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Objective. This real-world analysis assessed baseline demographics/characteristics and treatment patterns/effectiveness in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) initiating tofacitinib (TOF) in the US CorEvitas RA Registry. Methods. The primary analysis of this study included patients with RA initiating TOF with a 12-month follow-up visit from November 2012 to January 2021. Outcomes included baseline demographics/characteristics and TOF initiation/discontinuation reasons, treatment patterns, and effectiveness (disease activity and patient-reported outcomes [PROs] at 12 months); the primary effectiveness outcome was Clinical Disease Activity Index low disease activity (CDAI LDA). All data, analyzed descriptively, were stratified by TOF regimen (monotherapy vs combination therapy), line of therapy (second- to fourth-line), time of initiation (2012-2014, 2015-2017, or 2018-2020), and dose (5 mg twice daily vs 11 mg once daily). Results. Of 2874 patients with RA who initiated TOF, 1298 had a qualifying 12-month follow-up visit; of these, 43.1% were monotherapy and 66.5% were fourth-line therapy. Overall, tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (40.8%) were the most common treatment immediately prior to TOF initiation. The most common reason for TOF initiation (among those with a reason) was lack/loss of efficacy of prior treatment (67.7%). Overall, at 12 months, 31.9% and 10.1% had achieved CDAI LDA and remission, respectively; 22.4%, 10.4%, and 5% had achieved = 20%, = 50%, and = 70% improvement in modified American College of Rheumatology core set measures, respectively; and improvements in PROs were observed. Effectiveness was generally similar across TOF stratifications. Conclusion. TOF effectiveness (CDAI LDA) was observed in a US real-world setting of patients with RA regardless of TOF regimen, line of therapy, time of initiation, and dose. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives To determine whether an expanded antigen-specific ACPA profile predicts changes in disease activity in patients with RA initiating biologics. Methods The study included participants from a prospective, non-randomized, observational RA cohort. For this sub-study, treatment groups of interest included biologic-naïve initiating anti-TNF, biologic-exposed initiating non-TNF, and biologic-naïve initiating abatacept. ACPAs to 25 citrullinated peptides were measured using banked enrolment serum. Principal component analysis (PCA) was performed and associations of resulting principal component (PC) scores (in quartiles) and anti-CCP3 antibody (≤15, 16–250 or >250 U/ml) with EULAR (good/moderate/none) treatment response at 6 months were examined using adjusted ordinal regression models. Results Participants (n  = 1092) had a mean age of 57 (13) years and 79% were women. At 6 months, 68.5% achieved a moderate/good EULAR response. There were three PCs that cumulatively explained 70% of variation in ACPA values. In models including the three components and anti-CCP3 antibody category, only PC1 and PC2 were associated with treatment response. The highest quartile for PC1 (odds ratio [OR] 1.76; 95% CI: 1.22, 2.53) and for PC2 (OR 1.74; 95% CI: 1.23, 2.46) were associated with treatment response after multivariable adjustment. There was no evidence of interaction between PCs and treatment group in EULAR responses (P -value for interaction >0.1). Conclusion An expanded ACPA profile appears to be more strongly associated with biologic treatment response in RA than commercially available anti-CCP3 antibody levels. However, further enhancements to PCA will be needed to effectively prioritize between different biologics available for the treatment of RA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The term "immuno-autonomics" has been coined to describe an emerging field evaluating the interaction between stress, autonomic nervous system (ANS), and inflammation. The field remains largely unknown among practicing rheumatologists. Our objective was to evaluate the perspectives of rheumatologists regarding the role of stress in the activity and management of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A 31-item survey was conducted with 231 rheumatologists. Rheumatologists were asked to assess the role of stress in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease activity and were provided with information regarding immuno-autonomics. They were asked to consider how immuno-autonomics resonated with their patient management needs. The majority of rheumatologists are eager to better understand non-response, believe that stress biology and ANS dysfunction interfere with disease activity, and embrace the theory that measurement of ANS via next-generation HRV may be able to evaluate autonomic dysfunction and the biology of stress. Rheumatologists are open to the idea that quantitative measurement of ANS function using next-generation HRV can be a helpful tool to RA practice. The majority agree that ANS state influences RA disease control and that quantitative measures of ANS state are helpful to RA practice. Rheumatologists also agree that patients with poor ANS function may be at risk for not responding adequately to conventional, biologic, or targeted synthetic DMARDs. Almost all would use an in-office test to quantitatively measure ANS using next-generation HRV. This study shows that rheumatologists are open to embracing evaluation of ANS function as a possible tool in the management and treatment of RA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• In this analysis of 1698 biologic DMARD (bDMARD) initiations we tracked LDL-C, CRP and disease activity after therapy with different bDMARDs. • Reynolds Risk Score (RRS) decreased after therapy with tocilizumab, with marked increases in LDL-C and decreases in CRP. • The impact of different biologics on Framingham risk score - which does not measure inflammation - was also calculated for context. • As expected increases in lipids after therapy with TCZ led to an increase in Framingham risk score. • Changes in CRP were associated with changes in LDL-C. This mediator association was observed for all bDMARDs. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the main cause of mortality in Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA). To investigate the effect of biologic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) on lipids and CVD risk and evaluate associations with changes in systemic inflammation. Patients with RA initiating a bDMARD were evaluated at baseline, 3 and 6 months later. Longitudinal mixed effects models examined the association of individual biologics with changes in lipid levelsm Reynolds Risk Score (RRS) and Framingham risk score. Mediation by CRP, clinical disease activity index (CDAI) or swollen joint count on lipid changes were modeled using structural equation models. The correlation between CRP changes and LDL changes was estimated. Changes of LDL-C at 6 months among patients with low baseline LDL-C (<90 mg/dl) vs higher baseline LDL-C(90–130, and >130 mg/dl) were compared. The association between LDL-C changes across baseline LDL-C groups and disease activity improvement was evaluated. 