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In both observational studies and randomized trials with noncompliance, unmeasured confounding may exist which may bias treatment effect estimates. Instrumental variables (IV) are a popular technique for addressing such confounding, enabling consistent estimation of causal effects. This paper proposes nonparametric IV estimators for censored time to event data that may be subject to competing risks. A simple, plug-in estimator is introduced using nonparametric estimators of the cumulative incidence function, with confidence intervals derived using asymptotic theory. To provide an overall test of the treatment effect, an integrated weighted difference statistic is suggested, which is applicable to data with and without competing risks. Simulation studies demonstrate that the methods perform well with realistic samples sizes. The methods are applied to assess the effect of infant or maternal antiretroviral therapy on transmission of HIV from mother to child via breastfeeding using data from a large, recently completed randomized trial in Malawi where noncompliance with assigned treatment may confound treatment effect estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A fundamental probabilistic equivalence between randomized experiments and observational studies is presented. Given a detailed scenario, the reader is asked to consider which of two possible study designs provides more information regarding the expected difference in an outcome due to a time-fixed treatment. A general solution is described, and a particular worked example is also provided. A mathematical proof is given in the appendix. The demonstrated equivalence helps to clarify common ground between randomized experiments and observational studies, and to provide a foundation for considering both the design and interpretation of studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A pooled analysis of individual data from >5000 human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)–infected mothers and their infants from Africa and India who participated in 5 randomized trials shows that extended prophylaxis with nevirapine or with nevirapine and zidovudine significantly reduces postnatal HIV-1 infection.Background. In resource-limited settings, mothers infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) face a difficult choice: breastfeed their infants but risk transmitting HIV-1 or not breastfeed their infants and risk the infants dying of other infectious diseases or malnutrition. Recent results from observational studies and randomized clinical trials indicate daily administration of nevirapine to the infant can prevent breast-milk HIV-1 transmission.Methods. Data from 5396 mother-infant pairs who participated in 5 randomized trials where the infant was HIV-1 negative at birth were pooled to estimate the efficacy of infant nevirapine prophylaxis to prevent breast-milk HIV-1 transmission. Four daily regimens were compared: nevirapine for 6 weeks, 14 weeks, or 28 weeks, or nevirapine plus zidovudine for 14 weeks.Results. The estimated 28-week risk of HIV-1 transmission was 5.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.3%–7.9%) for the 6-week nevirapine regimen, 3.7% (95% CI, 2.5%–5.4%) for the 14-week nevirapine regimen, 4.8% (95% CI, 3.5%–6.7%) for the 14-week nevirapine plus zidovudine regimen, and 1.8% (95% CI, 1.0%–3.1%) for the 28-week nevirapine regimen (log-rank test for trend, P < .001). Cox regression models with nevirapine as a time-varying covariate, stratified by trial site and adjusted for maternal CD4 cell count and infant birth weight, indicated that nevirapine reduces the rate of HIV-1 infection by 71% (95% CI, 58%–80%; P < .001) and reduces the rate of HIV infection or death by 58% (95% CI, 45%–69%; P < .001).Conclusions. Extended prophylaxis with nevirapine or with nevirapine and zidovudine significantly reduces postnatal HIV-1 infection. Longer duration of prophylaxis results in a greater reduction in the risk of infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background.Little is known about type-specific associations between prevalent human papillomavirus (HPV) infections and risk of acquiring other HPV types in men. Data on natural clustering of HPV types are needed as a prevaccine distribution to which postvaccine data can be compared.Methods.Using data from a randomized controlled trial of male circumcision in Kisumu, Kenya, adjusted mean survival ratios were estimated for acquisition of any-HPV, high-risk (HR) HPV, and individual HR-HPV types among men uninfected as compared to those infected with vaccine-relevant HPV types 16, 18, 31, 45, 6, or 11 at baseline.Results.Among 1097 human immunodeficiency virus–negative, uncircumcised men, 2303 incident HPV infections were detected over 2534 person-years of follow-up. Although acquisition of individual HR-HPV types varied by baseline HPV type, there was no clear evidence of shorter times to acquisition among men without vaccine-relevant HPV-16, -18, -31, -45, -6, or -11 infections at baseline, as compared to men who did have these infections at baseline.Conclusions.These prospective data on combinations of HPV infections over time do not suggest the potential for postvaccination HPV type replacement. Future surveillance studies are needed to definitely determine whether elimination of HPV types by