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Seed‐based restoration is one of the most difficult challenges for dryland restoration. Identifying environmental conditions that drive variation in seed and seedling mortality across similar restoration efforts could increase understanding of when and where restoration outcomes are likely to be favourable and identify new tools and strategies to improve outcomes.We asked how variation in a suite of environmental predictors influenced germination, emergence, seedling establishment and juvenile survival of four commonly sown perennial grass species across 33 seeding experiments distributed over an ~160,000‐km2 area of the Great Basin, a cold desert system in the western United States.Across experiments, we observed wide variation in the rates of four demographic transitions and wide variation in environmental conditions experienced by plants at each stage. For all species, higher precipitation during the first 30 days following seeding was associated with an increase in germination. Conversely, higher soil temperature over this same time period was associated with a significant decrease in germination and emergence, and soil temperature was associated with a substantial portion of the variation in germination and emergence probabilities observed across our seeding experiments.Within the range of precipitation variation observed, we were unable to detect a significant relationship between seedling establishment the first growing season and cumulative precipitation the first year, precipitation during the first spring growing season or annual climatic water deficit (CWD) the first year. Higher CWD the second growing season reduced seedling survival over that time period.Synthesis and applications. Our results show higher soil temperature negatively impacts grass seedling establishment. Restoration efforts should be prioritized when seasonal or subseasonal temperature forecasts indicate likely periods of below average temperatures. These results also indicate that climate warming will make restoration even more difficult, with our model estimates suggesting the 2°C increase in temperature expected in the Great Basin over the coming decades will decrease germination and emergence by about 30%. Lastly, while our field‐based approach provided insight into short‐term drivers of mortality, it did not provide insight into drivers of longer term survival, suggesting a need for further work on predicting long‐term restoration outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drylands support over 2 billion people and are major providers of critical ecosystem goods and services across the globe. Drylands, however, are one of the most susceptible biomes to degradation. International programmes widely recognize dryland restoration as key to combating global dryland degradation and ensuring future global sustainability. While the need to restore drylands is widely recognized and large amounts of resources are allocated to these activities, rates of restoration success remain overwhelmingly low., Advances in understanding the ecology of dryland systems have not yielded proportional advances in our ability to restore these systems. To accelerate progress in dryland restoration, we argue for moving the field of restoration ecology beyond conceptual frameworks of ecosystem dynamics and towards quantitative, predictive systems models that capture the probabilistic nature of ecosystem response to management., To do this, we first provide an overview of conceptual dryland restoration frameworks. We then describe how quantitative systems framework can advance and improve conceptual restoration frameworks, resulting in a greater ability to forecast restoration outcomes and evaluate economic efficiency and decision-making. Lastly, using a case study from the western United States, we show how a systems approach can be integrated with and used to advance current conceptual frameworks of dryland restoration., Synthesis and applications. Systems models for restoration do not replace conceptual models but complement and extend these modelling approaches by enhancing our ability to solve restoration problems and forecast outcomes under changing conditions. Such forecasting of future outcomes is necessary to monetize restoration benefits and cost and to maximize economic benefit of limited restoration dollars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Establishing native forbs is crucial for invasive plant management and restoring a desirable plant community. Our objectives were to determine (1) if increasing forb seed density results in increased forb establishment; (2) if a species-rich mixture of forbs has greater establishment and survivorship than a single species; and (3) if mixtures of forbs are more competitive with Spotted knapweed ( Centaurea maculosa) than a forb monoculture. To test our first two objectives, we seeded monocultures of Purple coneflower ( Echinacea angustifolia), Arrowleaf balsamroot ( Balsamorhiza sagittata), Annual sunflower ( Helianthus annuus), Dotted gayfeather ( Liatris punctata), Western white yarrow ( Achillea millefolium), Sticky geranium ( Geranium viscosissimum), as well as a mixture of all forbs. Pots were seeded at 800 or 2,000 seeds/m2 and watered twice or thrice weekly. The highest seed density produced the highest plant density, which averaged 4.35 plants/pot. The density of the mixture was similar to the mean density seen for individual species, and it doubled in response to the highest seed density. To test our third objective, Spotted knapweed and Purple coneflower were arranged in an addition series matrix with a maximum total density of 4,000 seeds/pot. We found that the forb mixture was seven times more competitive with Spotted knapweed than Purple coneflower alone. Using a mixture of forbs rather than a single species enhances forb establishment in various and unpredictable environments because the mixture possesses a variety of traits that may match year–year and site–site conditions. Once established, the mixture may have a greater chance of persisting than a monoculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]