1698 bDMARD initiations were analyzed. Patients initiating tocilizumab had a significant increase in lipid levels but RRS at 3 and 6 months was similar across all biologics. Framingham risk score increased for patients treated with tocilizumab. Mediator analyses were statistically significant for the effects of CRP on lipid levels. Increases in LDL-C from baseline were independent of clinical response. An association of changes from baseline CRP and LDL-C were observed across all of the bDMARDs studied. Moderate increases in lipid levels on bDMARD treatment were not associated with an increased CVD risk by RRS regardless of the bDMARD initiated. Changes in CRP were significantly associated with changes in lipids in a mediator analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To assess predictors of subclinical RA-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD) using quantitative lung densitometry (qLD). Methods RA patients underwent multi-detector row CT scanning at baseline and after an average of 39 months. Scans were analysed with qLD for the percentage of lung parenchyma with high attenuation areas (%HAA: the percentage of voxels of –600 to –250 Hounsfield units). Additionally, a pulmonary radiologist calculated an expert radiologist scoring (ERS) for RA-ILD features. Generalized linear models were used to identify indicators of baseline %HAA and predictors of %HAA change. Results Baseline %HAA was assessed in 193 RA patients and 106 had repeat qLD assessment. %HAA was correlated with ERS (Spearman's rho = 0.261; P  < 0.001). Significant indicators of high baseline %HAA (>10% of lung parenchyma with high attenuation) included female sex, higher pack-years of smoking, higher BMI and anti-CCP ≥200 units, collectively contributing an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.88 (95% CI 0.81, 0.95). Predictors of %HAA increase, occurring in 49% with repeat qLD, included higher baseline %HAA, presence of mucin 5B (MUC5B) minor allele and absence of HLA-DRB1 shared epitope (area under the receiver operator curve = 0.69; 95% CI 0.58, 0.79). The association of the MUC5B minor allele with %HAA change was higher among men and those with higher cumulative smoking. Within the group with increased %HAA, anti-CCP level was significantly associated with a greater increase in %HAA. Conclusions %HAA, assessed with qLD, was linked to several known risk factors for RA-ILD and may represent a more quantitative method to identify RA-ILD and track progression than expert radiologist interpretation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Comparative effectiveness research can inform treatment decisions regarding the choice of biologics for rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The objective of this study is to compare the efficacy of tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFis) and non‐TNFis (nTNFis) in real‐world patients with RA and past TNFi experience. Methods: Comparative Effectiveness Registry to study Therapies for Arthritis and Inflammatory Conditions (CERTAIN) was nested within the United States Corrona registry. Adult patients with RA with moderate to high disease activity (Clinical Disease Activity Index [CDAI] >10) with exposure to one or more prior TNFis who were switching to a new TNFi or nTNFi (choice of therapy per physician choice) were enrolled. The primary outcome was the achievement of low disease activity (LDA) at 12 months (CDAI ≤10; disease activity score in 28 joints based on C‐reactive protein [DAS28‐CRP] <2.67). Propensity score modeling probability of treatment with nTNFi versus TNFi adjusted for imbalanced factors. The response rate was modeled using mixed‐effect logistic regression models, adjusting for a priori and imbalanced baseline factors and accounting for the practice‐related treatment patterns. Results: After applying inclusion criteria, 939 biologic initiations were analyzed, 505 (53.7%) nTNFis and 434 (46.3%) TNFis. Patients who started nTNFis were significantly more likely to have longer disease duration, more prior TNFi use, and higher patient fatigue scores and were more likely to have government insurance. At 12 months, 28% of nTNFi and 24% of TNFi initiators were in LDA by CDAI, and 22% of nTNFi and 19% of TNFi initiators were in LDA by DAS28‐CRP. After multivariable adjustment and controlling for the influence of site‐related confounding, there were no significant differences in the likelihood to reach LDA by CDAI (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78‐1.62) or DAS28‐CRP (aOR = 1.16; 95% CI, 0.77‐1.75). Conclusion: In this large, real‐world study enrolling patients with RA with prior TNFi exposure, switching to an nTNFi biologic was comparable in its clinical effectiveness with switching to another TNFi. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To compare the Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) with the Routine Assessment of Patient Index Data 3 (RAPID3) from 2 large United States registries.Methods: Using a cross section of clinic visits within 2 registries, we determined whether the outcome of each metric would place the patient in remission (REM), low (LDA), moderate (MDA), or high disease activity (HDA) using the CDAI, with the assumption that a patient in MDA or HDA would be a candidate for acceleration of treatment.Results: We identified significant disparities between the 2 indices in final disease categorization using each index system. For patients identified in LDA by CDAI, RAPID3 identified 20.4% and 28.3% as LDA in Corrona and the Brigham and Women's Rheumatoid Arthritis Sequential Study (BRASS), respectively. For patients identified as MDA by CDAI, RAPID3 identified 36.2% and 31.1% as MDA in Corrona and BRASS, respectively, with the greatest disparities within each system identified for LDA and MDA activity by the CDAI (20.4% and 36.2% agreement of RAPID3 with CDAI, respectively, in Corrona and 28.3% and 31.1% agreement in BRASS). Overall comparison between CDAI and RAPID3 in the 4 disease categories resulted in estimated κ = 0.285 in both. The RAPID3 scores indicated the potential for treat-to-target acceleration in 34.4% of patients in REM or LDA based on CDAI in Corrona and 27.7% in BRASS, respectively.Conclusion: The RAPID3, based on patient-reported outcomes, shows differences with CDAI categories of disease activity. The components of CDAI are not highly correlated with RAPID3, except for patient global assessment. These differences could significantly affect the decision to advance treatment when using a treat-to-target regimen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Though randomized controlled trials have demonstrated relatively comparable clinical outcomes with triple therapy (methotrexate [MTX], sulfasalazine [SSZ], and hydroxychloroquine [HCQ]) compared to combination therapy (tumor necrosis factor inhibitor [TNFi] and MTX), real-world experiences comparing these strategies have not been well studied.Methods: We evaluated the clinical effectiveness and effects of medication discontinuation of triple therapy with MTX/SSZ/HCQ versus combination therapy with TNFi/MTX in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients enrolled in the Corrona RA Drug Safety & Effectiveness Registry. Propensity score matching was used to match patients up to a ratio of 1:3 to adjust for imbalances between treatment groups, with stratification performed according to biologics-naive or biologics-exposed status of study participants.Results: Patients eligible for analysis in this study included biologics-naive RA patients (3,926 who received combination therapy with TNFi/MTX and 262 who received triple therapy with MTX/SSZ/HCQ) and biologics-exposed RA patients (3,365 who received combination therapy with TNFi/MTX and 130 patients who received triple therapy with MTX/SSZ/HCQ). Before propensity