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Introduction: Vaccination has significantly reduced morbidity and mortality resulting from rotavirus infection worldwide. However, rotavirus vaccine efficacy (VE) appears to wane over the first 2 years since vaccination, particularly in developing countries. Statistical methods for detecting VE waning and estimating its rate have been used in a few studies, but comparisons of methods for evaluating VE waning have not yet been performed. In this work we present and compare three methods - Durham's method, Tian's method, and time-dependent covariate (TDC) method - based on generalizations of the Cox proportional hazard model., Methods: We developed a new stochastic agent-based simulation model to generate data from a hypothetical rotavirus vaccine trial where the protective efficacy of the vaccine may vary over time. Input parameters to the simulation model were obtained from studies on rotavirus infections in four developing countries. We applied each of the methods to four simulated datasets and compared the type-1 error probabilities and the powers of the resulting statistical tests. We also compared estimated and true values of VE over time., Results: Durham's method had the highest power of detecting true VE waning of the three methods. This method also provided quite accurate estimates of VE in each period and of the per-period drop in VE., Conclusions: Durham's method is somewhat more powerful than the other two Cox proportional hazards model-based methods for detecting VE waning and provides more information about the temporal behavior of VE.

Background: A correlate of protection for rotavirus gastroenteritis would facilitate rapid assessment of vaccination strategies and the next generation of rotavirus vaccines. We aimed to quantify a threshold of postvaccine serum antirotavirus immunoglobulin A (IgA) as an individual-level immune correlate of protection against rotavirus gastroenteritis., Methods: Individual-level data on 5074 infants in 9 GlaxoSmithKline Rotarix Phase 2/3 clinical trials from 16 countries were pooled. Cox proportional hazard models were fit to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) describing the relationship between IgA thresholds and occurrence of rotavirus gastroenteritis., Results: Seroconversion (IgA ≥ 20 U/mL) conferred substantial protection against any and severe rotavirus gastroenteritis to age 1 year. In low child mortality settings, seroconversion provided near perfect protection against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis (HR, 0.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], .01-.31). In high child mortality settings, seroconversion dramatically reduced the risk of severe rotavirus gastroenteritis (HR, 0.46; 95% CI, .25-.86). As IgA threshold increased, risk of rotavirus gastroenteritis generally decreased. A given IgA threshold provided better protection in low compared to high child mortality settings., Discussion: Postvaccination antirotavirus IgA is a valuable correlate of protection against rotavirus gastroenteritis to age 1 year. Seroconversion provides an informative threshold for assessing rotavirus vaccine performance., (Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2020.)

Background: Rotavirus is the leading cause of severe diarrhea among children worldwide, and vaccines can reduce morbidity and mortality by 50-98%. The test-negative control (TNC) study design is increasingly used for evaluating the effectiveness of vaccines against rotavirus and other vaccine-preventable diseases. In this study design, symptomatic patients who seek medical care are tested for the pathogen of interest. Those who test positive (negative) are classified as cases (controls)., Methods: We use a probability model to evaluate the bias of estimates of rotavirus vaccine effectiveness (VE) against rotavirus diarrhea resulting in hospitalization in the presence of possible confounding and selection biases due to differences in the propensity of seeking medical care (PSMC) between vaccinated and unvaccinated children., Results: The TNC-based VE estimate corrects for confounding bias when the confounder's effects on the probabilities of rotavirus and non-rotavirus related hospitalizations are equal. If this condition is not met, then the estimated VE may be substantially biased. The bias is more severe in low-income countries, where VE is known to be lower. Under our model, differences in PSMC between vaccinated and unvaccinated children do not result in selection bias when the TNC study design is used., Conclusions: In practice, one can expect the association of PSMC (or other potential confounders) with the probabilities of rotavirus and non-rotavirus related hospitalization to be similar, in which case the confounding effects will only result in small bias in the VE estimate from TNC studies. The results of this work, along with those of our previous paper, confirm the TNC design can be expected to provide reliable estimates of rotavirus VE in both high- and low-income countries., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Rotavirus disease rates dramatically declined among children <5 years of age since the rotavirus vaccine was introduced in 2006; population-level impacts remain to be fully elucidated., Methods: Data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project State Inpatient Databases were used to conduct a time-series analysis of monthly hospital discharges across age groups for acute gastroenteritis and rotavirus from 2000 to 2013. Rate ratios were calculated comparing prevaccine and postvaccine eras., Results: Following vaccine introduction, a decrease in rotavirus hospitalizations occurred with a shift toward biennial patterns across all ages. The 0-4-year age group experienced the largest decrease in rotavirus hospitalizations (rate ratio, 0.14; 95% confidence interval, .09-.23). The 5-19-year and 20-59-year age groups experienced significant declines in rotavirus hospitalization rates overall; the even postvaccine calendar years were characterized by progressively lower rates, and the odd postvaccine years were associated with reductions in rates that diminished over