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This paper explores the Holocene climatic dynamics of South Africa's southern Cape, a region that supports a large proportion of the Greater Cape Floristic Region and contains an array of important archaeological sites. While South African climates are generally characterised by marked rainfall seasonality, the southern Cape is currently situated at the interface between tropical and temperate climate systems, resulting in a largely aseasonal rainfall regime. This regime, however, is thought to have been particularly sensitive to past changes in late Quaternary boundary conditions, meaning that variability in either tropical or temperate systems could have significant environmental impacts. Evidence of past climate change, however, remains limited. We present a 9000-year record of hydroclimatic variability obtained from rock hyrax midden stable nitrogen records, from Papkuilsfontein, on the southern slope of the Anysberg Mountains. Resolved to an average 6-year resolution and spanning the period c. 9050 cal yr BP to 1990 CE, this is the highest resolution Holocene record from southern Africa and presents a unique opportunity for the detailed study of the primary drivers and spatial gradients of Holocene climate change in the southern Cape. The data indicate a long-term decrease in aridity across the Holocene and a pattern of variability that reveals remarkable similarities with records from the South African tropics and El Niño–Southern Oscillation proxies, highlighting the significance of tropical systems as drivers of Holocene climate change in the region. This substantially expands what has been previously considered to be the zone of tropical influence, extending from a coastal phenomenon associated with heat transport via the Agulhas Current to encompass much, if not all, of the Agulhas Plain south of the Cape Fold Mountains. These findings provide a valuable new climatic framework for contextualizing changes in ecological and archaeological records in the southern Cape, and contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of climate systems in southern Africa. • Sub-decadal 9000-year record of aridity from South Africa's southern Cape. • Reveals dominance of tropical forcing across the southern Cape and Agulhas Plain. • ENSO variability indicated to be important driver of regional climate change. • Presents high-resolution framework for study of human-environment interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With a rich sequence of floral and faunal remains spanning the past >65,000 years, Boomplaas Cave is among the more important paleoenvironmental archives from South Africa's southern Cape. However, over the last several decades, its paleoenvironmental records have been the subject of conflicting interpretations, fueling uncertainty over fundamental aspects of Quaternary climate change in the region. Most significantly, researchers have variably interpreted the fossil plant and animal assemblages dating to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as indicating harsh and arid or humid and productive conditions. This review critically examines the paleoenvironmental evidence from Boomplaas Cave, focusing on its LGM deposits and how they relate to the contentious problem of moisture availability through time. We show that interpretations of aridity during the LGM either (i) lack robust ecological links between the evidence and the paleoenvironmental interpretation, or (ii) are based on spurious patterns arising from sampling effects. In contrast, interpretations of relatively humid conditions during the LGM are grounded in present-day ecological observations and are consistent with both local and regional paleoenvironmental datasets. Overall, the evidence strongly supports the characterization of the LGM as a time of relatively humid conditions, with the transition to the Holocene characterized by increasing aridity. Several lines of evidence from Boomplaas Cave further suggest that this phase of increased humidity was associated with a dominance of winter rainfall, in contrast to the aseasonal rainfall regime that characterizes the southern Cape today. • Boomplaas Cave is a critical but debated archive of LGM climate in southern Africa. • This study examines its paleo proxies and the interpretations derived from them. • The proxy records indicate greater moisture availability during the LGM. • The proxy records indicate a greater dominance of winter rainfall during the LGM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The southern Cape of South Africa is important to understanding regional climate because it straddles the transition between the winter and summer rainfall zones. We examine late Quaternary changes in rainfall seasonality and aridity through analysis of micromammal assemblages from three sites: Boomplaas Cave and Nelson Bay Cave in the aseasonal rainfall zone and Byneskranskop 1 in the winter rainfall zone. Our interpretation is based on analysis of 123 modern micromammal assemblages accumulated by barn owls (Tyto alba), which empirically links species composition to climate. The Pleistocene record (∼65 to 12 ka) from Boomplaas Cave, together with the last glacial maximum (LGM) samples from Nelson Bay Cave, indicates enhanced winter rainfall, especially during the LGM. Boomplaas Cave documents progressive aridification from the LGM to the earliest Holocene, followed by a return to moderately humid conditions through the Holocene. Byneskranskop 1 indicates a dominance of winter rains over the last 17 ka and a shift from an arid middle Holocene to a humid later