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Background: A recent paper by Tomasetti and Vogelstein (Science 2015 347 78-81) suggested that the variation in natural cancer risk was largely explained by the total number of stem-cell divisions, and that most cancers arose by chance. They proposed an extra-risk score as way of distinguishing the effects of the stochastic, replicative component of cancer risk from other causative factors, specifically those due to the external environment and inherited mutations., Objectives: We tested the hypothesis raised by Tomasetti and Vogelstein by assessing the degree of correlation of stem cell divisions and their extra-risk score with radiation- and tobacco-associated cancer risk., Methods: We fitted a variety of linear and log-linear models to data on stem cell divisions per year and cumulative stem cell divisions over lifetime and natural cancer risk, some taken from the paper of Tomasetti and Vogelstein, augmented using current US lifetime cancer risk data, and also radiation- and tobacco-associated cancer risk., Results: The data assembled by Tomasetti and Vogelstein, as augmented here, are inconsistent with the power-of-age relationship commonly observed for cancer incidence and the predictions of a multistage carcinogenesis model, if one makes the strong assumption of homogeneity of numbers of driver mutations across cancer sites. Analysis of the extra-risk score and various other measures (number of stem cell divisions per year, cumulative number of stem cell divisions over life) considered by Tomasetti and Vogelstein suggests that these are poorly predictive of currently available estimates of radiation- or smoking-associated cancer risk-for only one out of 37 measures or logarithmic transformations thereof is there a statistically significant correlation (p<0.05) with radiation- or smoking-associated risk., Conclusions: The data used by Tomasetti and Vogelstein are in conflict with predictions of a multistage model of carcinogenesis, under the assumption of homogeneity of numbers of driver mutations across most cancer sites. Their hypothesis that if the extra-risk score for a tissue type is high then one would expect that environmental factors would play a relatively more important role in that cancer's risk is in conflict with the lack of correlation between the extra-risk score and other stem-cell proliferation indices and radiation- or smoking-related cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Many high-dose groups demonstrate increased leukaemia risks, with risk greatest following childhood exposure; risks at low/moderate doses are less clear. METHODS: We conducted a pooled analysis of the major radiation-associated leukaemias (acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) with/without the inclusion of myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML), acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL)) in ten childhood-exposed groups, including Japanese atomic bomb survivors, four therapeutically irradiated and five diagnostically exposed cohorts, a mixture of incidence and mortality data. Relative/absolute risk Poisson regression models were fitted. RESULTS: Of 365 cases/deaths of leukaemias excluding chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, there were 272 AML/CML/ALL among 310,905 persons (7,641,362 person-years), with mean active bone marrow (ABM) dose of 0.11 Gy (range 0-5.95). We estimated significant (P

BackgroundWhile there is a robust literature on environmental exposure to iodine-131 (131I) in childhood and adolescence and the risk of thyroid cancer and benign nodules, little is known about its effects on thyroid volume.MethodsTo assess the effect of 131I dose to the thyroid on the volume of the thyroid gland, we examined the data from the baseline screening of the Belarusian-American Cohort Study of residents of Belarus who were exposed to the Chernobyl fallout at ages ≤18 years. Thyroid dose estimates were based on individual thyroid activity measurements made shortly after the accident and dosimetric data from questionnaires obtained 10-15 years later at baseline screening. During baseline screening, thyroid gland volume was assessed from thyroid ultrasound measurements. The association between radiation dose and thyroid volume was modeled using linear regression where radiation dose was expressed with power terms to address non-linearity. The model was adjusted for attained age, sex, and place of residence, and their modifying effects were examined.ResultsThe analysis was based on 10,703 subjects. We found a statistically significant positive association between radiation dose and thyroid volume (P

There is limited evidence that non-leukaemic lymphoid malignancies are radiogenic. As radiation-related cancer risks are generally higher after childhood exposure, we analysed pooled lymphoid neoplasm data in nine cohorts first exposed to external radiation aged  0.4). In six cohorts with estimates of lymphatic tissue dose, borderline significant increased risks (p-trend = 0.02-0.07) were observed for NHL + CLL, NHL, and CLL. Further pooled epidemiological studies are needed with longer follow-up, central outcome review by expert hematopathologists, and assessment of radiation doses to lymphoid tissues.

A meta-analytic summary effect estimate often is calculated as an inverse-variance-weighted average of study-specific estimates of association. The variances of published estimates of association often are derived from their associated confidence intervals under assumptions typical of Wald-type statistics, such as normality of the parameter. However, in some research areas, such as radiation epidemiology, epidemiological results typically are obtained by fitting linear relative risk models, and associated likelihood-based confidence intervals are often asymmetric; consequently, reasonable estimates of variances associated with study-specific estimates of association may be difficult to infer from the standard approach based on the assumption of a Wald-type interval. Here, a novel method is described for meta-analysis of published results from linear relative risk models that uses a parametric transformation of published results to improve on the normal approximation used to assess confidence intervals. Using simulations, it is illustrated that the meta-analytic summary obtained using the proposed approach yields less biased summary estimates, with better confidence interval coverage, than the summary obtained using the more classical approach to meta-analysis. The proposed approach is illustrated using a previously published example of meta-analysis of epidemiological findings regarding circulatory disease following exposure to low-level ionizing radiation.

