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We analyze a set of events in which both electron flux dropouts caused by magnetopause shadowing and geosynchronous magnetopause crossings (GMCs) are observed. These observations are compared to event‐specific last closed drift shell (LCDS) models derived from the TS05 and TS07 external field models and magnetopause standoff distance. The LCDS models show good association with losses due to magnetopause shadowing but fail to reproduce observations of GMCs on the timescale of minutes. We show that different satellites in geostationary orbit observe different trends in electron flux during storm events on timescales of less than a day due to their separation in longitude. These differences demonstrate that both satellite L* and magnetic local time must be taken into account when modeling rapid variations in the outer radiation belt, and at least three satellites in geostationary orbit, ideally more, may be required for accurate forecasting and reconstruction of these events on timescales shorter than days.

Recurrent and large forest fires negatively impact ecosystem, air quality, and human health. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer fire product is used to identify forest fires over central India domain, an extremely fire prone region. The study finds that from 2001 to 2020, ∼70% of yearly forest fires over the region occurred during March (1,857.5 counts/month) and April (922.8 counts/month). Some years such as 2009, 2012, and 2017 show anomalously high forest fires. The role of persistent warmer temperatures and multiple climate extremes in increasing forest fire activity over central India is comprehensively investigated. Warmer period from 2006 to 2020 showed doubling and tripling of forest fire activity during forest fire (February–June; FMAMJ) and non‐fire (July–January; JASONDJ) seasons, respectively. From 2015 JASONDJ to 2018 FMAMJ, central India experienced a severe heatwave, a rare drought and an extremely strong El Niño, the combined effect of which is linked to increased forest fires. Further, the study assesses quinquennial spatiotemporal changes in forest fire characteristics such as fire count density and average fire intensity. Deciduous forests of Jagdalpur‐Gadchiroli Range and Indravati National Park in Chhattisgarh state are particularly fire prone (>61 fire counts/grid) during FMAMJ and many forest fires are of high intensity (>45 MW). Statistical associations link high near surface air temperature and low precipitation during FMAMJ to significantly high soil temperature, low soil moisture content, low evapotranspiration and low normalized difference vegetation index. This creates a significantly drier environment, conducive for high forest fire activity in the region., Key Points Compared to 2001–2005, central India domain forest fire activity during 2006–2020 doubled in forest fire season and tripled in non‐fire seasonRole of persistent warmer temperatures and multiple climate extremes in increasing forest fire activity over central India is highlightedDeciduous forests of Jagdalpur‐Gadchiroli Range and Indravati National Park are extremely fire prone and fires are of high intensity

We present a comparison of magnetospheric plasma mass/electron density observations during an 11‐day interval which includes the geomagnetic storm of June 22, 2015. For this study we used: Equatorial plasma mass density derived from geomagnetic field line resonances (FLRs) detected by Van Allen Probes and at the ground‐based magnetometer networks EMMA and CARISMA; in situ electron density inferred by the Neural‐network‐based Upper hybrid Resonance Determination algorithm applied to plasma wave Van Allen Probes measurements. The combined observations at L ∼ 4, MLT ∼ 16 of the two longitudinally separated magnetometer networks show a temporal pattern very similar to that of the in situ observations: A density decrease by an order of magnitude about 1 day after the Dst minimum, a partial recovery a few hours later, and a new strong decrease soon after. The observations are consistent with the position of the measurement points with respect to the plasmasphere boundary as derived by a plasmapause test particle simulation. A comparison between plasma mass densities derived from ground and in situ FLR observations during favorable conjunctions shows a good agreement. We find however, for L, Key Points The combination of longitudinally separated magnetometer arrays reproduces main magnetospheric plasma density variations observed in situObservations are consistent with predictions provided by a plasmapause test particle simulationPlasma mass densities derived from ground and in situ field line resonance (FLR) observations for L > 3 are in good agreement during favorable conjunction intervals

The LEXI and SMILE missions will provide soft X‐ray images of the Earth's magnetosheath and cusps after their anticipated launch in 2023 and 2024, respectively. The IBEX mission showed the potential of an Energetic Neutral Atom (ENA) instrument to image dayside magnetosheath and cusps, albeit over the long hours required to raster an image with a single pixel imager. Thus, it is timely to discuss the two imaging techniques and relevant science topics. We simulate soft X‐ray and low‐ENA images that might be observed by a virtual spacecraft during two interesting solar wind scenarios: a southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field and a sudden enhancement of the solar wind dynamic pressure. We employ the OpenGGCM global magnetohydrodynamics model and a simple exospheric neutral density model for these calculations. Both the magnetosheath and the cusps generate strong soft X‐rays and ENA signals that can be used to extract the locations and motions of the bow shock and magnetopause. Magnetopause erosion corresponds closely to the enhancement of dayside reconnection rate obtained from the OpenGGCM model, indicating that images can be used to understand global‐scale magnetopause reconnection. When dayside imagers are installed with high‐ENA inner‐magnetosphere and FUV/UV aurora imagers, we can trace the solar wind energy flow from the bow shock to the magnetosphere and then to the ionosphere in a self‐standing manner without relying upon other observatories. Soft X‐ray and/or ENA imagers can also unveil the dayside exosphere density structure and its response to space weather., Key Points Soft X‐ray and Energetic Neutral Atom (ENA) imaging instruments provide an innovative way to visualize the global solar wind‐magnetosphere interactionHigh‐cadence, wide field‐of‐view soft X‐ray, and ENA images can capture the motion of the bow shock and magnetopauseThe magnetopause motion can reveal the magnetopause reconnection mode on a global scale

