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Biomarkers to identify ICU COVID-19 patients at high risk for mortality are urgently needed for therapeutic care and management. Here we found plasma levels of the glycolysis byproduct methylglyoxal (MG) were 4.4-fold higher in ICU patients upon admission that later died (n = 33), and 1.7-fold higher in ICU patients that survived (n = 32),compared to uninfected controls (n = 30). The increased MG in patients that died correlated inversely with the levels of the MG-degrading enzyme glyoxalase-1 (r2 = − 0.50), and its co-factor glutathione (r2 = − 0.63), and positively with monocytes (r2 = 0.29). The inflammation markers, SSAO (r2 = 0.52), TNF-α (r2 = 0.41), IL-1β (r2 = 0.25), CRP (r2 = 0.26) also correlated positively with MG. Logistic regression analysis provides evidence of a significant relationship between the elevated MG upon admission into ICU and death (P < 0.0001), with 42% of the death variability explained. From these data we conclude that elevated plasma MG on admission is a novel independent biomarker that predicts mortality in ICU COVID-19 patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]