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Unlabelled: Fracture probability assessed without bone mineral density (BMD) could potentially be sufficient for clinical decision making in many individuals categorized as low or high fracture risk. For individuals falling in a moderate risk range, there is incremental value in using BMD in the probability calculation as this appropriately reclassifies risk in over one third of the individuals., Introduction: A new fracture risk assessment tool from the World Health Organization (FRAX) estimates 10-year major osteoporotic and hip fracture probabilities from multiple clinical risk factors with or without hip BMD. The objective of this study is to determine whether fracture probability derived without BMD can be used to identify individuals who would be designated for treatment., Methods: A historical cohort of 36,730 women and 2,873 men aged 50 years and older drawn from the Manitoba Bone Density Program database, which contains clinical BMD results for the Province of Manitoba, Canada, was included in the study., Results: When 10-year probability for major osteoporotic fracture estimated without knowledge of BMD was high (≥ 20%), the vast majority (92.8%) qualified for intervention under the National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF) guidelines, whereas among those at low risk (<10%), the vast majority (80.5%) did not satisfy any NOF intervention criteria. The benefit of including BMD in the risk assessment was greatest among those initially at moderate risk (10-19%) when fracture probability was derived without BMD, but this represented only 29.4% of the cohort (9.3% of those aged < 65 years and 48.7% of those ≥ 65 years)., Conclusions: Fracture probability derived without BMD is able to risk stratify women in terms of future fracture risk and could potentially be sufficient for clinical decision making in many of those designated at low or high fracture risk.

Osteoporosis Canada's 2010 Clinical Practice Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Management of Osteoporosis in Canada focus on the clinical impact of fragility fractures, and on the assessment and management of women and men at high risk for fragility fracture. These guidelines now integrate a 10-year absolute fracture risk prediction into an overall management approach by using validated risk assessment tools. There currently is a large gap between optimal practices and those that are now being provided to Canadians with osteoporosis. These guidelines are part of a concerted effort to close this gap. Key changes from the 2002 guidelines of interest and relevance to radiologists are highlighted in this report., (Copyright © 2011 Canadian Association of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Several national organizations recommend that fracture risk assessment and osteoporotic treatment be based on estimated absolute 10-year fracture risk rather than bone mineral density (BMD) alone., Objective: To assess the changes in physician prescribing behavior after introduction of absolute 10-year fracture risk reporting., Design: Before-and-after study., Setting: Manitoba, Canada, which has an integrated BMD program in which tests are linkable to a population-based administrative health database repository., Patients: Women 50 years or older who were not receiving osteoporosis medication (2042 before and 3889 after intervention)., Intervention: Introduction of a system reporting absolute 10-year fracture risk along with dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry results., Measurements: The proportion of untreated women who were prescribed osteoporosis medications in the year after baseline BMD measurement., Results: Absolute fracture risk reporting reclassified more women (32.7%) into lower-risk categories than into higher-risk categories (10%). This effect was more prominent in women younger than 65 years. Fewer women per physician were prescribed osteoporosis drugs after introduction of absolute fracture risk reporting. The absolute fracture risk reporting system was associated with an overall reduction in osteoporosis medications dispensed (adjusted absolute reduction, 9.0 percentage points [95% CI, 3.9 to 14.2 percentage points]; relative reduction, 21.3% [CI, 9.2% to 33.5%]; P < 0.001). The reduction was attributed to fewer drugs dispensed to women at low and moderate risk for fracture. No differences in fracture rates were observed., Limitations: This was a nonrandomized study. The risk assessment system studied differs slightly from other 10-year fracture risk assessment models., Conclusion: Change from a T-score-based fracture risk reporting system to a system based on absolute 10-year fracture risk was associated with appropriate, guideline-based changes in prescription of osteoporosis medications., Primary Funding Source: None.

