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Islands face unique challenges on their journey towards achieving carbon neutrality by the mid-century, due to the lack of energy interconnections, limited domestic energy resources, extensive fossil fuel dependence, and high load variance requiring new technologies to balance demand and supply. At the same time, these challenges can be turned into a great opportunity for economic growth and the creation of jobs with non-interconnected islands having the potential to become transition frontrunners by adopting sustainable technologies and implementing innovative solutions. This paper uses an advanced energy–economy system modeling tool (IntE3-ISL) accompanied by plausible decarbonization scenarios to assess the medium- and long-term impacts of energy transition on the energy system, emissions, economy, and society of the island of Mayotte. The model-based analysis adequately captures the specificities of Mayotte and examines the complexity, challenges, and opportunities to decarbonize the island's non-interconnected energy system. The energy transition necessitates the adoption of ambitious climate policy measures and the extensive deployment of low- and zero-carbon technologies both in the demand and supply sides of the energy system, accounting for the unique characteristics of each individual sector, while sectoral integration is also important. To reduce emissions from hard-to-abate sectors, such as transportation and industry, the measures and technologies can include the installation and use of highly efficient equipment, the electrification of end uses (such as the widespread adoption of electric vehicles), the large roll-out of renewable energy sources, as well as the production and use of green hydrogen and synthetic fuels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of the Tunisian energy system in the next few decades will highly depend on the implementation of its Nationally Determined Contribution by 2030 and its potential long-term low-emission strategies. This study analyses the technology, emissions, energy systems and economic impacts of meeting Tunisia's NDC targets (conditional and unconditional) and long-term transition pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement. Different climate policy targets and settings are explored using a detailed energy system model (MENA-EDS) that integrates detailed representations of energy demand and supply and their complex linkages through energy pricing. The analysis shows that in order to meet its NDC targets for 2030, current climate policies in Tunisia need substantial strengthening, based on the massive uptake of renewable energy technologies (especially solar PV and wind) and a reduction of oil and gas use. Long-term low-emission transitions leading to emission reductions of about 80% from baseline levels in 2050 is based on the further expansion of renewable energy within and beyond the electricity sector; the increased electrification of energy end-uses (especially through the uptake of electric vehicles in transport); accelerated energy efficiency improvements in transport, industries and buildings; and the emergence of low-carbon fuels. The study provides insights into the challenges to achieve the deep decarbonization of the Tunisian economy but also into the opportunities from energy sector-restructuring, including reduced energy import dependence and increased low-carbon investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]