The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), an eastward‐moving disturbance near the equator (±30°) that typically recurs every ∼30–90 days in tropical winds and clouds, is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in tropical convection and circulation and has been extensively studied due to its importance for medium‐range weather forecasting. A previous statistical diagnostic of SABER/TIMED observations and the MJO index showed that the migrating diurnal (DW1) and the important nonmigrating diurnal (DE3) tide modulates on MJO‐timescale in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT) by about 20%–30%, depending on the MJO phase. In this study, we address the physics of the underlying coupling mechanisms using SABER, MERRA‐2 reanalysis, and SD‐WACCMX. Our emphasis was on the 2008–2010 time period when several strong MJO events occurred. SD‐WACCMX and SABER tides show characteristically similar MJO‐signal in the MLT region. The tides largely respond to the MJO in the tropospheric tidal forcing and less so to the MJO in tropospheric/stratospheric background winds. We further quantify the MJO response in the MLT region in the SD‐WACCMX zonal and meridional momentum forcing by separating the relative contributions of classical (Coriolis force and pressure gradient) and nonclassical forcing (advection and gravity wave drag [GWD]) which transport the MJO‐signal into the upper atmosphere. Interestingly, the tidal MJO‐response is larger in summer due to larger momentum forcing in the MLT region despite the MJO being most active in winter. We find that tidal advection and GWD forcing in MLT can work together or against each other depending on their phase relationship to the MJO‐phases., Key Points SABER and SD‐WACCMX diurnal temperature tides show a statistically similar response connected to the tropospheric Madden‐Julian OscillationTropospheric radiative and latent heating is more important in forcing the tidal MJO‐response than tropo/stratospheric wind‐filteringCoriolis, pressure gradient, advection, and gravity wave drag forcing are the important mechanisms in the MLT region for tidal MJO‐response

In this study, we evaluate a coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival prediction tool that utilizes the wide‐angle observations made by STEREO's heliospheric imagers (HI). The unsurpassable advantage of these imagers is the possibility to observe the evolution and propagation of a CME from close to the Sun out to 1 AU and beyond. We believe that by exploiting this capability, instead of relying on coronagraph observations only, it is possible to improve today's CME arrival time predictions. The ELlipse Evolution model based on HI observations (ELEvoHI) assumes that the CME frontal shape within the ecliptic plane is an ellipse and allows the CME to adjust to the ambient solar wind speed; that is, it is drag based. ELEvoHI is used to perform ensemble simulations by varying the CME frontal shape within given boundary conditions that are consistent with the observations made by HI. In this work, we evaluate different setups of the model by performing hindcasts for 15 well‐defined isolated CMEs that occurred when STEREO was near L4/5, between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2011. In this way, we find a mean absolute error of between 6.2 ± 7.9 and 9.9 ± 13 hr depending on the model setup used. ELEvoHI is specified for using data from future space weather missions carrying HIs located at L5 or L1. It can also be used with near‐real‐time STEREO‐A HI beacon data to provide CME arrival predictions during the next ∼7 years when STEREO‐A is observing the Sun‐Earth space., Key Points CME prediction tool ELEvoHI is ready to be used in real time, based on STEREO‐A/HI beacon dataDifferent model setups and inputs lead to large differences of the prediction accuraciesAccurate modeling of the ambient solar wind is of particular importance to improve CME predictions

A new model was recently introduced to correct for higher‐order ionospheric residual biases in radio occultation (RO) data. The model depends on the α 1 and α 2 dual‐frequency bending angle difference squared, and a factor κ, which varies with time, season, solar activity, and height, needing only the F10.7 solar radio flux index as additional background information. To date, this kappa‐correction was analyzed in simulation studies. In this study, we test it on real observed Metop‐A RO data. The goal is to improve the accuracy of monthly mean RO climate records, potentially raising the accuracy of RO data toward higher stratospheric altitudes. We performed a thorough analysis of the kappa‐correction, evaluating its ionospheric sensitivity during the solar cycle for monthly RO climatologies and comparing the kappa‐corrected RO stratospheric climatologies to three other data sets from reanalysis and passive infrared sounding. We find a clear dependence of the kappa‐correction on solar activity, geographic location, and altitude; hence, it reduces systematic errors that vary with the solar cycle. From low to high solar activity conditions, the correction can increase from values of about 0.2 K to more than 2.0 K at altitudes between 40 to 45 km. The correction shifts RO climatologies toward warmer temperatures. With respect to other data sets, however, we found it difficult to draw firm conclusions, because the biases in the other data sets appear to be at similar magnitude as the size of the kappa‐correction. Further validation with more accurate data will be useful., Key Points The kappa‐correction model is tested for the impact of its correction of higher‐order ionospheric biases in radio occultation dataThe magnitude of the kappa‐correction varies over the solar cycle from 0.2 K to more than 2.0 K at about 40 kmThe correction shifts the stratospheric data toward warmer temperatures; firm validation based on other data sets was difficult

