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Background: Various prognostic models have been derived to predict chronic kidney disease (CKD) development in type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, their generalisability and predictive performance in different populations remain largely unvalidated. This study aimed to externally validate several prognostic models of CKD in a T2D Thai cohort., Methods: A nationwide survey was linked with hospital databases to create a prospective cohort of patients with diabetes (n = 3416). We undertook a systematic review to identify prognostic models and traditional metrics (i.e., discrimination and calibration) to compare model performance for CKD prediction. We updated prognostic models by including additional clinical parameters to optimise model performance in the Thai setting., Results: Six relevant previously published models were identified. At baseline, C-statistics ranged from 0.585 (0.565-0.605) to 0.786 (0.765-0.806) for CKD and 0.657 (0.610-0.703) to 0.760 (0.705-0.816) for end-stage renal disease (ESRD). All original CKD models showed fair calibration with Observed/Expected (O/E) ratios ranging from 0.999 (0.975-1.024) to 1.009 (0.929-1.090). Hosmer-Lemeshow tests indicated a good fit for all models. The addition of routine clinical factors (i.e., glucose level and oral diabetes medications) enhanced model prediction by improved C-statistics of Low's of 0.114 for CKD and Elley's of 0.025 for ESRD., Conclusions: All models showed moderate discrimination and fair calibration. Updating models to include routine clinical factors substantially enhanced their accuracy. Low's (developed in Singapore) and Elley's model (developed in New Zealand), outperformed the other models evaluated. These models can assist clinicians to improve the risk-stratification of diabetic patients for CKD and/or ESRD in the regions settings are similar to Thailand., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Many prognostic models of diabetic microvascular complications have been developed, but their performances still varies. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarise the performances of the existing models., Methods: Prognostic models of diabetic microvascular complications were retrieved from PubMed and Scopus up to 31 December 2020. Studies were selected, if they developed or internally/externally validated models of any microvascular complication in type 2 diabetes (T2D)., Results: In total, 71 studies were eligible, of which 32, 30 and 18 studies initially developed prognostic model for diabetic retinopathy (DR), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end stage renal disease (ESRD) with the number of derived equations of 84, 96 and 51, respectively. Most models were derived-phases, some were internal and external validations. Common predictors were age, sex, HbA1c, diabetic duration, SBP and BMI. Traditional statistical models (i.e. Cox and logit regression) were mostly applied, otherwise machine learning. In cohorts, the discriminative performance in derived-logit was pooled with C statistics of 0.82 (0.73‑0.92) for DR and 0.78 (0.74‑0.83) for CKD. Pooled Cox regression yielded 0.75 (0.74‑0.77), 0.78 (0.74‑0.82) and 0.87 (0.84‑0.89) for DR, CKD and ESRD, respectively. External validation performances were sufficiently pooled with 0.81 (0.78‑0.83), 0.75 (0.67‑0.84) and 0.87 (0.85‑0.88) for DR, CKD and ESRD, respectively., Conclusions: Several prognostic models were developed, but less were externally validated. A few studies derived the models by using appropriate methods and were satisfactory reported. More external validations and impact analyses are required before applying these models in clinical practice., Systematic Review Registration: PROSPERO CRD42018105287., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Background: Uncontrolled hyperphosphatemia in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients commonly results in vascular calcification leading to increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Phosphate binders (PBs) are used for hyperphosphatemia and can be calcium-based (CBPBs) or non-calcium-based (NCBPBs), the latter being more expensive than CBPBs. In this study, we used meta-analysis approaches to assess the cost-utility of PBs for hyperphosphatemia in CKD patients., Methods: Relevant studies published prior to June 2019 were identified from PubMed, Scopus, the Cochrane Library, the National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database, and the Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry. Studies were eligible if they included CKD patients with hyperphosphatemia, compared any PBs and reported economic outcomes. Meta-analysis was applied to pool incremental net benefit (INB) across studies stratified by country income., Results: A total of 25 studies encompassing 32 comparisons were eligible. Lanthanum carbonate, a NCBPB, was a more cost-effective option than CBPBs in high-income countries (HICs), with a pooled INB of $3984.4 (599.5-7369.4), especially in pre-dialysis patients and used as a second-line option with INBs of $4860.2 (641.5-9078.8), $4011.0 (533.7-7488.3), respectively. Sevelamer, also a NCBPB, was not more cost-effective as a first-line option compared to CBPBs with a pooled INB of $6045.8 (- 23,453.0 to 35,522.6) and $34,168.9 (- 638.0 to 68,975.7) in HICs and upper middle-income countries, respectively., Conclusions: Lanthanum carbonate was significantly more cost-effective than CBPBs as a second-line option for hyperphosphatemia in pre-dialysis patients in HICs. However, the use of sevelamer is not more cost-effective as a first-line option compared to CBPBs.

Objectives: To assess the cost effectiveness of renin-angiotensin aldosterone system (RAAS) blockade in the progression of chronic kidney disease using Thai clinical data in 2014., Methods: A Markov model for cost-effectiveness analysis was applied to estimate from a societal perspective the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of RAAS versus non-RAAS used in preventing the progression of end-stage renal disease and death stratified by diabetic and nondiabetic patients. Input parameters related to clinical outcomes were obtained from a cohort study of treatment effectiveness, whereas costs were retrieved from the Ramathibodi Hospital electronic database in 2015 and the Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program in Thailand. One-way analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to evaluate uncertainty surrounding model parameters., Results: From the model, using RAAS improved QALY from 2.41 to 3.16 years and from 2.37 to 3.20 years in diabetic and nondiabetic groups, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for these groups were 78,250 baht (US $2,353.39) and 66,674 baht (US $2,005.22), respectively., Conclusions: Using RAAS in patients with chronic kidney disease improved QALY in both diabetic and nondiabetic patients and proved to be cost-effective., (Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.)