score matching, numerous factors were imbalanced between the treatment groups, with triple therapy patients generally being older, having a longer disease duration of RA and lower RA disease activity, and more likely having a history of malignancy and other comorbidities. After matching, almost all (93-98%) triple therapy patients could be matched to TNFi/MTX therapy patients, and cohort characteristics were generally well balanced. Discontinuation of medication was greater in triple therapy patients referent to TNFi/MTX therapy patients (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] of 2.17 [95% confidence interval 1.63-2.88] in the biologics-naive group; adjusted HR of 1.51 [95% confidence interval 1.06-2.15] in the biologics-exposed group). At 6 months, the proportion of biologics-naive patients attaining low disease activity was significantly greater in the TNFi/MTX treatment group (49.2% in TNFi/MTX therapy patients versus 33.3% in triple therapy patients), as was the mean change in Clinical Disease Activity Index scores (-9.3 units versus -5.5 [95% confidence interval -1.5, -6.1]). Corresponding results in the biologics-exposed patients numerically favored TNFi/MTX therapy compared to triple therapy but did not reach statistical significance.Conclusion: Few patients receive triple therapy with MTX/SSZ/HCQ in the US. In the present study, drug persistence and clinical effectiveness outcomes were less favorable in triple therapy patients compared to TNFi/MTX therapy patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) therapies are often the first biologic therapy used to treat rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. However, a substantial fraction of patients do not respond adequately to TNFi therapies. A test with the ability to predict response would inform therapeutic decision-making and improve clinical and financial outcomes. A 32-question decision-impact survey was conducted with 248 rheumatologists to gauge the perceived clinical utility of a novel test that predicts inadequate response to TNFi therapies in RA patients. Participants were informed about the predictive characteristics of the test and asked to indicate prescribing decisions based on four result scenarios. Overall, rheumatologists had a favorable view of the test: 80.2% agreed that it would improve medical decision-making, 92.3% said it would increase their confidence when making prescribing decisions, and 81.5% said it would be useful when considering TNFi therapies. Rheumatologists would be more likely to prescribe a TNFi therapy when the test reported that no signal of non-response was detected (79.8%) and less likely to prescribe a TNFi therapy when a signal of non-response was detected (11.3%–25.4%). Rheumatologists (84.7%) agreed that payers should provide coverage for such a test. This study shows that rheumatologists support the clinical need for a test to predict inadequate response to TNFi therapies. Test results were perceived to lead to changes in prescribing behaviors as results instill confidence in the ordering rheumatologist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We compared 5‐year adverse event (AE) incidence rates (IRs) between patients initiating tofacitinib and those initiating new biological disease‐modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) within the United States (US) Corrona RA registry. Methods: IRs (number of first events/100 patient‐years) of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), serious infection events (SIEs), herpes zoster (HZ), malignancies, and death were estimated among tofacitinib and bDMARD initiators, regardless of dose/schedule, between November 6, 2012 (US Food and Drug Administration tofacitinib approval), and July 31, 2018 (follow‐up through January 31, 2019). Propensity score (PS) methods were used to control for nonrandom prescribing practices. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated to compare rates using multivariable‐adjusted Cox regression. Different risk windows were used for acute (MACE, SIEs, HZ, and venous thromboembolic events [VTEs]) and long‐term (malignancy and death) events. VTEs were assessed descriptively. Results: For MACE, SIEs, and HZ, 1999 (3152.1 patient‐years) and 8358 (12 869.4 years) tofacitinib and bDMARD initiators were included, respectively; for malignancy/death, 1999 (4505.6 patient‐years) and 6354 (16 670.8 patient‐years) initiators were included, respectively. AE rates were similar across cohorts, except for HZ, which was significantly higher with tofacitinib versus bDMARDs (PS‐trimmed adjusted HR 2.32; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.43‐3.75). There were 45 (zero serious) and 88 (five serious) HZ events with tofacitinib and bDMARDs, respectively. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated similar results. VTE IRs (95% CI) were 0.29 (0.13‐0.54) and 0.33 (0.24‐0.45) for tofacitinib and bDMARDs, respectively. Conclusion: In this registry analysis, both cohorts had similar MACE, SIE, malignancy, death, and VTE rates; HZ rates were higher for tofacitinib initaitors than for bDMARD initiators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) monotherapy may enhance adherence and decrease adverse events compared to combination therapy with conventional synthetic DMARDs (csDMARDs); however, persistence with bDMARD monotherapy has not been extensively studied. We explore persistence of etanercept monotherapy and monotherapy with other tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFis) among patients first achieving remission/low disease activity (LDA) while on combination therapy with csDMARDs and a TNFi. Using Corrona registry data, the percentage of patients persistent with the index TNFi (etanercept versus other TNFis) over 6 and 12 months was determined. Factors influencing persistence and treatment patterns at 6 and 12 months were examined. Among 617 eligible patients, 56% of 182 patients on etanercept and 45% of 435 patients on other TNFis persisted with monotherapy at 6 months, 46% and 33%, respectively, at 12 months. Across first-line and subsequent biologic DMARDs, etanercept persistence was greater than other TNFi persistence by 10.8% (95% CI 2.1%, 19.6%) at 6 months and 11.4% (95% CI 0.9%, 21.9%) at 12 months. Patients on other TNFis were more likely to require reintroduction of csDMARD after 6 months (45% versus 35% for etanercept). Remission was the key predictor of persistence for both etanercept and other TNFi monotherapies. This retrospective, cohort study of registry data reflecting real-world practice indicates patients who achieve remission/LDA with combination csDMARD and TNFi therapy may successfully transition to TNFi monotherapy. Patients on etanercept monotherapy experienced greater persistence and less frequent reintroduction of a csDMARD than was observed for patients on other TNFi monotherapies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: This study evaluated the comparative effectiveness of a tumour necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) versus a non-TNFi (biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) and targeted synthetic DMARDs (tsDMARDs)) as the first-line treatment following conventional synthetic DMARDs, as well as potential modifiers of response, observed in US clinical practice.Methods: Data were from a large US healthcare registry (Consortium of Rheumatology Researchers of North America Rheumatoid Arthritis Registry). The analysis included patients (aged ≥18 years) with a documented diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), a valid baseline Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) score of >2.8 and no prior bDMARD or tsDMARD use. Outcomes were captured at 1-year postinitiation of a TNFi (adalimumab, etanercept, certolizumab pegol, golimumab or infliximab) or a non-TNFi (abatacept, tocilizumab, rituximab, anakinra or tofacitinib) and included CDAI, 28-Joint Modified Disease Activity Score, patient-reported outcomes (including the Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index, EuroQol-5 Dimension score, sleep, anxiety, morning stiffness and fatigue) and rates of anaemia. Groups were propensity score-matched at baseline to account for potential confounding.Results: There were no statistically significant differences observed between the TNFi and non-TNFi treatment groups for outcomes assessed, except the incidence rate ratio for anaemia, which slightly favoured the TNFi group (19.04 per 100 person-years) versus the non-TNFi group (24.01 per 100 person-years, p=0.03). No potential effect modifiers were found to be statistically significant.Conclusions: The findings of no significant differences in outcomes between first-line TNF versus first-line non-TNF groups support RA guidelines, which recommend individualised care based on clinical judgement and consideration of patient preferences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Comorbidity burden and obesity may affect treatment response in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Few real-world studies have evaluated the effect of comorbidity burden or obesity on the effectiveness of tocilizumab (TCZ). This study evaluated TCZ effectiveness in treating RA patients with high versus low comorbidity burden and obesity versus nonobesity in US clinical practice.Methods: Patients in the Corrona RA registry who initiated TCZ were stratified by low or high comorbidity burden using a modified Charlson Comorbidity Index (mCCI) and by obese or nonobese status using body mass index (BMI). Improvements in disease activity and functionality after TCZ initiation were compared for the above strata of patients at 6 and 12 months after adjusting for statistically significant differences in baseline characteristics.Results: We identified patients with high (mCCI ≥ 2; n = 195) and low (mCCI < 2; n = 575) comorbidity burden and patients categorized as obese (BMI ≥ 30; n = 356) and nonobese (BMI < 30; n = 449) who were treated with TCZ. Most patients (> 95%) were biologic experienced and about one-third of patients received TCZ as monotherapy, with no significant differences between patients by comorbidity burden or obesity status. Improvement in disease activity and functionality at 6 and 12 months was similar between groups, regardless of comorbidity burden or obesity status.Conclusion: In this real-world analysis, TCZ was frequently used to treat patients with high comorbidity burden or obesity. Effectiveness of TCZ did not differ by comorbidity or obesity status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate maintenance of remission/low disease activity (LDA) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) who achieved remission/LDA with etanercept (ETN) plus a conventional synthetic disease‐modifying antirheumatic drug (csDMARD) and to compare patients who discontinued csDMARD to receive ETN monotherapy (Mono) with those remaining on combination therapy (Combo). Methods: Patients from the Corrona RA registry between October 1, 2001, and August 31, 2017, were eligible. The index date for the Mono cohort was the csDMARD discontinuation date; the index visit for the Combo cohort was estimated from time between ETN initiation and csDMARD discontinuation in the Mono cohort. The main outcome calculated was maintenance of remission/LDA. Patients were censored if they switched to or added a biologic DMARD, discontinued ETN, when a csDMARD was reintroduced (Mono), or if methotrexate increased more than 5 mg/d (Combo). Trimming was used to balance demographic and clinical characteristics between groups. Cox regression models were adjusted for the remaining differences across groups. Results: We identified 182 Mono and 403 Combo patients; 120 Mono and 207 Combo patients remained after trimming. Most patients (approximately 80%) were biologic medication–naive before initiating ETN. At 24 months postindex, modeled percentages of patients remaining in remission/LDA were 75% for Mono and 86% for Combo (overall adjusted P = 0.057). More patients were censored for therapy change in Mono than in Combo groups (37% versus 5%), largely due to reintroduction of csDMARDs in the Mono group. Conclusion: Many patients with RA who achieved remission/LDA on combination therapy maintained remission/LDA with ETN monotherapy for 2 years after csDMARD discontinuation. ETN monotherapy may be a viable option for patients who discontinue csDMARDs after achieving LDA/remission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Accurate prediction of treatment responses in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients can provide valuable information on effective drug selection. Anti–tumor necrosis factor (anti‐TNF) drugs are an important second‐line treatment after methotrexate, the classic first‐line treatment for RA. However, patient heterogeneity hinders identification of predictive biomarkers and accurate modeling of anti‐TNF drug responses. This study was undertaken to investigate the usefulness of machine learning to assist in developing predictive models for treatment response. Methods: Using data on patient demographics, baseline disease assessment, treatment, and single‐nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array from the Dialogue on Reverse Engineering Assessment and Methods (DREAM): Rheumatoid Arthritis Responder Challenge, we created a Gaussian process regression model to predict changes in the Disease Activity Score in 28 joints (DAS28) for the patients and to classify them into either the responder or the nonresponder group. This model was developed and cross‐validated using data from 1,892 RA patients. It was evaluated using an independent data set from 680 patients. We examined the effectiveness of the similarity modeling and the contribution of individual features. Results: In the cross‐validation tests, our method predicted changes in DAS28 (ΔDAS28), with a correlation coefficient of 0.405. It correctly classified responses from 78% of patients. In the independent test, this method achieved a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.393 in predicting ΔDAS28. Gaussian process regression effectively remapped the feature space and identified subpopulations that do not respond well to anti‐TNF treatments. Genetic SNP biomarkers showed small contributions in the prediction when added to the clinical models. This was the best‐performing model in the DREAM Challenge. Conclusion: The model described here shows promise in guiding treatment decisions in clinical practice, based primarily on clinical profiles with additional genetic information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective. Guidelines suggest that rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients with previously treated solid malignancy may be treated as patients without such history. The recommendation is based on limited evidence, and rheumatologists and patients are frequently hesitant to start or continue biologic therapy after a cancer diagnosis. The objective of this study was to describe biologic use in real-world patients with RA following