Summary: Awareness of the prevalence of osteoporosis and fractures across jurisdictions can guide the development of local preventive programs and healthcare policies. We observed geographical variations in total hip bone mineral density and in the prevalence of major osteoporotic fractures across Canadian provinces, which persisted after adjusting for important covariates. Purpose: We aimed to describe sex-specific total hip bone mineral density (aBMD) and prevalent major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) variation between Canadian provinces. Methods: We used baseline data from 21,227 Canadians (10,716 women, 10,511 men) aged 50–85 years in the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA; baseline: 2012–2015). Linear and logistic regression models were used to examine associations between province of residence and total hip aBMD and self-reported MOF, stratified by sex. CLSA sampling weights were used to generate the prevalence and regression estimates. Results: The mean (SD) age of participants was 63.9 (9.1) years. The mean body mass index (kg/m2) was lowest in British Columbia (27.4 [5.0]) and highest in Newfoundland and Labrador (28.8 [5.3]). Women and men from British Columbia had the lowest mean total hip aBMD and the lowest prevalence of MOF. Alberta had the highest proportion of participants reporting recent falls (12.0%), and Manitoba (8.4%) the fewest (p-value=0.002). Linear regression analyses demonstrated significant differences in total hip aBMD: women and men from British Columbia and Alberta, and women from Manitoba and Nova Scotia had lower adjusted total hip aBMD than Ontario (p-values<0.02). Adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals, CI) for prevalent MOF were significantly lower in women from British Columbia (0.47 [95% CI: 0.32; 0.69]) and Quebec (0.68 [95% CI: 0.48; 0.97]) and in men from British Columbia (0.40 [95% CI:0.22; 0.71]) compared to Ontario (p-values<0.03). Results were similar when adjusting for physical performance measures and when restricting the analyses to participants who reported White race/ethnicity. Conclusion: Geographical variations in total hip aBMD and in the prevalence of MOF between provinces persisted after adjusting for important covariates which suggests an association with unmeasured individual and environmental factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Prior non-vertebral fractures, except of the ankle, are associated with increased likelihood of vertebral fracture. As knowledge of vertebral fracture presence may alter care, vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) is indicated in patients with prior fracture. Introduction: Vertebral fractures are often unappreciated. It was recently advocated that all Fracture Liaison Service (FLS) patients have densitometric VFA performed. We evaluated the likelihood of vertebral fracture identification with VFA in patients with prior fracture using the Manitoba Bone Density database. Methods : VFA was performed in patients with T-scores below − 1.5 and age 70 + (or younger with height loss or glucocorticoid use) obtaining bone densitometry in Manitoba from 2010 to 2018. Those with prior clinical vertebral fracture, pathologic fracture, or uninterpretable VFA were excluded. Vertebral fractures were identified using the modified ABQ method. Health records were assessed for non-vertebral fracture (excluding head, neck, hand, foot) diagnosis codes unassociated with trauma prior to DXA. Multivariable odds ratios (ORs) for vertebral fracture were estimated without and with adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, ethnicity, area of residence, income level, comorbidity score, diabetes mellitus, falls in the last year, glucocorticoid use, and lowest BMD T-score. Results: The study cohort consisted of 12,756 patients (94.4% women) with mean (SD) age 75.9 (6.8) years. Vertebral fractures were identified in 1925 (15.1%) overall. Vertebral fractures were significantly more likely (descending order) in those with prior pelvis, hip, humerus, other sites, and forearm, but not ankle fracture. There was modest attenuation with covariate adjustment but statistical significance was maintained. Conclusions: Prior hip, humerus, pelvis, forearm, and other fractures are associated with an increased likelihood of previously undiagnosed vertebral fracture, information useful for risk stratification and monitoring. These data support recommending VFA in FLS patients who are age 70 + with low BMD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary : Fractures are associated with increased long-term mortality in patients surviving to undergo baseline DXA. Notably, excess mortality risk does not decline with increasing time since prior hip or humerus fractures, even after accounting for comorbid medical conditions and other risk factors. Introduction: Mortality risk increases following