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The world energy sector is entering a period of transformation, defined by the emergence of a whole range of cost-effective technologies and the formation of new state priorities that can radically change the structure of energy use. The calculations of the development of world energy markets for the period up to 2040 were made using economic and mathematical optimization modeling based on the ERI RAS SCANER model complex, for two scenarios: Conservative (maintaining key benchmarks and regulatory measures within the framework of existing energy policies, as well as incremental development of technologies without major breakthroughs) and Energy Transition (assuming ambitious goals in the field of reducing emissions, as well as accelerated technology development). The results of calculations show that the growth rate of primary energy consumption will slow down significantly. Renewable energy sources (RES) will be able to provide up to 35–50% of electricity production and up to a quarter of the world’s energy consumption by 2040, while the share of fossil fuels will decline. Oil and coal will pass the peak of consumption before 2040. This will not only lead to a radical change in the price environment of energy markets, but also to a transformation of the way they are organized and regulated, as well as to a revision of business models of most energy companies.

Рассмотрены состояние и перспективы развития новых технологий мировой и отечественной возобновляемой энергетики с использованием материалов российских и зарубежных форумов и секции Возобновляемой и нетрадиционной энергетики Научно-технической коллегии НП НТС ЕЭС . Показано, что за счёт широкого и эффективного использования возобновляемых и местных энергоресурсов может быть обеспечена потребность человечества в энергии и уже на данном этапе могут быть успешно решены проблемы децентрализованного энергоснабжения для отдалённых и труднодоступных регионов. В настоящее время надёжно обеспечиваются решение научно-технических и организационных вопросов использования высокотехнологичного оборудования, достоверная оценка и прогноз изменяющихся природных ресурсов (интенсивность солнечного излучения, ветропотенциала, гидроэнергоресурсов малых водных потоков, приливов, волн и т.д.). Также за счёт использования нетрадиционных возобновляемых источников энергии (НВИЭ) в России могут быть достигнуты существенное улучшение топливно-энергетического баланса, практическое энергосбережение, создание новых высокотехнологичных производств, новых рабочих мест, импортозамещение и увеличение экспорта. Для существенного продвижения НВИЭ, важного компонента энергетики будущего, необходимы: совершенствование законодательства, разработка современной нормативно-технологической документации, поддержка отечественных НИОКР и импортозамещения производства высокотехнологичного оборудования. Отмечено возрастание роли распределённых энергосистем при разработке глобальных энергообъединений будущего. Приведены достижения и даны предложения по организации научных исследований в области оптимизации структуры региональных, континентальных и межконтинентальных энергосистем необходимость эффективного взаимодействия международных научных коллективов стран-участников по проекту создания глобальной энергетической системы., The article discusses the state and prospects of development of new technologies of world and domestic renewable energy (NRE) using materials of Russian and foreign Forums and the section Renewable and unconventional energy of the Scientific and technical Board of NP NTS UES on this topic. It is shown that due to the wide and effective use of renewable and local energy resources, the need of mankind for energy can be provided and at this stage the problems of decentralized energy supply for remote and hard-to-reach regions can be successfully solved. Solving scientific, technical and organizational issues of using high-tech equipment, reliable assessment and forecast of changing natural resources (solar radiation intensity, wind potential, hydropower resources (water flows, tides, waves, etc.) are now reliably provided. In Russia, significant improvements in the fuel and energy balance, practical energy saving, the creation of new high-tech industries, new jobs, import substitution and increased exports can also be achieved through the use of NRE. For significant promotion of NRE, an important component of the energy of the future, it is necessary to: improve legislation, develop modern regulatory and technological documentation, support domestic R D and import substitution of high-tech equipment production. The increasing role of distributed energy systems in the development of global energy connections of the future is noted. The achievements and proposals for the organization of scientific research in the field of optimization of the structure of regional, continental and Intercontinental energy systems the need for effective interaction of international research teams of the participating countries on the project of creating a global energy system are shown., №1 (2020)