vaccination will alter the HPV type distribution in the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In randomized studies, treatment comparisons conditional on intermediate postrandomization outcomes using standard analytic methods do not have a causal interpretation. An alternative approach entails treatment comparisons within principal strata defined by the potential outcomes for the intermediate outcome that would be observed under each treatment assignment. In this article we develop methods for randomization-based inference within principal strata. We compare our proposed methods with existing large-sample methods as well as traditional intent-to-treat approaches. This research is motivated by HIV prevention studies, where few infections are expected and inference is desired within the always-infected principal stratum, that is, all individuals who would become infected regardless of randomization assignment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determines predictors of loss to follow-up (LTFU) in trials of candidate HIV vaccines. Use of multiple logistic regression analyses and generalized estimating equations; Association of age, trial duration and number of immunizations with LTFU; Adjusted odds ratio; Confidence interval.

Background: The relationship between mastitis and antiretroviral therapy among HIV-positive, breast-feeding women is unclear.Methods: In the Breastfeeding, Antiretrovirals, and Nutrition (BAN) study, conducted in Lilongwe, Malawi, 2369 mother-infant pairs were randomized to a nutritional supplement group and to one of three treatment groups: maternal antiretroviral therapy (ART), infant nevirapine (NVP) or standard of care for 24 weeks of exclusive breast-feeding and 4 weeks of weaning. Among 1472 HIV-infected women who delivered live infants between 2004 and 2007, we estimated cumulative incidence functions and sub-distribution hazard ratios (HR) of mastitis or breast inflammation comparing women in maternal ART (n = 487) or infant nevirapine (n = 492) groups to the standard of care (n = 493). Nutritional supplement groups (743 took, 729 did not) were also compared.Results: Through 28-weeks post-partum, 102 of 1472 women experienced at least one occurrence of mastitis or breast inflammation. The 28-week risk was higher for maternal ART (risk difference (RD) 4.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.9, 8.1) and infant NVP (RD 3.6, 95% CI 0.3, 6.9) compared to standard of care. The hazard of late-appearing mastitis or breast inflammation (from week 5-28) was also higher for maternal ART (HR 6.7, 95% CI 2.0, 22.6) and infant NVP (HR 5.1, 95% CI 1.5, 17. 5) compared to the standard of care.Conclusions: Mastitis or breast inflammation while breast-feeding is a possible side effect for women taking prophylactic ART and women whose infants take NVP, warranting additional research in the context of postnatal HIV transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The proportional hazards model (PH) is currently the most popular regression model for analyzing time-toevent data. Despite its popularity, the analysis of interval-censored data under the PH model can be challenging using many available techniques. This article presents a new method for analyzing interval-censored data under the PH model. The proposed approach uses a monotone spline representation to approximate the unknown nondecreasing cumulative baseline hazard function. Formulating the PH model in this fashion results in a finite number of parameters to estimate while maintaining substantial modeling flexibility. A novel expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is developed for finding the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. The derivation of the EM algorithm relies on a two-stage data augmentation involving latent Poisson random variables. The resulting algorithm is easy to implement, robust to initialization, enjoys quick convergence, and provides closed-form variance estimates. The performance of the proposed regression methodology is evaluated through a simulation study, and is further illustrated using data from a large population-based randomized trial designed and sponsored by the United States National Cancer Institute. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The HIV pandemic is a pressing threat to global public health; HIV vaccine development is critical. Clinical evaluation of HIV vaccine candidates differs from the standard therapeutics trial framework primarily due to the fact that healthy individuals are studied. We present an early stage evaluation program developed for the HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN) motivated by characteristics unique to the vaccine setting. The program consists of 3 prototypical stages (Phase I, Ib, II) that provide a unified yet flexible approach to the safety and immunogenicity evaluation of diverse vaccine regimens. The goal of these early trials is to narrow the number of candidate vaccines to the most promising candidates worthy of further study in efficacy trials. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: Screening substantially reduces cervical cancer incidence and mortality. More than half of invasive cervical cancers are attributable to infrequent screening or not screening at all. The current study, My Body My Test (MBMT), evaluates the impact of mailed kits for self-collection of samples for human papillomavirus (HPV) testing on completion of cervical cancer screening in low-income, North Carolina women overdue for cervical cancer screening.Methods/design: The study will enroll at least 510 US women aged 25-64 years who report no Pap test in the last 4 years and no HPV test in the last 6 years. We will randomize participants to an intervention or control arm. The intervention arm will receive kits to self-collect a sample at home and mail it for HPV testing. In both the intervention and control arms, participants will receive assistance in scheduling an appointment for screening in clinic. Study staff will deliver HPV self-collection results by phone and assist in scheduling participants for screening in clinic. The primary outcome is completion of cervical cancer screening. Specifically, completion of screening will be defined as screening in clinic or receipt of negative HPV self-collection results. Women with HPV-negative self-collection results will be considered screening-complete. All other participants will be considered screening-complete if they obtain co-testing or Pap test screening at a study-affiliated institution or other clinic. We will assess whether the self-collection intervention influences participants' perceived risk of cervical cancer and whether perceived risk mediates the relationship between HPV self-collection results and subsequent screening in clinic. We also will estimate the incremental cost per woman screened of offering at-home HPV self-collection kits with scheduling assistance as compared to offering scheduling assistance alone.Discussion: If mailed self-collection of samples for HPV testing is an effective strategy for increasing cervical cancer screening among women overdue for screening, this method has the potential to reduce cervical cancer incidence and mortality in medically underserved women at higher risk of developing cervical cancer.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02651883, Registered on 11 January 2016. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: People who inject drugs (PWID) have a high incidence of HIV, little access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and medication-assisted treatment (MAT), and high mortality. We aimed to assess the feasibility of a future controlled trial based on the incidence of HIV, enrolment, retention, and uptake of the intervention, and the efficacy of an integrated and flexible intervention on ART use, viral suppression, and MAT use.Methods: This randomised, controlled vanguard study was run in Kyiv, Ukraine (one community site), Thai Nguyen, Vietnam (two district health centre sites), and Jakarta, Indonesia (one hospital site). PWID who were HIV infected (index participants) and non-infected injection partners were recruited as PWID network units and were eligible for screening if they were aged 18-45 years (updated to 18-60 years 8 months into study), and active injection drug users. Further eligibility criteria for index participants included a viral load of 1000 copies per mL or higher, willingness and ability to recruit at least one injection partner who would be willing to participate. Index participants were randomly assigned via a computer generated sequence accessed through a secure web portal (3:1) to standard of care or intervention, stratified by site. Masking of assignment was not possible due to the nature of intervention. The intervention comprised systems navigation, psychosocial counselling, and ART at any CD4 count. Local ART and MAT services were used. Participants were followed up for 12-24 months. The primary objective was to assess the feasibility of a future randomised controlled trial. To achieve this aim we looked at the following endpoints: HIV incidence among injection partners in the standard of care group, and enrolment and retention of HIV-infected PWID and their injection partners and the uptake of the integrated intervention. The study was also designed to assess the feasibility, barriers, and uptake of the integrated intervention. Endpoints were assessed in a modified intention-to-treat popualtion after exclusion of ineligible participants. This trial is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02935296, and is active but not recruiting new participants.Findings: Between Feb 5, 2015, and June 3, 2016, 3343 potential index participants were screened, of whom 502 (15%) were eligible and enrolled. 1171 injection partners were referred, and 806 (69%) were eligible and enrolled. Index participants were randomly assigned to intervention (126 [25%]) and standard of care (376 [75%]) groups. At week 52, most living index participants (389 [86%] of 451) and partners (567 [80%] of 710) were retained, and self-reported ART use was higher among index participants in the intervention group than those in the standard of care group (probability ratio [PR] 1·7, 95% CI 1·4-1·9). Viral suppression was also higher in the intervention group than in the standard of care group (PR 1·7, 95% CI 1·3-2·2). Index participants in the intervention group reported more MAT use at 52 weeks than those in the standard of care group (PR 1·7, 95% CI 1·3-2·2). Seven incident HIV infections occurred, and all in injection partners in the standard of care group (intervention incidence 0·0 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 0·0-1·7; standard of care incidence 