Background: Although childhood exposure to radioactive iodine-131 (I-131) is an established risk factor for thyroid cancer, evidence for an association with thyroid nodules is less clear. The objective of this study is to evaluate the association between childhood I-131 exposure and prevalence of ultrasound-detected thyroid nodules overall and by nodule histology/cytology (neoplastic/suspicious/non-neoplastic), size (<10 mm/≥10 mm), and number (single/multiple). Methods: This is a cross-sectional study of radiation dose (mean = 0.53 gray, range: 0.0003–31 gray) and screen-detected thyroid nodules conducted in 1998–2000 (median population age 21.5 years) in a cohort of 13,243 residents of Ukraine who were under 18 years at the time of the Chornobyl accident on April 26, 1986. Excess odds ratios per gray (excess odds ratio [EOR]/Gy) and confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression. Results: Among 13,078 eligible individuals, we identified 358 (2.7%) with at least one thyroid nodule. Significantly increased dose–response associations were found for all nodules and nodule groups with doses <5 Gy except individuals with non-neoplastic nodules. Among individuals with doses <5 Gy, the EOR/Gy for neoplastic nodules (5.35; CI: 2.19–15.5) was significantly higher than for non-neoplastic nodules (0.24; CI: 0.07–0.74), but the EOR/Gy did not vary by nodule size or number. Conclusions: Childhood exposure to I-131 is associated with an increased risk of thyroid nodules detected 12–14 years following exposure, and the risk for neoplastic nodules is higher than for non-neoplastic nodules. Analyses of incident thyroid nodules may help clarify dose–response patterns by nodule characteristics and provide insights into thyroid nodule etiology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ContextAlthough radiation exposure is an important predictor of thyroid cancer on diagnosis of a thyroid nodule, the relationship between childhood radiation exposure and thyroid nodules has not been comprehensively evaluated.ObjectiveTo examine the association between internal I-131 thyroid dose and thyroid nodules in young adults exposed during childhood.Design, setting, and participantsIn this cross-sectional study, we screened residents of Belarus aged ≤18 years at the time of the Chernobyl nuclear accident for thyroid disease (median age, 21 years) with thyroid palpation, ultrasonography, blood/urine analysis, and medical follow-up when appropriate. Eligible participants (N = 11,421) had intact thyroid glands and doses based on direct individual thyroid activity measurements.Main outcome measuresExcess odds ratios per Gray (EOR/Gy, scaled at age 5 years at exposure) for any thyroid nodule and for nodules grouped by cytology/histology, diameter size, and singularity.ResultsRisk of any thyroid nodule increased significantly with I-131 dose and, for a given dose, with younger age at exposure. The EOR/Gy (95% confidence intervals) for neoplastic nodules (3.82; 0.87 to 15.52) was significantly higher than for nonneoplastic nodules (0.32;

The recently demonstrated radiation-induction of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) raises the question as to whether the amount of radiation exposure influences any of the clinical characteristics of the disease. We evaluated the relationship between bone marrow radiation doses and clinical characteristics and survival of 79 CLL cases diagnosed during 1986-2006 in a cohort of 110 645 male workers who participated in the cleanup work of the Chornobyl nuclear accident in Ukraine in 1986. All diagnoses were confirmed by an independent International Hematology Panel. Patients were followed up to the date of death or end of follow-up on 31 October 2010. The median age at diagnosis was 57 years. Median bone marrow dose was 22.6 milligray (mGy) and was not associated with time between exposure and clinical diagnosis of CLL (latent period), age, peripheral blood lymphocyte count or clinical stage of disease in univariate and multivariate analyses. Latent period was significantly shorter among those older at first exposure, smokers and those with higher frequency of visits to the doctor prior to diagnosis. A significant increase in the risk of death with increasing radiation dose was observed (p = 0.03, hazard ratio = 2.38, 95% confidence interval: 1.11,5.08 comparing those with doses ≥22 mGy to doses

