis hampered risk sharing through capital markets in the US. • Fiscal policies were the main tool at work during the European debt crisis. • Considering the difference between data is key to compare the two entities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]