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Humanitarian crises represent a significant public health risk factor for affected populations exacerbating mortality, morbidity, disabilities, and reducing access to and quality of health care. Reliable and timely information on the health status of and services provided to crisis-affected populations is crucial to establish public health priorities, mobilize funds, and monitor the performance of humanitarian action. Numerous efforts have contributed to standardizing and presenting timely public health information in humanitarian settings over the last two decades. While the prominence of process and output (rather than outcome and impact) indicators in monitoring frameworks leads to adequate information on resources and activities, health outcomes are rarely measured due to the challenges of measuring them using gold-standard methods that are difficult to implement in humanitarian settings.We argue that challenges in collecting the gold-standard performance measures should not be a rationale for neglecting outcome measures for critical health and nutrition programs in humanitarian emergencies. Alternative indicators or measurement methods that are robust, practical, and feasible in varying contexts should be used in the interim while acknowledging limitations or interpretation constraints. In this paper, we draw from existing literature, expert judgment, and operational experience to propose an approach to adapt public health indicators for measuring performance of the humanitarian response across varied contexts.Contexts were defined in terms of parameters that capture two of the main constraints affecting the capacity to obtain performance information in humanitarian settings: (i) access to population or health facilities; and (ii) availability of resources for measurement. Consequently, 2 × 2 tables depict four possible scenarios: (A) a situation with accessible populations and with available resources; (B) a situation with available resources but limited access to affected populations; (C) a situation with accessible populations and limited resources; and (D) a situation with both limited access and limited resources.Methods and data sources can vary from large population-based surveys, rapid assessments of populations or health facilities, routine health management information systems, or data from sentinel sites in the community or among facilities. Adapting indicators and methods to specific contexts of humanitarian settings increases the potential for measuring the performance of humanitarian programs beyond inputs and outputs by assessing health outcomes, and consequently improving program impact, reducing morbidity and mortality, and improving the quality of lives amongst persons affected by humanitarian emergencies.

Background Nationally representative household surveys are the gold standard for tracking progress in coverage of life-saving maternal and child interventions, but often do not provide timely information on coverage at the local and health facility level. Electronic routine health information system (RHIS) data could help provide this information, but there are currently concerns about data quality. This analysis seeks to improve the usability of and confidence in electronic RHIS data by using adjustments to calculate more accurate numerators and denominators for essential interventions. Methods Data from three sources (Ugandan Demographic and Health (UDHS) survey, electronic RHIS, and census) were used to provide estimates of essential maternal (> 4 antenatal care visits (ANC), skilled delivery, and postnatal care visit (PNC)) and child health interventions (diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, and hepatitis B and Haemophilus influenzae type b and polio vaccination series, measles vaccination, and vitamin A). Electronic RHIS data was checked for quality and both numerators and denominators were adjusted to improve accuracy. Estimates were compared between the three sources. Results Estimates of maternal health interventions from adjusted electronic RHIS data were lower than those of the UDHS, while child intervention estimates were typically higher. Adjustment of electronic RHIS data generally improved accuracy compared with no adjustment. There was considerable agreement between estimates from adjusted, electronic RHIS data, and UDHS for skilled delivery and first dose of childhood vaccination series, but lesser agreement for ANC visits and second and third doses of childhood vaccinations. Conclusions Nationally representative household surveys will likely continue being the gold standard of coverage estimates of maternal and child health interventions, but this analysis shows that current approaches to adjusting health facility estimate works better for some indications than others. Further efforts to improve accuracy of estimates from RHIS sources are needed.