High-dose ionizing radiation is associated with circulatory disease. Risks from lower-dose fractionated exposures, such as from diagnostic radiation procedures, remain unclear. In this study we aimed to ascertain the relationship between fractionated low-to-medium dose radiation exposure and circulatory disease mortality in a cohort of 13,568 tuberculosis patients in Massachusetts, some with fluoroscopy screenings, between 1916 and 1961 and follow-up until the end of 2002. Analysis of mortality was in relation to cumulative thyroid (cerebrovascular) or lung (all other circulatory disease) radiation dose via Poisson regression. Over the full dose range, there was no overall radiation-related excess risk of death from circulatory disease (n = 3221; excess relative risk/Gy -0.023; 95% CI -0.067, 0.028; p = 0.3574). Risk was somewhat elevated in hypertensive heart disease (n = 89; excess relative risk/Gy 0.357; 95% CI -0.043, 1.030, p = 0.0907) and slightly decreased in ischemic heart disease (n = 1950; excess relative risk/Gy -0.077; 95% CI -0.130, -0.012; p = 0.0211). However, under 0.5 Gy, there was a borderline significant increasing trend for all circulatory disease (excess relative risk/Gy 0.345; 95% CI -0.032, 0.764; p = 0.0743) and for ischemic heart disease (excess relative risk/Gy 0.465; 95% CI, -0.032, 1.034, p = 0.0682). Pneumolobectomy increased radiation-associated risk (excess relative risk/Gy 0.252; 95% CI 0.024, 0.579). Fractionation of dose did not modify excess risk. In summary, we found no evidence of radiation-associated excess circulatory death risk overall, but there are indications of excess circulatory death risk at lower doses (

BackgroundThere are limited data on the histopathology of papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs) diagnosed in irradiated populations. We evaluated the associations between iodine-131 dose and the histopathological characteristics of post-Chernobyl PTCs, the changes in these characteristics over time, and their associations with selected somatic mutations.MethodsThis study included 115 PTCs diagnosed in a Ukrainian-American cohort (n=13,243) during prescreening and four successive thyroid screenings. Of these PTCs, 65 were subjected to somatic mutation profiling. All individuals were

Several studies reported an increased risk of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents exposed to radioactive iodines, chiefly iodine-131 ((131)I), after the 1986 Chornobyl (Ukrainian spelling) nuclear power plant accident. The risk of benign thyroid tumors following such radiation exposure is much less well known. We have previously reported a novel finding of significantly increased risk of thyroid follicular adenoma in a screening study of children and adolescents exposed to the Chornobyl fallout in Ukraine. To verify this finding, we analyzed baseline screening data from a cohort of 11,613 individuals aged ≤18 years at the time of the accident in Belarus (mean age at screening = 21 years). All participants had individual (131)I doses estimated from thyroid radioactivity measurements and were screened according to a standardized protocol. We found a significant linear dose response for 38 pathologically confirmed follicular adenoma cases. The excess odds ratio per gray of 2.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.41, 13.1) was similar in males and females but decreased significantly with increasing age at exposure (P < 0.01), with the highest radiation risks estimated for those exposed at

BackgroundRecent studies of children and adolescents who were exposed to radioactive iodine-131 (I-131) after the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident in Ukraine exhibited a significant dose-related increase in the risk of thyroid cancer, but the association of radiation doses with tumor histologic and morphologic features is not clear.MethodsA cohort of 11,664 individuals in Belarus who were aged ≤18 years at the time of the accident underwent 3 cycles of thyroid screening during 1997 to 2008. I-131 thyroid doses were estimated from individual thyroid activity measurements taken within 2 months after the accident and from dosimetric questionnaire data. Demographic, clinical, and tumor pathologic characteristics of the patients with thyroid cancer were analyzed using 1-way analysis of variance, chi-square tests or Fisher exact tests, and logistic regression.ResultsIn total, 158 thyroid cancers were identified as a result of screening. The majority of patients had T1a and T1b tumors (93.7%), with many positive regional lymph nodes (N1; 60.6%) but few distant metastases (M1;

The 1986 accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant remains the most serious nuclear accident in history, and excess thyroid cancers, particularly among those exposed to releases of iodine-131 remain the best-documented sequelae. Failure to take dose-measurement error into account can lead to bias in assessments of dose-response slope. Although risks in the Ukrainian-US thyroid screening study have been previously evaluated, errors in dose assessments have not been addressed hitherto. Dose-response patterns were examined in a thyroid screening prevalence cohort of 13,127 persons aged

Risks of noncancer causes of death, particularly cardiovascular disease, associated with exposures to high-dose ionizing radiation, are well known. Recent studies have reported excess risk in workers who are occupationally exposed to low doses at a low dose rate, but the risks of moderately fractionated exposures, such as occur during diagnostic radiation procedures, remain unclear. The Canadian Fluoroscopy Cohort Study includes 63,707 tuberculosis patients exposed to multiple fluoroscopic procedures in 1930-1952 and followed-up for death from noncancer causes in 1950-1987. We used a Poisson regression to estimate excess relative risk (ERR) per Gy of cumulative radiation dose to the lung (mean dose = 0.79 Gy; range, 0-11.60). The risk of death from noncancer causes was significantly lower in these subjects compared with the Canadian general population (P < 0.001). We estimated small, nonsignificant increases in the risk of death from noncancer causes with dose. We estimated an ERR/Gy of 0.176 (95% confidence interval: 0.011, 0.393) (n = 5,818 deaths) for ischemic heart disease (IHD) after adjustment for dose fractionation. A significant (P = 0.022) inverse dose fractionation effect in dose trends of IHD was observed, with the highest estimate of ERR/Gy for those with the fewest fluoroscopic procedures per year. Radiation-related risks of IHD decreased significantly with increasing time since first exposure and age at first exposure (both P < 0.05). This is the largest study of patients exposed to moderately fractionated low-to-moderate doses of radiation, and it provides additional evidence of increased radiation-associated risks of death from IHD, in particular, significantly increased radiation risks from doses similar to those from diagnostic radiation procedures. The novel finding of a significant inverse dose-fractionation association in IHD mortality requires further investigation.