a malignancy diagnosis. Methods. RA patients enrolled in the Corrona registry and diagnosed with solid malignancy with at least 1 followup visit within 12 months after diagnosis were included in this analysis. The proportion of patients continuing or initiating biological/targeted synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (bDMARD/tsDMARD) after diagnosis was estimated. Median time to initiation of bDMARD/tsDMARD after diagnosis was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the proportion initiating biologic treatment in 6-month time intervals was estimated using the life-table method. Results. There were 880 patients who met inclusion criteria with 2585 person-years total followup time postdiagnosis. Of those, 367 (41.7%) were treated with bDMARD/tsDMARD within 12 months preceding malignancy, of whom 270 (30.7%) were taking such agents at first postdiagnosis visit. Forty-four (5%) switched biologic agents within 36 months and an additional 90 patients (10.2%) started a biologic. The majority of bDMARD/tsDMARD initiations during followup was a tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi; 53.5%). Conclusion. In real-world practice, nearly one-third of RA patients with a cancer diagnosis were treated with systemic therapy in the immediate visit after malignancy diagnosis and a considerable percentage of malignancy survivors initiated biologic therapy within 3 years. The majority of bDMARD/tsDMARD initiations post-malignancy diagnosis was a TNFi. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To develop and evaluate an adjusted score for the multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) test to account for the effects of age, sex and adiposity in patients with RA. Methods Two models were developed to adjust MBDA score for age, sex and adiposity, using either serum leptin concentration or BMI as proxies for adiposity. Two cohorts were studied. A cohort of 325 781 RA patients who had undergone commercial MBDA testing and had data for age, sex and serum leptin concentration was used for both models. A cohort of 1411 patients from five studies/registries with BMI data was used only for the BMI-adjusted MBDA score. Univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses evaluated the adjusted MBDA scores and conventional clinical measures as predictors of radiographic progression, assessed in terms of modified total Sharp score (ΔmTSS). Results Two models were developed, based on findings that MBDA score was higher in females than males and increased with age, leptin concentration and BMI. In pairwise regression analyses, the leptin-adjusted (P = 0.00066) and BMI-adjusted (P = 0.0027) MBDA scores were significant independent predictors of ΔmTSS after adjusting for DAS28-CRP, whereas DAS28-CRP was not, after adjusting for leptin-adjusted (P = 0.74) or BMI-adjusted (P = 0.87) MBDA score. Moreover, the leptin-adjusted MBDA score was a significant predictor of ΔmTSS after adjusting for the BMI-adjusted MBDA score (P = 0.025) or the original MBDA score (0.027), whereas the opposite was not true. Conclusion Leptin-adjusted MBDA score significantly adds information to DAS28-CRP and the original MBDA score in predicting radiographic progression. It may offer improved clinical utility for personalized management of RA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Inflammation and anti-inflammatory treatments might influence the risk of diabetes. The objective of this study was to assess factors associated with incident diabetes in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods: The study population consisted of RA patients from a multi-center cohort study, Corrona. To assess risk associated with disease modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) exposure, we assessed five mutually exclusive DMARD groups. Additionally, we assessed the risk associated with body mass index (BMI, <25, 25–30, >30 kg/m2) and glucocorticoid usage. Incident cases of diabetes were confirmed through adjudication, and Cox regression models were fit to estimate the risk of incident diabetes. Results: We identified 21,775 DMARD treatment regimens, the mean (SD) age at the index visit was 58 (13) years, disease duration 10 (10) years, and 30% used oral glucocorticoids at the time. Eighty-four incident cases of diabetes were confirmed within the treatment exposure periods. The hazard ratio (HR, 95% confidence interval) for diabetes was significantly reduced in patients receiving TNF inhibitors, HR 0.35 (0.13, 0.91), compared to patients treated with non-biologic DMARDs other than hydroxychloroquine and methotrexate. Hydroxychloroquine, methotrexate and use of other biologic DMARDs had a numerically reduced risk compared to the same group. Patients prescribed ≥7.5 mg of glucocorticoids had a HR of 2.33 (1.68, 3.22) of incident diabetes compared with patients not prescribed oral glucocorticoids. RA patients with a BMI >30 had a HR of 6.27 (2.97, 13.25) compared to patients with BMI ≤25. Conclusion: DMARDs, glucocorticoids and obesity influenced the risk of incident diabetes in a large cohort of RA patients. Monitoring for the occurrence of diabetes should be part of routine RA management with a focus on specific subgroups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: The implementation of treat-to-target principles in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) has not been fully investigated in patients with inadequate response to tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitor treatment. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the prevalence of an inadequate response to initial TNF inhibitor treatment at 6 and 12 months among patients with RA in a real-world patient registry, as well as the delay in therapy adjustment and its impact on disease activity and patient-reported outcome (PRO) measures. METHODS: This analysis is based on data of patients with moderate or severe disease activity (Clinical Disease Activity Index [CDAI] score >10) who were included in the Consortium of Rheumatology Researchers of North America (Corrona) RA registry, a prospective, observational database. The patients had never received treatment with a biologic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) and had initiated treatment with a TNF inhibitor (adalimumab, certolizumab pegol, etanercept, golimumab, or infliximab) between October 2001 and December 2014. We evaluated treatment response (CDAI score ≤10), select PRO measures, and treatment changes at 6 months. Patients who had an inadequate response to TNF inhibitor therapy at 6 months and continued to use their initial TNF inhibitor were evaluated again at 12 months. RESULTS: This retrospective analysis included 2282 patients. At 6 months, 1732 (75.9%) of the patients continued to use their initial TNF inhibitor; of these, 803 (46.4%) patients had an inadequate response to treatment. Of the 803 patients who had an inadequate response at 6 months, 488 (60.8%) continued their initial treatment at 12 months. Of these 488 patients, 315 (64.5%) had an inadequate response at 12 months, and 173 (35.5%) had a response. Numerically greater improvements in all PRO measures were observed for patients who responded to therapy compared with patients with an inadequate response. CONCLUSIONS: In this real-world analysis of data from the Corrona RA registry, a considerable proportion of patients with RA had an inadequate response to the initial TNF inhibitor therapy at 6 and 12 months. Many patients continued to have moderate or high disease activity, without