Background Many low- and middle-income countries cannot measure maternal mortality to monitor progress against global and country-specific targets. While the ultimate goal for these countries is to have complete civil registrations systems, other interim strategies are needed to provide timely estimates of maternal mortality. Objective The objective is to inform on potential options for measuring maternal mortality. Methods This paper uses a case study approach to compare methodologies and estimates of pregnancy-related mortality ratio (PRMR)/maternal mortality ratio (MMR) obtained from four different data sources from similar time periods in Bangladesh, Mozambique, and Bolivia—national population census; post-census mortality survey; household sample survey; and sample vital registration system (SVRS). Results For Bangladesh, PRMR from the 2011 census falls closely in line with the 2010 household survey and SVRS estimates, while SVRS’ MMR estimates are closer to the PRMR estimates obtained from the household survey. Mozambique's PRMR from household survey method is comparable and shows an upward trend between 1994 and 2011, whereas the post-census mortality survey estimated a higher MMR for 2007. Bolivia's DHS and post-census mortality survey also estimated comparable MMR during 1998–2003. Conclusions Overall all these data sources presented in this paper have provided valuable information on maternal mortality in Bangladesh, Mozambique, and Bolivia. It also outlines recommendations to estimate maternal mortality based on the advantages and disadvantages of several approaches. Contribution Recommendations in this paper can help health administrators and policy planners in prioritizing investment for collecting reliable and contemporaneous estimates of maternal mortality while progressing toward a complete civil registration system.

Background Significant levels of funding have been provided to low- and middle-income countries for development assistance for health, with most funds coming through direct bilateral investment led by the USA and the UK. Direct attribution of impact to large-scale programs funded by donors remains elusive due the difficulty of knowing what would have happened without those programs, and the lack of detailed contextual information to support causal interpretation of changes. Methods This study uses the synthetic control analysis method to estimate the impact of one donor’s funding (United States Agency for International Development, USAID) on under-five mortality across several low- and middle-income countries that received above average levels of USAID funding for maternal and child health programs between 2000 and 2016. Results In the study period (2000–16), countries with above average USAID funding had an under-five mortality rate lower than the synthetic control by an average of 29 deaths per 1000 live births (year-to-year range of − 2 to − 38). This finding was consistent with several sensitivity analyses. Conclusions The synthetic control method is a valuable addition to the range of approaches for quantifying the impact of large-scale health programs in low- and middle-income countries. The findings suggest that adequately funded donor programs (in this case USAID) help countries to reduce child mortality to significantly lower rates than would have occurred without those investments.

Background With the 40th anniversary of the Declaration of Alma-Ata, a global effort is underway to re-focus on strengthening primary health care systems, with emphasis on leveraging community health workers (CHWs) towards the goal of achieving universal health coverage for all. Institutionalizing effective, sustainable community health systems is currently limited by a lack of standard metrics for measuring CHW performance and the systems they work within. Developed through iterative consultations, supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and in partnership with USAID and UNICEF, this paper details a framework, list of indicators, and measurement considerations for monitoring CHW performance in low- and middle-income countries. Methods A review of peer-reviewed articles, reports, and global data collection tools was conducted to identify key measurement domains in monitoring CHW performance. Three consultations were successively convened with global stakeholders, community health implementers, advocates, measurement experts, and Ministry of Health representatives using a modified Delphi approach to build consensus on priority indicators. During this process, a structured, web-based survey was administered to identify the importance and value of specific measurement domains, sub-domains, and indicators determined through the literature reviews and initial stakeholder consultations. Indicators with more than 75% support from participants were further refined with expert qualitative input. Results Twenty-one sub-domains for measurement were identified including measurement of incentives for CHWs, supervision and performance appraisal, data use, data reporting, service delivery, quality of services, CHW absenteeism and attrition, community use of services, experience of services, referral/counter-referral, credibility/trust, and programmatic costs. Forty-six indicators were agreed upon to measure the sub-domains. In the absence of complete population enumeration and digitized health information systems, the quality of metrics to monitor CHW programs is limited. Conclusions Better data collection approaches at the community level are needed to strengthen management of CHW programs and community health systems. The proposed list of metrics balances exhaustive and pragmatic measurement of CHW performance within primary healthcare systems. Adoption of the proposed framework and associated indicators by CHW program implementors may improve programmatic effectiveness, strengthen their accountability to national community health systems, drive programmatic quality improvement, and plausibly improve the impact of these programs.

