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In arid regions with increasing water needs due to growing populations and agriculture, heightened by climate change, groundwater arises as a crucial asset. This research evaluated climate change influence on groundwater potential zones (GPZs) during 2000 and 2014, within the Mostaganem plateau's alluvial aquifer in Algeria, using a methodology that integrates analytical hierarchy process (AHP), remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS). Forecasts for 2030 and 2050 were conducted using the QGIS MOLUSCE plugin. Findings reveal a (30.29%) decrease in zones of moderate potential, the vanishing of high potential sectors, alongside a (7.53%) and a (22.1%) rise in fair potential and low potential, respectively, from 2000 to 2014. Between 2014 and 2030, fair and moderate potential decrease by 6.62% and 0.48%, while low potential zones see a 7.47% increase. These shifts are linked to changes in rainfall distribution, and land use land cover (LULC), notably intensive agriculture of herbaceous crops. Slight changes are anticipated between 2030 and 2050, possibly due to the onset of a resilience equilibrium from 2030 onwards. These findings are crucial as a preliminary investigation, highlighting the necessity of optimal groundwater management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interactions between the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), the normalised difference built-up index (NDBI), and land surface temperature (LST) are complex. The assessment of land use/land cover (LULC) changes in the North-western region of Algeria between 1995 and 2021 confirms the direct influence of these factors on surface thermal processes. The use of new information technologies, particularly remote sensing coupled with GIS, favourably contributes to the processing of a large volume of data and to the use of specific methods aimed at confirming and/or disproving the hypotheses put forward. The application of LULC classification methods clearly highlights the magnitude of transformations, predominantly in favour of intensified urbanisation over the past two decades. Indeed, agricultural lands have experienced a reduction of 17.45%, while urbanised areas have nearly doubled. This phenomenon can, in part, be attributed to the mass migration of populations from inland areas to the coast, not only due to climate change: secondary for political problems between 1990 and 2001. Similarly, barren lands have increased by 10.45%. These changes have real implications for ecosystems (mainly loss of biodiversity) and the climate (pollution, GHG emissions, and rising ambient temperatures). The estimation of average LST from multiple satellite scenes reveals an increasing trend, rising from 36.6 °C in 1995 to 40.35 °C in 2021. The direct relationship between LST and NDVI and between LST and NDBI confirms the close association between land use change and increasing surface temperatures. The Pearson coefficient between LST and NDVI showed a negative correlation, ranging between -0.52 and -0.47, while it was positively correlated between LST and NDBI, with values around 0.66. The emergence of hotspots in the region, confirmed by the results of analysis employing the Getis-Ord G* method, is marked by clearly increasing spatial envelopes. This phenomenon is associated with a distinct reduction in vegetation cover density, coupled with an increased vulnerability to drought conditions. These initial results argue in favour of preserving green and blue networks and, more largely, ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use planning for flood risk reduction has been significantly addressed in literature. However, a clear methodology for flood mitigation oriented land-use planning and its implementation, particularly in developing countries like Lebanon, is still missing. Knowledge on land use planning is still in its earliest stages in Lebanon. A lack of hazard-informed land use planning coupled to random land cover pattern evolution characterize the country. In response, this study focuses on the opportunities, challenges and uncertainties resulting from the integration of land use planning into efficient Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). For this purpose, GIS-based analyses were first conducted on the current land use/land cover (LU/LC) of the Assi floodplain. Then, the areas land cover was retraced and its evolution after several flood occurrences was assessed. Subsequently, a flood hazard-informed LU/LC plan was proposed. The latter is mainly based on the spatial allocation of land-uses with respect to different flood hazard levels. This approach resulted in the production of a land use planning matrix for flood risk reduction. The matrix approach can serve as a tool for designing sustainable and resilient land cover patterns in other similar contexts while simultaneously providing robust contributions to decision-making and risk communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to propose a framework for assessing climate change in Mediterranean data-sparse contexts. For that purpose, the 309-km2 Lebanese Nahr Ibrahim watershed, extending over 3% of Lebanon's surface, was chosen as a representative of the targeted settings. Generally, holistic climate change assessments encompass both climate trend analysis and future forecasting. According to the World Meteorological Organization, a continuous, homogenous, and uninterrupted climatic record for at least 30 years is needed to fulfill these tasks. Often, some Mediterranean watersheds lack such data and are hence characterized by climatic data scarcity. Such is the case of Lebanon where 30 years of wars have considerably disrupted the country's climatic record. In an effort to overcome this state of data scarcity, remote sensing–derived drought indicators were used to determine the climate's evolution during the last 28 years. For that purpose, several remote sensing indices were extracted from LANDSAT imageries for the period 1990–2018 at a 3-year interval, and were coupled to meteorological indicators. Forecasting was then performed using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Meteorological indices showed increased variability of precipitations and aridity periods, while remote sensing indicators collectively revealed slight shifts towards increasing droughts. Projections using ARIMA models forecasted increases of 0.9 °C, 0.7 °C, and 0.8 °C for average, maximal, minimal temperatures, and an average 6 mm decrease of precipitations at the 95% confidence level for the year 2030. The presented approach can serve as a tool for proactive climate change mitigation or adaptation plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]