Holocene. Agreement between the micromammal record and other local and regional proxies reinforces the potential of southern African micromammal assemblages as paleoclimate indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Late Quaternary climate variability in the southern African subtropics is still only poorly resolved, with significant complexity and apparent contradictions in the regional dataset. To more effectively interpret and synthesize key regional records, we reanalysed the data from 13 pollen sequences from the summer rainfall zone of South Africa spanning the last 45,000 years, obtaining directly comparable quantitative reconstructions of mean annual temperature and summer rainfall. Temperature reconstructions from across the region provide consistent results, with all sites reflecting trends observed in southwest Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures in the adjacent Mozambique Channel. Precipitation reconstructions are more heterogeneous, with two distinct subregions being identified. In the northeast, long-term trends in precipitation are determined by sea-surface and continental temperature trends, revealing a positive relationship between temperature and rainfall. This long-term pattern appears to be primarily driven by high northern latitude mechanisms, with direct local insolation being subordinate. Their relative impact reversed during terminal glacial period/early Holocene, at which time direct insolation forcing became the main driver of rainfall variability. Further south, in central South Africa, precipitation variability appears also to be influenced by the latitudinal position of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, which combine with tropical flow to create tropical-temperate trough, advecting moisture into the interior. In this region, periods of maximum precipitation coincide with periods of elevated SSTs and equatorward expansions of the westerly storm track. This study allows for a fully constrained understanding of climate dynamics along the eastern African margin for the last 45,000 years, linking dynamics to drivers and describing how the climate systems evolved across the last glacial–interglacial transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Africa's southwestern Cape occupies a critical transition zone between Southern Hemisphere temperate (winter) and tropical (summer) moisture-bearing systems. In the recent geological past, it has been proposed that the relative influence of these systems may have changed substantially, but little reliable evidence regarding regional hydroclimates and rainfall seasonality exists to refine or substantiate the understanding of long-term dynamics. In this paper we present a mid-to late Holocene multi-proxy record of environmental change from a rock hyrax midden from Katbakkies Pass, located along the modern boundary between the winter and summer rainfall zones. Derived from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes, fossil pollen and microcharcoal, these data provide a high resolution record of changes in humidity, and insight into changes in rainfall seasonality. Whereas previous work concluded that the site had generally experienced only subtle environmental change during the Holocene, our records indicate that significant, abrupt changes have occurred in the region over the last 7000 years. Contrary to expectations based on the site's location, these data indicate that the primary determinant of changes in humidity is summer rather than winter rainfall variability, and its influence on drought season intensity and/or length. These findings are consistent with independent records of upwelling along the southern and western coasts, which indicate that periods of increased humidity are related to increased tropical easterly flow. This substantially refines our understanding of the nature of temperate and tropical circulation system dynamics in SW Africa, and how changes in their relative dominance have impacted regional environments during the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Like many of the world''s subtropical regions, southern Africa is highly sensitive to changes in the earth''s climate system, but a dearth of reliable palaeoenvironmental records means that relatively little is known about how regional environments have been affected over centennial to multi-millennial timescales. To a large extent this sensitivity is a function of the position of these regions at the interface between temperate and tropical circulation systems. The resulting seasonality and irregularity of rainfall have limited the development of suitable archives, such as lakes and wetlands, for the preservation of palaeoenvironmental proxies. This paper reviews and evaluates the value of rock hyrax middens as novel palaeoenvironmental archives in southern Africa. Considered are (1) the contemporary taxonomy, distribution and ecology of hyraxes, (2) the mechanisms of hyrax midden development, their physical and chemical structure, rates of accumulation and age; and (3) the palaeoenvironmental proxies preserved within hyrax middens, including fossil pollen, stable isotopes and biomarkers. The interpretive constraints and opportunities offered by these various midden characteristics are assessed with a view to demonstrating the potential of these deposits, widespread as they are through arid and semi-arid southern Africa, in providing a more detailed and chronologically resolved view of late Quaternary palaeoenvironments across the subcontinent. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The west coast of South Africa is situated at a critical location between temperate and subtropical oceanic and atmospheric circulation systems, and palaeoenvironmental proxies from this region have the potential to elucidate issues concerning variations within these systems over glacial–interglacical cycles. While semi-arid climates have hindered the preservations of organic proxies, a variety of aeolian bedforms have been analysed in an effort to improve our understanding of environmental change in the region. Optically stimulated luminescence measurements of 51 samples from 15 reticulate dune sites along the west coast have enabled the identification of phases of aeolian activity, as well as periods of relative geomorphic stability. Combined with data derived from previous studies of the region''s sediment accumulating deposits and other palaeoenvironmental proxies, periods of increased windiness are identified at 16–24, 30–33, 43–49 and 63–73 ka From approximately 17–12 ka, decreasing transport capacity resulted in the stabilisation of the west coast''s dune fields. During the Holocene Altithermal (∼4–8 ka), despite reduced wind strength, increased aridity resulting from higher temperatures and a reduced influence of moisture bearing westerly systems appears to have trigged widespread remobilisation of the region''s dune fields. The combination of ages from a variety of dune forms with different development mechanisms, and comparisons with a range of proxy data sources, have allowed for an enhanced interpretation of the region''s aeolian archives, moving beyond simple correlations between dune activity and “aridity.” [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Pollen, spores, and microscopic charcoal from a sediment core from Lake Ngami, in the Middle Kalahari, reflect paleovegetation and paleoclimatic conditions over the last 16,600 cal years BP. The location of Lake Ngami allows for the receipt of moisture sourced from the Indian and/or Atlantic oceans, which may have influenced local rainfall or long distance water transport via the Okavango system. We interpret results of statistical analyses of the pollen data as showing a complex, dynamic system wherein variability in tropical convective systems and local forcing mechanisms influence hydrological changes. Our reconstructions show three primary phases in the regional precipitation regime: 1) an early period of high but fluctuating summer rainfall under relatively cool conditions from ∼16,600–12,500 cal BP, with reduced tree to herb and shrub ratio; 2) an episode of significantly reduced rainfall centered around c. 11,400 cal BP, characterized by an increase in xeric Asteraceae pollen, but persistent aquatic elements, suggesting less rainfall but cool conditions and lower evaporation that maintained water in the basin; and 3) a longer phase of high, but fluctuating rainfall from ∼9000 cal BP to present with more woody savanna vegetation ( Vachellia ( Acacia ) and Combretaceae). We propose a model to relate these changes to increased Indian Ocean-sourced moisture in the late Pleistocene due to a southerly position of the African rain belt, a northerly contraction of tropical systems that immediately followed the Younger Dryas, and a subsequent dominance of local insolation forcing, modulated by changes in the SE Atlantic basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we compare a compilation of multiproxy records spanning the eastern African margin with general circulation model simulations of seasonal precipitation fields for the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) carried out as part of the third phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). Results show good agreement during the mid-Holocene (the ‘6K experiment’), with palaeodata and model outputs correlating well and indicating that changes in insolation drove a stronger northern African monsoon (north of ∼0–5°S) during the terminal “African Humid Period” and a weaker southeast African monsoon. For the LGM (the ‘21K experiment’), however, significant discrepancies exist both between model simulations, and between existing palaeodata and simulated conditions, both in terms of direction and amplitude of change. None of the PMIP3 simulations reflect the pattern inferred from the palaeodata. Two major discrepancies have been identified to explain this: 1) the limited sensitivity of the southern monsoon domain to the colder temperatures of the Indian Ocean (−2 °C), and 2) the absence of changes in the dynamic of the Indian Ocean Walker circulation over the entire basin, despite the exposure of the Sahul and Sunda shelves that weakened convection over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool during the LGM. These results indicate that some major features of the atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections between the different monsoon regions require further consideration as models evolve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The African continent is characterised by a wide range of hydroclimate regimes, ranging from humid equatorial West Africa to the arid deserts in the northern and southern subtropics. The livelihoods of much of its population are also vulnerable to future climate change, mainly through variability in rainfall affecting water resource availability. A growing number of data sources indicate that such hydroclimatic variability is an intrinsic component of Africa's natural environment. This paper, co-authored by members of the PAGES Africa 2k Working Group, presents an extensive assessment and discussion of proxy, historical and instrumental evidence for hydroclimatic variability across the African continent, spanning