Background Nigeria has one of the highest under-five mortality rates in the world. Identifying the causes of these deaths is crucial to inform changes in policy documents, design and implementation of appropriate interventions to reduce these deaths. This study aimed to provide national and zonal-level estimates of the causes of under-five death in Nigeria in the 2013–2018 periods. Methods We conducted retrospective inquiries into the cause of deaths of 948 neonates and 2,127 children aged 1–59 months as identified in the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). The verbal autopsy asked about signs and symptoms during the final illness. The Physician Coded Verbal Autopsy (PCVA) and Expert Algorithm Verbal Autopsy (EAVA) methods were employed to assign the immediate and underlying cause of deaths to all cases. Result For the analysis, sampling weights were applied to accommodate non-proportional allocation. Boys accounted for 56 percent of neonatal deaths and 51.5 percent of the 1–59-months old deaths. About one-quarter of under-5 mortality was attributed to neonatal deaths, and 50 percent of these neonatal deaths were recorded within 48 h of delivery. Overall, 84 percent of the under-5 deaths were in the northern geopolitical zones. Based on the two methods for case analysis, neonatal infections (sepsis, pneumonia, and meningitis) were responsible for 44 percent of the neonatal deaths, followed by intrapartum injury (PCVA: 21 percent vs. EAVA: 29 percent). The three main causes of death in children aged 1–59 months were malaria (PCVA: 23 percent vs. EAVA: 35 percent), diarrhoea (PCVA: 17 percent vs. EAVA: 23 percent), and pneumonia (PCVA: 10 percent vs. EAVA: 12 percent). In the North West, where the majority of under-5 (1–59 months) deaths were recorded, diarrhoea was the main cause of death (PCVA: 24.3 percent vs. EAVA: 30 percent). Conclusion The causes of neonatal and children aged 1–59 months deaths vary across the northern and southern regions. By homing on the specific causes of mortality by region, the study provides crucial information that may be useful in planning appropriately tailored interventions to significantly reduce under-five deaths in Nigeria.

Background Nigeria’s under-five health outcomes have improved over the years, but the mortality rates remain unacceptably high. The qualitative component of Nigeria’s 2019 verbal and social autopsy (VASA) showed that caregivers’ health beliefs about causes of illnesses and efficacious treatment options contribute to non-use/delay in use of facility-based healthcare for under-five children. This study explored how these health beliefs vary across zones and how they shape how caregivers seek healthcare for their under-five children. Methods Data for this study come from the qualitative component of the 2019 Nigeria VASA, comprising 69 interviews with caregivers of under-five children who died in the five-year period preceding the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS); and 24 key informants and 48 focus group discussions (FGDs) in 12 states, two from each of the six geo-political zones. The transcripts were coded using predetermined themes on health beliefs from the 2019 VASA (qualitative component) using NVivo. Results The study documented zonal variation in belief in traditional medicine, biomedicine, spiritual causation of illnesses, syncretism, and fatalism, with greater prevalence of beliefs discouraging use of facility-based healthcare in the southern zones. Driven by these beliefs and factors such as availability, affordability, and access to and perceived quality of care in health facilities, caregivers often choose one or a combination of traditional medicines, care from medicine vendors, and faith healing. Most use facility-based care as the last option when other methods fail. Conclusion Caregivers’ health beliefs vary by zones, and these beliefs influence when and whether they will use facility-based healthcare services for their under-five children. In Nigeria’s northern zones, health beliefs are less likely to deter caregivers from using facility-based healthcare services, but they face other barriers to accessing facility-based care. Interventions seeking to reduce under-five deaths in Nigeria need to consider subnational differences in caregivers’ health beliefs and the healthcare options they choose based on those beliefs.

