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Country risk is often misconceived, leading to misunderstanding and, consequently, misapplication. This paper aims to provide an alternative way to assess country risk, based on quantitative tools where the link between country crises, firms' characteristics and country risk ratings are presented. This paper reviews the literature on country risk concepts and develops a theory for the impact of country risk on the real economy, in particular how the outcome, provoked by a country crisis, effects firms' assets. A statistical model based on the probability of a crisis adjusted to firm idiosyncratic exposure to country risk is built with respect to the type of exposed asset. The proposed assumptions that country risk alone does not exist, and that country risk must be combined with the primary source of risk to be measured, are rooted in natural science concepts about vulnerability and hazard and are the essence of this paper. The model is forward looking based on the probabilities of the occurrence of countries' crises, providing an economic foundation for the additional cost of capital that country risk represents. This methodology could provide additional help to investors and banks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk analysis offers a useful framework for evaluating and managing environmental health risks across different settings. In this Perspective, we question whether the principles and practice of risk analysis could be beneficial in the context of land-based pollution in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to better support risk-based decision making. Specifically, potential health and economic impacts from land-based pollution in LMICs has become an increasing issue of concern due to widespread environmental contamination from active and legacy operations, particularly informal activities that are becoming increasingly dispersed throughout communities, such as used lead acid battery recycling, artisanal and small-scale gold mining, and small-scale tanneries. However, the overall magnitude and scale of the public health problem arising from these sources remains highly uncertain and poorly characterized and cannot be compared to land-based pollution in high-income countries due to unique factors. This lack of knowledge has negatively affected the political priority and level of funding for risk mitigation actions targeting land-based pollution in these countries. Our primary objective is to raise further awareness of this emerging issue among risk analysts and decisionmakers and to advocate for more robust and focused research. Here, we highlight the types of industries and activities contributing to land-based pollution in LMICs and describe key findings and knowledge and data gaps that have hindered a fuller understanding of this issue.We also discuss how several risk assessment and risk management approaches might be useful in this resource-constrained context. We conclude that a combination of risk analysis approaches may be worthwhile, but more work is needed to determine which methods or tools will be most informative, technically feasible, and cost-effective for identifying, prioritizing, and mitigating land-based pollution in LMICs. Affected researchers, funding agencies, and local or national governments will need to work together to develop improved study designs and risk mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Country risk reflects a country's overall risk status, and it has an extremely important impact on global investment and trade between countries. This study is conducted to examine country risk analysis and assessment models. The historical stages of country risk assessment are characterized, and the development and application of country risk analysis and assessment techniques are reviewed. Country risk assessment modelling techniques developed in two major frameworks: Multi-criteria decision-making framework based on macroeconomic fundamentals and asset pricing framework based on market information. Based on our analysis, we identify current trends and research gaps, as well as relevant future research directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of the study is to develop a flexible model for assessing the country risk of Germany to determine the level of economic security of the state and choose the vector of economic policy, including during periods of global turbulence. The authors have developed a method for determining the level of economic security of the state based on the calculation of the integral indicator of country risk, which has a number of advantages and contributes to improving the quality of economic security management: open statistical data on the socio-economic development of countries are used; expert surveys are not required; publicly available methods of statistical analysis (correlation and covariance analysis) and the method of determining the weight of the impact of economic indicators on GDP dynamics without taking into account the opinion of experts can be used for international comparisons. The results of calculating the integral indicator of German country risk showed that for the period 1992-2018, the average country level of risk was 2.75% of economic growth, during this period there were only 5 periods of "weakness" of the German economy, which indicates a high level of economic security of the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Applying the agency theory perspective, we examined the relationship between board structure and the average political risk of firms' international manufacturing operations in a sample of 95 manufacturing firms from the Fortune 500. Our results indicate an association between board composition, CEO duality, and the level of international political risk present in a corporation's portfolio of foreign direct investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coal is an irreplaceable part of the world energy structure and the condition will not be changed in the near future. Under the Belt and Road initiative, more and more Chinese energy enterprises are planning to invest in coal-fired power plant (CFPP) abroad. However, there are multiple potential risks in investing in CFPP overseas. So, assessing the risk level can help the investors avoid too risky countries and at the same time facilitate the government to take measures to reduce the potential risks to attract more investors. To reasonably assess overseas investment risk of CFPP in countries along the Belt and Road initiative, this paper establishes an evaluation criteria system from eight dimensions which