time. Those aged ≥60 years experienced the smallest change in rotavirus hospitalization rates overall, with significant reductions in even postvaccine years compared with prevaccine years (rate ratio, 0.51; 95% confidence interval, .39-.66)., Conclusions: Indirect impacts of infant rotavirus vaccination are apparent in the emergence of biennial patterns in rotavirus hospitalizations that extend to all age groups ineligible for vaccination. These observations are consistent with the notion that young children are of primary importance in disease transmission and that the initial postvaccine period of dramatic population-wide impacts will be followed by more complex incidence patterns across the age range in the long term., (© The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Estimation of the effectiveness of rotavirus vaccines via the test-negative control study design has gained popularity over the past few years. In this study design, children with severe diarrhea who test positive for rotavirus infection are considered as cases, while children who test negative serve as controls. We use a simple probability model to evaluate and compare the test-negative control and the traditional case-control designs with respect to the bias of resulting estimates of rotavirus vaccine effectiveness (VE). Comparisons are performed under two scenarios, corresponding to studies performed in high-income and low-income countries. We consider two potential sources of bias: (a) misclassification bias resulting from imperfect sensitivity and specificity of the test used to diagnose rotavirus infection, and (b) selection bias associated with possible effect of rotavirus vaccination on the probability of contracting severe non-rotavirus diarrhea. Our results suggest that both sources of bias may produce VE estimates with substantial bias. Particularly, lack of perfect specificity is associated with severe negative bias. For example, if the specificity of the diagnostic test is 90% then VE estimates from both types of case-control studies may under-estimate the true VE by more than 20%. If the vaccine protects children against non-rotavirus diarrhea then VE estimates from test-negative control studies may be close to zero even though the true VE is 50%. However, the sensitivity and specificity of the enzyme immunoassay test currently used to diagnose rotavirus infections are both over 99%, and there is no solid evidence that the existing rotavirus vaccines affect the rates of non-rotavirus diarrhea. We therefore conclude that the test-negative control study design is a convenient and reliable alternative for estimation of rotavirus VE., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: In 2006 and 2008, two new rotavirus vaccines (RotaTeq [RV5] and Rotarix [RV1]) were introduced in the United States. US data on intussusception have been mostly related to RV5, with limited data on RV1., Methods: We assessed intussusception events following RV1 reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), a US national passive surveillance system, during February 2008-December 2014. We conducted a self-controlled risk interval analysis using Poisson regression to estimate the daily reporting ratio (DRR) of intussusception after the first 2 doses of RV1 comparing average daily reports 3-6 versus 0-2 days after vaccination. We calculated the excess risk of intussusception per 100,000 vaccinations based on DRRs and background rates of intussusception. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess effects of differential reporting completeness and inaccuracy of baseline rates., Results: VAERS received 108 confirmed insusceptible reports after RV1. A significant clustering was observed on days 3-8 after does1 (p=0.001) and days 2-7 after dose 2 (p=0.001). The DRR comparing the 3-6 day and the 0-2 day periods after RV1 dose 1 was 7.5 (95% CI=2.3, 24.6), translating to an excess risk of 1.6 (95% CI=0.3, 5.8) per 100,000 vaccinations. The DRR was elevated but not significant after dose 2 (2.4 [95% CI=0.8,7.5]). The excess risk ranged from 1.2 to 2.8 per 100,000 in sensitivity analysis., Conclusions: We observed a significant increased risk of intussusception 3-6 days after dose 1 of RV1. The estimated small number of intussusception cases attributable to RV1 is outweighed by the benefits of rotavirus vaccination., (Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: In 2006 and 2008, 2 new rotavirus vaccines (RotaTeq [RV5] and Rotarix [RV1]) were introduced in the United States., Methods: We assessed intussusception events reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System from February 2006 through April 2012 for RV5 and from April 2008 through April 2012 for RV1. For RV5, we conducted a self-controlled risk interval analysis using Poisson regression to estimate the daily reporting ratio (DRR) of intussusception comparing average daily reports 3 to 6 versus 0 to 2 days after vaccination. We calculated reporting rate differences based on DRRs and background rates of intussusception. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess effects of differential reporting completeness and inaccuracy of baseline rates. Few reports were submitted after RV1, allowing only a descriptive analysis., Results: The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System received 584 confirmed intussusception reports after RV5 and 52 after RV1, with clustering 3 to 6 days after both vaccines. The DRR comparing the 3- to 6-day and the 0- to 2-day periods after RV5 dose 1 was 3.75 (95% confidence interval = 1.90 to 7.39). There was no significant increase in reporting after dose 2 or dose 3. Over all 3 doses, the excess risk of intussusception was 0.79 events (95% confidence interval = -0.04 to 1.62) per 100 000 vaccinations. From the sensitivity analyses, we conclude that under a worst-case scenario, the DRR could be 5.00 and excess risk per 100 000 doses could be 1.36., Conclusions: We observed a persistent clustering of reported intussusception events 3 to 6 days after the first dose of RV5 vaccination. This clustering could translate to a small increased risk of intussusception, which is outweighed by the benefits of rotavirus vaccination.