Background A social mobilization (SM) initiative contributed to India’s success in polio elimination. This was the CORE Group Polio Project (CGPP) India, a partner of the Uttar Pradesh (UP) SM Network and which continued its SM activities, even during the polio-free period through a network of multi-level social mobilizers. This paper assesses the effects of this community-level SM (CLSM) intervention on the extent of community engagement and performance of polio Supplementary Immunization Activity campaigns (SIAs) during the post-polio-endemic period (i.e., from March 2012 to September 2017). Methods This study followed a quasi-experimental design. We used secondary, cluster-level data from CGPP India’s Management Information System, including 52 SIAs held from January 2008 to September 2017, covering 56 blocks from 12 districts of UP. We computed various indicators and performed Generalized Estimating Equations based analysis to assess the statistical significance of differences between the outcomes of intervention and non-intervention areas. We then estimated the effects of the SM intervention using Interrupted time-series, Difference-in-Differences and Synthetic Control Methods. Finally, we estimated the population influenced by the intervention. Results The performance of polio SIAs changed over time, with the intervention areas having better outcomes than non-intervention areas. The absence of CLSM intervention during the post-polio-endemic period would have negatively impacted the outcomes of polio SIAs. The percentage of children vaccinated at polio SIA booths, percentage of ‘X’ houses (i.e., households with unvaccinated children or households with out-of-home/out-of-village children or locked households) converted to ‘P’ (i.e., households with all vaccinated children or households without children eligible for vaccination), and percentage of resistant houses converted to polio acceptors would have gone down by 14.1 (Range: 12.7 to 15.5), 6.3 (Range: 5.2 to 7.3) and 7.4 percentage points, respectively. Community engagement would have reduced by 7.2 (Range: 6.6 to 7.7) percentage points. Conclusions The absence of CLSM intervention would have significantly decreased the level of community engagement and negatively impacted the performance of polio SIAs of the post-polio-endemic period. The study provides evidence of an added value of deploying additional human resource dedicated to social mobilization to achieve desired vaccination outcomes in hard-to-reach or programmatically challenging areas.

Summary box As the current global COVID-19 pandemic makes clear, data are power. Now more than ever it is important to reflect on who holds that power and how well it is used to improve global health. This was also on the minds of a group of global health experts at the onset of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In 2015, after a first meeting in Kirkland, USA, these experts delivered a call to action for a robust maternal, newborn and child health (MNCH) measurement system that could effectively measure and monitor the coverage of high-impact healthcare while also improving capacity to track universal health coverage for women and children.1 That call to action defined five principles. There should be (1) a core focus on a set of indicators; (2) data relevant to countries; (3) measurement innovations; (4) embedded equity analysis and (5) global leadership. Five years later, in 2020, MNCH measurement experts reconvened in Nairobi, Kenya, to reflect on progress against …

Diarrheal disease remains a leading cause of child death globally, especially in low and middle-income countries. Use of oral rehydration solution (ORS) for treatment of diarrhea in children, a very cost-effective intervention, remains below 50% in many countries. Here we use a multi-level longitudinal model to reveal important predictors of ORS use at the national level. The findings suggest that increasing government effectiveness along with increased implementation and affordability of community-based health programs can lead to substantial increases in ORS use. Key informant interviews with national health leaders in countries that significantly improved ORS coverage support these quantitative findings.

Current methods for measuring intervention coverage for reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health and nutrition (RMNCH+N) do not adequately capture the quality of services delivered. Without information on the quality of care, it is difficult to assess whether services provided will result in expected health improvements. We propose a six-step coverage framework, starting from a target population to (1) service contact, (2) likelihood of services, (3) crude coverage, (4) quality-adjusted coverage, (5) user-adherence-adjusted coverage and (6) outcome-adjusted coverage. We support our framework with a comprehensive review of published literature on effective coverage for RMNCH+N interventions since 2000. We screened 8103 articles and selected 36 from which we summarised current methods for measuring effective coverage and computed the gaps between ‘crude’ coverage measures and quality-adjusted measures. Our review showed considerable variability in data sources, indicator definitions and analytical approaches for effective coverage measurement. Large gaps between crude coverage and quality-adjusted coverage levels were evident, ranging from an average of 10 to 38 percentage points across the RMNCH+N interventions assessed. We define effective coverage as the proportion of individuals experiencing health gains from a service among those who need the service, and distinguish this from other indicators along a coverage cascade that make quality adjustments. We propose a systematic approach for analysis along six steps in the cascade. Research to date shows substantial drops in effective delivery of care across these steps, but variation in methods limits comparability of the results. Advancement in coverage measurement will require standardisation of effective coverage terminology and improvements in data collection and methodological approaches.