The Vlasiator hybrid‐Vlasov code was developed to investigate global magnetospheric dynamics at ion‐kinetic scales. Here we focus on the role of magnetic reconnection in the formation and evolution of magnetic islands at the low‐latitude magnetopause, under southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions. The simulation results indicate that (1) the magnetic reconnection ion kinetics, including the Earthward pointing Larmor electric field on the magnetospheric side of an X‐point and anisotropic ion distributions, are well‐captured by Vlasiator, thus enabling the study of reconnection‐driven magnetic island evolution processes, (2) magnetic islands evolve due to continuous reconnection at adjacent X‐points, “coalescence” which refers to the merging of neighboring islands to create a larger island, “erosion” during which an island loses magnetic flux due to reconnection, and “division” which involves the splitting of an island into smaller islands, and (3) continuous reconnection at adjacent X‐points is the dominant source of magnetic flux and plasma to the outer layers of magnetic islands resulting in cross‐sectional growth rates up to + 0.3 RE 2/min. The simulation results are compared to the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) measurements of a chain of ion‐scale flux transfer events (FTEs) sandwiched between two dominant X‐lines. The MMS measurements similarly reveal (1) anisotropic ion populations and (2) normalized reconnection rate ~0.18, in agreement with theory and the Vlasiator predictions. Based on the simulation results and the MMS measurements, it is estimated that the observed ion‐scale FTEs may grow Earth‐sized within ~10 min, which is comparable to the average transport time for FTEs formed in the subsolar region to the high‐latitude magnetopause. Future simulations shall revisit reconnection‐driven island evolution processes with improved spatial resolutions., Key Points Anisotropic ion distributions are reported in Vlasiator simulations and MMS observations of reconnection inflow regionsThe 2‐D simulations suggest magnetic islands grow mainly via continuous reconnection. Island coalescence, erosion, and division are also presentBased on simulation results, ion‐scale FTEs are estimated to grow at

In this study, the ion composition of flux transfer events (FTEs) observed within the magnetosheath proper is examined. These FTEs were observed just upstream of the Earth's postnoon magnetopause by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) spacecraft constellation. The minor ion characteristics are described using energy spectrograms, flux distributions, and ion moments as the constellation encountered each FTE. In conjunction with electron data and magnetic field observations, such observations provide important contextual information on the formation, topologies, and evolution of FTEs. In particular, minor ions, when combined with the field‐aligned streaming of electrons, are reliable indicators of FTE topology. The observations are also placed (i) in context of the solar wind magnetic field configuration, (ii) the connection of the sampled flux tube to the ionosphere, and (iii) the location relative to the modeled reconnection line at the magnetopause. While protons and alpha particles were often depleted within the FTEs relative to the surrounding magnetosheath plasma, the He+ and O+ populations showed clear enhancements either near the center or near the edges of the FTE, and the bulk plasma flow directions are consistent with magnetic reconnection northward of the spacecraft and convection from the dayside toward the flank magnetopause., Key Points Long‐duration magnetosheath FTEs observed under at postnoon local times and under similar solar wind conditions are compared and contrastedMinor ions from the magnetosphere are observed at higher energies at the edges than at the center of the FTEsThe cores of the magnetosheath FTEs are on closed field lines

On 5 May 2017, MMS observed a crater‐type flux rope on the dawnside tailward magnetopause with fluctuations. The boundary‐normal analysis shows that the fluctuations can be attributed to nonlinear Kelvin‐Helmholtz (KH) waves. Reconnection signatures such as flow reversals and Joule dissipation were identified at the leading and trailing edges of the flux rope. In particular, strong northward electron jets observed at the trailing edge indicated midlatitude reconnection associated with the 3‐D structure of the KH vortex. The scale size of the flux rope, together with reconnection signatures, strongly supports the interpretation that the flux rope was generated locally by KH vortex‐induced reconnection. The center of the flux rope also displayed signatures of guide‐field reconnection (out‐of‐plane electron jets, parallel electron heating, and Joule dissipation). These signatures indicate that an interface between two interlinked flux tubes was undergoing interaction, causing a local magnetic depression, resulting in an M‐shaped crater flux rope, as supported by reconstruction., Key Points MMS observed a magnetic flux rope formed on the boundary of a nonlinear Kelvin‐Helmholtz (KH) waveBoth in‐plane and midlatitude reconnection associated with the 3‐D structure of the KH vortex‐inducedflux rope were identifiedA current sheet at the flux rope center supported by reconstruction indicates two flux tubes interlinked to form a crater‐type flux rope