accelerating treatment (eg, addition or increase in the dose of concurrent conventional synthetic DMARDs or a TNF inhibitor), contrary to treat-to-target principles, thus remaining at risk for accumulating joint damage and disability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The primary objective is to prospectively study the comparative safety and effectiveness of older and newer classes of nonbiologic DMARDs (Disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs), biologic DMARDs and targeted synthetic therapies approved for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in a real-world patient population in Japan. Methods: Prospective, multicenter, noninterventional, observational study across geographic distribution of both private and public institutions for patients with RA who are newly prescribed one of the following medications: (1) methotrexate; (2) anti-TNF biologic DMARDs; (3) non-TNF biologic DMARDs; and (4) approved JAK inhibitors at the time of enrollment into the registry. Target enrollment is currently 2000 subjects. Baseline and follow-up data on patient demographics, medical history, disease activity, laboratory results, comorbidities, hospitalizations, and targeted safety events are obtained via Physician and Patient Questionnaires. Results: Fifty sites are anticipated to participate with 40 sites ethics committee (EC) approved at the time of submission consisting of 23% clinics, 21% private academic hospitals, 29% private mid-sized to large hospitals, 15% national academic hospitals, and 12% national hospitals. Conclusion: The Corrona Japan RA Registry will provide real-world evidence from both private and public institutions on the comparative effectiveness and safety of recently approved RA therapies in Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective In many rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients, disease is controlled with anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) biologic therapies. However, in a significant number of patients, the disease fails to respond to anti-TNF therapy. We undertook the present study to examine the hypothesis that rare and low-frequency genetic variants might influence response to anti-TNF treatment. Methods We sequenced the coding region of 750 genes in 1,094 RA patients of European ancestry who were treated with anti-TNF. After quality control, 690 genes were included in the analysis. We applied single-variant association and gene-based association tests to identify variants associated with anti-TNF treatment response. In addition, given the key mechanistic role of TNF, we performed gene set analyses of 27 TNF pathway genes. Results We identified 14,420 functional variants, of which 6,934 were predicted as nonsynonymous 2,136 of which were further predicted to be 'damaging.' Despite the fact that the study was well powered, no single variant or gene showed study-wide significant association with change in the outcome measures disease activity or European League Against Rheumatism response. Intriguingly, we observed 3 genes, of 27 with nominal signals of association ( P < 0.05), that were involved in the TNF signaling pathway. However, when we performed a rigorous gene set enrichment analysis based on association P value ranking, we observed no evidence of enrichment of association at genes involved in the TNF pathway ( Penrichment = 0.15, based on phenotype permutations). Conclusion Our findings suggest that rare and low-frequency protein-coding variants in TNF signaling pathway genes or other genes do not contribute substantially to anti-TNF treatment response in patients with RA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We implemented a novel method for providing contextual adverse event rates for a randomised controlled trial (RCT) programme through coordinated analyses of five RA registries, focusing here on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality.Methods: Each participating registry (Consortium of Rheumatology Researchers of North America (CORRONA) (USA), Swedish Rheumatology Quality of Care Register (SRR) (Sweden), Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR) (UK), CORRONA International (East Europe, Latin America, India) and Institute of Rheumatology, Rheumatoid Arthritis (IORRA) (Japan)) defined a main cohort from January 2000 onwards. To address comparability and potential bias, we harmonised event definitions and defined several subcohorts for sensitivity analyses based on disease activity, treatment, calendar time, duration of follow-up and RCT exclusions. Rates were standardised for age, sex and, in one sensitivity analysis, also HAQ.Results: The combined registry cohorts included 57 251 patients with RA (234 089 person-years)-24.5% men, mean (SD) baseline age 58.2 (13.8) and RA duration 8.2 (11.7) years. Standardised registry mortality rates (per 100 person-years) varied from 0.42 (CORRONA) to 0.80 (NOAR), with 0.60 for RCT patients. Myocardial infarction and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) rates ranged from 0.09 and 0.31 (IORRA) to 0.39 and 0.77 (SRR), with RCT rates intermediate (0.18 and 0.42), respectively. Additional subcohort analyses showed small and mostly consistent changes across registries, retaining reasonable consistency in rates across the Western registries. Additional standardisation for HAQ returned higher mortality and MACE registry rates.Conclusions: This coordinated approach to contextualising RA RCT safety data demonstrated reasonable differences and consistency in rates for mortality and CVD across registries, and comparable RCT rates, and may serve as a model method to supplement clinical trial analyses for drug development programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The overall incidence of cancer in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is modestly elevated. The extent to which cancer rates in RA vary across clinical cohorts and patient subsets, as defined by disease activity or treatment is less known but critical for understanding the safety of existing and new antirheumatic therapies. We investigated comparability of, and means to harmonise, malignancy rates in five RA registries from four continents.Methods: Participating RA registries were Consortium of Rheumatology Researchers of North America (CORRONA) (USA), Swedish Rheumatology Quality of Care Register (SRR) (Sweden), Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR) (UK), CORRONA International (several countries) and Institute of Rheumatology, Rheumatoid Arthritis (IORRA) (Japan). Within each registry, we analysed a main cohort of all patients with RA from January 2000 to last available data, and sensitivity analyses of sub-cohorts defined by disease activity, treatment change, prior comorbidities and restricted by calendar time or follow-up, respectively. Malignancy rates with 95% CIs were estimated, and standardised for age and sex, based on the distributions from a typical RA clinical trial programme population (fostamatinib).Results: There was a high consistency in rates for overall malignancy excluding non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC), for malignant lymphomas, but not for all skin cancers, across registries, in particular following age/sex standardisation. Standardised rates of overall malignancy excluding NMSC varied from 0.56 to 0.87 per 100 person-years. Within each registry, rates were generally consistent across sensitivity analyses, which differed little from the main analysis.Conclusion: In real-world RA populations, rates of both overall malignancy and of lymphomas are consistent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents comparing the Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) with simultaneous measures of the Routine Assessment of Patient Index Data 3. Topics include validated CDAI scores provide a fundamentally different evaluation of disease status compared with the RAPID3; and patients can represent the entire rheumatoid arthritis (RA) population of practices.