Achieving a high percentage of vaccination coverage with polio vaccine, while necessary, is not sufficient to eliminate or eradicate polio. The existence of pockets of under-vaccinated children has allowed outbreaks of polio in countries that have achieved high levels of vaccination coverage and in countries with no cases for many years. In a literature review, 35 articles were identified that described factors associated with missed vaccination in mass immunization campaigns. An annotated bibliography was developed for each article; these were then coded using the AnSWR program, and codes were organized into three larger thematic categories. These thematic areas were: (a) organization and implementation of mass campaigns; (b) population characteristics; and (c) knowledge and practices of caretakers. If these factors were geographically clustered, it was suspected that these clusters might have higher likelihood of becoming pockets of unvaccinated children. Immunization programme managers can target resources to identify if such clusters exist. If so, they can then ensure supervision of vaccination efforts in those sites and take further action, if indicated, to prevent or mitigate pockets of unvaccinated children.

Background There exists little agreement on the choice of indicators to be used to assess the impact of humanitarian assistance. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami led to significant mortality and displacement in Aceh Province, Indonesia, as well as a nearly unprecedented humanitarian response. Six years after the disaster we conducted an impact assessment of humanitarian services rendered in Aceh using a comprehensive set of rights-based indicators and sought to determine modifiable predictors of improved outcomes in disaster-affected households. Methods A sample of 597 returned and non-returned households in Banda Aceh and Meulaboh was selected using a multistage stratified cluster survey design. We employed principle components analysis and the Framework on Durable Solutions for Internally Displaced Persons to develop a comprehensive and rights-based approach to humanitarian impact measurement using multivariate regression models. Results The attainment of durable solutions was equivalent in both returned households 100.1 [CI] 97.63-102.5) and households that integrated elsewhere (99.37 [CI] 95.43-103.3, P = 0.781). Standard of living as well as education and health facility satisfaction increased significantly whereas monthly income decreased after the tsunami, from 2585241 IDR ([CI] 2357202–2813279 IDR) to 2038963 ([CI] 1786627–2291298 IDR, P

A cohort of 125 chemical workers was established in 1963 to investigate an epidemic of lung cancer caused by industrial exposure to chloromethyl ethers (CME). Ninety-three of the men were exposed to CME, and approximate estimates of exposure were made. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for lung cancer, based on Philadelphia city rates. Over 30 years of observation, 25 of 67 deaths were due to lung cancer, with a dose-response relationship. SMRs were elevated only among 59 moderately and heavily exposed workers, peaked at 23.1 in the first decade, and then declined to 7.4 and 7.9 in later decades. The mean latency period from onset of exposure to death was 21 to 25 years and was inversely related to cumulative exposure. Three of 12 heavily exposed cases occurred in nonsmokers. Small cell carcinoma accounted for 80% of the moderately and heavily exposed cases.

Background Studies that have looked at the effect of polio eradication efforts in India on routine immunization programs have provided mixed findings. One polio eradication project, funded by US Agency for International Development (USAID) and carried out by the CORE Group Polio Project (CGPP) in the state of Uttar Pradesh of India, has included the strengthening of routine immunization systems as a core part of its polio eradication strategy. This paper explores the performance of routine immunization services in the CGPP intervention areas concurrent with intensive polio eradication activities. The paper also explores determinants of routine immunization performance such as caretaker characteristics and CGPP activities to strengthen routine immunization services. Methods We conduct secondary data analysis of the latest project household immunization survey in 2011 and compare these findings to reports of past surveys in the CGPP program area and at the Uttar Pradesh state level (as measured by children’s receipt of DPT vaccinations). This is done to judge if there is any evidence that routine immunization services are being disrupted. We also model characteristics of survey respondents and respondents’ exposure to CGPP, communication activities against their children’s receipt of key vaccinations in order to identify determinants of routine immunization coverage. Results Routine immunization coverage has increased between the first survey (2005 for state level estimates, 2008 for the CGPP program) and the latest (2011 for both state level and CGPP areas), as measured by children’s receipt of DPT vaccination. This increase occurred concurrent with polio eradication efforts intensive enough to result in interruption of transmission. In addition, a mothers’ exposure to specific communication materials, her religion and education were associated with whether or not her children receive one or more doses of DPT. Conclusions A limitation of the analysis is the absence of a controlled comparison. It is possible routine immunization coverage would have increased even more in the absence of polio eradication efforts. At the same time, however, there is no evidence that routine immunization services were disrupted by polio eradication efforts. Targeted health communications are helpful in improving routine immunization performance. Strategies to address other determinants of routine immunization, such as religion and education, are also needed to maximize coverage.