On 6 September 2017, the Sun emitted two significant solar flares (SFs). The first SF, classified X2.2, peaked at 09:10 UT. The second one, X9.3, which is the most intensive SF in the current solar cycle, peaked at 12:02 UT and was accompanied by solar radio emission. In this work, we study ionospheric response to the two X‐class SFs and their impact on the Global Navigation Satellite Systems and high‐frequency (HF) propagation. In the ionospheric absolute vertical total electron content (TEC), the X2.2 SF caused an overall increase of 2–4 TECU on the dayside. The X9.3 SF produced a sudden increase of ~8–10 TECU at midlatitudes and of ~15–16 TECU enhancement at low latitudes. These vertical TEC enhancements lasted longer than the duration of the EUV emission. In TEC variations within 2–20 min range, the two SFs provoked sudden increases of ~0.2 TECU and 1.3 TECU. Variations in TEC from geostationary and GPS/GLONASS satellites show similar results with TEC derivative of ~1.3–1.7 TECU/min for X9.3 and 0.18–0.24 TECU/min for X2.2 in the subsolar region. Further, analysis of the impact of the two SFs on the Global Navigation Satellite Systems‐based navigation showed that the SF did not cause losses‐of‐lock in the GPS, GLONASS, or Galileo systems, while the positioning error increased by ~3 times in GPS precise point positioning solution. The two X‐class SFs had an impact on HF radio wave propagation causing blackouts at, Key Points We investigated effects of the 6 September 2017 X‐class solar flares on the ionosphere, GNSS‐based navigation, and HF propagationThe solar flares had a significant impact on the ionosphere, and the ionospheric effects lasted longer than the enhanced EUV emissionThe SRB associated with the X9.3 flare did not impact on the GNSS communication, but the X‐ray emission caused blackout in HF propagation

Forecasting the geomagnetic effects of solar storms, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is currently severely limited by our inability to predict the magnetic field configuration in the CME magnetic core and by observational effects of a single spacecraft trajectory through its 3‐D structure. CME magnetic flux ropes can lead to continuous forcing of the energy input to the Earth's magnetosphere by strong and steady southward‐pointing magnetic fields. Here we demonstrate in a proof‐of‐concept way a new approach to predict the southward field B z in a CME flux rope. It combines a novel semiempirical model of CME flux rope magnetic fields (Three‐Dimensional Coronal ROpe Ejection) with solar observations and in situ magnetic field data from along the Sun‐Earth line. These are provided here by the MESSENGER spacecraft for a CME event on 9–13 July 2013. Three‐Dimensional Coronal ROpe Ejection is the first such model that contains the interplanetary propagation and evolution of a 3‐D flux rope magnetic field, the observation by a synthetic spacecraft, and the prediction of an index of geomagnetic activity. A counterclockwise rotation of the left‐handed erupting CME flux rope in the corona of 30° and a deflection angle of 20° is evident from comparison of solar and coronal observations. The calculated Dst matches reasonably the observed Dst minimum and its time evolution, but the results are highly sensitive to the CME axis orientation. We discuss assumptions and limitations of the method prototype and its potential for real time space weather forecasting and heliospheric data interpretation., Key Points A new semiempirical model (3DCORE) for simulating the propagation of coronal mass ejection magnetic flux ropes is introduced3DCORE is able to model the observations of a coronal mass ejection on 9–13 July 2013 observed at MESSENGER and WindSolar, coronagraph, and MESSENGER observations are used as constraints, resulting in a good match of the modeled and observed Dst index

We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self‐similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%–35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide‐angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first‐order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun‐Earth L5 point., Key Points Hindsight predictions of CMEs by modeling observations from the STEREO heliospheric imagers science data are analyzed for 2007‐2014About one out of four predicted CME arrivals is observed in situ as a magnetic obstacle by MESSENGER, Venus Express, Wind, and STEREO A/BAlthough using strong assumptions on CME physics, prediction accuracies for CME arrival times are similar to numerical or analytical models

Solar cycle 24 is notable for three features that can be found in previous cycles but which have been unusually prominent: (1) sunspot activity was considerably greater in the northern/southern hemisphere during the rising/declining phase; (2) accumulation of open solar flux (OSF) during the rising phase was modest, but rapid in the early declining phase; (3) the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) tilt showed large fluctuations. We show that these features had a major influence on the progression of the cycle. All flux emergence causes a rise then a fall in OSF, but only OSF with foot points in opposing hemispheres progresses the solar cycle via the evolution of the polar fields. Emergence in one hemisphere, or symmetric emergence without some form of foot point exchange across the heliographic equator, causes poleward migrating fields of both polarities in one or both (respectively) hemispheres which temporarily enhance OSF but do not advance the polar field cycle. The heliospheric field observed near Mercury and Earth reflects the asymmetries in emergence. Using magnetograms, we find evidence that the poleward magnetic flux transport (of both polarities) is modulated by the HCS tilt, revealing an effect on OSF loss rate. The declining phase rise in OSF was caused by strong emergence in the southern hemisphere with an anomalously low HCS tilt. This implies the recent fall in the southern polar field will be sustained and that the peak OSF has limited implications for the polar field at the next sunspot minimum and hence for the amplitude of cycle 25., Key Points The tilt of the heliospheric current sheet is shown to modulate the loss rate of open solar fluxNot all magnetic flux emerged in active regions contributes to the solar cycle evolution of solar polar regionsThe rise in open flux in the declining phase of cycle 24 was due to reduction of the loss rate as well as increase in the production rate