Risks of noncancer causes of death, particularly cardiovascular disease, associated with exposures to high-dose ionizing radiation, are well known. Recent studies have reported excess risk in workers who are occupationally exposed to low doses at a low dose rate, but the risks of moderately fractionated exposures, such as occur during diagnostic radiation procedures, remain unclear. The Canadian Fluoroscopy Cohort Study includes 63,707 tuberculosis patients exposed to multiple fluoroscopic procedures in 1930-1952 and followed-up for death from noncancer causes in 1950-1987. We used a Poisson regression to estimate excess relative risk (ERR) per Gy of cumulative radiation dose to the lung (mean dose = 0.79 Gy; range, 0-11.60). The risk of death from noncancer causes was significantly lower in these subjects compared with the Canadian general population (P < 0.001). We estimated small, nonsignificant increases in the risk of death from noncancer causes with dose. We estimated an ERR/Gy of 0.176 (95% confidence interval: 0.011, 0.393) (n = 5,818 deaths) for ischemic heart disease (IHD) after adjustment for dose fractionation. A significant (P = 0.022) inverse dose fractionation effect in dose trends of IHD was observed, with the highest estimate of ERR/Gy for those with the fewest fluoroscopic procedures per year. Radiation-related risks of IHD decreased significantly with increasing time since first exposure and age at first exposure (both P < 0.05). This is the largest study of patients exposed to moderately fractionated low-to-moderate doses of radiation, and it provides additional evidence of increased radiation-associated risks of death from IHD, in particular, significantly increased radiation risks from doses similar to those from diagnostic radiation procedures. The novel finding of a significant inverse dose-fractionation association in IHD mortality requires further investigation.

BACKGROUND: Risks of most types of leukemia from exposure to acute high doses of ionizing radiation are well known, but risks associated with protracted exposures, as well as associations between radiation and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), are not clear. OBJECTIVES: We estimated relative risks of CLL and non-CLL from protracted exposures to low-dose ionizing radiation. METHODS: A nested case-control study was conducted in a cohort of 110,645 Ukrainian cleanup workers of the 1986 Chornobyl nuclear power plant accident. Cases of incident leukemia diagnosed in 1986-2006 were confirmed by a panel of expert hematologists/hematopathologists. Controls were matched to cases on place of residence and year of birth. We estimated individual bone marrow radiation doses by the Realistic Analytical Dose Reconstruction with Uncertainty Estimation (RADRUE) method. We then used a conditional logistic regression model to estimate excess relative risk of leukemia per gray (ERR/Gy) of radiation dose. RESULTS: We found a significant linear dose response for all leukemia [137 cases, ERR/Gy = 1.26 (95% CI: 0.03, 3.58]. There were nonsignificant positive dose responses for both CLL and non-CLL (ERR/Gy = 0.76 and 1.87, respectively). In our primary analysis excluding 20 cases with direct in-person interviews < 2 years from start of chemotherapy with an anomalous finding of ERR/Gy = -0.47 (95% CI: < -0.47, 1.02), the ERR/Gy for the remaining 117 cases was 2.38 (95% CI: 0.49, 5.87). For CLL, the ERR/Gy was 2.58 (95% CI: 0.02, 8.43), and for non-CLL, ERR/Gy was 2.21 (95% CI: 0.05, 7.61). Altogether, 16% of leukemia cases (18% of CLL, 15% of non-CLL) were attributed to radiation exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to low doses and to low dose-rates of radiation from post-Chornobyl cleanup work was associated with a significant increase in risk of leukemia, which was statistically consistent with estimates for the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Based on the primary analysis, we conclude that CLL and non-CLL are both radiosensitive.

BACKGROUND: Although high doses of ionizing radiation have long been linked to circulatory disease, evidence for an association at lower exposures remains controversial. However, recent analyses suggest excess relative risks at occupational exposure levels. OBJECTIVES: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize information on circulatory disease risks associated with moderate- and low-level whole-body ionizing radiation exposures. METHODS: We conducted PubMed/ISI Thomson searches of peer-reviewed papers published since 1990 using the terms radiation AND heart AND disease, OR radiation AND stroke, OR radiation AND circulatory AND disease. Radiation exposures had to be whole-body, with a cumulative mean dose of < 0.5 Sv, or at a low dose rate (< 10 mSv/day). We estimated population risks of circulatory disease from low-level radiation exposure using excess relative risk estimates from this meta-analysis and current mortality rates for nine major developed countries. RESULTS: Estimated excess population risks for all circulatory diseases combined ranged from 2.5%/Sv [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.8, 4.2] for France to 8.5%/Sv (95% CI: 4.0, 13.0) for Russia. CONCLUSIONS: Our review supports an association between circulatory disease mortality and low and moderate doses of ionizing radiation. Our analysis was limited by heterogeneity among studies (particularly for noncardiac end points), the possibility of uncontrolled confounding in some occupational groups by lifestyle factors, and higher dose groups (> 0.5 Sv) generally driving the observed trends. If confirmed, our findings suggest that overall radiation-related mortality is about twice that currently estimated based on estimates for cancer end points alone (which range from 4.2% to 5.6%/Sv for these populations).