In a recent commentary, Infante et al. [1994] summarized some of the epidemiologic literature on the relationship between glass wool and lung cancer. They concluded that this material is carcinogenic for the lung in humans. A review of the commentary in comparison with the original papers covered reveals that their analysis was incomplete and characterized by selection bias. A more careful examination of the literature cited and other relevant publications shows that the data cited by Infante et al. are subject to the errors of chance and confounding and that the association when present is inconsistent, weak, and lacks a dose-response relationship. Therefore, a conclusion of causality cannot be justified.

Quality improvement programs often pose unique project management challenges, including multi-faceted interventions that evolve over time and teams with few resources for data collection. Thus, it is difficult to report methods and results. We developed a program to reduce central line-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs) and improve safety culture in intensive care units (ICUs). As previously reported, we worked with 103 Michigan ICUs to implement this program, and they achieved a 66% reduction in the median CLABSI rate and sustained the reduction. This success prompted the spread of this program to Spain, England, Peru and across the USA. We developed a logical framework approach (LFA) to guide project management; to incorporate the cultural, clinical and capacity variations among countries; and to ensure early alignment of the project's design and evaluation. In this paper, we describe the use of the LFA to systematically design, implement and evaluate large-scale, multi-faceted, quality improvement programs.

Background Comparisons between refugees receiving health care in settlement-based facilities and persons living in host communities have found that refugees have better health outcomes. However, data that compares utilization of health services between refugees and the host population, and across refugee settlements, countries and regions is limited. The paper will address this information gap. The analysis in this paper uses data from the United Nations High Commissioner of Refugees (UNHCR) Health Information System (HIS). Methods Data about settlement populations and the use of outpatient health services were exported from the UNHCR health information system database. Tableau Desktop was used to explore the data. STATA was used for data cleaning and statistical analysis. Differences in various indicators of the use of health services by region, gender, age groups, and status (host national vs. refugee population) were analyzed for statistical significance using generalized estimating equation models that adjusted for correlated data within refugee settlements over time. Results Eighty-one refugee settlements were included in this study and an average population of 1.53 million refugees was receiving outpatient health services between 2008 and 2009. The crude utilization rate among refugees is 2.2 visits per person per year across all settlements. The refugee utilization rate in Asia (3.5) was higher than in Africa on average (1.8). Among refugees, females have a statistically significant higher utilization rate than males (2.4 visits per person per year vs. 2.1). The proportion of new outpatient attributable to refugees is higher than that attributable to host nationals. In the Asian settlements, only 2% outpatient visits, on average, were attributable to host community members. By contrast, in Africa, the proportion of new outpatient (OPD) visits by host nationals was 21% on average; in many Ugandan settlements, the proportion of outpatient visits attributable to host community members was higher than that for refugees. There was no statistically significant difference between the size of the male and female populations across refugee settlements. Across all settlements reporting to the UNHCR database, the percent of the refugee population that was less than five years of age is 16% on average. Conclusions The availability of a centralized database of health information across UNHCR-supported refugee settlements is a rich resource. The SPHERE standard for emergencies of 1-4 visits per person per year appears to be relevant for Asia in the post-emergency phase, but not for Africa. In Africa, a post-emergency standard of 1-2 visits per person per year should be considered. Although it is often assumed that the size of the female population in refugee settlements is higher than males, we found no statistically significant difference between the size of the male and female populations in refugee settlements overall. Another assumption---that the under-fives make up 20% of the settlement population during the emergency phase---does not appear to hold for the post-emergency phase; under-fives made up about 16% of refugee settlement populations.