A simple Monte Carlo model is presented that considers the effects of spacecraft orbital sampling on the inferred distribution of magnetic flux ropes, generated through magnetic reconnection in the magnetotail current sheet. When generalized, the model allows the determination of the number of orbits required to constrain the underlying population of structures: It is able to quantify this as a function of the physical parameters of the structures (e.g., azimuthal extent and probability of generation). The model is shown adapted to the Hermean magnetotail, where the outputs are compared to the results of a recent survey. This comparison suggests that the center of Mercury's neutral line is located dawnward of midnight by 0.37−1.02+1.21RM and that the flux ropes are most likely to be wide azimuthally (∼50% of the width of the Hermean tail). The downtail location of the neutral line is not self‐consistent or in agreement with previous (independent) studies unless dissipation terms are included planetward of the reconnection site; potential physical explanations are discussed. In the future the model could be adapted to other environments, for example, the dayside magnetopause or other planetary magnetotails., Key Points Monte Carlo model allows the estimation of X‐line location and reconnection frequency given sampling with a single spacecraftMercury's magnetotail reconnection site is consistent with a center offset ( 0.37‐1.02+1.21RM) dawnward of midnightMercury's downtail X‐line location is only self‐consistent if dissipation terms are included planetward of the X‐line

We investigate the accuracy with which the reconnection electric field E M can be determined from in situ plasma data. We study the magnetotail electron diffusion region observed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) on 11 July 2017 at 22:34 UT and focus on the very large errors in E M that result from errors in an L M N boundary normal coordinate system. We determine several L M N coordinates for this MMS event using several different methods. We use these M axes to estimate E M. We find some consensus that the reconnection rate was roughly E M = 3.2 ± 0.6 mV/m, which corresponds to a normalized reconnection rate of 0.18 ± 0.035. Minimum variance analysis of the electron velocity (MVA‐v e), MVA of E, minimization of Faraday residue, and an adjusted version of the maximum directional derivative of the magnetic field (MDD‐B) technique all produce reasonably similar coordinate axes. We use virtual MMS data from a particle‐in‐cell simulation of this event to estimate the errors in the coordinate axes and reconnection rate associated with MVA‐v e and MDD‐B. The L and M directions are most reliably determined by MVA‐v e when the spacecraft observes a clear electron jet reversal. When the magnetic field data have errors as small as 0.5% of the background field strength, the M direction obtained by MDD‐B technique may be off by as much as 35°. The normal direction is most accurately obtained by MDD‐B. Overall, we find that these techniques were able to identify E M from the virtual data within error bars ≥20%., Key Points The reconnection rate E M is estimated for one event using several techniques to find an M directionThe error bars in E M and the L M N coordinate directions are estimated from virtual dataThe reconnection rate is likely E M = 3.2 mV/m ± 0.6 mV/m, which corresponds to a normalized rate of 0.18 ± 0.035

The structure of the current sheet along the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) orbit is examined during the 11 July 2017 Electron Diffusion Region (EDR) event. The location of MMS relative to the X‐line is deduced and used to obtain the spatial changes in the electron parameters. The electron velocity gradient values are used to estimate the reconnection electric field sustained by nongyrotropic pressure. It is shown that the observations are consistent with theoretical expectations for an inner EDR in 2‐D reconnection. That is, the magnetic field gradient scale, where the electric field due to electron nongyrotropic pressure dominates, is comparable to the gyroscale of the thermal electrons at the edge of the inner EDR. Our approximation of the MMS observations using a steady state, quasi‐2‐D, tailward retreating X‐line was valid only for about 1.4 s. This suggests that the inner EDR is localized; that is, electron outflow jet braking takes place within an ion inertia scale from the X‐line. The existence of multiple events or current sheet processes outside the EDR may play an important role in the geometry of reconnection in the near‐Earth magnetotail., Key Points Current sheet structure in electron diffusion region is deduced using multipoint measurements from MMS to infer reconnection parametersRate of electron acceleration along the out‐of‐plane electric field is consistent with theory of meandering electrons in 2‐D reconnectionConsistency with 2‐D reconnection theory is found in reconnection electric field from electron pressure gradient and spatial extent of EDR

A Monte Carlo method of investigating the effects of placing selection criteria on the magnetic signature of in situ encounters with flux ropes is presented. The technique is applied to two recent flux rope surveys of MESSENGER data within the Hermean magnetotail. It is found that the different criteria placed upon the signatures will preferentially identify slightly different subsets of the underlying population. Quantifying the selection biases first allows the distributions of flux rope parameters to be corrected, allowing a more accurate estimation of the intrinsic distributions. This is shown with regard to the distribution of flux rope radii observed. When accounting for the selection criteria, the mean radius of Hermean magnetotail quasi‐force‐free flux ropes is found to be 589−269+273 km. Second, it is possible to weight the known identifications in order to determine a rate of recurrence that accounts for the presence of the structures that will not be identified. In the case of the Hermean magnetotail, the average rate of quasi‐force‐free flux ropes is found to 0.12 min−1 when selection effects are accounted for (up from 0.05 min−1 previously inferred from observations)., Key Points A Monte Carlo method is presented to estimate and correct for sampling biases in spacecraft surveys of magnetic flux ropesMethod allows the correction of observed distributions (e.g., flux rope radii) according to the selection criteria employedAccounting for unidentified flux ropes increases the average rate of flux ropes in Mercury's magnetotail from 0.05 to 0.12 min−1