One of the principal uncertainties when estimating population risk of late effects from epidemiological data is that few radiation-exposed cohorts have been followed up to extinction. Therefore, the relative risk model has often been used to estimate radiation-associated risk and to extrapolate risk to the end of life. Epidemiological studies provide evidence that children are generally at higher risk of cancer induction than adults for a given radiation dose. However, the strength of evidence varies by cancer site and questions remain about site-specific age at exposure patterns. For solid cancers, there is a large body of evidence that excess relative risk (ERR) diminishes with increasing age at exposure. This pattern of risk is observed in the Life Span Study (LSS) as well as in other radiation-exposed populations for overall solid cancer incidence and mortality and for most site-specific solid cancers. However, there are some disparities by endpoint in the degree of variation of ERR with exposure age, with some sites (e.g., colon, lung) in the LSS incidence data showing no variation, or even increasing ERR with increasing age at exposure. The pattern of variation of excess absolute risk (EAR) with age at exposure is often similar, with EAR for solid cancers or solid cancer mortality decreasing with increasing age at exposure in the LSS. We shall review the human data from the Japanese LSS cohort, and a variety of other epidemiological data sets, including a review of types of medical diagnostic exposures, also some radiobiological animal data, all bearing on the issue of variations of radiation late-effects risk with age at exposure and with attained age. The paper includes a summary of several oral presentations given in a Symposium on "Age effects on radiation response" as part of the 67th Annual Meeting of the Radiation Research Society, held virtually on 3–6 October 2021. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pregnancy and lactation may constitute radiation-sensitive reproductive periods due to rapid cell proliferation and concentration of radioiodine in the lactating breast. However, there are limited epidemiological data among women exposed to radiation during these periods.Methods: We examined incidence of breast cancer in a cohort of 3214 women who were pregnant and/or lactating within 2 months (26 April to 30 June 1986) of the Chernobyl accident and residing in contaminated regions of Belarus. There were 33 breast cancers identified through linkage with the Belarusian National Cancer Registry. Breast cancer rates among women who were either pregnant and/or lactating were compared with population rates by calculating standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusting for attained age, oblast, urban/rural residence and calendar year.Results: Among women who were lactating, we found a greater than 2-fold increased risk of breast cancer compared with the general population, SIR = 2.49 (95% CI: 1.55, 3.75). In contrast, women who were pregnant were not at increased risk (SIR = 0.84 95% CI: 0.46, 1.38). The SIR was highest in women who were exposed at a younger age and at the earliest time period since the accident, though stratified analyses had limited sample sizes.Conclusions: We found a significantly increased risk of breast cancer among women residing in contaminated areas of Belarus who were lactating at the time of the accident and may have had elevated exposure to radioiodine, when compared with the general population. Studies of breast cancer with individual radiation dose estimates among women exposed during lactation are warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Use of computed tomography (CT) scanning has increased substantially since its introduction in the 1990s. Several authors have reported increased risk of leukemia and brain tumors associated with radiation exposure from CT scans. However, reverse causation is a concern, particularly for brain cancer; in other words, the CT scan may have been taken because of preexisting cancer and therefore not have been a cause. We assessed the possibility of reverse causation via a simulation study focused on brain tumors, using a simplified version of the data structure for recent CT studies. Five-year–lagged and unlagged analyses implied an observed excess risk per scan up to 70% lower than the true excess risk per scan, particularly when more than 10% of persons with latent cancer had increased numbers of scans or the extra scanning rate after development of latent cancer was greater than 2 scans/year; less extreme values of these parameters imply little risk attenuation. Without a lag and when more than 20% of persons with latent cancer had increased scans—an arguably implausible scenario—the excess risk per scan was increased over the true excess risk per scan by up to 35%–40%. This study suggests that with a realistic lag, reverse causation results in downwardly biased risk, a result of induced classical measurement error, and is therefore unlikely to produce a spurious positive association between cancer and radiation dose from CT scans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: There are well-known correlations between high and moderate doses (>0.5 Gy) of ionizing radiation exposure and circulatory system damage, also between radiation and posterior subcapsular cataract. At lower dose correlations with circulatory disease are emerging in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in some occupationally exposed groups, and are still to some extent controversial. Heterogeneity in excess relative risks per unit dose in epidemiological studies at low (<0.1 Gy) and at low-moderate (>0.1 Gy, <0.5 Gy) doses may result from confounding and other types of bias, and effect modification by established risk factors. There is also accumulating evidence of excess cataract risks at lower dose and low dose rate in various cohorts. Other ocular endpoints, specifically glaucoma and macular degeneration have been little studied. In this paper, we review recent epidemiological findings, and also discuss some of