most types of fracture. In routine clinical practice, patients with prior fractures seen for dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scan (DXA) are "survivors;" whether they remain at increased mortality risk is unknown. We tested the association between prior fracture and all-cause mortality, stratified by time since fracture, in patients undergoing baseline DXA. Methods: We conducted a DXA registry-based cohort study and linked to population-based health services data for the Province of Manitoba, Canada. We identified women and men ≥ 40 years with minimum 10 years of prior healthcare coverage undergoing baseline DXA and ascertained prior fracture codes since 1984 and mortality to 2017. Time since prior fracture was calculated between the clinical encounter for the fracture and baseline DXA (index date). Cox proportional hazards models estimated hazard ratios for all-cause mortality in those with compared to those without prior fracture adjusted for (1) age and sex, and (2) age, sex, comorbidities, and other covariates. Results: The study cohort consisted of 74,474 individuals (mean age 64.6 years, 89.7% female). During mean follow-up 9.2 years, we ascertained 14,923 (20.0%) deaths. Except for forearm fractures, all fracture sites were associated with increased mortality risk compared to those without prior fracture, even after multivariable adjustment. Excess mortality risk tended to decline slightly with time since fracture and was no longer significant > 10 years after vertebral fracture. However, excess mortality persisted > 10 years following hip or humerus fracture. Conclusions: Prior fractures are associated with increased long-term mortality in patients surviving to undergo baseline DXA. Excess mortality risk does not decline with time since prior hip or humerus fractures, after accounting for potential confounders. Fracture prevention may have important long-term benefits preserving life expectancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The G arvan Fracture Risk Calculator predicts risk of osteoporotic fractures. We evaluated its predictive performance in 16,682 women and 2839 men from Manitoba, Canada, and found significant risk stratification, with a strong gradient across scores. The tool outperformed clinical risk factors and bone mineral density for fracture risk stratification. Introduction: The optimal model for fracture risk estimation to guide treatment decision-making remains controversial. Our objective was to evaluate the predictive performance of the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (FRC) in a large clinical registry from Manitoba, Canada. Methods: Using the population-based Manitoba Bone Mineral Density (BMD) registry, we identified women and men aged 50–95 years undergoing baseline BMD assessment from September 1, 2012, onwards. Five-year Garvan FRC predictions were generated from clinical risk factors (CRFs) with and without femoral neck BMD. We identified incident non-traumatic osteoporotic fractures (OFs) and hip fractures (HFs) from population-based healthcare data sources to March 31, 2018. Fracture risk was assessed from area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Cox regression analysis and calibration ratios (5-year observed/predicted) were assessed for risk quintiles. All analyses were sex stratified. Results: We included 16,682 women (mean age 66.6 + / − SD 8.7 years) and 2839 men (mean age 68.7 + / − SD 10.2 years). During a mean observation time of 2.6 years, incident OFs were identified in 681 women and 140 men and HFs in 199 women and 22 men. AUROC showed significant fracture risk stratification with the Garvan FRC. Tool predictions without BMD were better than from age or decreasing weight, and the tool with BMD performed better than BMD alone. Garvan FRC with BMD performed better than without BMD, especially for HF prediction (AUROC 0.86 in women, 0.82 in men). There was a strong gradient of increasing risk across Garvan FRC quintiles (highest versus lowest, hazard ratios women 5.75 and men 3.43 for any OF; women 101.6 for HF). Calibration differences were noted, with both over- and underestimation in risk. Conclusions: Garvan FRC outperformed CRFs and BMD alone for fracture risk stratification, particularly for HF, but may require recalibration for accurate predictions in this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The risk of subsequent major osteoporotic and hip fracture following an initial fracture was increased in both sexes over 25 years, with modest time-dependent attenuation. This risk was highest in men, underscoring the importance of targeted treatment strategies particularly in this under-treated population. Introduction: The risk of subsequent fractures is increased following an index fracture, and declines over time. We aimed to determine whether this risk was sustained over 25 years and evolved similarly in men and women. Methods: Using population-based databases, we performed a matched cohort study in 16,876 men and 39,230 women ≥ 50 years who sustained an index fracture during 1989–2006. Rates of subsequent major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures until 2016 were compared to rates for matched controls (n = 160,983). Age- and sex-stratified cumulative incidences to 25 years were estimated in the presence of competing mortality. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for subsequent fractures were estimated for each on the first 15 years of follow-up with a final category ≥ 15 years, adjusted for comorbidities. Results: Risk for MOF and hip fractures remained elevated up to 25 years in both sexes. The cumulative incidence of fractures was higher in cases vs controls in both sexes and across all age categories except in those > 90 years. Crude rate ratios for subsequent MOF were 2.5 (95% CI 2.3–2.7) in men and 1.6 (95% CI 1.6–1.7) in women and were higher in the younger age groups. Adjusted HRs (aHRs) for subsequent MOF were higher in men than in women in the first year (men aHR 2.6, 95% CI 2.1–3.3; women aHR 1.6, 95% CI 1.4–1.7). Conclusions: The risk of subsequent fractures following an initial fracture was increased over 25 years and the magnitude of risk was initially greater in men than in women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Prevention of early menopausal bone loss may reduce the future burden of osteoporosis. In this modelling exercise, an osteoporosis prevention strategy involving 5-year infusions of zoledronic acid, beginning early in menopause, reduced long-term fracture risk and the proportion of aging women with femoral neck densitometric osteoporosis. This strategy warrants further evaluation. Introduction: Preventing early menopausal bone loss may substantially reduce the future burden of osteoporosis. We modelled the effects of infrequent zoledronic acid infusions on long-term fracture risk. Methods: Data from the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos) were used to determine the expected natural history of femoral neck areal bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture risk (using FRAX®) from ages 50–80 for women with no antiresorptive drug exposures. We modelled the effects of three infusions of zoledronic acid (at ages 50, 55, 60) on long-term fracture risk, assuming this intervention would preserve BMD until age 65 years, followed by losses mirroring early menopausal BMD loss. Results: At age 65, untreated women and zoledronic acid recipients had expected mean (SD) femoral neck T-scores of − 1.5(1.0) and − 0.8(1.0), 10-year major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) risks of 9.8%(5.0) and 8.0%(3.7) and hip fracture risks of 1.7%(2.4) and 0.8%(1.2), respectively. At age 80, untreated women and zoledronic acid recipients had expected femoral neck T-scores of − 1.9(0.9) and − 1.4(0.9), MOF risks of 17.9%(8.2) and 14.9%(6.4) and hip fracture risks of 6.3%(6.2) and 4.4%(4.5), respectively. The expected proportion of women with femoral neck T-score ≤ − 2.5 was 14.9% for untreated women and 3.8% for zoledronic acid recipients at age 65, increasing to 28.1% and 12.0%, respectively, at age 80. Numbers-needed-to-treat to prevent one case of densitometric osteoporosis were 9 at age 65 and 5 at age 80. Conclusion: Infrequent infusions of zoledronic acid, initiated early in menopause, are expected to reduce long-term fracture risk and result in a substantial reduction in the proportion of women with densitometric osteoporosis after age 65. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: We examined the underlying relationship between fracture risk factors and their imminent risk. Results suggested that having past year fracture, worse past year general health, worse past year physical functioning, and lower past year BMD T-score directly predicted higher imminent fracture risk. Past year falls indirectly predicted imminent risk through physical functioning and general health. Introduction: This study aimed to examine direct and indirect effects of several factors on imminent (1 year) fracture risk. Methods: Data from women age 65 and older from population-based Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study were used. Predictors were identified from study years 5 and 10, and imminent fracture data (1-year fracture) came from years 6 and 11 (year 5 predicts year 6, year 10 predicts year 11). A structural equation model (SEM) was used to test the theoretical construct. General health and physical functioning were measured as latent variables using items from the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) and bone mineral density (BMD) T-score was a latent variable based on observed site-specific BMD data (spine L1-L4, femoral neck, total hip). Observed variables were fractures and