This study identifies the solar origins of magnetic clouds that are observed at 1 AU and predicts the helical handedness of these clouds from the solar surface magnetic fields. We started with the magnetic clouds listed by the Magnetic Field Investigation (MFI) team supporting NASA's Wind spacecraft in what is known as the MFI table and worked backward in time to identify solar events that produced these clouds. Our methods utilize magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument on the Solar Dynamics Observatory spacecraft so that we could only analyze MFI entries after the beginning of 2011. This start date and the end date of the MFI table gave us 37 cases to study. Of these we were able to associate only eight surface events with clouds detected by Wind at 1 AU. We developed a simple algorithm for predicting the cloud helicity that gave the correct handedness in all eight cases. The algorithm is based on the conceptual model that an ejected flux tube has two magnetic origination points at the positions of the strongest radial magnetic field regions of opposite polarity near the places where the ejected arches end at the solar surface. We were unable to find events for the remaining 29 cases: lack of a halo or partial halo coronal mass ejection in an appropriate time window, lack of magnetic and/or filament activity in the proper part of the solar disk, or the event was too far from disk center. The occurrence of a flare was not a requirement for making the identification but in fact flares, often weak, did occur for seven of the eight cases., Key Points We describe and apply methods for the identification of solar surface sources of coronal mass ejectionsWe apply two methods for the estimation of helicity produced from identified sources

A polarizing heliospheric imager is a critical next generation tool for space weather monitoring and prediction. Heliospheric imagers can track coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they cross the solar system, using sunlight scattered by electrons in the CME. This tracking has been demonstrated to improve the forecasting of impact probability and arrival time for Earth‐directed CMEs. Polarized imaging allows locating CMEs in three dimensions from a single vantage point. Recent advances in heliospheric imaging have demonstrated that a polarized imager is feasible with current component technology.Developing this technology to a high technology readiness level is critical for space weather relevant imaging from either a near‐Earth or deep‐space mission. In this primarily technical review, we developpreliminary hardware requirements for a space weather polarizing heliospheric imager system and outline possible ways to flight qualify and ultimately deploy the technology operationally on upcoming specific missions. We consider deployment as an instrument on NOAA's Deep Space Climate Observatory follow‐on near the Sun‐Earth L1 Lagrange point, as a stand‐alone constellation of smallsats in low Earth orbit, or as an instrument located at the Sun‐Earth L5 Lagrange point. The critical first step is the demonstration of the technology, in either a science or prototype operational mission context., Key Points Polarized heliospheric imaging is a necessary next step for improved space weather predictionPolarized heliospheric imaging is feasible with current technologyPolarization is a useful augmentation to current instruments, either on or off the Earth‐Sun line

We study the properties of 115 coronal holes in the time range from August 2010 to March 2017, the peak velocities of the corresponding high‐speed streams as measured in the ecliptic at 1 AU, and the corresponding changes of the Kp index as marker of their geoeffectiveness. We find that the peak velocities of high‐speed streams depend strongly on both the areas and the co‐latitudes of their solar source coronal holes with regard to the heliospheric latitude of the satellites. Therefore, the co‐latitude of their source coronal hole is an important parameter for the prediction of the high‐speed stream properties near the Earth. We derive the largest solar wind peak velocities normalized to the coronal hole areas for coronal holes located near the solar equator and that they linearly decrease with increasing latitudes of the coronal holes. For coronal holes located at latitudes ≳60°, they turn statistically to zero, indicating that the associated high‐speed streams have a high chance to miss the Earth. Similarly, the Kp index per coronal hole area is highest for the coronal holes located near the solar equator and strongly decreases with increasing latitudes of the coronal holes. We interpret these results as an effect of the three‐dimensional propagation of high‐speed streams in the heliosphere; that is, high‐speed streams arising from coronal holes near the solar equator propagate in direction toward and directly hit the Earth, whereas solar wind streams arising from coronal holes at higher solar latitudes only graze or even miss the Earth., Key Points The peak velocity of high‐speed streams measured in the ecliptic at 1 AU depends on the area and co‐latitude of the source coronal holesAnalogously, the peak Kp index caused by the high‐speed stream depends on the area and co‐latitude of the source coronal holesWe interpret these findings as a result of the three‐dimensional propagation of high‐speed streams in the heliosphere

Magnetic reconnection has been established as the dominant mechanism by which magnetic fields in different regions change topology to create open magnetic field lines that allow energy and momentum to flow into the magnetosphere. One of the persistent problems of magnetic reconnection is the question of whether the process is continuous or intermittent and what input condition(s) might favor one type of reconnection over the other. Observations from imagers that record FUV emissions caused by precipitating cusp ions demonstrate the global nature of magnetic reconnection. Those images show continuous ionospheric emissions even during changing interplanetary magnetic field conditions. On the other hand, in situ observations from polar‐orbiting satellites show distinctive cusp structures in flux distributions of precipitating ions, which are interpreted as the telltale signature of intermittent reconnection. This study uses a modification of the low‐velocity cutoff method, which was previously successfully used to determine the location of the reconnection site, to calculate for the cusp ion distributions the “time since reconnection occurred.” The “time since reconnection” is used to determine the “reconnection time” for the cusp magnetic field lines where these distributions have been observed. The profile of the reconnection time, either continuous or stepped, is a direct measurement of the nature of magnetic reconnection at the reconnection site. This paper will discuss a continuous and pulsed reconnection event from the Polar spacecraft to illustrate the methodology., Key Points Methodology to distinguish pulsed form continuous reconnectionDetermine the reconnection time for cusp magnetic field linesDetermine the reconnection location simultaneously