Objective: Comparisons of data from different registries can be helpful in understanding variations in many aspects of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The study aim was to assess and improve the comparability of demographic, clinical, and comorbidity data from 5 international RA registries.Methods: Using predefined definitions, 2 subsets of patients (main cohort and subcohort) from 5 international observational registries (Consortium of Rheumatology Researchers of North America Registry [CORRONA], the Swedish Rheumatology Quality of Care Register [SRR], the Norfolk Arthritis Register [NOAR], the Institute of Rheumatology Rheumatoid Arthritis cohort [IORRA], and CORRONA International) were evaluated and compared. Patients ages >18 years with RA, and present in or recruited to the registry from January 1, 2000, were included in the main cohort. Patients from the main cohort with positive rheumatoid factor and/or erosive RA who had received ≥1 synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD), and switched to or added another DMARD, were included in the subcohort at time of treatment switch.Results: Age and sex distributions were fairly similar across the registries. The percentage of patients with a high Disease Activity Score in 28 joints score varied between main cohorts (17.5% IORRA, 18.9% CORRONA, 24.7% NOAR, 27.7% CORRONA International, and 36.8% SRR), with IORRA, CORRONA, and CORRONA International including more prevalent cases of RA; the differences were smaller for the subcohort. Prevalence of comorbidities varied across registries (e.g., coronary artery disease ranged from 1.5% in IORRA to 7.9% in SRR), partly due to the way comorbidity data were captured and general cultural differences; the pattern was similar for the subcohorts.Conclusion: Despite different inclusion criteria for the individual RA registries, it is possible to improve the comparability and interpretability of differences across RA registries by applying well-defined cohort definitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To identify the rheumatoid arthritis (RA) characteristics associated with increased herpes zoster (HZ) risk in the Corrona registry RA patients, and to evaluate the risk in initiators of tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi) or non-TNFi biologic agents or (among those who were currently on or had been previously treated with methotrexate [MTX]) conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (csDMARDs) other than MTX.Methods: Cox regression modeling estimated the association between first HZ incidence and selected RA characteristics, including disease activity. Medication-related risk for HZ in RA patients taking current or past MTX (to exclude milder RA disease) were categorized by treatment initiation (TNFi versus non-TNFi versus csDMARD). Hazard ratios (HRs) estimated HZ risk of each treatment initiation category after stratification on trimmed propensity score (PS) quintiles to control for potential confounders.Results: A total of 28,852 patients contributed 95,287 person-years. Seven hundred twenty-nine observed HZ cases yielded a 7.7 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 7.1-8.2) per 1,000 patient-years crude incidence rate, lower than found in prior RA cohorts. However, consistent with prior studies, increasing age (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.09-1.19 per 5 years) and prednisone therapy ≥7.5 mg/day (HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.23-2.67) were associated with a higher HZ risk. Referent to TNFi exposure, PS-stratified analysis showed an HR for csDMARDs of 1.36 (95% CI 0.82-2.25) and for non-TNFi of 0.83 (95% CI 0.51-1.38).Conclusion: In the Corrona registry, the HZ risk in RA patients taking prior or current MTX increased with older age and higher prednisone dose. The HZ risk among these patients with RA was comparable after initiation of TNFi versus non-TNFi versus csDMARDs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose Observational studies can provide context for adverse events observed in clinical trials, especially for infrequent events or long-term risks. We developed methods to improve safety contextualization for a rheumatoid arthritis drug development program through coordinated analyses of multiple registries. Methods We identified and characterized differences and similarities across five registries (Swedish Rheumatology Quality of Care Register, Consortium of Rheumatology Researchers of North America [CORRONA], Norfolk Arthritis Register, Institute of Rheumatology Rheumatoid Arthritis, and the new CORRONA International), harmonized outcome definitions, and investigated whether restricted subcohorts improved comparability with trial populations. To address confounding, we identified risk predictors for outcomes of interest (mortality, cardiovascular disease, infection, and malignancy). We used patient-level analyses at each registry and central analysis of standardized group-level data. Results Despite data differences, the coordinated approach enabled consistent variable definitions for key baseline characteristics and outcomes. Selection of restricted subcohorts (e.g., using active joint count criteria) improved baseline comparability with trial patients for some rheumatoid arthritis disease activity measures, but less for other characteristics (e.g., age and comorbidity); however, such selection decreased sample size considerably. For most outcomes, age was the most important risk predictor, emphasizing the importance of age/sex standardization to address confounding. The prospective approach enabled use of recent relevant data; the distributed analysis safeguarded confidentiality of registry data. Conclusions Compared with reliance on published data alone, a forward-looking coordinated approach across multiple observational data sources can improve comparability and consistency and better support sensitivity analyses and data interpretation, in contextualizing safety data from clinical trials. This approach may have utility to support safety assessments across diverse diseases and drug development programs and satisfy future regulatory requirements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Comparative effectiveness research has recently attracted considerable attention. The Comparative Effectiveness Registry to study Therapies for Arthritis and Inflammatory Conditions (CERTAIN) is an ongoing prospective cohort study of adult patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA). Methods/Design: CERTAIN uses the existing Consortium of Rheumatology Researchers of North America (CORRONA) network of participating private and academic sites in order to recruit patients fulfilling the 1987 ACR criteria that have at least moderate disease activity. Patients starting or switching biologic agents either anti-TNF therapy or a non anti-TNF biologic are eligible for enrollment, depending on the treatment selected by their physician. Enrollment is expected to be completed by March of 2014, and 2711 patients will