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Background: Checkpoint inhibitors have revolutionized the treatment of metastatic melanoma, yielding long-term survival in a considerable proportion of the patients. Yet, 40–60% of patients do not achieve a long-term benefit from such therapy, emphasizing the urgent need to identify biomarkers that can predict response to immunotherapy and guide patients for the best possible treatment. Here, we exploited an unsupervised machine learning approach to identify potential inflammatory cytokine signatures from liquid biopsies, which could predict response to immunotherapy in melanoma. Methods: We studied a cohort of 77 patients diagnosed with unresectable advanced-stage melanoma undergoing treatment with first-line nivolumab plus ipilimumab or pembrolizumab. Baseline and on-treatment plasma samples were tested for levels of PD-1, PD-L1, IFNγ, IFNβ, CCL20, CXCL5, CXCL10, IL6, IL8, IL10, MCP1, and TNFα and analyzed by Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) dimension reduction method and k-means clustering analysis. Results: Interestingly, using UMAP analysis, we found that treatment-induced cytokine changes measured as a ratio between baseline and on-treatment samples correlated significantly to progression-free survival (PFS). For patients treated with nivolumab plus ipilimumab we identified a group of patients with superior PFS that were characterized by significantly higher baseline-to-on-treatment increments of PD-1, PD-L1, IFNγ, IL10, CXCL10, and TNFα compared to patients with worse PFS. Particularly, a high PD-1 increment was a strong individual predictor for superior PFS (HR = 0.13; 95% CI 0.034–0.49; p = 0.0026). In contrast, decreasing levels of IFNγ and IL6 and increasing levels of CXCL5 were associated with superior PFS in the pembrolizumab group, although none of the cytokines were individually predictors for PFS. Conclusions: In short, our study demonstrates that a high increment of PD-1 is associated with superior PFS in advanced-stage melanoma patients treated with nivolumab plus ipilimumab. In contrast, decreasing levels of IFNγ and IL6, and increasing levels of CXCL5 are associated with response to pembrolizumab. These results suggest that using serial samples to monitor changes in cytokine levels early during treatment is informative for treatment response.

Cancer metastasis is the lethal developmental step in cancer, responsible for the majority of cancer deaths. To metastasise, cancer cells must acquire the ability to disseminate systemically and to escape an activated immune response. Here, we endeavoured to investigate if metastatic dissemination reflects acquisition of genomic traits that are selected for. We acquired mutation and copy number data from 8332 tumours representing 19 cancer types acquired from The Cancer Genome Atlas and the Hartwig Medical Foundation. A total of 827,344 non-synonymous mutations across 8332 tumour samples representing 19 cancer types were timed as early or late relative to copy number alterations, and potential driver events were annotated. We found that metastatic cancers had a significantly higher proportion of clonal mutations and a general enrichment of early mutations in p53 and RTK/KRAS pathways. However, while individual pathways demonstrated a clear time-separated preference for specific events, the relative timing did not vary between primary and metastatic cancers. These results indicate that the selective pressure that drives cancer development does not change dramatically between primary and metastatic cancer on a genomic level, and is mainly focused on alterations that increase proliferation.