During a magnetic storm on 23 June 2015, several very intense substorms took place, with signatures observed by multiple spacecraft including DMSP and Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS). At the time of interest, DMSP F18 crossed inbound through a poleward expanding auroral bulge boundary at 23.5 h magnetic local time (MLT), while MMS was located duskward of 22 h MLT during an inward crossing of the expanding plasma sheet boundary. The two spacecraft observed a consistent set of signatures as they simultaneously crossed the reconnection separatrix layer during this very intense reconnection event. These include (1) energy dispersion of the energetic ions and electrons traveling earthward, accompanied with high electron energies in the vicinity of the separatrix; (2) energy dispersion of polar rain electrons, with a high‐energy cutoff; and (3) intense inward convection of the magnetic field lines at the MMS location. The high temporal resolution measurements by MMS provide unprecedented observations of the outermost electron boundary layer. We discuss the relevance of the energy dispersion of the electrons, and their pitch angle distribution, to the spatial and temporal evolution of the boundary layer. The results indicate that the underlying magnetotail magnetic reconnection process was an intrinsically impulsive and the active X‐line was located relatively close to the Earth, approximately at 16–18 RE., Key Points Simultaneous observations of the PSBL during a strong substorm suggest a near‐tail reconnection site being located at 16–18 RE For the first time, we resolve both energy and pitch angle dispersion of the electron evidence that the boundary layer has temporal originFirst observation of thin energetic electron layers in PSBL with thicknesses of the electron gyroscale

As a direct result of magnetic reconnection, plasma sheet fast flows act as primary transporter of mass, flux, and energy in the Earth's magnetotail. During the last decades, these flows were mainly studied within X GSM>−60R E, as observations near or beyond lunar orbit were limited. By using 5 years (2011–2015) of ARTEMIS (Acceleration, Reconnection, Turbulence, and Electrodynamics of the Moons Interaction with the Sun) data, we statistically investigate earthward and tailward flows at around 60 R E downtail. A significant fraction of fast flows is directed earthward, comprising 43% (v x>400 km/s) to 56% (v x>100 km/s) of all observed flows. This suggests that near‐Earth and midtail reconnection are equally probable of occurring on either side of the ARTEMIS downtail distance. For fast convective flows (v ⊥ x>400 km/s), this fraction of earthward flows is reduced to about 29%, which is in line with reconnection as source of these flows and a downtail decreasing Alfvén velocity. More than 60% of tailward convective flows occur in the dusk sector (as opposed to the dawn sector), while earthward convective flows are nearly symmetrically distributed between the two sectors for low AL (>−400 nT) and asymmetrically distributed toward the dusk sector for high AL (− 60R E) is likely symmetric across the tail during weak substorms and asymmetric toward the dusk sector for strong substorms, as the dawn‐dusk asymmetric nature of reconnection onset in the near‐Earth region progresses downtail., Key Points Around 43–56% of fast flows near lunar orbit are directed earthwardThe percentage of flows greater than a threshold magnitude that are tailward increases as the threshold increasesTailward convective flows and fast earthward convective flows are preferentially found at dusk

We evaluate the large‐scale energy budget of magnetic reconnection utilizing an analytical time‐dependent impulsive reconnection model and a numerical 2‐D MHD simulation. With the generalization to compressible plasma, we can investigate changes in the thermal, kinetic, and magnetic energies. We study these changes in three different regions: (a) the region defined by the outflowing plasma (outflow region, OR), (b) the region of compressed magnetic fields above/below the OR (traveling compression region, TCR), and (c) the region trailing the OR and TCR (wake). For incompressible plasma, we find that the decrease inside the OR is compensated by the increase in kinetic energy. However, for the general compressible case, the decrease in magnetic energy inside the OR is not sufficient to explain the increase in thermal and kinetic energy. Hence, energy from other regions needs to be considered. We find that the decrease in thermal and magnetic energy in the wake, together with the decrease in magnetic energy inside the OR, is sufficient to feed the increase in kinetic and thermal energies in the OR and the increase in magnetic and thermal energies inside the TCR. That way, the energy budget is balanced, but consequently, not all magnetic energy is converted into kinetic and thermal energies of the OR. Instead, a certain fraction gets transfered into the TCR. As an upper limit of the efficiency of reconnection (magnetic energy → kinetic energy) we find η eff=1/2. A numerical simulation is used to include a finite thickness of the current sheet, which shows the importance of the pressure gradient inside the OR for the conversion of kinetic energy into thermal energy., Key Points Grad P inside plasma outflow region reduces kinetic energy and enhances thermal energyWake region and TCR must be considered for full energy balanceReconnection acts as a refrigerator

