Search

ABSTRACT Evidence suggests that approximately 63.0%–84.2% of stroke survivors have hypertension, yet there is currently no stroke prediction tool specifically designed for individuals with hypertension. Using data from 20 702 hypertensive patients from the China Stroke Primary Prevention Trial (CSPPT), we developed a 5‐year stroke risk prediction model. This prospective study collected treated blood pressure every 3 months, resulting in 22 measurements over the study period. The model was internally validated using bootstrap resampling, and its predictive performance was assessed with the C‐index and calibration curves. We also developed a random forest model to rank the variable importance. The 5‐year stroke risk prediction model for hypertensive individuals includes 10 risk factors, ranked by importance as follows: average systolic blood pressure during treatment, age, average diastolic blood pressure during treatment, baseline systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, baseline total cholesterol level, baseline folate level, self‐reported stress, smoking, and folic acid supplementation or not. The C statistic of the equation was 0.74 and there were no significant differences by gender or treatment group. Calibration plots indicate good internal consistency between observed and predicted 5‐year stroke risk. We also developed an online calculator to assist clinicians and patients (https://zhouziyi.shinyapps.io/CSPPT/). Our study indicates that for patients with hypertension, long‐term posttreatment blood pressure is the primary predictor of stroke risk. Trial Registration: The CSPPT (clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00794885).

IntroductionChronic inflammation is a recognized independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), highlighting the need for reliable inflammatory indicator to predict CVDs. As an inflammatory indicator which has been proved to have predictive value for prognosis of CVDs, neutrophil percentage-to-albumin ratio (NPAR) has obtained increasing attention, but further research is needed to confirm the relationship with mortality in the general population.MethodThis prospective cohort study included 21,317 individuals who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1999 to 2010, where baseline characteristics and NPAR level were extracted. Data for CVD and all-cause mortality were acquired by linking the cohort database with the National Death Index through December 31, 2019. We employed restricted cubic spline analyses to examine the nonlinear association. Weighted Kaplan–Meier curves with log-rank tests were conducted to access cumulative survival differences across different NPAR results. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to compute hazard ratios and 95% CIs. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare predictive value of NPAR with systemic immune inflammation index (SII) and neutrophils percent.ResultsIn this cohort study, during 270,014 person-years of follow-up, 4,074 all-cause deaths and 1,116 CVD-cause deaths were documented. NPAR levels exhibited significant nonlinear associations with both CVD-cause (P = 0.018 for nonlinearity) and all-cause mortality (P

BackgroundThe associations of neutrophil-percentage-to-albumin ratio (NPAR) level with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD)-cause mortality among patients with hypertension remain unclear. This study aims to investigate the associations of NPAR level with all-cause and CVD-cause mortality among patients with hypertension.MethodsThis prospective cohort study included 8,990 patients with hypertension who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1999 to 2010. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to compute hazard ratios and 95% CIs for the associations of NPAR level with all-cause mortality and CVD-cause mortality. Restricted cubic spline analyses were used to examine the nonlinear association of NPAR level with all-cause mortality and CVD-cause mortality.ResultsThis cohort study included data from 8,990 participants in analysis. During 104,474 person-years of follow-up, 3,069 all-cause deaths and 1,449 CVD-cause deaths were documented. Nonlinear associations were observed for NPAR levels with risk of all-cause mortality and CVD-cause mortality among patients with hypertension. Compared with participants in T1 of NPAR, there was a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality and CVD-cause mortality for participants in both T2 and T3 in the fully adjusted model (model 3). The corresponding HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.10 (95% CI, 0.98–1.22) and 1.63 (95% CI, 1.45–1.82). The corresponding HRs for CVD-cause mortality were 1.10 (95% CI, 0.99–1.23) and 1.63 (95% CI, 1.46–1.81).ConclusionsElevated NPAR level was significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause and CVD-cause mortality in adults with hypertension. NPAR may be clinically useful for predicting long-term health outcomes and mortality in hypertensive population.