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Moisture availability is the main limiting factor of plant growth and biomass production in arid and semi-arid grasslands. The question whether plant responses to changing precipitation are species-specific, or change over entire plant communities is still controversial. Our study focussed on intraspecific changes in the plant traits canopy height, plant width, specific leaf area, chlorophyll fluorescence, performance index, and individual biomass of three congeneric species pairs with changing precipitation in Mongolian rangelands, covering a gradient from the desert to the forest steppes. Using this trait data set, we focussed on three questions: (i) Is the replacement of congeneric species along an environmental gradient also reflected in their trait values? (ii) Can intraspecific trait variation patterns be derived from patterns in species abundances, i.e., are trait values optimal where species are most abundant? (iii) Is the within-population trait variability lowest in populations growing under very dry conditions, i.e., under highest environmental stress, caused by stronger filtering? We tested the responses of the six traits to changing precipitation according to species’ identity and abundance. We found unimodal relationships between most of the species’ traits and precipitation, and strong associations between species abundances and trait values, but not for all investigated species. Trait variability did not significantly differ between populations from different positions along the precipitation gradient. Our results highlight that species show multiple or even opposite trait responses along the precipitation gradient. It thus remains challenging to predict how plant distributions will shift under changing environmental conditions based on their trait composition.

Questions: Livestock management in rangelands depends on the production of plant biomass. Biomass production is driven by the temporal and spatial variability in precipitation, but our understanding of how precipitation variability mediates grazing effects on biomass production is still fragmented. Along a 600-km precipitation gradient we extracted biomass data to ask the questions: (a) what are the effects of grazing intensity on biomass production; (b) does grazing intensity interact with plant species richness to affect biomass production; and (c) how do plant functional groups respond to grazing and precipitation?. Location: Mongolia. Methods: Biomass was sampled along 15 grazing intensity transects within the precipitation gradient over two consecutive years. We modeled spatial variability in above-ground plant biomass using mixed-effects models. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data were combined with field-sampled biomass data to correct for inter-annual precipitation variation. The effects of species richness were modeled with respect to possible interactions with grazing intensity, and the composition of plant functional groups was modeled with respect to possible interactions between grazing intensity and precipitation. Results: Biomass was negatively correlated with grazing intensity and this effect increased as precipitation increased. Biomass was positively correlated with species richness in both years, but the strength of this effect and the interaction between species richness and grazing intensity differed between 2014 and 2015 in line with highly variable precipitation between both years. The plant functional groups grasses, sedges, legumes, wormwood and forbs had contrasting responses to grazing and precipitation. Conclusion: Biomass production in drylands is more vulnerable to changes in precipitation variability and grazing intensities in relatively moist and productive rangelands than in dry and unproductive ones. Future rangeland management needs to address potentially increasing precipitation variability in order to promote desired forage plants, and to preserve the positive effects of biodiversity for biomass production.

Mongolia contains some of the largest intact grasslands in the world, but is vulnerable to future changes in climate and continued increases in the number of domestic livestock. As these are two major drivers of change, it is important to understand interactions between the impact of climate and grazing on productivity of Mongolia’s rangelands and the livelihoods they sustain. We use a gridded, spatially explicit model, the Rangeland Production Model (RPM), to explore the simultaneous and interacting effects of climate and management changes on Mongolia’s rangeland and future livestock production. Comparing the relative impact of temperature, precipitation, and grazing intensity, varied individually and in combination, we find that climatic factors dominate impacts on forage biomass and animal diet sufficiency. Site rainfall strongly mediates the impact of grazing on standing biomass, such that more productive or higher-rainfall sites are more vulnerable to increases in grazing pressure. Gridded simulations covering Mongolia’s Gobi-Steppe ecoregion show that while rangeland biomass is generally predicted to increase under future climate conditions, interactions among spatially varying drivers create strong heterogeneity in the magnitude of change.

There are still major gaps in our understanding of rangeland degradation. Assessing the interactions between climate and grazing effects could help to explain what unifies and separates rangelands, and may therefore promote a more sustainable management of livestock. We studied 15 local land-use transects along a 600 km long climatic gradient in Central Asia to test the hypothesis that grazing effects differ between relatively moist equilibrium (EQ) and dry non-equilibrium (NEQ) rangeland systems. We analysed plant community composition, species diversity and indicator species for different grazing intensities. We found pronounced differences in community composition along our climate gradient, revealed climate-related grazing effects on richness, responses of Simpson's diversity, and also found different grazing indicator species along the larger transect. We conclude that in NEQ rangelands, grazing effects are limited to sacrifice zones and environmental filtering dominates vegetation composition. With increasing precipitation, resource availability gains in importance leading to more complex communities dominated by grazing-tolerant species under EQ dynamics. Hints for xerophytization in the transition zone between EQ and NEQ highlight the vulnerability of rangelands that temporally shift from one state to the other. This calls for extra care in the management of livestock numbers in these transition areas.