Reconnection within planetary magnetotails is responsible for locally energizing particles and changing the magnetic topology. Its role in terms of global magnetospheric dynamics can involve changing the mass and flux content of the magnetosphere. We have identified reconnection related events in spacecraft magnetometer data recorded during Cassini's exploration of Saturn's magnetotail. The events are identified from deflections in the north‐south component of the magnetic field, significant above a background level. Data were selected to provide full tail coverage, encompassing the dawn and dusk flanks as well as the deepest midnight orbits. Overall 2094 reconnection related events were identified, with an average rate of 5.0 events per day. The majority of events occur in clusters (within 3 h of other events). We examine changes in this rate in terms of local time and latitude coverage, taking seasonal effects into account. The observed reconnection rate peaks postmidnight with more infrequent but steady loss seen on the dusk flank. We estimate the mass loss from the event catalog and find it to be insufficient to balance the input from the moon Enceladus. Several reasons for this discrepancy are discussed. The reconnection X line location appears to be highly variable, though a statistical separation between events tailward and planetward of the X line is observed at a radial distance of between 20 and 30R S downtail. The small sample size at dawn prevents comprehensive statistical comparison with the dusk flank observations in terms of flux closure., Key Points New algorithm developed to find reconnection related events in spacecraft magnetometer dataThe 2094 events identified across the magnetotail at an average rate of 5.0 per dayReconnection X line location appears to be highly variable

It has been suggested that the Sun may evolve into a period of lower activity over the 21st century. This study examines the potential climate impacts of the onset of an extreme “Maunder Minimum‐like” grand solar minimum using a comprehensive global climate model. Over the second half of the 21st century, the scenario assumes a decrease in total solar irradiance of 0.12% compared to a reference Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 experiment. The decrease in solar irradiance cools the stratopause (∼1 hPa) in the annual and global mean by 1.2 K. The impact on global mean near‐surface temperature is small (∼−0.1 K), but larger changes in regional climate occur during the stratospheric dynamically active seasons. In Northern Hemisphere wintertime, there is a weakening of the stratospheric westerly jet by up to ∼3–4 m s−1, with the largest changes occurring in January–February. This is accompanied by a deepening of the Aleutian Low at the surface and an increase in blocking over Northern Europe and the North Pacific. There is also an equatorward shift in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude eddy‐driven jet in austral spring. The occurrence of an amplified regional response during winter and spring suggests a contribution from a top‐down pathway for solar‐climate coupling; this is tested using an experiment in which ultraviolet (200–320 nm) radiation is decreased in isolation of other changes. The results show that a large decline in solar activity over the 21st century could have important impacts on the stratosphere and regional surface climate., Key Points A future decline in solar activity would not offset projected global warmingA future decline in solar activity could have larger regional effects in winterTop‐down mechanism contributes to Northern Hemisphere regional response

We present a case study of an event from 20 August (day 232) of 2006, when the Cassini spacecraft was sampling the region near 32 RS and 22 h LT in Saturn's magnetotail. Cassini observed a strong northward‐to‐southward turning of the magnetic field, which is interpreted as the signature of dipolarization of the field as seen by the spacecraft planetward of the reconnection X line. This event was accompanied by very rapid (up to ~1500 km s−1) thermal plasma flow toward the planet. At energies above 28 keV, energetic hydrogen and oxygen ion flow bursts were observed to stream planetward from a reconnection site downtail of the spacecraft. Meanwhile, a strong field‐aligned beam of energetic hydrogen was also observed to stream tailward, likely from an ionospheric source. Saturn kilometric radiation emissions were stimulated shortly after the observation of the dipolarization. We discuss the field, plasma, energetic particle, and radio observations in the context of the impact this reconnection event had on global magnetospheric dynamics., Key Points Rare observation of strong planetward flow following Saturn tail reconnectionIon flows at speeds of up to 1500 km/s observed, indicating energetic eventData imply quasi‐steady Vasyliunas‐type reconnection beyond 32 RS

We address the claim that an increase in the flux of neutrons detected by the Neutron Spectrometer (NS) on the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft in orbit about Mercury at 15:45 UTC on 4 June 2011 was generated by the impact of energetic ions onto spacecraft. We find this claim to be unwarranted. The claim is grounded on the erroneous assumption that the NS singles count rate is triggered only by energetic ions. Rather, because any mix of energetic ions, electrons, photons, and neutrons can trigger NS singles, these data do not provide a reliable constraint on the presence of energetic ions. The absence of an enhancement in the count rate of 1635‐keV gamma rays, as monitored by the MESSENGER Gamma‐Ray Spectrometer, provides independent evidence that a fluence of energetic protons sufficiently high to generate the neutron enhancement was not present during the neutron event. The interpretation that currently best matches the available data is that the neutron enhancement on 4 June 2011 was the result of solar neutrons., Key Points We address claim that neutrons from a 4 June 2011 event at Mercury are nonsolarThe claim is based on an erroneous assumption about instrument singles countsThe best interpretation of the neutron event is that the neutrons have a solar origin