1·0 per 100 person-years, 95% CI 0·4-2·1; incidence rate difference -1·0 per 100 person-years, 95% CI -2·1 to 1·1). No severe adverse events due to the intervention were recorded.Interpretation: This vanguard study provides evidence that a flexible, scalable intervention increases ART and MAT use and reduces mortality among PWID. The low incidence of HIV in both groups impedes a future randomised, controlled trial, but given the strength of the effect of the intervention, its implementation among HIV-infected PWID should be considered.Funding: US National Institutes of Health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: HIV testing rates are suboptimal among at-risk men. Crowdsourcing may be a useful tool for designing innovative, community-based HIV testing strategies to increase HIV testing. The purpose of this study was to use a stepped wedge cluster randomized controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the effect of a crowdsourced HIV intervention on HIV testing uptake among men who have sex with men (MSM) in eight Chinese cities.Methods and Findings: An HIV testing intervention was developed through a national image contest, a regional strategy designathon, and local message contests. The final intervention included a multimedia HIV testing campaign, an online HIV testing service, and local testing promotion campaigns tailored for MSM. This intervention was evaluated using a closed cohort stepped wedge cluster RCT in eight Chinese cities (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, and Jiangmen in Guangdong province; Jinan, Qingdao, Yantai, and Jining in Shandong province) from August 2016 to August 2017. MSM were recruited through Blued, a social networking mobile application for MSM, from July 29 to August 21 of 2016. The primary outcome was self-reported HIV testing in the past 3 months. Secondary outcomes included HIV self-testing, facility-based HIV testing, condom use, and syphilis testing. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) were used to analyze primary and secondary outcomes. We enrolled a total of 1,381 MSM. Most were ≤30 years old (82%), unmarried (86%), and had a college degree or higher (65%). The proportion of individuals receiving an HIV test during the intervention periods within a city was 8.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-15.5) greater than during the control periods. In addition, the intention-to-treat analysis showed a higher probability of receiving an HIV test during the intervention periods as compared to the control periods (estimated risk ratio [RR] = 1.43, 95% CI 1.19-1.73). The intervention also increased HIV self-testing (RR = 1.89, 95% CI 1.50-2.38). There was no effect on facility-based HIV testing (RR = 1.00, 95% CI 0.79-1.26), condom use (RR = 1.00, 95% CI 0.86-1.17), or syphilis testing (RR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.70-1.21). A total of 48.6% (593/1,219) of participants reported that they received HIV self-testing. Among men who received two HIV tests, 32 individuals seroconverted during the 1-year study period. Study limitations include the use of self-reported HIV testing data among a subset of men and non-completion of the final survey by 23% of participants. Our study population was a young online group in urban China and the relevance of our findings to other populations will require further investigation.Conclusions: In this setting, crowdsourcing was effective for developing and strengthening community-based HIV testing services for MSM. Crowdsourced interventions may be an important tool for the scale-up of HIV testing services among MSM in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC).Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02796963. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We examined associations between suicidality and genotypes that predict plasma efavirenz exposure among AIDS Clinical Trials Group study participants in the United States.Methods: Four clinical trials randomly assigned treatment-naive participants to efavirenz-containing regimens; suicidality was defined as reported suicidal ideation or attempted or completed suicide. Genotypes that predict plasma efavirenz exposure were defined by CYP2B6 and CYP2A6 polymorphisms. Associations were evaluated with weighted Cox proportional hazards models stratified by race/ethnicity. Additional analyses adjusted for genetic ancestry and selected covariates.Results: Among 1833 participants, suicidality was documented in 41 in exposed analyses, and 34 in on-treatment analyses. In unadjusted analyses based on 12 genotype levels, suicidality increased per level in exposed (hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, .96-1.27) and on-treatment 1.16; 1.01-1.34) analyses. In the on-treatment analysis, the association was strongest among white but nearly null among black participants. Considering 3 metabolizer levels (extensive, intermediate and slow), slow metabolizers were at increased risk. Results were similar after baseline covariate-adjustment for genetic ancestry, sex, age, weight, injection drug use history, and psychiatric history or recent psychoactive medication.Conclusions: Genotypes that predict higher plasma efavirenz exposure were associated with increased risk of suicidality. Strength of association varied by race/ethnicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]