Highlights: [•] We examine properties of the “case test-negative” design. [•] Vaccine effectiveness estimates from such studies appear valid under general assumptions. [•] If influenza and non-influenza infections differ in disease severity then effectiveness estimates may be biased. [•] If acute respiratory viral infections interact via transient non-specific immunity, vaccine effectiveness estimates from case test-negative studies are biased, but the bias will be non-trivial only if influenza incidence is extremely high and the duration of the transient non-specific immunity is long. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite the success of rotavirus vaccines over the last decade, rotavirus remains a leading cause of severe diarrheal disease among young children. Further progress in reducing the burden of disease is inhibited, in part, by vaccine underperformance in certain settings. Early trials suggested that oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), when administered concomitantly with rotavirus vaccine, reduces rotavirus seroconversion rates after the first rotavirus dose with modest or nonsignificant interference after completion of the full rotavirus vaccine course. Our study aimed to identify a range of individual-level characteristics, including concomitant receipt of OPV, that affect rotavirus vaccine immunogenicity in high- and low-child-mortality settings, controlling for individual- and country-level factors. Our central hypothesis was that OPV administered concomitantly with rotavirus vaccine reduced rotavirus vaccine immunogenicity.Methods and Findings: Pooled, individual-level data from GlaxoSmithKline's Phase II and III clinical trials of the monovalent rotavirus vaccine (RV1), Rotarix, were analyzed, including 7,280 vaccinated infants (5-17 weeks of age at first vaccine dose) from 22 trials and 33 countries/territories (5 countries/territories with high, 13 with moderately low, and 15 with very low child mortality). Two standard markers for immune response were examined including antirotavirus immunoglobulin A (IgA) seroconversion (defined as the appearance of serum antirotavirus IgA antibodies in subjects initially seronegative) and serum antirotavirus IgA titer, both collected approximately 4-12 weeks after administration of the last rotavirus vaccine dose. Mixed-effect logistic regression and mixed-effect linear regression of log-transformed data were used to identify individual- and country-level predictors of seroconversion (dichotomous) and antibody titer (continuous), respectively. Infants in high-child-mortality settings had lower odds of seroconverting compared with infants in low-child-mortality settings (odds ratio [OR] = 0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43-0.53, p < 0.001). Similarly, among those who seroconverted, infants in high-child-mortality settings had lower IgA titers compared with infants in low-child-mortality settings (mean difference [β] = 0.83, 95% CI 0.77-0.90, p < 0.001). Infants who received OPV concomitantly with both their first and their second doses of rotavirus vaccine had 0.63 times the odds of seroconverting (OR = 0.63, 95% CI 0.47-0.84, p = 0.002) compared with infants who received OPV but not concomitantly with either dose. In contrast, among infants who seroconverted, OPV concomitantly administered with both the first and second rotavirus vaccine doses was found to be positively associated with antirotavirus IgA titer (β = 1.28, 95% CI 1.07-1.53, p = 0.009). Our findings may have some limitations in terms of generalizability to routine use of rotavirus vaccine because the analysis was limited to healthy infants receiving RV1 in clinical trial settings.Conclusions: Our findings suggest that OPV given concomitantly with RV1 was a substantial contributor to reduced antirotavirus IgA seroconversion, and this interference was apparent after the second vaccine dose of RV1, as with the original clinical trials that our reanalysis is based on. However, our findings do suggest that the forthcoming withdrawal of OPV from the infant immunization schedule globally has the potential to improve RV1 performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]