participate in the study. As of October 7th 2013, 2234 patients have been enrolled. Patient visits and laboratory blood work are mandated every three months for one year. Safety data is collected through one year and beyond. The primary comparative effectiveness endpoint is attainment of low RA disease activity at one year among patients who have been exposed to at least one prior TNF-α inhibitor agent prior to enrollment. Multiple secondary effectiveness and safety endpoints will be addressed by investigating the entire population enrolled (naïve and biologic experienced). Discussion: The unique design features of CERTAIN will inform comparative effectiveness and safety questions for choosing biologic agents for the management of RA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major challenge in human genetics is to devise a systematic strategy to integrate disease-associated variants with diverse genomic and biological data sets to provide insight into disease pathogenesis and guide drug discovery for complex traits such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Here we performed a genome-wide association study meta-analysis in a total of >100,000 subjects of European and Asian ancestries (29,880 RA cases and 73,758 controls), by evaluating ∼10 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms. We discovered 42 novel RA risk loci at a genome-wide level of significance, bringing the total to 101 (refs 2, 3, 4). We devised an in silico pipeline using established bioinformatics methods based on functional annotation, cis-acting expression quantitative trait loci and pathway analyses-as well as novel methods based on genetic overlap with human primary immunodeficiency, haematological cancer somatic mutations and knockout mouse phenotypes-to identify 98 biological candidate genes at these 101 risk loci. We demonstrate that these genes are the targets of approved therapies for RA, and further suggest that drugs approved for other indications may be repurposed for the treatment of RA. Together, this comprehensive genetic study sheds light on fundamental genes, pathways and cell types that contribute to RA pathogenesis, and provides empirical evidence that the genetics of RA can provide important information for drug discovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrating genetic data from families with highly penetrant forms of disease together with genetic data from outbred populations represents a promising strategy to uncover the complete frequency spectrum of risk alleles for complex traits such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Here, we demonstrate that rare, low-frequency and common alleles at one gene locus, phospholipase B1 (PLB1), might contribute to risk of RA in a 4-generation consanguineous pedigree (Middle Eastern ancestry) and also in unrelated individuals from the general population (European ancestry). Through identity-by-descent (IBD) mapping and whole-exome sequencing, we identified a non-synonymous c.2263G>C (p.G755R) mutation at the PLB1 gene on 2q23, which significantly co-segregated with RA in family members with a dominant mode of inheritance (P = 0.009). We further evaluated PLB1 variants and risk of RA using a GWAS meta-analysis of 8,875 RA cases and 29,367 controls of European ancestry. We identified significant contributions of two independent non-coding variants near PLB1 with risk of RA (rs116018341 [MAF = 0.042] and rs116541814 [MAF = 0.021], combined P = 3.2×10−6). Finally, we performed deep exon sequencing of PLB1 in 1,088 RA cases and 1,088 controls (European ancestry), and identified suggestive dispersion of rare protein-coding variant frequencies between cases and controls (P = 0.049 for C-alpha test and P = 0.055 for SKAT). Together, these data suggest that PLB1 is a candidate risk gene for RA. Future studies to characterize the full spectrum of genetic risk in the PLB1 genetic locus are warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Objective: To determine the prevalence and persistence of new-onset clinical remission in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. Methods: The Consortium of Rheumatology Researchers of North America (CORRONA) cohort was used to examine the prevalence of remission and associated comorbidities and RA therapies according to the 2011 American College of Rheumatology (ACR)/European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) remission criteria. Factors influencing the likelihood of remaining in remission were identified by logistic regression with generalized estimating equations. Analysis of variance and Tukey's test were used to determine differences in disability according to whether RA patients had been in remission or only low disease activity (LDA). Results: A total of 2105 individuals met ACR/EULAR remission criteria at the most recent visit within CORRONA, yielding an 8% point prevalence of remission. Patients with certain comorbidities (e.g., heart failure) were significantly less likely to achieve or remain in remission compared to those without these conditions (p < 0.001 for each). Among prednisone users, the prevalence of remission was 1–6% (depending on dose) higher compared to those not on prednisone (10%). More than 50% of patients who had consistently been in remission for ≥1 year were able to remain in remission over the next year. Patients consistently in remission had less disability than patients who achieved LDA or who fluctuated between remission and LDA. Conclusion: Patients consistently in remission for at least 1 year had a high likelihood to remain in remission. These individuals might be considered the most likely candidates for de-escalation or withdrawal of RA treatments. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: There is currently great interest in the incorporation of genetic susceptibility loci into screening models to identify individuals at high risk of disease. Here, we present the first risk prediction model including all 46 known genetic loci associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods: A weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) was created using 45 RA non-human leucocyte antigen (HLA) susceptibility loci, imputed amino acids at HLA-DRB1 (11, 71 and 74), HLA-DPB1 (position 9) HLA-B (position 9) and gender. The wGRS was tested in 11 366 RA cases and 15 489 healthy controls. The risk of developing RA was estimated using logistic regression by dividing the wGRS into quintiles. The ability of the wGRS to discriminate between cases and controls was assessed by receiver operator characteristic analysis and discrimination improvement tests. Results: Individuals in the highest risk group showed significantly increased odds of developing anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide-positive RA compared to the lowest risk group (OR 27.13, 95% CI 23.70 to 31.05). The wGRS was validated in an independent cohort that showed similar results (area under the curve 0.78, OR 18.00, 95% CI 13.67 to 23.71). Comparison of the full wGRS with a wGRS in which HLA amino acids were replaced by a HLA tag single-nucleotide polymorphism showed a significant loss of sensitivity and specificity. Conclusions: Our study suggests that in RA, even when using all known genetic susceptibility variants, prediction performance remains modest; while this is insufficiently accurate for general population screening, it may prove of more use in targeted studies. Our study has also highlighted the importance of including HLA variation in risk prediction models.