consists of a total of 39 criteria. Then, these criteria weights are determined through a combined analytic network process-Entropy method. Furthermore, considering the psychological characteristics of decision-makers, a TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese for Interactive Multi-criteria Decision Making) approach is used to rank the overall risk level of CFPP investment for 23 nations. The findings indicate that the criterion of economic foundation owns the largest weight. Moreover, among these evaluated nations, Singapore have the lowest risk for China's CFPP investment, followed by New Zealand and Thailand. • Coal-fired power plant investment risk assessment along the "Belt & Road Initiative" is evaluated. • An evaluation criteria system including 39 criteria from eight dimensions is established. • Criteria weights are determined through a combined ANP-Entropy method. • TODIM approach is used to rank the overall risk level for 23 nations. • Singapore New Zealand and Thailand are the ideal investment choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity.Methods: By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction) among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of disease-specific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome.Findings: In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 10-12) deaths and 255 million (234-274) DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1-5] deaths and 70 million [34-118] DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2-4] deaths and 82 million [59-109] DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1-4] deaths and 65 million [41-92] DALYs) were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates.Interpretation: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nominal classification (NC) is a subfield of multi-criteria decision making where an object (in a broad sense) characterized by some attributes (with their valuation belonging to an ordered set, numeric in general) must be assigned to one of pre-defined classes or categories; these classes are characterized by some numerical valued features. This is also known as supervised classification as opposed to unsupervised classification in machine learning literature. In many applications such as that of risk analysis, characterization of classes by features may not be precisely defined; they will be rather fuzzily expressed using linguistic appreciation such as high is better, low is more appreciated, medium range is better, etc. leading to what is referred to as fuzzy nominal classification (FNC). On other hand bipolar reasoning is pervasive in classification in the sense that given a couple (feature, class), there will be some values of the feature that lead to automatically assigning (respect. automatically excluding to assign) the considered object into that class leading to what we name bipolar fuzzy nominal classification or BFNC for short; the main purpose of this paper is to develop this BFNC framework with risk analysis as an illustrative application domain. The stepping stones of this framework are two indexes for each couple (class, object) known as classifiability index (that measures the extent to which the considered object can be included into that class) and the rejectability index measuring the extent to which one should avoid including this object into that class. By using two indexes for classification, many classes can be qualified for inclusion of a given object rendering this framework flexible. Analyzing risks for large-scale complex systems requires identifying, assessing, and prioritizing different risk scenarios for their appropriate treatment such as resources allocation for risk mitigation, risk prevention, risk sharing, etc. To this end and given scarcity of resources in general, one must consider first prioritizing, filtering, or scoring risks that return to assigning them to pre-defined classes or categories; that is nominally classifying them. The developed BFNC framework applied to a real world application in the domain of countries' risk classification shows its practical potentialities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the impact of the Iran-Iraq War on the neighboring countries and MNCs that conduct business in the region. It identifies the political pressures exerted on the Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates) and discusses the changes that these countries undertook to guard against the possible spillover of military and revolutionary operations. Sales, investments, and contracts in these countries were statistically tested for significant effects on MNCs. This article also explains the historical roots of the Iran-Iraq War and the underlying political risks faced by governments in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research and analysis of political risk assessment in overseas areas is encumbered with serious definitional and methodological problems. These problems make any interpretive findings at best highly crude (and of limited applicability) and at worst irrelevant and subject to misinterpretation. In light of the nature of these problems, not much appears to be gained by introducing more sophisticated analytical techniques. A realistic approach to political risk analysis must take into account three sets of factors: the general sociopolitical international environment; the foreign and domestic policies of the home country of the multinational parent and those of the host country; and the relative bargaining strength of a particular multinational corporation based on its international investment strategy, technological lead, and investment exposure in a host country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of a body of knowledge concerned with the definition and assessment of political risk has been uncoordinated, due to the absence of a consensus regarding the conceptual framework on which to develop. In this paper, previous work is drawn together as a first step in establishing such a framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on international banking risk, especially in regards to the debt volumes of developing countries. Possible consequences of loan write-offs and resultant domestic financial market crises are mentioned. An analytical framework is presented to measure international finance risk factors. Existing theory on country risk is addressed and criticized concerning its conceptual holes. A new econometric model is provided focusing on market and bankruptcy risk. Conclusions are offered relating Chebyshev's inequality theory to connect bankruptcy risk with return distributions.