the last two millennia. While the African palaeoenvironmental record is characterised by spatially disjunctive datasets, with often less-than-optimal temporal resolution and chronological control, the available evidence allows the assessment of prominent spatial patterns of palaeomoisture variability through time. In this study, we focus sequentially on data for six major time windows: the first millennium CE, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (900–1250 CE), the Little Ice Age (1250–1750 CE), the end of the LIA (1750–1850 CE), the Early Modern Period (1850–1950), and the period of recent warming (1950 onwards). This results in a continent-wide synthesis of regional moisture-balance trends through history, allowing consideration of possible driving mechanisms, and suggestions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mediterranean environments are biodiversity hotspots in which strongly seasonal winter rainfall regimes and fire play major roles in driving ecosystem dynamics. Global predictions forecast unreliability of winter rainfall and increases in summer rainfall that are expected to result in major changes in community structure. Mediterranean systems are difficult to model, and although ecophysiological responses can be studied at observational timescales, a long-term understanding is necessary to address uncertainties and refine predictive models at landscape scales. Here we provide a ∼ 1100 year-long palaeoecological reconstruction of vegetation (palynology), fire (sedimentary charcoal) and sedimentological change at a site adjacent to a multi-annual rainfall manipulation experiment designed to test plant population and community responses to altered seasonal regimes in the Greater Cape Floristic Region hotspot (southwestern Africa). We use these data to test whether long-term vegetation dynamics are controlled by changes in rainfall seasonality. We conclude that vegetation dynamics correlate with centennial-scale seasonality fluctuations, with transitions between two ecologically distinct fine-leaved shrub communities. These transitions are consistent with results of responses to experimental manipulations of summer rainfall. This study demonstrates the value of ecophysiological research in interpreting palaeoecological reconstructions and scaling up the results of observational research to answer long-term questions about environmental change. • Projections for Mediterranean areas forecast unreliable winter rainfall. • A 1100 year-long sequence informs of palaeoecological change in the Cape Region. • Vegetation dynamics correlate with centennial seasonality fluctuations. • Landscape dynamics can be predicted from responses at observational timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 15,000 and 18,000 years ago, large amounts of ice and meltwater entered the North Atlantic during Heinrich stadial 1. This caused substantial regional cooling, but major climatic impacts also occurred in the tropics. Here, we demonstrate that the height of this stadial, about 16,000 to 17,000 years ago (Heinrich event 1), coincided with one of the most extreme and widespread megadroughts of the past 50,000 years or more in the Afro-Asian monsoon region, with potentially serious consequences for Paleolithic cultures. Late Quaternary tropical drying commonly is attributed to southward drift of the intertropical convergence zone, but the broad geographic range of the Heinrich event 1 megadrought suggests that severe, systemic weakening of Afro-Asian rainfall systems also occurred, probably in response to sea surface cooling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southwestern Africa's coastal marine mudbelt, a prominent Holocene sediment package, provides a valuable archive for reconstructing terrestrial palaeoclimates on the adjacent continent. While the origin of terrestrial inorganic material has been intensively studied, the sources of terrigenous organic material deposited in the mudbelt are yet unclear. In this study, plant wax derived n -alkanes and their compound-specific δ 13 C in soils, flood deposits and suspension loads from regional fluvial systems and marine sediments are analysed to characterize the origin of terrestrial organic material in the southwest African mudbelt. Soils from different biomes in the catchments of the Orange River and small west coast rivers show on average distinct n -alkane distributions and compound-specific δ 13 C values reflecting biome-specific vegetation types, most notably the winter rainfall associated Fynbos Biome of the southwestern Cape. In the fluvial sediment samples from the Orange River, changes in the n -alkane distributions and compound-specific δ 13 C compositions reveal an overprint by local vegetation along the river's course. The smaller west coast rivers show distinct signals, reflecting their small catchment areas and particular vegetation communities. Marine surface sediments spanning a transect from the northern mudbelt (29°S) to St. Helena Bay (33°S) reveal subtle, but spatially coherent, changes in n -alkane distributions and compound-specific δ 13 C, indicating the influence of Orange River sediments in the northern mudbelt, the increasing importance of terrigenous input from the adjacent western coastal biomes in the central mudbelt, and contributions from the Fynbos Biome to the southern mudbelt. These findings indicate the different sources of terrestrial organic material deposited in the mudbelt, and highlight the potential the mudbelt has to preserve evidence of environmental change from the adjacent continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]