falls. Model fit was evaluated using root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA), Tucker Lewis index (TLI), and comparative fit index (CFI). Results: The analysis included 3298 women. Model fit tests showed that the SEM fit the data well; χ2(172) = 1122.10 <.001, RMSEA =.03, TLI =.99, CFI =.99. Results suggested that having past year fracture, worse past year general health, worse past year physical functioning, and lower past year BMD T-score directly predicted higher risk of fracture in the subsequent year (p <.001). Past year falls had a statistically significant but indirect effect on imminent fracture risk through physical functioning and general health (p <.001). Conclusions: We found several direct and indirect pathways that predicted imminent fracture risk in elderly women. Future studies should extend this work by developing risk scoring methods and defining imminent risk thresholds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Prior high-trauma fractures identified through health services data are associated with low bone mineral density (BMD) and future fracture risk to the same extent as fractures without high-trauma. Introduction: Some have questioned the usefulness of distinguishing high-trauma fractures from low-trauma fractures. The aim of this study is to compare BMD measurements and risk of subsequent low-trauma fracture in patients with prior high- or low-trauma fractures. Methods: Using a clinical BMD registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada, we identified women and men age 40 years or older with fracture records from linked population-based healthcare data. Age- and sex-adjusted BMD Z-scores and covariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident fracture were studied in relation to prior fracture status, categorized as high-trauma if associated with external injury codes and low-trauma otherwise. Results: The study population consisted of 64,428 women and men with no prior fracture (mean age 63.7 years), 858 with prior high-trauma fractures (mean age 65.1 years), and 14,758 with prior low-trauma fractures (mean age 67.2 years). Mean Z-scores for those with any prior high-trauma fracture were significantly lower than in those without prior fracture (P < 0.001) and similar to those with prior low-trauma fracture. Median observation time for incident fractures was 8.8 years (total 729,069 person-years). Any prior high-trauma fracture was significantly associated with increased risk for incident major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) (adjusted HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.08–1.59) as was prior low-trauma fracture (adjusted HR 1.55, 95% CI 1.47–1.63), and there was no significant difference between the two groups (prior trauma versus low-trauma fracture P = 0.093). A similar pattern was seen when incident MOF was studied in relation to prior hip fracture or prior MOF, or when the outcome was incident hip fracture or any incident fracture. Conclusions: High-trauma and low-trauma fractures showed similar relationships with low BMD and future fracture risk. This supports the inclusion of high-trauma fractures in clinical assessment for underlying osteoporosis and in the evaluation for intervention to reduce future fracture risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Little is known about post-acute care following hip fracture surgery. We investigated discharge destinations from surgical hospitals for nine Canadian provinces. We identified significant heterogeneity in discharge patterns across provinces suggesting different post-acute recovery pathways. Further work is required to determine the impact on patient outcomes and health system costs. Introduction: To examine discharge destinations by provinces in Canada, adjusting for patient, injury, and care characteristics. Methods: We analyzed population-based hospital discharge abstracts from a national administrative database for community-dwelling patients who underwent hip fracture surgery between 2004 and 2012 in Canada. Discharge destination was categorized as rehabilitation, home, acute care, and continuing care. Multinomial logistic regression modeling compared proportions of discharge to rehabilitation, acute care, and continuing care versus home between each province and Ontario. Adjusted risk differences and risk ratios were estimated. Results: Of 111,952 previously community-dwelling patients aged 65 years or older, 22.5% were discharged to rehabilitation, 31.6% to home, 27.0% to acute care, and 18.2% to continuing care, with significant variation across provinces (p < 0.001). The proportion of discharge to rehabilitation ranged from 2.4% in British Columbia to 41.0% in Ontario while the proportion discharged home ranged from 20.3% in Prince Edward Island to 52.2% in British Columbia. The proportion of discharge to acute care ranged