the underlying radiobiology of these conditions. We briefly review some other types of mainly neurological nonmalignant disease in relation to radiation exposure. Conclusions: We document statistically significant excess risk of the major types of circulatory disease, specifically ischemic heart disease and stroke, in moderate- or low-dose exposed groups, with some not altogether consistent evidence suggesting dose-response non-linearity, particularly for stroke. However, the patterns of risk reported are not straightforward. We also document evidence of excess risks at lower doses/dose-rates of posterior subcapsular and cortical cataract in the Chernobyl liquidators, US Radiologic Technologists and Russian Mayak nuclear workers, with fundamentally linear dose-response. Nuclear cataracts are less radiogenic. For other ocular end-points, specifically glaucoma and macular degeneration there is very little evidence of effects at low doses; radiation-associated glaucoma has been documented only for doses >5Gy, and so has the characteristics of a tissue reaction. There is some evidence of neurological detriment following low-moderate dose (~0.1-0.2 Gy) radiation exposure in utero or in early childhood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The overall aim of this contribution to the 'Second Bill Morgan Memorial Special Issue' is to provide a high-level review of a recent report developed by a Committee for the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) titled 'Approaches for Integrating Information from Radiation Biology and Epidemiology to Enhance Low-Dose Health Risk Assessment'. It derives from previous NCRP Reports and Commentaries that provide the case for integrating data from radiation biology studies (available and proposed) with epidemiological studies (also available and proposed) to develop Biologically-Based Dose-Response (BBDR) models. In this review, it is proposed for such models to leverage the adverse outcome pathways (AOP) and key events (KE) approach for better characterizing radiation-induced cancers and circulatory disease (as the example for a noncancer outcome). The review discusses the current state of knowledge of mechanisms of carcinogenesis, with an emphasis on radiation-induced cancers, and a similar discussion for circulatory disease. The types of the various informative BBDR models are presented along with a proposed generalized BBDR model for cancer and a more speculative one for circulatory disease. The way forward is presented in a comprehensive discussion of the research needs to address the goal of enhancing health risk assessment of exposures to low doses of radiation. The use of an AOP/KE approach for developing a mechanistic framework for BBDR models of radiation- induced cancer and circulatory disease is considered to be a viable one based upon current knowledge of the mechanisms of formation of these adverse health outcomes and the available technical capabilities and computational advances. The way forward for enhancing low-dose radiation risk estimates will require there to be a tight integration of epidemiology data and radiation biology information to meet the goals of relevance and sensitivity of the adverse health outcomes required for overall health risk assessment at low doses and dose rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Exposure to ionizing radiation during childhood is a well-established risk factor for thyroid cancer. However, the genetic mechanisms of radiation-associated carcinogenesis remain not fully understood.Methods: In this study, we used targeted next-generation sequencing and RNA-Seq to study 65 papillary thyroid cancers (PTCs) from patients in the Ukrainian-American cohort with measurement-based iodine-131 (I-131) thyroid doses received as a result of the Chernobyl accident. We fitted linear regression models to evaluate differences in distribution of risk factors for PTC according to type of genetic alteration and logistic regression models to evaluate the I-131 dose response. All statistical tests were two-sided.Results: Driver mutations were identified in 96.9% of these thyroid cancers, including point mutations in 26.2% and gene fusions in 70.8% of cases. Novel driver fusions such as POR-BRAF, as well as STRN-ALK fusions that have not been implicated in radiation-associated cancer before, were found. The mean I-131 dose in cases with point mutations was 0.2 Gy (range = 0.013-1.05 Gy), statistically significantly lower than 1.4 Gy (range = 0.009-6.15 Gy) for cases with fusions (P < .001). No driver point mutations were found in tumors from individuals who received more than 1.1 Gy of radiation. Relative to tumors with point mutations, the proportion of tumors with gene fusions increased with radiation dose, reaching 87.8% among individuals exposed to 0.3 Gy or higher. With a limited study sample size, the estimated odds ratio at 1 Gy was 20.01 (95% confidence interval = 2.57 to 653.02, P < .001). In addition, after controlling for I-131 dose, we found higher odds ratios for gene fusion-positive PTCs associated with several specific demographic and geographic features.Conclusions: Our data provide support for a link between I-131 thyroid dose and generation of carcinogenic gene fusions, the predominant mechanism of thyroid cancer associated with radiation exposure from the Chernobyl accident. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To evaluate risk of thyroid neoplasia nearly 30 years following exposure to radioactive iodine (I-131) from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident, we conducted a fifth cycle of thyroid screening of the Ukrainian-American cohort during 2012-2015, following four previous screening cycles started in 1998. We identified 47 thyroid cancers (TC) and 33 follicular adenomas (FA) among 10,073 individuals who were <18 years at the time of the accident and had a mean I-131 dose of 0.62 Gy. We found a significant I-131 dose response for both TC and FA, with an excess odd ratio per Gy of 1.36 (95% CI: 0.39-4.15) and 2.03 (95% CI: 0.55-6.69), respectively. The excess risk of malignant and benign thyroid neoplasia persists nearly three decades after exposure and underscores the importance of continued follow-up of this cohort to characterize long-term pattern of I-131 risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the United Kingdom, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. OBJECTIVES: We compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. METHODS: Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. RESULTS: We observed significant (p ≤ 0.01) dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 15 and 5, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 20 and 10, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least a factor of 5 that of many other malignancies. CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding. CITATION: Little MP, McElvenny DM. 2017. Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors -- differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer. Environ Health Perspect 125:223-229; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP151 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exposure to therapeutic doses of ionizing radiation is associated with damage to the heart and coronary arteries. However, only recently have studies with high-quality individual dosimetry data allowed this risk to be quantified while also adjusting for concomitant chemotherapy, and medical and lifestyle risk factors. At lower levels of exposure the evidence is less clear. In this article I review radiation-associated risks of circulatory disease in groups treated with radiotherapy for malignant and non-malignant disease, and in occupationally- or environmentally-exposed groups receiving rather lower levels of radiation dose, also for medical diagnostic purposes. Results of a meta-analysis suggest that excess relative risks per unit dose for various types of heart disease do not exhibit statistically significant ( p > 0.2) heterogeneity between studies. Although there are no marked discrepancies between risks derived from the high-dose therapeutic and medical diagnostic studies and from the moderate/low dose occupational and environmental studies, at least for ischemic heart disease and stroke there are indications of larger risks per unit dose for lower dose rate and fractionated exposures. Risks for stroke and other types of circulatory disease are significantly more variable ( p < 0.0001), possibly resulting from confounding and effect-modification by well known (but unobserved) risk factors. Adjustment for any of mean dose, dose fractionation or age at exposure results in the residual heterogeneity for cerebrovascular disease becoming non-significant. The review provides strong evidence in support of a causal association between both low and high dose radiation exposure and most types of circulatory disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Background Flight attendants may have elevated breast cancer incidence (BCI). We evaluated BCI's association with cosmic radiation dose and circadian rhythm disruption among 6,093 female former U.S. flight attendants. Methods We collected questionnaire data on BCI and risk factors for breast cancer from 2002-2005. We conducted analyses to evaluate (i) BCI in the cohort compared to the U.S. population; and (ii) exposure-response relations. We applied an indirect adjustment to estimate whether parity and age at first birth (AFB) differences between the cohort and U.S. population could explain BCI that differed from expectation. Results BCI was elevated but may be explained by lower parity and older AFB in the cohort than among U.S. women. BCI was not associated with exposure metrics in the cohort overall. Significant positive associations with both were observed only among women with parity of three or more. Conclusions Future cohort analyses may be informative on the role of these occupational exposures and non-occupational risk factors. Am. J. Ind. Med. 58:252-266, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND In their previous analysis of papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs) from an Ukrainian-American cohort that was exposed to iodine-131 (131I) from the Chernobyl accident, the authors identified RET/PTC rearrangements and other driver mutations in 60% of tumors. METHODS In this study, the remaining mutation-negative tumors from that cohort were analyzed using RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) and reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction to identify novel chromosomal rearrangements and to characterize their relation with radiation dose. RESULTS The ETS variant gene 6 ( ETV6)-neurotrophin receptor 3 ( NTRK3) rearrangement ( ETV6- NTRK3) was identified by RNA-Seq in a tumor from a patient who received a high 131I dose. Overall, the rearrangement was detected in 9 of 62 (14.5%) post-Chernobyl PTCs and in 3 of 151 (2%) sporadic PTCs ( P = .019). The most common fusion type was between exon 4 of ETV6 and exon 14 of NTRK3. The prevalence of ETV6-NTRK3 rearrangement in post-Chernobyl PTCs was associated with increasing 131I dose, albeit at borderline significance ( P = .126). The group of rearrangement-positive PTCs ( ETV6-NTRK3, RET/PTC, PAX8-PPARγ) was associated with significantly higher dose response compared with the group of PTCs with point mutations ( BRAF, RAS; P < .001). In vitro exposure of human thyroid cells to 1 gray of 131I and γ-radiation resulted in the formation of ETV6-NTRK3 rearrangement at a rate of 7.9 × 10−6 cells and 3.0 × 10−6 cells, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The authors report the occurrence of ETV6- NTRK3 rearrangements in thyroid cancer and demonstrate that this rearrangement is significantly more common in tumors associated with exposure to 131I and has a borderline significant dose response. Moreover, ETV6-NTRK3 rearrangement can be directly induced in thyroid cells by ionizing radiation in vitro and, thus, may represent a novel mechanism of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Cancer 2014;120:799-807. © 2013 American Cancer