The existence of pockets of under-vaccinated persons has allowed outbreaks of disease in countries that have achieved high levels of vaccination coverage. A field-based methodology--GAPS (Geographic Assessment of Planning and Services)--was developed to predict, in advance of an immunization campaign, the sites of which are most likely to have a pocket of unvaccinated persons and then use this information to improve planning, supervision, and evaluation of the campaign. At this time, there have been two applications of GAPS (Nepal and Ethiopia). The purpose of this paper was to evaluate these two applications of GAPS and make recommendations regarding its future use. Structured, expert interviews were conducted with at least three campaign organizers to evaluate each application of GAPS using purposive sampling. An evaluation of an individual campaign was considered positive when at least two of the three campaign organizers considered GAPS to be useful and worthwhile. The three campaign organizers interviewed following the GAPS application in Ethiopia responded that GAPS was useful and worth the effort. In Nepal, all four campaign organizers responded that GAPS was useful and worth the effort. Some suggestions for improvement were also identified. Although this evaluation was limited in the number of applications evaluated, GAPS appears to have promise as a practical method to help improve the quality of mass immunization campaigns. And even if no pockets of unvaccinated persons are found, the method may serve as a rapid quality-check of administrative estimates of coverage. Further applications in different settings are needed to confirm these findings or under what circumstances GAPS might best be used. GAPS may also be considered for improving other types of health campaigns, such as distribution of insecticide-treated bednets, vitamin A capsules, and deworming medications.

To evaluate a potential causal relationship between asbestos exposure and the risk of colorectal cancer, 30 cohort studies published in English were reviewed and analyzed. The latest report of each cohort up through 1993 was used. The outcome measure was the standardized morbidity (incidence) or mortality ratio (SMR). Summary SMRs were examined by type of cohort registration, type of work, type of asbestos, latency from onset of exposure to period of risk, and incidence only. The overall relative risk was 0.99 for all 30 studies. The evidence does not meet the important criteria for a judgment of causality because the relative risk is not consistently elevated, weak in the two studies with a statistically significant elevation of SMR, and limited data do not support a dose-response relationship.

OBJECTIVE—To assess the evidence for the hypothesis that lung cancer has a predilection for the lower lobes in workers with asbestosis. METHOD—A review of the available literature with relevant information. RESULTS—Six published reports were analysed. In four studies limited to series of cases with diagnoses of asbestosis, three showed lower lobe predominance of lung cancer whereas the fourth study included cases in which the radiographic readings did not meet the usual criterion of profusion for asbestosis. One cohort study showed lower lobe predominance; the other reported only 33% lower lobe cancers compared with 20% in unexposed controls. CONCLUSION—There is some support for the hypothesis but more studies are needed. Keywords: asbestos; asbestosis; lung cancer

The growth rate of lung cancer may be described by an exponential model in which the volume doubling time, or growth rate, is constant. The doubling time may vary from case to case by an order of magnitude so it is probably the most important factor in the natural history of the disease. While some aspects are uncertain, the exponential model seems to be reasonably valid because it is coherent with what we already know about the course of the disease. It helps explain the long interval between onset of carcinogen exposure and clinical manifestation, the reversibility of risk after cessation of smoking, the results of periodic roentgenographic screening, and the variability of prognosis. As a result, the exponential model has certain medicolegal implications.

In recent years a decline in the rate of increase in male lung cancer mortality has led some observers to predict that this disease epidemic will soon peak and then ebb. This prediction is based on...

The Philadelphia Tuberculosis and Health Association surveyed 2,825 adults with a 70-mm photofluorogram, a questionnaire, and ventilatory tests. A selected sample of 71 individuals was carefully evaluated in one of four pulmonary physiology laboratories by history, physical examination, and a battery of pulmonary function tests to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the screen. In screening for chronic obstructive lung diseases, if this was defined as expectoration and/or a forced vital capacity below 62% of predicted by Baldwin standards and/or a one-second forced expiratory volume below 66% of observed vital capacity, the sensitivity was 79% and specificity was 72%, If the one-second forced expiratory volume below 66% was used alone, the sensitivity was only 42%, but the specificity was 96%.

(1967). The Gas Phase Toxicity of Cigarette Smoke for Paramecium. Archives of Environmental Health: An International Journal: Vol. 14, No. 5, pp. 682-686.

Three prospective studies of lung cancer In older men are compared: the Philadelphia Pulmonary Neoplasm Research Project, the North West London study, and the South London study. Comparison of survival in men with lung cancer is difficult because of differences in methods, materials, and analyses. However, despite semiannual roentgenographic screening, the prognosis of lung cancer in older men remains poor. The results in London were slightly better than might be expected without screening. The results in Philadelphia were not as favorable. The differences was due primarily to the fact that the lung cancer patients in Philadelphia were older than those in London.