from 15.2% in Ontario to 58.8% in Saskatchewan while the proportion discharged to continuing care ranged from 9.3% in Manitoba and Prince Edward Island to 22.9% in New Brunswick. Adjusting for hospital type changed the direction of the provincial effect on discharge to continuing care in two provinces, but statistical significance remained consistent with the primary analysis. Conclusions: Discharge destination from the surgical hospital after hip fracture is highly variable across nine Canadian provinces. Further work is required to determine the impact of this heterogeneity on patient outcomes and health system costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: In a large clinical registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada, FRAX predicted incident MOF and hip fracture from 1 to 15 years following baseline assessment. A simple linear rescaling of FRAX outputs seems useful for predicting both short- and long-term fracture risk in this population. Introduction: FRAX® estimates 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture. We examined FRAX predictions over intervals shorter and longer than 10 years. Methods: Using a population-based clinical registry for Manitoba, Canada, we identified 62,275 women and 6455 men 40 years and older with baseline dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans and FRAX scores. Incident MOF and hip fracture were assessed up to 15 years from population-based data. We assessed agreement between estimated fracture probability from 1 to 15 years using linearly rescaled FRAX scores and observed cumulative fracture probability. The gradient of risk for FRAX probability and incident fracture was examined overall and for 5-year intervals. Results: FRAX predicted incident MOF and hip fracture for all time intervals. There was no attenuation in the gradient of risk for MOF even for years >10. Gradient of risk was slightly lower for hip fracture prediction in years >10 vs years <5, though HRs remained high. Linear agreement was seen in the relationships between observed vs predicted (rescaled) FRAX probabilities ( R 0.95-1.00). Among women, there was near-perfect linearity in MOF predictions. Deviations from linearity, with a slightly higher observed than predicted MOF probability, were most evident in the first years following a fracture event and after 10 years for hip fracture prediction in women using FRAX with BMD. Simulations showed that results were robust to large differences in fracture rates and moderate differences in mortality rates. Conclusions: FRAX predicts incident MOF and hip fracture up to 15 years and could be adapted to predict fracture over time periods shorter and longer term than 10 years in populations with fracture and mortality epidemiology similar to Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Physician-billing claims databases can be used to determine the incidence of fractures in the community. This study tested three algorithms designed to accurately and reliably identify fractures from a physician-billing claims database and concluded that they were useful for identifying all types of fractures, except vertebral, sacral, and coccyx fractures. Introduction: To develop and validate algorithms that identify fracture events from a physician-billing claims database (PCDs). Methods: Three algorithms were developed using physician's specialty, diagnostic, and medical service codes used in a PCD from the province of Quebec. Algorithm validity was assessed via calculation of positive predictive values (PPV; via verification of a sample of algorithm-identified cases with hospitalization files) and sensitivities (via cross-referencing respective algorithm-identified fracture cases with a well-characterized fracture cohort). Results: PPV and sensitivity varied across fracture sites. For most fracture sites, the PPV with algorithm 3 was higher than with algorithms 1 or 2. Except for knee fracture, the PPVs ranged from 0.81 to 0.96. Sensitivities were low at the vertebral, sacral, and coccyx sites (0.40-0.50), but high at all other fracture sites. For 95% of fractures, the fracture site identified by algorithm agreed with the fracture site from patients' medical records. Fracture dates identified by algorithm were within 2 days of the actual fracture date in 88% of fracture cases. Among cases identified by algorithm 3 to have had an open reduction ( N = 461), 95% underwent surgery according to their respective medical charts. Conclusion: Algorithms using PCDs are accurate and reliable for identifying incident fractures associated with osteoporosis-related fracture sites. The identification of these fractures in the community is important for helping to estimate the burden associated with osteoporosis and the utility of programs designed to reduce the rates of fragility fracture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]