Society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• There is mounting evidence of cancer risk from low dose radiation in childhood. • A systematic review was conducted of cancer after exposure in utero or childhood. • There were excess cancer risks associated with radiation exposure in childhood. • There were excess cancer risks associated with radiation exposure in utero. • Excess cancer risks were seen at levels approaching 0.02 Gy. The detrimental health effects associated with the receipt of moderate (0.1–1 Gy) and high (>1 Gy) acute doses of sparsely ionising radiation are well established from human epidemiological studies. There is accumulating direct evidence of excess risk of cancer in a number of populations exposed at lower acute doses or doses received over a protracted period. There is evidence that relative risks are generally higher after radiation exposures in utero or in childhood. We reviewed and summarised evidence from 60 studies of cancer or benign neoplasms following low- or moderate-level exposure in utero or in childhood from medical and environmental sources. In most of the populations studied the exposure was predominantly to sparsely ionising radiation, such as X-rays and gamma-rays. There were significant (p < 0.001) excess risks for all cancers, and particularly large excess relative risks were observed for brain/CNS tumours, thyroid cancer (including nodules) and leukaemia. Overall, the totality of this large body of data relating to in utero and childhood exposure provides support for the existence of excess cancer and benign neoplasm risk associated with radiation doses < 0.1 Gy, and for certain groups exposed to natural background radiation, to fallout and medical X-rays in utero , at about 0.02 Gy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this article we review health effects in offspring of human populations exposed as a result of radiotherapy and some groups exposed to chemotherapy. We also assess risks in offspring of other radiation-exposed groups, in particular those of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and occupationally and environmentally exposed groups. Experimental findings are also briefly surveyed. Animal and cellular studies tend to suggest that the irradiation of males, at least at high doses (mostly 1Gy and above), can lead to observable effects (including both genetic and epigenetic) in the somatic cells of their offspring over several generations that are not attributable to the inheritance of a simple mutation through the parental germline. However, studies of disease in the offspring of irradiated humans have not identified any effects on health. The available evidence therefore suggests that human health has not been significantly affected by transgenerational effects of radiation. It is possible that transgenerational effects are restricted to relatively short times post-exposure and in humans conception at short times after exposure is likely to be rare. Further research that may help resolve the apparent discrepancies between cellular/animal studies and studies of human health are outlined. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: Risks of most types of leukemia from exposure to acute high doses of ionizing radiation are well known, but risks associated with protracted exposures, as well as associations between radiation and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), are not clear. Objectives: We estimated relative risks of CLL and non-CLL from protracted exposures to low-dose ionizing radiation. Methods: A nested case-control study was conducted in a cohort of 110,645 Ukrainian cleanup workers of the 1986 Chornobyl nuclear power plant accident. Cases of incident leukemia diagnosed in 1986-2006 were confirmed by a panel of expert hematologists/hematopathologists. Controls were matched to cases on place of residence and year of birth. We estimated individual bone marrow radiation doses by the Realistic Analytical Dose Reconstruction with Uncertainty Estimation (RADRUE) method. We then used a conditional logistic regression model to estimate excess relative risk of leukemia per gray (ERR/Gy) of radiation dose. Results: We found a significant linear dose response for all leukemia [137 cases, ERR/Gy = 1.26 (95% CI: 0.03, 3.58]. There were nonsignificant positive dose responses for both CLL and non-CLL (ERR/Gy = 0.76 and 1.87, respectively). In our primary analysis excluding 20 cases with direct in-person interviews < 2 years from start of chemotherapy with an anomalous finding of ERR/Gy = -0.47 (95% CI: < -0.47, 1.02), the ERR/Gy for the remaining 117 cases was 2.38 (95% CI: 0.49, 5.87). For CLL, the ERR/Gy was 2.58 (95% CI: 0.02, 8.43), and for non-CLL, ERR/Gy was 2.21 (95% CI: 0.05, 7.61). Altogether, 16% of leukemia cases (18% of CLL, 15% of non-CLL) were attributed to radiation exposure. Conclusions: Exposure to low doses and to low dose-rates of radiation from post-Chornobyl cleanup work was associated with a significant increase in risk of leukemia, which was statistically consistent with estimates for the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Based on the primary analysis, we conclude that CLL and non-CLL are both radiosensitive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several charts are presented that display data collected under a research work titled "Radiation and the Risk of Chronic Lymphocytic and Other Leukemias among Chornobyl Cleanup Workers," which also serve as supplemental study material for students studying about environmental health.

The article presents a commentary on a study by Okamura et al. which deals with the measurement of Fukushima-related radioactive contamination in a number of aquatic species. Topics discussed include the researchers' use of aquatic monitoring data taken over the period from April 2011 to March 2015, and the implications for radiation-related risks to people consuming contaminated aquatic food products.

A response from the authors of the article "Estimating Risk of Circulatory Disease from Exposure to Low-Level Ionizing Radiation" in the previous issue.