Leaders choose to mislead their domestic peers when the political risk and cost associated with a particular foreign policy decision is too great and when the structure of the political system in question is too leader-centric to afford these costs being incurred by the leader. This article argues that risk, uncertainty and imperfect information are not necessarily external, unwanted, or unforeseen factors in foreign policy decisions. In certain cases, they too are instrumentalized and adopted consciously into decision-making systems in order to diffuse the political costs of high-risk choices with expected low utility by insulating the leader from audience costs. This dynamic can be best observed in leader-centric and strong personality cult systems where the leader’s consent or at least tacit approval is required for all policies to be realized. This article uses two important case studies that effectively illustrate the use of deliberate uncertainty in decision-making in leader-centric systems: post-2014 Russia (War in Donbass and the annexation of Crimea), and Turkey (ending of the Kurdish peace process and the change in policy towards Syria). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previously reported effects of institutional quality and political risks on foreign direct investment (FDI) are mixed and, therefore, difficult to interpret. We present empirical evidence suggesting a relatively clear, statistically robust, and intuitive characterization. Institutional factors that affect the likelihood of an abrupt and total loss of foreigners’ capital (i.e., return of capital) dominate factors that affect rates of return conditional on a strictly positive terminal investment value (i.e., return on capital). The evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that expropriation risk is most important among the available measures of different dimensions of institutional quality. A one-standard-deviation reduction in expropriation risk is associated with a 72% increase in FDI, which is substantially larger than the effects of any other dimensions of institutional quality as simultaneously estimated in our empirical models of expected FDI inflows. We show that this evidence is consistent with the predictions of a standard theory of FDI under imperfect contract enforcement and multiple dimensions of political risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, any sign of unexpected change in monetary policy by a central bank in a major financial centre triggers massive volatility in capital flows. Since 2013, this has been mostly in and out of emerging markets. For portfolio investors, global conditions have become a key – and at times overriding – factor in investment decisions. This paper will show how, over time, country risk analysis has slowly integrated global risk factors external to the country. It will argue that despite the evident major impact of capital flows and policy spill-overs on national economies and shrinking room for national control over domestic economic policy due to global integration, external factors are still not being given the weight that they deserve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While political scientists find that democracy reduces political risk, little scholarship analyzes how authoritarian regimes attract foreign direct investment (FDI). This article argues that while authoritarian countries are generally risky, this risk can be minimized when authoritarian regimes are constrained from both “above” and “below.” Signing international investment treaties are critical for authoritarian countries to signal a commitment to FDI-friendly policies. However, only authoritarian signatories that allow some degree of public deliberation in their policymaking are then constrained from deviating from the policies of the international investment treaties. Panel statistical regressions and a case analysis support the hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whether dealing with debt issues in the Eurozone, investment prospects in emerging markets, or potential disruptions in patterns of global trade, the identification, assessment, and measurement of political risk ( PR) are recurring issues for businesses and governments today. In the past few years, abrupt social and political change has become the rule in international relations. A prominent instance of this is the 'Arab Spring,' the massive and unexpected wave of social and political turmoil that, starting in the winter of 2010-2011, swept across the Middle East and North Africa ( MENA) region. The Arab Spring has significantly affected the business climate of the countries involved. In doing so, it has also exposed the shortcomings of the extant approaches to PR assessment. This article discusses the performance of five different approaches to PR assessment ( OECD, ONDD, EIU, PRS, SACE) vis-à-vis the Arab Spring, providing some specific suggestions on how to improve PR assessment and analysis. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]