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The Spanish region of Andalusia is the world-leading olive oil producer. Its olive-dominated landscapes are among the most biodiverse drylands of the globe and prospectively among the areas most affected by climate change. This analysis used physiologically based demographic modeling (PBDM) to assess the impact of climate change on the olive/olive fly system of Andalusia. The analysis was implemented on cloud computing, allowing PBDM models to be run from any computer connected to the internet, to interface with state-of-the-art climatic drivers, and to scale efficiently with increasing computational loads and user requests. Findings include that chilling required for olive blooming will decrease in large areas of the Andalusian provinces of Jaen, Cordoba, and Sevilla, with some areas not meeting the minimum chilling threshold and some accumulating no chilling by the end of the century under the high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario. Olive blooming will occur up to five weeks earlier in the Jaen, Cordoba, Sevilla, and Granada provinces, but olive yield is expected to increase or remain stable. Olive fly infestation will decrease with climate change, with infestations below the reference economic threshold of 4 % towards the end of the century in some areas under high GHG emission scenario. Measures to adapt Andalusian olive systems to climate change include: selecting olive cultivars with lower chilling requirements; implementing cover crops to enhance water use efficiency under increased CO2 concentration and uncertain precipitation projections; and targeting the spring generation of the fly and diversifying the olive landscape to reduce infestation levels.

Viticulturists developing adaptation strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change, which affects a grapevine’s physiology and wine typicity, can benefit from climate services. Climate services translate physically based variables, such as temperature and precipitation, into actionable, decision relevant bioclimatic indicators, such as Spring Rain, Heat Stress Days, and Warm Spell Duration. These bioclimatic indicators enable the mitigation of fungal diseases, specifically downy and powdery mildew, as well as sunburn. Accurate seasonal forecasts of these bioclimatic indicators can help farmers with viticulture, labor, and stock management, as well as improve the yield and value of wine-quality grapes. Seasonal forecasts of these indicators are available on the MED-GOLD project’s dashboard. This study determines an annual service fee to access these forecasts on the dashboard. The annual fee accounts for the seasonal forecast accuracy over part of the Douro wine region of Portugal, as well as the potential savings and losses of micro (⩽1 ha) holding grape growers. The revenue generated from this climate service fee exceeds the cost of dashboard maintenance by nearly 10 times, even with a fee which is less than half of the potential savings of the micro holding farmer.

MED-GOLD was a 54-months research and innovation project, whose main aim was to co-develop climate services for three staples of the Mediterranean food system, namely grapes, olives and durum wheat. This paper describes the methodology adopted for the co-development of the pilot climate service for the wine sector, focusing on the Douro Wine Region in northern Portugal.In the first step, the MED-GOLD industrial partner SOGRAPE identified key decisions and users’ needs for the wine sector in the Douro region by involving managers from their own vineyards in that region. From this information, the relevant bioclimatic indicators (and associated essential climate variables) were selected. Afterwards, two compound risk indices, the Sanitary and Heat Risk indices, were introduced as a combination of some of the aforementioned bioclimatic indicators. This methodological work was validated against the empirical climate characterization for the region of interest, of several ‘bad’ and ‘good’ years chosen by users according to their recollections of grape and wine production outcomes, namely quality and yields. In this paper, the overall strategy for selection of these years is presented. The components of the service based on historical climate, seasonal predictions and longer-term climate projections are described along with the visual interface developed: the MED-GOLD Dashboard, an interactive tool that displays detailed historical climate data, seasonal predictions and climate projections. The Dashboard consists of an ICT platform with a map-based user-focused front end to aid easy access to and manipulation of the data. The Dashboard was iteratively co-designed with the users to ensure their needs were met.

Climate services are one of the tools that can support the agriculture sector to address the impacts of climate change on agricultural production systems, not only considering climatic aspects but also social needs. This work describes the knowledge co-production journey of the EU-funded project MED-GOLD to create an end-to-end climate service for wine sector users. In this work, co-production is understood as an iterative, interactive and collaborative process among an interdisciplinary group of scientists and users that were engaged, involved, and empowered. The co-production process included activities to raise awareness on the vulnerability of grape and wine production to climate change, exchange knowledge between climate service providers and users, and co-develop customised climate services, such as the MED-GOLD Dashboard. Lessons learned are that repeated interaction between scientists and users allow to better frame research questions, jointly decide how to address these questions, and test the outcomes with feedback from real-world decision-makers. Furthermore, having a user who co-developed the service and helped assess its added value was key to ensure that it could truly inform decision-making needs and to promote its broader uptake by the wine sector community. Although the MED-GOLD Dashboard constitutes the most tangible result of this collaboration, the outcomes of co-production also encompass the joint learning process, the shared sense of ownership, and the co-creation of new knowledge between scientists and stakeholders. Nevertheless, further research will be needed to understand how the knowledge coproduced with a single user can be scaled up to users with other profiles and requirements.