In a prospective study of 51 men who had moderate to heavy cumulative exposure to chloromethyl ethers, 11 developed lung cancer in a ten-year perod. The risk was higher in men who were not smoking cigarettes at the start of observation than in those who were. This difference was even more impressive when examined in relation to the risks of lung cancer by smoking habit in the general population. The data suggest that continued cigarette smoking entailed a factor which partially inhibited the carcinogenic effect of chloromethyl ethers.

Beginning in 1963 a 10-year prospective study of 125 chemical workers was carried out by periodic screening for five years and follow-up for an additional five years. Eighty-eight men were exposed to chloromethyl ethers in varying cumulative doses estimates by retrospective rating. They were divided into three groups by degree of exposure. Age distribution was similar in all groups but the proportion of current heavy cigarette smokers at the start of observation decreased with increasing chemical exposure. The prevalence of chronic cough showed a dose-response relationship to both smoking and chemical exposure. The end-expiratory flow rate was below 60% of predicted in about one-third of the exposed men compared to only 6% of unexposed men and the frequency of such low rates was dose-related to cigarette smoking. During the five-year periodic screening study the prevalence of chronic cough decreased and the prevalence of dyspnea increased while chemical exposure was falling. The 10-year incidence of lung cancer was dose-related to chemical exposure but inversely related to smoking habits. All cancers were small-cell carcinomas, occurred in men younger than 55, and had an induction-latent period of 10 to 24 years. The 10-year mortality rate in this group of workers was 2.7 times expected and lung cancer accounted for the excess number of deaths.

(1964). The Sickle Cell Trait in Relation to Infection. Archives of Environmental Health: An International Journal: Vol. 8, No. 3, pp. 480-482.

The effect of cigarette smoke gas phase on the survival time of Paramecium aurelia was studied with an intermittent method of exposure. This method simulated human smoking and revealed the ability of activated charcoal to reduce the toxic effect of gas phase.

(1964). Effect of Tobacco Smoke Solutions on Paramecium. Archives of Environmental Health: An International Journal: Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 500-504.

(1965). The Toxicity of Tobacco Smoke Solutions for Paramecium. Archives of Environmental Health: An International Journal: Vol. 10, No. 6, pp. 904-909.

Background Organizations working in conflict-affected areas have a need to monitor and evaluate their programs, however this is often difficult due to the logistical challenges of conflict areas. Lot quality assurance sampling may be a suitable method of assessing programs in these situations. Methods We conducted a secondary data analysis of information collected during Medair’s routine program management functions. Medair’s service area in West Darfur, Sudan was divided into seven supervisory areas. Using the available population information, a sampling frame was developed and interviews were conducted from randomly selected caretakers of children in each supervisory area every six months over 19 months. A survey instrument with questions related to key indicators for immunizations and maternal, newborn, and child health was used for the interviews. Based on Medair’s goals for each indicator, decision rules were calculated for the indicators; these decision rules determined which supervisory areas and indicators performed adequately in each assessment period. Pearson’s chi-squared tests, adjusted for the survey design using STATA “svy: tab” commands, were used to detect overall differences in coverage in this analysis. Results The coverage of tetanus toxoid vaccination among pregnant women increased from 47.2 to 69.7 % (p value = 0.046), and births attended by a skilled health professional increased from 35.7 to 52.7 % (p value = 0.025) from the first to last assessment periods. Measles vaccinations declined from 72.0 to 54.1 % (p value = 0.046). The estimated coverage for the proportion of women receiving a postpartum dose of vitamin A (54.7 to 61.3 %, p value = 0.44); pregnant women receiving a clean delivery kit (54.6 to 47.1 %, p value = 0.49); and pentavalent vaccinations (49.7 to 42.1 %, p value = 0.28) did not significantly change. Conclusions Lot quality assurance sampling was a feasible method for Medair staff to evaluate and optimize primary health programs in a conflict-affected area. Medair managers were able to collect, analyze, and disseminate data to staff alongside the routine work of the organization. These results suggest LQAS may be used in other complex humanitarian emergencies in which there are logistical challenges and limited resources.