Актуальность исследования определяется необходимостью повышения энергоэффективности и выполнением требований устойчивого развития. Цель работы: анализ тенденций по основным характеристикам на рынке энергоносителей: цене и объему потребления. Потребление выбрано по основным видам первичных энергоносителей: нефть, природный газ, ядерное топливо, возобновляемые источники энергии, гидроэлектроэнергия, каменный уголь. Анализ и прогноз цен проводятся только для нефти марки "Брент". Также необходимо изучить влияние требований устойчивого развития на потребление энергоносителей по макрорегионам: Северная Америка, Южная Америка и Карибы, Азиатско-Тихоокеанский регион, страны СНГ, Средний Восток, Европейский регион, Африка. Методы: прогнозная экстраполяция, основанная на анализе трендов, определяющих на уровне макрорегионов готовность к отказу от устаревших и развитию современных видов первичных энергоносителей; метод аналогии при построении циклической модели цен на нефть. Результаты. Выделены и охарактеризованы четыре цикла динамики цен на нефть в первые два десятилетия XXI в. Спрогнозированы два варианта ценовых уровней на 2020−2021 гг. Дана характеристика основным тенденциям в потреблении первичных энергоносителей отдельно по каждому их виду и каждому региону мира. This article focuses on the analysis of trends to improve energy efficiency and meet the requirements of sustainable development. The aim of the research is to determine trends in the main characteristics of the energy market: price and quantity of demand. Consumption pattern of energy includes consumption of coal, crude oil and natural gas, petroleum products, electricity (such as renewable power generation, hydropower, nuclear power). Analysis and forecast of the prices were carried out only for oil of mark "Brent". Progress in access to energy and sustainable energy is analyzed by macroregions: North America, South America and the Caribbean, Asia-Pacific, CIS countries, the Middle East, the European region, and Africa. Method: forecast extrapolation based on the analysis of trends that determine the readiness of macroregions to abandon outdated and develop modern types of primary energy carriers; an analogy method for constructing a cyclical model of oil prices. Results. Four cycles of oil price dynamics in the first two decades of the XXI century are identified and characterized. Two variants of price levels for 2020-2021 are predicted. The main trends in primary energy consumption are described separately for each type and for each region of the world.

This study proposes a use of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to assess the performance of energy industries. The DEA is a nonparametric approach that does not assume any functional form for performance assessment. The purpose of this study is to discuss how DEA can examine the current energy industries and their trends in the world. The energy is separated into primary and secondary categories. The primary energy is classified into fossil and non-fossil fuels. The fossil fuels include oil, natural gas and coal, while the non-fossil ones include nuclear and renewable energies (e.g., solar, wind, biomass, water and others). Energy consumption is essential for developing economic prosperity in all nations. However, a use of various energy resources usually produces many different types of pollutions (e.g., air, soil and water pollutions), leading to a huge damage on our society and human health. Thus, it is important for us to understand a general trend of world energy when we consider various environmental issues. This study discusses electricity as a representative of secondary energy. It is not easy to maintain a high level of social balance, so-called sustainability between economic development and environmental protection. As the initial step for sustainability development, this study summarizes a general trend of energy whose consumption has been increasing along with an economic development and a population increase in the world. Along with discussing the trend of world energy, this study describes why DEA is useful as one of the methodologies to assess a social balance between economic success and environmental protection by identifying a level of efficiency, later referred to as “unified (operational and environmental) efficiency.” Thus, this study conveys the research necessity of DEA environmental assessment on energy and sustainability from a perspective of supply and demand on energy resources in the world.

Congo Basin countries rely more on wood-based biomass to meet their energy needs than most other countries in the world. Wood fuel production is increasing in Congo Basin countries. Urbanization often produces a shift from fuel wood to charcoal consumption, because charcoal is cheaper and easier to transport and store. Charcoal is produced mostly using traditional techniques, with low transformation efficiencies. Under a business as usual scenario, charcoal supply can represent the single biggest threat to Congo Basin forests in the coming decades. This report aims at providing some thinking on how Congo Basin could meet their energy needs in a forest-friendly manner. It is one of a series of outputs prepared during a two-year exercise to analyze and better understand the deforestation dynamics in the Basin. It presents the main findings related to the wood fuel sector in the Congo Basin and its potential impact on forest cover. It is based on an in-depth analysis of the sector (past trends and future prospects). It also builds on results derived from a modeling exercise conducted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) that examined the national and regional trends in in wood-based biomass energy use and the impacts on Congo Basin forests. The report is structured as follows: chapter one gives an overview of the wood fuel sector in the six Congo Basin countries, including an analysis of its impact so far on forest cover; chapter two presents the prospects of energy needs and production in the near future, and the potential impacts on forest under a business as usual scenario; and chapter three identifies potential key levers in the wood fuel sector that could limit adverse impacts on forest cover.

The challenge for the development community is to exploit the links between energy and poverty to combat global poverty. The human scale of this challenge is huge. Today, 1.6 billion people lack access to electricity and 2.4 billion rely on traditional biomass for cooking and heating. Indoor air pollution is among leading causes of illness and death in developing countries. It leads to 2 million premature deaths a year. In 2004, the richest 20 percent of the world s population consume 58 percent of total energy, while the poorest 20 percent consume less than 4 percent. The majority of those underserved are the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. With increasing populations, 25 years from now, business-as-usual energy scenarios project that even after an expenditure of 16 trillion US dollars on energy investments of which half will be in developing countries, 1.4 billion people will still lack access to electricity. This is a reduction of only 200 million people from today. Over 2.6 billion people in developing countries will continue to rely on traditional forms of biomass for cooking and heating in 2030, even more than today. This scenario expects renewable energy share to increase from 2 percent to 3 percent between 2000 and 2030. Under this scenario, by 2030, the more than doubling of coal, oil and gas consumption will lead to increases in greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. The impacts will affect the developing countries the most, and hence rendering the poor more vulnerable. Projected impacts are increased deaths and risk of infectious disease epidemics; increased floods, mudslides and coastal and soil erosion; increased property and infrastructure damage; decreased crops, higher crop damages and a general drop in agricultural productivity.